2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Frenchrepublican]

Apparently Cook thinks Troy Balderson isn’t vulnerable anymore.

And he is right

But Ann Wagner is vulnerable how?

I would rate the race as Lean R at the moment, the main difference is that OH 12 has a large chuck of rural and exurban areas while MO-2 is almost entirely suburban.

Maybe NC-9 is a better comparison. It barely changed in redistricting, and McCready isn’t running again. If Balderson is safe, so is Bishop.

Yeah, NC-9 and OH 12th have some similarities
I think both are Safe R for next year

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Apparently Cook thinks Troy Balderson isn’t vulnerable anymore.

And he is right

But Ann Wagner is vulnerable how?

I would rate the race as Lean R at the moment, the main difference is that OH 12 has a large chuck of rural and exurban areas while MO-2 is almost entirely suburban.

Maybe NC-9 is a better comparison. It barely changed in redistricting, and McCready isn’t running again. If Balderson is safe, so is Bishop.

Not in the slightest. Uber white rural areas of Ohio hardly compare to a bunch of D leaning black plurality counties in the South.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Republican internal shows Republican up by 9 in IL-06:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1209303101594841088?s=20

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Republican internal shows Republican up by 9 in IL-06:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1209303101594841088?s=20

LOL Likely D.

Ives is possibly the worst fit for that district.

[Bidenworth2020]

Republican internal shows Republican up by 9 in IL-06:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1209303101594841088?s=20

LOL Likely D.

Ives is possibly the worst fit for that district.

Think there is something funky going on with this poll though- it still has dems up 48-43 on the generic ballot.

[Gracile]

Republican internal shows Republican up by 9 in IL-06:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1209303101594841088?s=20

LOL Likely D.

Ives is possibly the worst fit for that district.

Think there is something funky going on with this poll though- it still has dems up 48-43 on the generic ballot.

I wonder if this is one of those polls where they ask about respondents' congressional preferences first, and then ask a series of (loaded) questions before getting into the horse race. It might explain why there is such a big discrepancy. They didn't release any of their full data, so it's hard to tell.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Republican internal shows Republican up by 9 in IL-06:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1209303101594841088?s=20

LOL Likely D.

Ives is possibly the worst fit for that district.

Think there is something funky going on with this poll though- it still has dems up 48-43 on the generic ballot.

Yep. Ives is too much of a right wing nut to be outperforming any Republican in that district... she's definitely worse than generic R.

[Frenchrepublican]

Republican internal shows Republican up by 9 in IL-06:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1209303101594841088?s=20

This poll doesn't make any sense. Ives is going to lose by double digits.

[wbrocks67]

OK-05
Agree with Horn's vote to impeach Trump? 47% approve / 49% disapprove
Horn job approval: 45/42 (+3)
Vote to re-elect Horn: 40% yes, 45% R challenger

These are actually very good #s for OK-05, so if it's playing like this in a Trump +double digit district then this is nowhere near the calamity for Dems that pundits and the media are making it out to be.

https://oklahoman.com/article/5650629/poll-shows-even-split-over-horns-votes-to-impeach-trump

[Frenchrepublican]

OK-05
Agree with Horn's vote to impeach Trump? 47% approve / 49% disapprove
Horn job approval: 45/42 (+3)
Vote to re-elect Horn: 40% yes, 45% R challenger

These are actually very good #s for OK-05, so if it's playing like this in a Trump +double digit district then this is nowhere near the calamity for Dems that pundits and the media are making it out to be.

https://oklahoman.com/article/5650629/poll-shows-even-split-over-horns-votes-to-impeach-trump

Also : Lisle said, “With a 53% approval rating in (the 5th Congressional District), President Donald Trump is relatively popular, although less popular than he is statewide, where his approval rating is over 60%. Trump is also leading a generic (Democratic) challenger by 10 points on the ballot test.”

[Frenchrepublican]

OK-05
Agree with Horn's vote to impeach Trump? 47% approve / 49% disapprove
Horn job approval: 45/42 (+3)
Vote to re-elect Horn: 40% yes, 45% R challenger

These are actually very good #s for OK-05, so if it's playing like this in a Trump +double digit district then this is nowhere near the calamity for Dems that pundits and the media are making it out to be.

https://oklahoman.com/article/5650629/poll-shows-even-split-over-horns-votes-to-impeach-trump

These datas are actually pretty good for the GOP, Trump is leading by 10, his approval rate is at +11 and a republican challenger is already leading by 5 in the House race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Businessman Joe Profit (a great name for his occupation), who was running for the Republican nomination in GA-07, switches to GA-06 instead.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

OK-05
Agree with Horn's vote to impeach Trump? 47% approve / 49% disapprove
Horn job approval: 45/42 (+3)
Vote to re-elect Horn: 40% yes, 45% R challenger

These are actually very good #s for OK-05, so if it's playing like this in a Trump +double digit district then this is nowhere near the calamity for Dems that pundits and the media are making it out to be.

https://oklahoman.com/article/5650629/poll-shows-even-split-over-horns-votes-to-impeach-trump

These datas are actually pretty good for the GOP, Trump is leading by 10, his approval rate is at +11 and a republican challenger is already leading by 5 in the House race.

If opposition to impeachment is only +1 in a Trump +double digit district, then it means impeachment isn't backfiring on the Democrats and they're probably going to hold the house.

Not actually great news for them. It also shows that Horn isn't DOA.

[Brittain33]

OK-05
Agree with Horn's vote to impeach Trump? 47% approve / 49% disapprove
Horn job approval: 45/42 (+3)
Vote to re-elect Horn: 40% yes, 45% R challenger

These are actually very good #s for OK-05, so if it's playing like this in a Trump +double digit district then this is nowhere near the calamity for Dems that pundits and the media are making it out to be.

https://oklahoman.com/article/5650629/poll-shows-even-split-over-horns-votes-to-impeach-trump

These datas are actually pretty good for the GOP, Trump is leading by 10, his approval rate is at +11 and a republican challenger is already leading by 5 in the House race.

If Trump is leading by 10 in a district he won by 13, depending on who the undecideds are that’s probably *not* good news for him (even if Horn may lose to an R). He can’t afford to give back any votes at all in 2020.

[Pollster]

OK-05
Agree with Horn's vote to impeach Trump? 47% approve / 49% disapprove
Horn job approval: 45/42 (+3)
Vote to re-elect Horn: 40% yes, 45% R challenger

These are actually very good #s for OK-05, so if it's playing like this in a Trump +double digit district then this is nowhere near the calamity for Dems that pundits and the media are making it out to be.

https://oklahoman.com/article/5650629/poll-shows-even-split-over-horns-votes-to-impeach-trump

I don't know this district too well, but based on these numbers it looks fairly similar to Kansas, in which a majority of voters default to Republicans but a larger than average number of those voters can be persuaded to vote for Democrats under the right circumstances. Horn can probably narrowly win here.

[Pollster]

Republican internal shows Republican up by 9 in IL-06:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1209303101594841088?s=20

LOL Likely D.

Ives is possibly the worst fit for that district.

Think there is something funky going on with this poll though- it still has dems up 48-43 on the generic ballot.

I wonder if this is one of those polls where they ask about respondents' congressional preferences first, and then ask a series of (loaded) questions before getting into the horse race. It might explain why there is such a big discrepancy. They didn't release any of their full data, so it's hard to tell.

Not necessarily loaded questions - moreso a series of positive arguments in favor of the candidates, with no potential attacks from or positive arguments for the opponent presented. Also possible they tested attacks on the opponent as well. Pollsters do this, usually early in the campaign, to test what the candidate's highest possible ceiling is. If that's what we're seeing here, incredibly bad news for Ives.

[Landslide Lyndon]

OK-05
Agree with Horn's vote to impeach Trump? 47% approve / 49% disapprove
Horn job approval: 45/42 (+3)
Vote to re-elect Horn: 40% yes, 45% R challenger

These are actually very good #s for OK-05, so if it's playing like this in a Trump +double digit district then this is nowhere near the calamity for Dems that pundits and the media are making it out to be.

https://oklahoman.com/article/5650629/poll-shows-even-split-over-horns-votes-to-impeach-trump

I don't know this district too well, but based on these numbers it looks fairly similar to Kansas, in which a majority of voters default to Republicans but a larger than average number of those voters can be persuaded to vote for Democrats under the right circumstances. Horn can probably narrowly win here.

This district also voted for Edmondson by double digits.

[Non Swing Voter]

so is the current thinking that Republicans might win back some of the low hanging fruit like Horn, Brindisi, Van Drew, etc. but that Democrats are certain to win 2 districts in North Carolina + a couple in Texas, Georgia, etc., so 2020 will be a wash and Democrats will maintain a sizable majority in the House?

[Nyvin]

so is the current thinking that Republicans might win back some of the low hanging fruit like Horn, Brindisi, Van Drew, etc. but that Democrats are certain to win 2 districts in North Carolina + a couple in Texas, Georgia, etc., so 2020 will be a wash and Democrats will maintain a sizable majority in the House?

Something along those lines seems to be shaping up.   A good indicator is all the Republican retirements.

[wesmoorenerd]

so is the current thinking that Republicans might win back some of the low hanging fruit like Horn, Brindisi, Van Drew, etc. but that Democrats are certain to win 2 districts in North Carolina + a couple in Texas, Georgia, etc., so 2020 will be a wash and Democrats will maintain a sizable majority in the House?

Consider this: RCP pegs the GCB at D+6.8 right now. There's a whole twelve Republican held districts that Trump either lost or won by less than 6.8:

NC-02 (redistricted)
NC-06 (redistricted)
NY-24
TX-23
PA-01
FL-25 (doesn't really fit the bill because of downballot Cubans sadly)
NE-02
NJ-02 (HARDLY a safe district for the GOP)
IL-13
TX-24
GA-07
OH-01

Meanwhile, there's only eight Democratic held districts that Trump won by more than 6.8:

MN-07 (🅱️eterson)
NY-22
OK-05
SC-01
ME-02
NM-02
NY-11
PA-08 (🅱️artwright)

Not to mention a few more districts that fall outside of those bounds on both sides but are still very winnable: TX-22, PA-10, NY-02, TX-31, TX-10, TX-21, and the weird three way race in MI-03 for the Dems, UT-04, NY-19, NJ-03, IA-01, IL-14, IA-03, IA-02, MI-08, VA-02, and VA-07 for the GOP, etc.

Dems left a lot on the table in 2018, and to act like they don't have room to grow in 2020 would be foolish. In fact, here's your hot take of the day: Dems are going to net seats. You heard it here first, folks.

[Dr. MB]

so is the current thinking that Republicans might win back some of the low hanging fruit like Horn, Brindisi, Van Drew, etc. but that Democrats are certain to win 2 districts in North Carolina + a couple in Texas, Georgia, etc., so 2020 will be a wash and Democrats will maintain a sizable majority in the House?

Consider this: RCP pegs the GCB at D+6.8 right now. There's a whole twelve Republican held districts that Trump either lost or won by less than 6.8:

NC-02 (redistricted)
NC-06 (redistricted)
NY-24
TX-23
PA-01
FL-25 (doesn't really fit the bill because of downballot Cubans sadly)
NE-02
NJ-02 (HARDLY a safe district for the GOP)
IL-13
TX-24
GA-07
OH-01

Meanwhile, there's only eight Democratic held districts that Trump won by more than 6.8:

MN-07 (🅱️eterson)
NY-22
OK-05
SC-01
ME-02
NM-02
NY-11
PA-08 (🅱️artwright)

Not to mention a few more districts that fall outside of those bounds on both sides but are still very winnable: TX-22, PA-10, NY-02, TX-31, TX-10, TX-21, and the weird three way race in MI-03 for the Dems, UT-04, NY-19, NJ-03, IA-01, IL-14, IA-03, IA-02, MI-08, VA-02, and VA-07 for the GOP, etc.

Dems left a lot on the table in 2018, and to act like they don't have room to grow in 2020 would be foolish. In fact, here's your hot take of the day: Dems are going to net seats. You heard it here first, folks.

*folx

[Frenchrepublican]

OK-05
Agree with Horn's vote to impeach Trump? 47% approve / 49% disapprove
Horn job approval: 45/42 (+3)
Vote to re-elect Horn: 40% yes, 45% R challenger

These are actually very good #s for OK-05, so if it's playing like this in a Trump +double digit district then this is nowhere near the calamity for Dems that pundits and the media are making it out to be.

https://oklahoman.com/article/5650629/poll-shows-even-split-over-horns-votes-to-impeach-trump

These datas are actually pretty good for the GOP, Trump is leading by 10, his approval rate is at +11 and a republican challenger is already leading by 5 in the House race.

If Trump is leading by 10 in a district he won by 13, depending on who the undecideds are that’s probably *not* good news for him (even if Horn may lose to an R). He can’t afford to give back any votes at all in 2020.

OK-5 is trending against republicans as it's a fairly urban/suburban district, so I don't see why Trump winning it by 10 is a bad thing, he could easily counterbalance the ground lost here by winning OK-2 by a even larger margin than in 2016, if Trump wins OK-5 by 10 he is probably losing the PV by 2 at worst.
Anyway hard to see how the republicans fail to win back OK-5 if Trump is winning it by double digits.

[Frenchrepublican]

so is the current thinking that Republicans might win back some of the low hanging fruit like Horn, Brindisi, Van Drew, etc. but that Democrats are certain to win 2 districts in North Carolina + a couple in Texas, Georgia, etc., so 2020 will be a wash and Democrats will maintain a sizable majority in the House?

If Trump is defeated next year by a small margin, it's likely the most plausible thinking.

GOP wins : MN-7, NY-22, SC-1, OK-5, NM-2, maybe NY-19 and IA-1
GOP loses : NC-2, NC-6, TX-23, GA-7 and maybe TX-24

[Non Swing Voter]

so is the current thinking that Republicans might win back some of the low hanging fruit like Horn, Brindisi, Van Drew, etc. but that Democrats are certain to win 2 districts in North Carolina + a couple in Texas, Georgia, etc., so 2020 will be a wash and Democrats will maintain a sizable majority in the House?

Consider this: RCP pegs the GCB at D+6.8 right now. There's a whole twelve Republican held districts that Trump either lost or won by less than 6.8:

NC-02 (redistricted)
NC-06 (redistricted)
NY-24
TX-23
PA-01
FL-25 (doesn't really fit the bill because of downballot Cubans sadly)
NE-02
NJ-02 (HARDLY a safe district for the GOP)
IL-13
TX-24
GA-07
OH-01

Meanwhile, there's only eight Democratic held districts that Trump won by more than 6.8:

MN-07 (🅱️eterson)
NY-22
OK-05
SC-01
ME-02
NM-02
NY-11
PA-08 (🅱️artwright)

Not to mention a few more districts that fall outside of those bounds on both sides but are still very winnable: TX-22, PA-10, NY-02, TX-31, TX-10, TX-21, and the weird three way race in MI-03 for the Dems, UT-04, NY-19, NJ-03, IA-01, IL-14, IA-03, IA-02, MI-08, VA-02, and VA-07 for the GOP, etc.

Dems left a lot on the table in 2018, and to act like they don't have room to grow in 2020 would be foolish. In fact, here's your hot take of the day: Dems are going to net seats. You heard it here first, folks.

I do think it's plausible that the Dems actually do pick up seats, mostly because their freshman class seems strong and because they have more guaranteed pickups than Republicans do (the two NC districts and TX-23 seem like definite pickups at this point).

[Skill and Chance]

so is the current thinking that Republicans might win back some of the low hanging fruit like Horn, Brindisi, Van Drew, etc. but that Democrats are certain to win 2 districts in North Carolina + a couple in Texas, Georgia, etc., so 2020 will be a wash and Democrats will maintain a sizable majority in the House?

Consider this: RCP pegs the GCB at D+6.8 right now. There's a whole twelve Republican held districts that Trump either lost or won by less than 6.8:

NC-02 (redistricted)
NC-06 (redistricted)
NY-24
TX-23
PA-01
FL-25 (doesn't really fit the bill because of downballot Cubans sadly)
NE-02
NJ-02 (HARDLY a safe district for the GOP)
IL-13
TX-24
GA-07
OH-01

Meanwhile, there's only eight Democratic held districts that Trump won by more than 6.8:

MN-07 (🅱️eterson)
NY-22
OK-05
SC-01
ME-02
NM-02
NY-11
PA-08 (🅱️artwright)

Not to mention a few more districts that fall outside of those bounds on both sides but are still very winnable: TX-22, PA-10, NY-02, TX-31, TX-10, TX-21, and the weird three way race in MI-03 for the Dems, UT-04, NY-19, NJ-03, IA-01, IL-14, IA-03, IA-02, MI-08, VA-02, and VA-07 for the GOP, etc.

Dems left a lot on the table in 2018, and to act like they don't have room to grow in 2020 would be foolish. In fact, here's your hot take of the day: Dems are going to net seats. You heard it here first, folks.

I do think it's plausible that the Dems actually do pick up seats, mostly because their freshman class seems strong and because they have more guaranteed pickups than Republicans do (the two NC districts and TX-23 seem like definite pickups at this point).

I think a Dem net pickup would require something more dramatic than just those seats.  Cartwright, Peterson, Brindisi, the open IA-02, etc. are going to flip unless the presidential election is a Dem blowout.  A Dem net gain would require something like every Republican-held seat involved in the Austin gerrymander flipping.