Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

If this was an isolated incident, I'd probably agree with you, but it just isn't. Republicans have consistently underperformed in general elections after 2020. This is part of a systemic issue with the GOP.

The only fly in the soup for all this is that the Presidential electorate is less Black and Upper Class than more obscure elections.

So Democrats might be having the same benefits as Republicans in the 1994-2014 period by relying on their Upper Class majorities in midterms and special elections, but Presidential Elections are a different thing.

However White Biden voters are not flipping no matter what they say in the opinion polls.

Do you know how much waiters and waitresses make 2.30 the rich got richer Sports and Celebrity that works for their Corporate Sports owners while the poor got poorer since the Great Recession of 2008

Michael Moore didn't come out of the Bill Clinton Admin where the Economy was good he came from the 2008 Great Recession, 2020 is called the Great Recession Pandemic

[Spectator]

Oof, I didn't expect such a blowout. That said, I don't think this has any implications for the 2024 prez election. Starts out as pure tossup or Tilt Biden.

Partly disagree. Obviously Trump will do much better than Kelly in the rurals, but I think the WOW margins are indicative of what we’ll see next year in a rematch.

Well tbf I think we've known for a while that Trump would/will be obliterated in the suburbs in 2024.

Yes, but I don’t think it was clear by exactly how much. In the 2020 Supreme Court race, Karofsky did worse in WOW than Biden ended up eventually doing in November, despite the fact that she won by landslide (aided obviously by the Democratic presidential primary). If Biden got similar (or probably even slightly better) margins in WOW next year as to what we saw last night, it doesn’t really matter much how well Trump/DeSantis do in the rurals.

She got a total of 41% of the votes in WOW. I think that’s the first time a Democrat has done that since Herb Kohl.

[wbrocks67]

Im doing a swing map and Milwaukee stands out...any idea why Janet didn't really overperform there even though she is doing so massively like everywhere else?

She did overperform... +46 is way higher than any recent liberal in a SC race, and even higher than Evers' +43.

[wbrocks67]

This is not a particularly impressive performance for Wisconsin Democrats. The WISC in 2020 was won by a similar margin by Wisconsin Democrats.

LMAO, the Liberal pulls an +11 win in Wisconsin during a Democratic president (and not on the same day as a presidential primary) and it's not "impressive"? Seriously go touch grass.

[wbrocks67]

It's odd to me that people see the Nov 22 results, the special election results, and then results like these (and all special elex this year basically) and still have the audacity to say it has no bearing on Trump/Biden in 2024.

[oldtimer]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

If this was an isolated incident, I'd probably agree with you, but it just isn't. Republicans have consistently underperformed in general elections after 2020. This is part of a systemic issue with the GOP.

The only fly in the soup for all this is that the Presidential electorate is less Black and Upper Class than more obscure elections.

So Democrats might be having the same benefits as Republicans in the 1994-2014 period by relying on their Upper Class majorities in midterms and special elections, but Presidential Elections are a different thing.

However White Biden voters are not flipping no matter what they say in the opinion polls.

Do you know how much waiters and waitresses make 2.30 the rich got richer Sports and Celebrity that works for their Corporate Sports owners while the poor got poorer since the Great Recession of 2008

Michael Moore didn't come out of the Bill Clinton Admin where the Economy was good he came from the 2008 Great Recession, 2020 is called the Great Recession Pandemic

Yeah, and here's the deal:

Democrats are in charge since then, so the Poor blame Democrats for their problems more often than Republicans these days.

Also Democrats being the party of the Rich makes them uncool with the Poor.

Its the same problem Republicans had in the past, their coalition of the Upper Class and Lower Class Whites was unstable.

It gave them big majorities as long as it lasted, but it was going to collapse because the Rich and the Poor hate each other.

Any dominance doesn't last long in politics, because the groups that make a majority don't like each other.

Currently Democrats are the old Nixon-Reagan coalition just with Minorities instead of Lower Class Whites, but Minorities hate Rich White people, so they are already defecting.

But the GOP needs to win 60% of non-Black minorities to win the Electoral College and the Senate, not the current 40%, so Democrats will continue to dominate for at least a few years more.

[wbrocks67]

Also once again, abortion rights are an insanely huge motivating factor for voters. Pundits in shambles yet again.

[oldtimer]

It's odd to me that people see the Nov 22 results, the special election results, and then results like these (and all special elex this year basically) and still have the audacity to say it has no bearing on Trump/Biden in 2024.

It tells you of the relevant position of states in relation to each other.

By knowing for example how more democrat Wisconsin is relative to Iowa, if you know that and have a Selzer Iowa poll, then you can guess not only Iowa but Wisconsin too.

[Sir Mohamed]

Oof, I didn't expect such a blowout. That said, I don't think this has any implications for the 2024 prez election. Starts out as pure tossup or Tilt Biden.

Partly disagree. Obviously Trump will do much better than Kelly in the rurals, but I think the WOW margins are indicative of what we’ll see next year in a rematch.

Biden might very well do better in WI than 2020, though a D-shift of more than 1-2 pts. would actually indicate Biden won by more than he did last time at the national level.

[Spectator]

Oof, I didn't expect such a blowout. That said, I don't think this has any implications for the 2024 prez election. Starts out as pure tossup or Tilt Biden.

Partly disagree. Obviously Trump will do much better than Kelly in the rurals, but I think the WOW margins are indicative of what we’ll see next year in a rematch.

Biden might very well do better in WI than 2020, though a D-shift of more than 1-2 pts. would actually indicate Biden won by more than he did last time at the national level.

Well, yes, that’s exactly what I think will happen. That also more often than not happens in rematches. The original victor usually wins a rematch by a wider margin.

[DaleCooper]

This is not a particularly impressive performance for Wisconsin Democrats. The WISC in 2020 was won by a similar margin by Wisconsin Democrats.

LMAO, the Liberal pulls an +11 win in Wisconsin during a Democratic president (and not on the same day as a presidential primary) and it's not "impressive"? Seriously go touch grass.

His posts read like AI.

[wbrocks67]

Oof, I didn't expect such a blowout. That said, I don't think this has any implications for the 2024 prez election. Starts out as pure tossup or Tilt Biden.

Partly disagree. Obviously Trump will do much better than Kelly in the rurals, but I think the WOW margins are indicative of what we’ll see next year in a rematch.

Biden might very well do better in WI than 2020, though a D-shift of more than 1-2 pts. would actually indicate Biden won by more than he did last time at the national level.

Well, yes, that’s exactly what I think will happen. That also more often than not happens in rematches. The original victor usually wins a rematch by a wider margin.

And Trump was essentially a proxy last year, especially, in the midterms, and all of the GOPs policies and his own grievances went down in flames, so I don't get why people think all of a sudden voters would suddenly be okay with those things again when Trump runs in a GE again.

[Benjamin Frank]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

If this was an isolated incident, I'd probably agree with you, but it just isn't. Republicans have consistently underperformed in general elections after 2020. This is part of a systemic issue with the GOP.

The only fly in the soup for all this is that the Presidential electorate is less Black and Upper Class than more obscure elections.

So Democrats might be having the same benefits as Republicans in the 1994-2014 period by relying on their Upper Class majorities in midterms and special elections, but Presidential Elections are a different thing.

However White Biden voters are not flipping no matter what they say in the opinion polls.

Do you know how much waiters and waitresses make 2.30 the rich got richer Sports and Celebrity that works for their Corporate Sports owners while the poor got poorer since the Great Recession of 2008

Michael Moore didn't come out of the Bill Clinton Admin where the Economy was good he came from the 2008 Great Recession, 2020 is called the Great Recession Pandemic

Yeah, and here's the deal:

Democrats are in charge since then, so the Poor blame Democrats for their problems more often than Republicans these days.

Also Democrats being the party of the Rich makes them uncool with the Poor.

Its the same problem Republicans had in the past, their coalition of the Upper Class and Lower Class Whites was unstable.

It gave them big majorities as long as it lasted, but it was going to collapse because the Rich and the Poor hate each other.

Any dominance doesn't last long in politics, because the groups that make a majority don't like each other.

Currently Democrats are the old Nixon-Reagan coalition just with Minorities instead of Lower Class Whites, but Minorities hate Rich White people, so they are already defecting.

But the GOP needs to win 60% of non-Black minorities to win the Electoral College and the Senate, not the current 40%, so Democrats will continue to dominate for at least a few years more.

How much voters view Democrats as 'the party of/for the rich, I have no idea, but overwhelmingly Democrats, Independents and Republicans view the Republicans as the party of/for the rich. So, if your theory is correct, at best for Republicans, there may be room for a third party.

Even the Republican defense of Trump in the New York State case is based on minimizing white collar/corporate crime.

Just because some stupid poor people fall for Trump's con that he's 'for the little guy' doesn't mean most people don't recognize the Republican party is by the rich, for the rich and of the rich.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Glad to see Wisconsin could have a shot at being a functioning representative democracy again. Hopefully the new court majority will swiftly throw out the gerrymandered maps before the legislature can pull off any impeachment bullsh*t.

[oldtimer]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

If this was an isolated incident, I'd probably agree with you, but it just isn't. Republicans have consistently underperformed in general elections after 2020. This is part of a systemic issue with the GOP.

The only fly in the soup for all this is that the Presidential electorate is less Black and Upper Class than more obscure elections.

So Democrats might be having the same benefits as Republicans in the 1994-2014 period by relying on their Upper Class majorities in midterms and special elections, but Presidential Elections are a different thing.

However White Biden voters are not flipping no matter what they say in the opinion polls.

Do you know how much waiters and waitresses make 2.30 the rich got richer Sports and Celebrity that works for their Corporate Sports owners while the poor got poorer since the Great Recession of 2008

Michael Moore didn't come out of the Bill Clinton Admin where the Economy was good he came from the 2008 Great Recession, 2020 is called the Great Recession Pandemic

Yeah, and here's the deal:

Democrats are in charge since then, so the Poor blame Democrats for their problems more often than Republicans these days.

Also Democrats being the party of the Rich makes them uncool with the Poor.

Its the same problem Republicans had in the past, their coalition of the Upper Class and Lower Class Whites was unstable.

It gave them big majorities as long as it lasted, but it was going to collapse because the Rich and the Poor hate each other.

Any dominance doesn't last long in politics, because the groups that make a majority don't like each other.

Currently Democrats are the old Nixon-Reagan coalition just with Minorities instead of Lower Class Whites, but Minorities hate Rich White people, so they are already defecting.

But the GOP needs to win 60% of non-Black minorities to win the Electoral College and the Senate, not the current 40%, so Democrats will continue to dominate for at least a few years more.

How much voters view Democrats as 'the party of/for the rich, I have no idea, but overwhelmingly Democrats, Independents and Republicans view the Republicans as the party of/for the rich. So, if your theory is correct, at best for Republicans, there may be room for a third party.

Even the Republican defense of Trump in the New York State case is based on minimizing white collar/corporate crime.

Just because some stupid poor people fall for Trump's con that he's 'for the little guy' doesn't mean most people don't recognize the Republican party is by the rich, for the rich and of the rich.

Democrats now dominate Congressional Districts with the highest incomes, Republicans with the lowest.

So public perception is already there.

Self awareness among the party ranks about who they represent might not be there yet, but Democrats pushing for SALT and Republicans pressuring Big Business means they are on course to do so.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/ali/status/1643436821655764994

[Benjamin Frank]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

If this was an isolated incident, I'd probably agree with you, but it just isn't. Republicans have consistently underperformed in general elections after 2020. This is part of a systemic issue with the GOP.

The only fly in the soup for all this is that the Presidential electorate is less Black and Upper Class than more obscure elections.

So Democrats might be having the same benefits as Republicans in the 1994-2014 period by relying on their Upper Class majorities in midterms and special elections, but Presidential Elections are a different thing.

However White Biden voters are not flipping no matter what they say in the opinion polls.

Do you know how much waiters and waitresses make 2.30 the rich got richer Sports and Celebrity that works for their Corporate Sports owners while the poor got poorer since the Great Recession of 2008

Michael Moore didn't come out of the Bill Clinton Admin where the Economy was good he came from the 2008 Great Recession, 2020 is called the Great Recession Pandemic

Yeah, and here's the deal:

Democrats are in charge since then, so the Poor blame Democrats for their problems more often than Republicans these days.

Also Democrats being the party of the Rich makes them uncool with the Poor.

Its the same problem Republicans had in the past, their coalition of the Upper Class and Lower Class Whites was unstable.

It gave them big majorities as long as it lasted, but it was going to collapse because the Rich and the Poor hate each other.

Any dominance doesn't last long in politics, because the groups that make a majority don't like each other.

Currently Democrats are the old Nixon-Reagan coalition just with Minorities instead of Lower Class Whites, but Minorities hate Rich White people, so they are already defecting.

But the GOP needs to win 60% of non-Black minorities to win the Electoral College and the Senate, not the current 40%, so Democrats will continue to dominate for at least a few years more.

How much voters view Democrats as 'the party of/for the rich, I have no idea, but overwhelmingly Democrats, Independents and Republicans view the Republicans as the party of/for the rich. So, if your theory is correct, at best for Republicans, there may be room for a third party.

Even the Republican defense of Trump in the New York State case is based on minimizing white collar/corporate crime.

Just because some stupid poor people fall for Trump's con that he's 'for the little guy' doesn't mean most people don't recognize the Republican party is by the rich, for the rich and of the rich.

Democrats now dominate Congressional Districts with the highest incomes, Republicans with the lowest.

So public perception is already there.

Self awareness among the party ranks about who they represent might not be there yet, but Democrats pushing for SALT and Republicans pressuring Big Business means they are on course to do so.

That's not public perception. For what it's worth, it would be interesting to see Congressional districts adjusted on the basis of cost of living. I would expect there are probably a lot of wealthy under the radar heavily Republican districts 'in the heartland.'

It would be more accurate to say that Republicans are increasingly incoherent on big business as would be tin pot dictators like Donald Trump and Ron deSantis both attempted to crack down on dissent, however, Congressional Republicans and most Republican governors, legislators and the Republican Supreme Court are still all for more deregulation when it comes to environmental and worker health and safety protections.

Beyond that, scratch a Republican and it doesn't take long for their traditional prejudices to come out "rich people know how to spend money better than anybody else" and "giving poor people welfare just encourages them to be lazy."

The Republican Party is perceived as the party of, by and for the rich, because it is the party of, by and for the rich.

As an aside, since I sometimes still listen to Coast to Coast Am, and it routinely provides examples of this right wing incoherence on big business.

1.I think his name is Charles Copas, a regular guest in the 'news section' who is a financial commentator and promoter of Austrian Economics (so one of those gold bug charlatans.) He routinely decries the government and its institutions, but on last night's show he praised the state owned Bank of North Dakota, the one publicly owned bank in the United States - it was founded during the progressive era, as a model of banking, in part because its publicly owned.

If something is referred to as 'publicly owned' rather than 'government owned' it seems many more Republicans can be supportive of it.

2.Idiot psychiatrist Peter Breggin who routinely bashed Democrats on the show for being 'anti American and anti capitalist' along with routinely bashing the capitalist pharmaceutical industry. I never can figure out how Breggin could believe that pharmaceutical companies are the only bad/greedy businesses in the United States (assuming prarmaceutical companies are bad/greedy.)

[Oryxslayer]

Glad to see Wisconsin could have a shot at being a functioning representative democracy again. Hopefully the new court majority will swiftly throw out the gerrymandered maps before the legislature can pull off any impeachment bullsh*t.

Reminder that if the legislature attempts impeachment BS the Dems will probably force recalls in every theoretical marginal on the map. The GOP would probably have done the same thing first if Dem's won the senate seat last night.

[wbrocks67]

Disappointed to see Dems lose SD-09 despite winning by 11 statewide, but still a 3% overperformance vs. Trump 2020.

[Xing]

While I certainly don't think we should read too much into this, especially if we're talking about 2024 in general, it does certainly seem as though Wisconsin's Republican trend was greatly overestimated. Johnson's narrow win in a Democratic midterm against a candidate who did make some mistakes and was not given the same attention as other successful Democratic candidates doesn't really suggest that Wisconsin is going the way of IA/MO/OH like many thought it might, particularly after 2016. It also doesn't seem like the WOW counties (particularly Waukesha and Ozaukee) are going to stop trending Democratic without Trump on the ballot.

[Duke of York]

Glad to see Wisconsin could have a shot at being a functioning representative democracy again. Hopefully the new court majority will swiftly throw out the gerrymandered maps before the legislature can pull off any impeachment bullsh*t.

Reminder that if the legislature attempts impeachment BS the Dems will probably force recalls in every theoretical marginal on the map. The GOP would probably have done the same thing first if Dem's won the senate seat last night.

I can't see them doing it. It would such a blatantly partisan move you'd see mass protests that would make those seen under Walker look like nothing.

[MasterJedi]

Glad to see Wisconsin could have a shot at being a functioning representative democracy again. Hopefully the new court majority will swiftly throw out the gerrymandered maps before the legislature can pull off any impeachment bullsh*t.

Reminder that if the legislature attempts impeachment BS the Dems will probably force recalls in every theoretical marginal on the map. The GOP would probably have done the same thing first if Dem's won the senate seat last night.

I can't see them doing it. It would such a blatantly partisan move you'd see mass protests that would make those seen under Walker look like nothing.
[/quote

Vos is evil but not stupid, I think he would likely force enough of them to not do it even though the insane wing will want to.

[Benjamin Frank]

Glad to see Wisconsin could have a shot at being a functioning representative democracy again. Hopefully the new court majority will swiftly throw out the gerrymandered maps before the legislature can pull off any impeachment bullsh*t.

Reminder that if the legislature attempts impeachment BS the Dems will probably force recalls in every theoretical marginal on the map. The GOP would probably have done the same thing first if Dem's won the senate seat last night.

I can't see them doing it. It would such a blatantly partisan move you'd see mass protests that would make those seen under Walker look like nothing.

If it's the last option available to them, I can see them doing it. Wisconsin Republicans especially have no shame.

The Republican elected last night campaigned on* impeaching the newly elected Supreme Court Justice

*to use the same logic in Republicans making the claim that Alvin Bragg campaigned on prosecuting Trump.

[Spectator]

Glad to see Wisconsin could have a shot at being a functioning representative democracy again. Hopefully the new court majority will swiftly throw out the gerrymandered maps before the legislature can pull off any impeachment bullsh*t.

Reminder that if the legislature attempts impeachment BS the Dems will probably force recalls in every theoretical marginal on the map. The GOP would probably have done the same thing first if Dem's won the senate seat last night.

I can't see them doing it. It would such a blatantly partisan move you'd see mass protests that would make those seen under Walker look like nothing.

And also, Evers would just appoint any impeached justices right back.

[oldtimer]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

If this was an isolated incident, I'd probably agree with you, but it just isn't. Republicans have consistently underperformed in general elections after 2020. This is part of a systemic issue with the GOP.

The only fly in the soup for all this is that the Presidential electorate is less Black and Upper Class than more obscure elections.

So Democrats might be having the same benefits as Republicans in the 1994-2014 period by relying on their Upper Class majorities in midterms and special elections, but Presidential Elections are a different thing.

However White Biden voters are not flipping no matter what they say in the opinion polls.

Do you know how much waiters and waitresses make 2.30 the rich got richer Sports and Celebrity that works for their Corporate Sports owners while the poor got poorer since the Great Recession of 2008

Michael Moore didn't come out of the Bill Clinton Admin where the Economy was good he came from the 2008 Great Recession, 2020 is called the Great Recession Pandemic

Yeah, and here's the deal:

Democrats are in charge since then, so the Poor blame Democrats for their problems more often than Republicans these days.

Also Democrats being the party of the Rich makes them uncool with the Poor.

Its the same problem Republicans had in the past, their coalition of the Upper Class and Lower Class Whites was unstable.

It gave them big majorities as long as it lasted, but it was going to collapse because the Rich and the Poor hate each other.

Any dominance doesn't last long in politics, because the groups that make a majority don't like each other.

Currently Democrats are the old Nixon-Reagan coalition just with Minorities instead of Lower Class Whites, but Minorities hate Rich White people, so they are already defecting.

But the GOP needs to win 60% of non-Black minorities to win the Electoral College and the Senate, not the current 40%, so Democrats will continue to dominate for at least a few years more.

How much voters view Democrats as 'the party of/for the rich, I have no idea, but overwhelmingly Democrats, Independents and Republicans view the Republicans as the party of/for the rich. So, if your theory is correct, at best for Republicans, there may be room for a third party.

Even the Republican defense of Trump in the New York State case is based on minimizing white collar/corporate crime.

Just because some stupid poor people fall for Trump's con that he's 'for the little guy' doesn't mean most people don't recognize the Republican party is by the rich, for the rich and of the rich.

Democrats now dominate Congressional Districts with the highest incomes, Republicans with the lowest.

So public perception is already there.

Self awareness among the party ranks about who they represent might not be there yet, but Democrats pushing for SALT and Republicans pressuring Big Business means they are on course to do so.

That's not public perception. For what it's worth, it would be interesting to see Congressional districts on the basis of cost of living. I would expect there are probably a lot of wealthy under the radar heavily Republican districts 'in the heartland.'

It would be more accurate to say that Republicans are increasingly incoherent on big business as would be tin pot dictators like Donald Trump and Ron deSantis both attempted to crack down on dissent, however, Congressional Republicans and most Republican governors, legislators and the Republican Supreme Court are still all for more deregulation when it comes to environmental and worker health and safety protections.

Beyond that, scratch a Republican and it doesn't take long for their traditional prejudices to come out "rich people know how to spend money better than anybody else" and "giving poor people welfare just encourages them to be lazy."

The Republican Party is perceived as the party of, by and for the rich, because it is the party of, by and for the rich.

Voters themselves have decided who's the party of the rich with their own vote, what can you do ?

It's like screaming denials that Bush Snr. wasn't born with a silver spoon in his mouth (I liked Ann Richards).

Josh Gottheimer has accepted that he represents the Rich, and other Democrats have and will inevitably follow, since they represent those Districts now.

You have to face reality that Representatives will sooner or later allign with the economic interests of their Districts.

And I don't say it's bad or good, I only point it that it always happens.