Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[wbrocks67]

While I certainly don't think we should read too much into this, especially if we're talking about 2024 in general, it does certainly seem as though Wisconsin's Republican trend was greatly overestimated. Johnson's narrow win in a Democratic midterm against a candidate who did make some mistakes and was not given the same attention as other successful Democratic candidates doesn't really suggest that Wisconsin is going the way of IA/MO/OH like many thought it might, particularly after 2016. It also doesn't seem like the WOW counties (particularly Waukesha and Ozaukee) are going to stop trending Democratic without Trump on the ballot.

And the key here too is that Barnes was outspent. Badly. This time, Dems put the work in and made sure it didn't happen. I think if Barnes had been given that level of attention, he could've pulled it off.

[Benjamin Frank]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

If this was an isolated incident, I'd probably agree with you, but it just isn't. Republicans have consistently underperformed in general elections after 2020. This is part of a systemic issue with the GOP.

The only fly in the soup for all this is that the Presidential electorate is less Black and Upper Class than more obscure elections.

So Democrats might be having the same benefits as Republicans in the 1994-2014 period by relying on their Upper Class majorities in midterms and special elections, but Presidential Elections are a different thing.

However White Biden voters are not flipping no matter what they say in the opinion polls.

Do you know how much waiters and waitresses make 2.30 the rich got richer Sports and Celebrity that works for their Corporate Sports owners while the poor got poorer since the Great Recession of 2008

Michael Moore didn't come out of the Bill Clinton Admin where the Economy was good he came from the 2008 Great Recession, 2020 is called the Great Recession Pandemic

Yeah, and here's the deal:

Democrats are in charge since then, so the Poor blame Democrats for their problems more often than Republicans these days.

Also Democrats being the party of the Rich makes them uncool with the Poor.

Its the same problem Republicans had in the past, their coalition of the Upper Class and Lower Class Whites was unstable.

It gave them big majorities as long as it lasted, but it was going to collapse because the Rich and the Poor hate each other.

Any dominance doesn't last long in politics, because the groups that make a majority don't like each other.

Currently Democrats are the old Nixon-Reagan coalition just with Minorities instead of Lower Class Whites, but Minorities hate Rich White people, so they are already defecting.

But the GOP needs to win 60% of non-Black minorities to win the Electoral College and the Senate, not the current 40%, so Democrats will continue to dominate for at least a few years more.

How much voters view Democrats as 'the party of/for the rich, I have no idea, but overwhelmingly Democrats, Independents and Republicans view the Republicans as the party of/for the rich. So, if your theory is correct, at best for Republicans, there may be room for a third party.

Even the Republican defense of Trump in the New York State case is based on minimizing white collar/corporate crime.

Just because some stupid poor people fall for Trump's con that he's 'for the little guy' doesn't mean most people don't recognize the Republican party is by the rich, for the rich and of the rich.

Democrats now dominate Congressional Districts with the highest incomes, Republicans with the lowest.

So public perception is already there.

Self awareness among the party ranks about who they represent might not be there yet, but Democrats pushing for SALT and Republicans pressuring Big Business means they are on course to do so.

That's not public perception. For what it's worth, it would be interesting to see Congressional districts on the basis of cost of living. I would expect there are probably a lot of wealthy under the radar heavily Republican districts 'in the heartland.'

It would be more accurate to say that Republicans are increasingly incoherent on big business as would be tin pot dictators like Donald Trump and Ron deSantis both attempted to crack down on dissent, however, Congressional Republicans and most Republican governors, legislators and the Republican Supreme Court are still all for more deregulation when it comes to environmental and worker health and safety protections.

Beyond that, scratch a Republican and it doesn't take long for their traditional prejudices to come out "rich people know how to spend money better than anybody else" and "giving poor people welfare just encourages them to be lazy."

The Republican Party is perceived as the party of, by and for the rich, because it is the party of, by and for the rich.

Voters themselves have decided who's the party of the rich with their own vote, what can you do ?

It's like screaming denials that Bush Snr. wasn't born with a silver spoon in his mouth (I liked Ann Richards).

Josh Gottheimer has accepted that he represents the Rich, and other Democrats have and will inevitably follow, since they represent those Districts now.

You have to face reality that Representatives will sooner or later allign with the economic interests of their Districts.

And I don't say it's bad or good, I only point it that it always happens.

They might, they might not. Other than Josh Gottheimer, they certainly haven't yet.

The best you can say for the Congressional Republicans at this point is they are increasingly incoherent because they have no expertise in and virtually no interest in public policy and governance.

Clowns like Kevin McCarthy, James Comer and Gym Jordan aren't serious people.

To be sure there are a handful of exceptions like Kay Granger who was first elected to Congress in 1996 and Patrick McHenry who was first elected to Congress in 2004.

[SInNYC]

RIPBOZO, by the way

https://twitter.com/AJBayatpour/status/1643439487911964672
https://twitter.com/AJBayatpour/status/1643439847602900992

Ah, displaying the nice even temperament and measured thoughts that we all expect of a judge, I see.

[Pollster]

Hearing today that, much moreso than in the Obama 2008 afterglow and subsequent Walker years, the state Dems seem to understand their opposition a lot better now and want to implement as much structural protection against a repeat of the 2010's as possible rather than just prioritizing winning elections. There's talk about a big push to get a redistricting commission modeled after Michigan's passed and ideally enshrined in the state constitution, as well as constitutional protections for the roles and duties of row officers.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/ali/status/1643436821655764994

They never had a chance absent some serious crisis.

However Wisconsin was 56% Non-College White in the last Presidential Election, so I think Republicans have a chance of winning Wisconsin in 2024 even if they lose overall.

[Person Man]

This will mean, especially if Ohio gets to do an abortion referendum, that every northern state will have legal abortions and every southern state will not. Indiana and Virginia being the lone exceptions.

[wbrocks67]

ET was being real messy last night too. They kept saying the NYT was incorrectly reporting vote totals when instead they just had a more updated count than Milkwaukee's BOE.

[THG]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

If this was an isolated incident, I'd probably agree with you, but it just isn't. Republicans have consistently underperformed in general elections after 2020. This is part of a systemic issue with the GOP.

Because we run candidates who suck at raising money and former losers, yes.

Dorow would have sadly still probably have lost, but in no universe would she have collapsed in WOW or as many deep red counties like Kelly did. She would have atleast tried campaigning. And if she was the nominee, then Knodl would have won comfortably

[DaleCooper]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

If this was an isolated incident, I'd probably agree with you, but it just isn't. Republicans have consistently underperformed in general elections after 2020. This is part of a systemic issue with the GOP.

Because we run candidates who suck at raising money and former losers, yes.

Dorow would have sadly still probably have lost, but in no universe would she have collapsed in WOW or as many deep red counties like Kelly did. She would have atleast tried campaigning. And if she was the nominee, then Knodl would have won comfortably

Even good Republican candidates have to overcome the terrible people at the head of the party. Why would anyone who cares about abortion rights consider voting for a Republican judge, especially after the Trump ayatollahs blatantly lied during their confirmations about Roe v. Wade? You can run great candidates but they're still going to run into the problem of the big picture GOP just being terrifying to most voters.   

[Pollster]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

If this was an isolated incident, I'd probably agree with you, but it just isn't. Republicans have consistently underperformed in general elections after 2020. This is part of a systemic issue with the GOP.

Because we run candidates who suck at raising money and former losers, yes.

Dorow would have sadly still probably have lost, but in no universe would she have collapsed in WOW or as many deep red counties like Kelly did. She would have atleast tried campaigning. And if she was the nominee, then Knodl would have won comfortably

Knodl was the establishment choice who beat a disaster candidate handily in the primary, fundraised solidly, and ran a competent campaign. He had some extreme right-wing reactionary views but nothing more disqualifying than anything Ron Johnson has ever said. In a high-turnout race like this he should have had no problem at all and his barely skating by is probably the biggest flashing warning sign for the Wisconsin Republicans out of the many we saw last night.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RS aren't gonna do that they will lose WI in even more landslide than now in 24

[Spectator]

Sinykin is probably going to see a redrawn Senate seat that sees Ozaukee County combined with northern Milwaukee County resulting in a double digit Biden seat, so she’ll live.

[Duke of York]

RS aren't gonna do that they will lose WI in even more landslide than now in 24

aren't going to do what?

[windjammer]

I don't understand why people are terrified about this supermajority.

The supreme court would just have to rule they lack this impeachment power as this is a gerrymandered chamber and we're safe!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I previously said there is an Eday in 24 and they are not likely to hold their Supermajority l long anyways Baldwin not Johnson is on the Ballot in 24

With Biden back on the campaign trail any R attempts will be thwarted by voters in 2024

[UncleSam]

Abortion has truly painted the GOP into an insane corner they can’t get out of.

Their base voters are rabidly insane on the issue, their establishment doesn’t care much about it, and 60-65% of the country won’t vote for them based solely on it.

Guarantee you there are some R strategists cursing Kavanaugh and Gorsuch every single day right now. Rs assumed they would keep to their word and go with Roberts on upholding most state restrictions but leaving Roe in place. When they went insane they cost Rs the senate, probably 20-30 house seats, and countless state level positions across the country.

The only good news for the GOP that  will come out of all of this is that the GOP will eventually be dragged kicking and screaming into a more reasonable stance on abortion, kind of like the Tories in the UK. It’ll be interesting to see how many consecutive election cycles they blow before that happens, though.

[Spectator]

Anyone have who won SD-08 in the Supreme Court race?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Anyone have who won SD-08 in the Supreme Court race?

Based off the underperformances across WOW for Kelly, I think Protasiewicz carried it.

[Yoda]

It's probably been said already, but wow did turnout just smash all predictions/expectations. I think walleye predicted 1.44, the most wildly optimistic turnout models had it around 1.5 million voters, and it's looking like we'll end up around 1.85 million. Just staggering turnout.

Couldn't be happier that gerrymandering looks certain to end in WI. The party that regularly receives > 50% of the vote having 1/3 of the legislative seats is third world, rogue state, fascist bullsh**t.

[Nyvin]

Anyone have who won SD-08 in the Supreme Court race?

I read somewhere Protasiewicz won it by around 1.6%.

[indietraveler]

Given how the margin ended up it's clear the candidates were not the deciding factor here and it's painfully obvious abortion is still an important issue.

Democrats need to wake up and start making abortion a central issue like republicans did for evangelicals for decades. How many states will have either a critical judicial appointment or ballot measure related to abortion on the ballot next year? Even if not directly on the ballot democrats need to do some or all of the following:

-Make every republican answer for every extremist abortion proposal. Wishy washy half-assed answers need to be highlighted and called out immediately. It shouldn't be hard to shoot down insane proposals if you don't agree with them.
-Run ads on this early and often.
-Keep highlighting that this is also an economic and healthcare issue.
-Not not stopping about Gen Z having less reproductive rights than previous generations.

[wbrocks67]

Given how the margin ended up it's clear the candidates were not the deciding factor here and it's painfully obvious abortion is still an important issue.

Democrats need to wake up and start making abortion a central issue like republicans did for evangelicals for decades. How many states will have either a critical judicial appointment or ballot measure related to abortion on the ballot next year? Even if not directly on the ballot democrats need to do some or all of the following:

-Make every republican answer for every extremist abortion proposal. Wishy washy half-assed answers need to be highlighted and called out immediately. It shouldn't be hard to shoot down insane proposals if you don't agree with them.
-Run ads on this early and often.
-Keep highlighting that this is also an economic and healthcare issue.
-Not not stopping about Gen Z having less reproductive rights than previous generations.

have you slept through every election since November?

[indietraveler]

Given how the margin ended up it's clear the candidates were not the deciding factor here and it's painfully obvious abortion is still an important issue.

Democrats need to wake up and start making abortion a central issue like republicans did for evangelicals for decades. How many states will have either a critical judicial appointment or ballot measure related to abortion on the ballot next year? Even if not directly on the ballot democrats need to do some or all of the following:

-Make every republican answer for every extremist abortion proposal. Wishy washy half-assed answers need to be highlighted and called out immediately. It shouldn't be hard to shoot down insane proposals if you don't agree with them.
-Run ads on this early and often.
-Keep highlighting that this is also an economic and healthcare issue.
-Not not stopping about Gen Z having less reproductive rights than previous generations.

have you slept through every election since November?

I should have reframed my sentence to say "keep it up and do more." I honestly think they could be shouting louder about this.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/AJBayatpour/status/1643667799061954587?s=20

Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu asked  if the Senate will consider impeaching Janet Protasiewicz.

"No," he said.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/AJBayatpour/status/1643667799061954587?s=20

Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu asked  if the Senate will consider impeaching Janet Protasiewicz.

"No," he said.

Wise choice.