Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Stockdale for Veep]

WOW slowly turning into just W. Dane, amazingly, still not maxed out...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Milwaukee needs its own Ben Wikler, or he needs to travel there and try and duplicate what he's done in Dane.

The issue is that Dane is full of high propensity voter groups, college educated whites being the lion’s share. Whereas Milwaukee is almost all low propensity voters, a lot of black and Hispanic voters. The same tricks that work in Dane won’t work there

[Brittain33]

Intentionally trying to unpack specific communities over others is wrong; reverse-gerrymandering is still wrong, even if it achieves an outcome that may be fair when it comes to partisanship. Any map that violates neutral principles to achieve *any* partisan target is not good.

I understand where we’re coming from, but it’s important to remember that this community in Milwaukee was explicitly “packed in there” in the first place in order to minimize their political and economic power. Much like the communities in Detroit.

Applying neutral principles to very different circumstances amounts to rewarding structural racism for its success.

[Yoda]

Milwaukee needs its own Ben Wikler, or he needs to travel there and try and duplicate what he's done in Dane.

The issue is that Dane is will of high propensity voter groups, college educated whites being the lion’s share. Whereas Milwaukee is almost all low propensity voters, a lot of black and Hispanic voters. The same tricks that work in Dane won’t work there

WI dems should try to move statewide office elections to presidential years if they ever get the chance. Preferably put forward a ballot amendment to voters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Milwaukee needs its own Ben Wikler, or he needs to travel there and try and duplicate what he's done in Dane.

The issue is that Dane is will of high propensity voter groups, college educated whites being the lion’s share. Whereas Milwaukee is almost all low propensity voters, a lot of black and Hispanic voters. The same tricks that work in Dane won’t work there

WI dems should try to move statewide office elections to presidential years if they ever get the chance. Preferably put forward a ballot amendment to voters.

How? No Dem measure is passing those R legislative majorities.

[Yoda]

Milwaukee needs its own Ben Wikler, or he needs to travel there and try and duplicate what he's done in Dane.

The issue is that Dane is will of high propensity voter groups, college educated whites being the lion’s share. Whereas Milwaukee is almost all low propensity voters, a lot of black and Hispanic voters. The same tricks that work in Dane won’t work there

WI dems should try to move statewide office elections to presidential years if they ever get the chance. Preferably put forward a ballot amendment to voters.

How? No Dem measure is passing those R legislative majorities.

Obviously in this hypothetical I meant if they won control of the legislature.

[Koharu]

This chart is cool.

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1644158211103006720

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd caution everyone from assuming that this is somehow the new baseline for Wisconsin. Clearly if the past few years shows us anything, it's that Wisconsinites overwhelmingly want a progressive-leaning Supreme Court, but are a lot more evenly split in statewide or federal races. Heck, we've seen it even in the SD-8 election, where the Democratic candidate ran significantly behind Protasiewicz.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why you can't just rely on bad Approvals to save your Party

[wbrocks67]

I'd caution everyone from assuming that this is somehow the new baseline for Wisconsin. Clearly if the past few years shows us anything, it's that Wisconsinites overwhelmingly want a progressive-leaning Supreme Court, but are a lot more evenly split in statewide or federal races. Heck, we've seen it even in the SD-8 election, where the Democratic candidate ran significantly behind Protasiewicz.

Was it really significantly? I thought people calculated that she likely only won it by a few %, if that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd caution everyone from assuming that this is somehow the new baseline for Wisconsin. Clearly if the past few years shows us anything, it's that Wisconsinites overwhelmingly want a progressive-leaning Supreme Court, but are a lot more evenly split in statewide or federal races. Heck, we've seen it even in the SD-8 election, where the Democratic candidate ran significantly behind Protasiewicz.

Was it really significantly? I thought people calculated that she likely only won it by a few %, if that.

I think I saw somewhere that she won it by 3. Since it looks like the Dem lost it by 2, that's a 5-point overperformance. And you have to consider that coattails played a part as well.

[Spectator]

I'd caution everyone from assuming that this is somehow the new baseline for Wisconsin. Clearly if the past few years shows us anything, it's that Wisconsinites overwhelmingly want a progressive-leaning Supreme Court, but are a lot more evenly split in statewide or federal races. Heck, we've seen it even in the SD-8 election, where the Democratic candidate ran significantly behind Protasiewicz.

Was it really significantly? I thought people calculated that she likely only won it by a few %, if that.

I think I saw somewhere that she won it by 3. Since it looks like the Dem lost it by 2, that's a 5-point overperformance. And you have to consider that coattails played a part as well.

I wouldn’t call it that significant due to downballot lag. Even with that “underperformance”, Sinykin still did a point better than Evers 2022 and 3 points better than Biden.

All else equal, I would expect the current version of the district to vote for Biden next year.

[Duke of York]

It will be interesting to see what the reaction of Republicans in the State legislature is to the maps being struck down and the potential for a third of their members to lose reelection.

[Nyvin]

Protasiewicz won SD-8 by around 1.5%.  38,470 vs 37,345

https://twitter.com/UniteCarolina/status/1643602505455001604

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RS are gonna lose seats in WI state legislature in 24 anyways it's only temp they hold a two thirds majority they RS will still hold the majority but it won't be 2/3 rds, white Fems are the ones that carries D's over finish line

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, so it's more like a 3-point underperformance, which would still imply something like a D+8 statewide vote. A strong result for sure, although I'd still be wary of applying the patterns of an off-year election to a presidential one. We've seen that the dynamics are very different.

[Devils30]

I think one problem the GOP has is they treat the remaining WWC rural Obama 2x-Clinton-Biden voters like they are natural flips in the next election. Problem is the remaining 30% to 33% of the WWC who vote Democratic is considerably less socially conservative. It's pretty clear from these ballot referendums that close to 100% of these voters are effectively pro-choice.

[Duke of York]

RS are gonna lose seats in WI state legislature in 24 anyways it's only temp they hold a two thirds majority they RS will still hold the majority but it won't be 2/3 rds, white Fems are the ones that carries D's over finish line

It’s very possible new maps get implemented for next year and Democrats have a chance to get a majority in both chambers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be Baldwin v Kleefish anyways not Gallagher and Baldwin will win between 4/7 pts, but Kleefish was favored over Evers in a Midterm Environment just like Johnson won by a single pt over Barnes and will lose in a landslide if he chooses to run in 28 but Gallegher probably runs but still loses to a D, Sara Rodriguez LT Gov can run for Gov 26 or S 28

[jamestroll]

Also, the biggest misconception/lie about the 2016 election is that Trump was the only Republican who could have won the Rust Belt/Upper Midwest states. This rewriting of history (to which the media contributed in a shameless manner) only exacerbated the devotion to Trump as a political figure and made Republicans double down on their worst elements, missing the forest (Trump's consistently absymal favorability ratings) for the trees (fabricated propaganda about Trump's "unique strengths" as a candidate).

The truth is that Republicans never needed Trump to win the 2016 election. In fact, he was one of the very few Republicans capable of losing it (and nearly did).

But Trump WAS the only Republican who could turn New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia from competitive states into solidly Democratic states.

Are you sure that Trump single handedly turned Colorado and Virginia into solidly Democrat states?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/UngaTheGreat/status/1644181865979424774

Lol Republicans turning to "IT WAS RIGGED" conspiracy theories again. They never freaking learn...

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Thanks goodness, she won.

Big time.

Hopefully, the Wisc. Supreme Court will soon strike down the draconic abortion law there and the gerrymandering by Republicans.

A state which usually votes ca. 50-50 simply cannot have 2 state chambers with two-thirds majorities for Republicans. The Court must demand fair maps to be drawn for 2024.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/averyhatestwt/status/1644136086892068864

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/averyhatestwt/status/1644463330650902529?s=20

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/UngaTheGreat/status/1644181865979424774

Lol Republicans turning to "IT WAS RIGGED" conspiracy theories again. They never freaking learn...

Considering that Protasiewicz won by 200 thousand votes that means that Democrats spent more than half a billion in voter bribes.
I wonder who put up that kind of money.