Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[THG]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

Who is the non-awful candidate the GOP is going to nominate in 2024? The guy facing 34 felony counts? Who caused this abortion disaster with his SCOTUS appointments in the first place?

Well yes, as things stand right now Trump probably does similarly to what McCain in 2008 did.

But even then I’m not sure that these legal troubles help Trump in the long term, even in a GOP primary. But that’s a topic for a different story.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1643483302857175041?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/maxtmcc/status/1643495267285495810?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tonight, the people of Wisconsin won reproductive justice and a chance at having a real democracy.

Goodness won today.

At least you're finally admitting that abortion is why the GOP loses races.

When the hell did I of all people deny this lmao

Every time I've blamed abortion for costing the GOP in a race, you're quick to pivot to 'election denial'.

Gas prices are cheap we are getting rebates on gas D's aren't losing when gas prices and they are gonna end Gerrymandering

[Not Me, Us]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

If this was an isolated incident, I'd probably agree with you, but it just isn't. Republicans have consistently underperformed in general elections after 2020. This is part of a systemic issue with the GOP.

[windjammer]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

Who is the non-awful candidate the GOP is going to nominate in 2024? The guy facing 34 felony counts? Who caused this abortion disaster with his SCOTUS appointments in the first place?

Well yes, as things stand right now Trump probably does similarly to what McCain in 2008 did.

But even then I’m not sure that these legal troubles help Trump in the long term, even in a GOP primary. But that’s a topic for a different story.

The GOP constantly underperforms massively with the abortion issue.

It's not the only election showing that

[Sir Mohamed]

Oof, I didn't expect such a blowout. That said, I don't think this has any implications for the 2024 prez election. Starts out as pure tossup or Tilt Biden.

[Ferguson97]

At this point, I think we can conclude that "Trumpism without Trump" is not a viable campaign strategy. Trump was the selling point, not Trumpism.

[Yoda]

PROTASIEWICZ WON THE CITY OF WAUKESHA!!!

https://twitter.com/Waukeshadems/status/1643471832073269248?s=20

The Wisconsin GOP is screwed unless they can somehow get the rural to start voting like they do in Iowa. A Democrat getting 40% or more in Waukesha County is lethal.

I imagine Republicans are more likely to try to make it illegal for people in Milwaukee and Madison to vote.

If they had super majorities in both chambers, I'd bet you $1,000,000 that they would pass a law giving themselves the power to toss out all the votes in counties that they deem to have had "fraudulent" or "irregular" results, and if the court had a conservative majority they would find nothing wrong with that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oof, I didn't expect such a blowout. That said, I don't think this has any implications for the 2024 prez election. Starts out as pure tossup or Tilt Biden.

Reverend Barber said WI Safe D Tammy Baldwin isn't no push over she Beat Tommy Thompson in 12, everyone thinks Baldwin is a push Over 😃 and thinks Gallagher wins he isn't even running

[Sir Mohamed]

At this point, I think we can conclude that "Trumpism without Trump" is not a viable campaign strategy. Trump was the selling point, not Trumpism.

Yup, though the selling point is just for a limited base. Trump got extremely lucky in 2016 that he was running against a candidate with a weak campaign and in a time the electorate was calling for an outsider.

Ever since 2017, the GOP was done poorly in several elections because Trump is an albatross on their neck. Especially in elections he isn't on the ballot because his base doesn't bother to turn out in high enough numbers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson won because of Gerrymandering in WI he is gone in 28 regardless either retirement or thru a loss this Johnson seat is the same as WV for Ds

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So it looks like the final margin will be about 10%?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I would like to think that Wisconsin is moving away from the Republicans, but Ron Johnson did just win re-election there last year. Plus, the state has trended R in each of the last 3 presidential elections.

[Landslide Lyndon]

One more election where the Republican candidate tried to exploit the trans moral panic and lost.
Sad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/VoidOfRoses/status/1643330588173279234

[WalterWhite]

This is not a particularly impressive performance for Wisconsin Democrats. The WISC in 2020 was won by a similar margin by Wisconsin Democrats.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This is not a particularly impressive performance for Wisconsin Democrats. The WISC in 2020 was won by a similar margin by Wisconsin Democrats.

This one was held at the same time as the Democratic Presidential primary iirc, and technically in a Trump "off"year. This one is during a Biden off-year. I think it's pretty impressive.

[WalterWhite]

This is not a particularly impressive performance for Wisconsin Democrats. The WISC in 2020 was won by a similar margin by Wisconsin Democrats.

This one was held at the same time as the Democratic Presidential primary iirc, and technically in a Trump "off"year. This one is during a Biden off-year. I think it's pretty impressive.

I suppose. 2020's election was held in a D+3% national environment, but this one was held in an R+3% national environment. Wisconsin Democrats improved their margin by 1%. Overall, that is a 7% swing in favor of Wisconsin Democrats compared to the national environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I keep saying this that when Johnson isn't on the ballot RS underpolls that's why they got lucky because it's a midterm that Johnson won he is Doomed in 28 in a Prez cycle Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson in 2012 that proves my point

[WalterWhite]

I keep saying this that when Johnson isn't on the ballot RS underpolls that's why they got lucky because it's a midterm that Johnson won he is Doomed in 28 in a Prez cycle Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson in 2012 that proves my point

Johnson beat Feingold in 2016 even though it was a presidential year, and Feingold was favored to win.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Madison Ultra Liberals be like: Rabbie Winkler and Rebbe Brandon said to vote for the nice lady, so I will.

[Spectator]

Oof, I didn't expect such a blowout. That said, I don't think this has any implications for the 2024 prez election. Starts out as pure tossup or Tilt Biden.

Partly disagree. Obviously Trump will do much better than Kelly in the rurals, but I think the WOW margins are indicative of what we’ll see next year in a rematch.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Oof, I didn't expect such a blowout. That said, I don't think this has any implications for the 2024 prez election. Starts out as pure tossup or Tilt Biden.

Partly disagree. Obviously Trump will do much better than Kelly in the rurals, but I think the WOW margins are indicative of what we’ll see next year in a rematch.

Well tbf I think we've known for a while that Trump would/will be obliterated in the suburbs in 2024.

[Person Man]

So it looks like the final margin will be about 10%?

11 apparently

The question is now how and when what has happened here will become apparent.

[oldtimer]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

If this was an isolated incident, I'd probably agree with you, but it just isn't. Republicans have consistently underperformed in general elections after 2020. This is part of a systemic issue with the GOP.

The only fly in the soup for all this is that the Presidential electorate is less Black and Upper Class than more obscure elections.

So Democrats might be having the same benefits as Republicans in the 1994-2014 period by relying on their Upper Class majorities in midterms and special elections, but Presidential Elections are a different thing.

However White Biden voters are not flipping no matter what they say in the opinion polls.