WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[jkmillion]

Ron Johnson is a weak, unpopular incumbent. Does it even matter in an environment as bad as 2022? No, most likely. I say like R+4-8.5 just because of the national environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Johnson is a weak, unpopular incumbent. Does it even matter in an environment as bad as 2022? No, most likely. I say like R+4-8.5 just because of the national environment.

Lol Biden Approvals are going up he has been in Reuters polling between 45/5o percent Approvals and we won a 303 map at Biden 50/45 anyways, users are so DOOM on this Election and there are hardly any polls except NY Gov

Even before his Approvals fell guess what his Approvals were 52/48 the same as in 2020


Why do users Doom everyday on Atlas on the Election because they're not getting 1400 checks


It's the same users DOOM all the time what did Trump do give a tax cut that's it, when Rs get in control they said economy is stringer than ever before they're not giving you those checks like in 2020 they're gonna cut

Bush W he said he would bring honor and integrity back to WH a tax cut for the rich

[Unelectable Bystander]

Marquette had Biden leading by 4-6 points in Wisconsin

[ElectionsGuy]

If this is the same Marquette that claims 67% of the national electorate has an unfavorable opinion of Trump (when RCP average has it around 50% right now) I would seriously not even consider those numbers for Ron Johnson. Maybe they're close to accurate, but Marquette has really gone off the rails in terms of accuracy and reliability over the past 3 years, and given their recent history, Johnson's new voters (Feingold --> Johnson) are definitely not going to be captured by them, whereas the Johnson --> D in 2022 voters definitely will.

[jkmillion]

Ron Johnson is a weak, unpopular incumbent. Does it even matter in an environment as bad as 2022? No, most likely. I say like R+4-8.5 just because of the national environment.

Lol Biden Approvals are going up he has been in Reuters polling between 45/5o percent Approvals and we won a 303 map at Biden 50/45 anyways, users are so DOOM on this Election and there are hardly any polls except NY Gov

Even before his Approvals fell guess what his Approvals were 52/48 the same as in 2020


Why do users Doom everyday on Atlas on the Election because they're not getting 1400 checks


It's the same users DOOM all the time what did Trump do give a tax cut that's it, when Rs get in control they said economy is stringer than ever before they're not giving you those checks like in 2020 they're gonna cut

Bush W he said he would bring honor and integrity back to WH a tax cut for the rich

I am actually impressed on how often you try to interject pro-Democrat analysis. This isn't Fox News, this is an actual election analysis website(unless you are a troll).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Johnson is a weak, unpopular incumbent. Does it even matter in an environment as bad as 2022? No, most likely. I say like R+4-8.5 just because of the national environment.

Lol Biden Approvals are going up he has been in Reuters polling between 45/5o percent Approvals and we won a 303 map at Biden 50/45 anyways, users are so DOOM on this Election and there are hardly any polls except NY Gov

Even before his Approvals fell guess what his Approvals were 52/48 the same as in 2020


Why do users Doom everyday on Atlas on the Election because they're not getting 1400 checks


It's the same users DOOM all the time what did Trump do give a tax cut that's it, when Rs get in control they said economy is stringer than ever before they're not giving you those checks like in 2020 they're gonna cut

Bush W he said he would bring honor and integrity back to WH a tax cut for the rich

I am actually impressed on how often you try to interject pro-Democrat analysis. This isn't Fox News, this is an actual election analysis website(unless you are a troll).

You can call me s Troll behind the wall of the forum

There hasn't been any polling in WI, PA or MI we don't know what the polls are like you can't say WI is gone

[wbrocks67]

If this is the same Marquette that claims 67% of the national electorate has an unfavorable opinion of Trump (when RCP average has it around 50% right now) I would seriously not even consider those numbers for Ron Johnson. Maybe they're close to accurate, but Marquette has really gone off the rails in terms of accuracy and reliability over the past 3 years, and given their recent history, Johnson's new voters (Feingold --> Johnson) are definitely not going to be captured by them, whereas the Johnson --> D in 2022 voters definitely will.

You guys cannot keep accusing people like me of discounting polls I don't like when you do the *exact* same thing with any poll that is somewhat favorable to Democrats. Enough.

[UncleSam]

If this is the same Marquette that claims 67% of the national electorate has an unfavorable opinion of Trump (when RCP average has it around 50% right now) I would seriously not even consider those numbers for Ron Johnson. Maybe they're close to accurate, but Marquette has really gone off the rails in terms of accuracy and reliability over the past 3 years, and given their recent history, Johnson's new voters (Feingold --> Johnson) are definitely not going to be captured by them, whereas the Johnson --> D in 2022 voters definitely will.

You guys cannot keep accusing people like me of discounting polls I don't like when you do the *exact* same thing with any poll that is somewhat favorable to Democrats. Enough.

Porque no los dos

[MT Treasurer]

The issue might have to do with the fact that the vast majority of polls (including/especially in this state) have been favoring/overestimating one particular party for four election cycles in a row.

[LDP Everywhere]

How will Johnson do in Ashland, Bayfield, and Douglas counties?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't know they haven't polled WI, PA and MI

[LDP Everywhere]

Could Johnson win Portage county? Here’s my prediction.

[Pollster]

I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

Eye emoji.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

Given that it's Wisconsin, he probably still has a high single digits lead. Polling in the state is notoriously inaccurate.

[Pollster]

I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

Given that it's Wisconsin, he probably still has a high single digits lead. Polling in the state is notoriously inaccurate.

Breaking my personal policy of not responding to you to note that this same person's polling had Trump +1 in Wisconsin in their final 2020 poll, Evers +2/Baldwin +8 in their final 2018 poll, and Trump/Clinton tied in their final 2016 poll.

Internal polling and public polling are not the same, folks.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

What are the percentages then and now, and are there any theories for the difference

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

Is this the same "colleague" who had Dolan leading in a Ohio tracker poll..

[wbrocks67]

I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

What are the percentages then and now, and are there any theories for the difference

I mean, Johnson can still win given the environment, but I really don't think some people here take seriously just how INSANE he comes off. I mean, it's like he's been trying to sabotage his own campaign saying and doing the most idiotic things. WI is a tossup state, not a red state. Johnson's antics seem more fitted for Kentucky or something.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

Is this the same "colleague" who had Dolan leading in a Ohio tracker poll..

Can y'all just be nice and respectful that we have an actual pollster here to give us some insights instead of giving them attitude?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

Is this the same "colleague" who had Dolan leading in a Ohio tracker poll..

Can y'all just be nice and respectful that we have an actual pollster here to give us some insights instead of giving them attitude?

It's a legitimate question.. I make no apologies in that I express skepticism in data from wholly anonymous sources.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t think Johnson was ever ahead by "high single digits" unless his inflated lead was just the result of the disparity in name recognition between the incumbent and his unknown D challengers and the undecideds were always very D-leaning.

[Pollster]

I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

Is this the same "colleague" who had Dolan leading in a Ohio tracker poll..

Can y'all just be nice and respectful that we have an actual pollster here to give us some insights instead of giving them attitude?

It's a legitimate question.. I make no apologies in that I express skepticism in data from wholly anonymous sources.

No, it's not the same person. Fair question!

(for the record, Dem pollsters are generally not good at polling GOP primaries, and vice versa)

[Pollster]

I don’t think Johnson was ever ahead by "high single digits" unless his inflated lead was just the result of the disparity in name recognition between the incumbent and his unknown D challengers and the undecideds were always very D-leaning.

Yes, probably more likely than not. I didn't get details on changes in vote share or favorability/job approval, which is of course a much stronger indicator of growth/erosion of support than changes in margin.

[Pollster]

I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

What are the percentages then and now, and are there any theories for the difference

Didn't get percentages. My guess is that it's due to Barnes/Lasry (and I presume other Dems?) mostly having the airwaves to themselves and running exclusively positive ads for the time being.