WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1409862189918347270

[wbrocks67]

A lot of the "Barnes can't win" commentary seems to rooted in the same place where the "Lamb is the only one who can win PA" commentary is; complete guesses and gut feelings. There is absolutely no hard evidence that Barnes cannot win, especially against an insurrectionist and certified loon like Ron Johnson. I think a lot of folks around here are just giving into this "black progressives cannot win WWC-dominated electorates" mentality that has stymied genuinely good candidates. "Electability" arguments this far out, and especially in a primary, are lame. It's a cyclical argument of "they can't win because they can't win."

It really isn't. For one I don't support Lamb I think he's uninspiring and I don't want another Sinema. Progressives can win but they have to be the right type. Fetrerman for example looks like a wwc voter and could really relate to them for example.
2. Barnes being black is not why I think  he would be a bad candidate.. Barnes made comments about the Kenosha shooting that were viewed as having incited the riots. The ads write themselves.

There's no reason to believe Lamb would be another Sinema. The two really aren't that similar

[wbrocks67]

Lean R -> Likely R.

How so? If Johnson ends up not running, this is straight tossup.

[wbrocks67]

Mandela vs Johnson would definitely be an interesting race.

[wbrocks67]

As is almost always the case in WI, the national environment will tell the tale (although I maintain Barnes is a weak enough candidate that he’d underperform by a few points even in a good year).  That really tells you all you need to know about who will win.

Why do you think Mandela is a weak candidate?

[wbrocks67]

I could honestly see Johnson winning by double digits.

Might as well make it 20 or 30 points!

I swear you literally just pull stuff out of nowhere and post it.

[wbrocks67]

Barnes is more than liberal, he is a radical left-wing socialist out of step with Wisconsin. He supports socialized medicine, which means the government in charge of health care and doctors. In every place that happens, you have waiting lists and rationing. In the United Kingdom, if a senior needs a HIP replacement, it takes 90 days. In Canada, it takes 200 days. The cost of socialized medicine that Barnes supports would be immense as the Urban Institute, a left leaning institute, scored it as costing $32 trillion in 10 years, $2.5 trillion in the first year. The total we raise from our income taxes is $1.5 trillion so Barnes' plan would require tripling taxes. Even if he believes he can do it with five points on the corporate rate, that doesn't even pass elementary schools math. Even if he believes that could be done by taxing the rich, if you took every person in America $1 million or more and took 100 % of their income, it would pay for 5 months of Barnes' socialized medicine plan. Under that plan, Barnes wants to put everyone who hasn't paid into Medicare on Medicare and that would bankrupt Medicare, would hurt seniors who paid into Medicare for their whole life and rely on it for their health care. And putting 200 million people on it, including illegal immigrants, could bankrupt Medicare.

Barnes voted against authorizing work-share programs, against amending Wisconsin's iron-ore mining regulations and against reducing state income taxes.

Barnes is weak on crime and law enforcement, in fact, the gubernatorial administration which Barnes is working for vetoed a bill that would have penalized cities and counties that defund police departments.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/tony-evers-vetoes-bill-that-would-have-penalized-cities-counties-that-defund-police-departments/article_30125a78-7312-53d1-9972-9b16e305d008.html

Barnes also introduced legislation to eliminate “monetary bail as a condition of release for a defendant charged with” a crime, no matter the severity of the crime. Yes, you read that correctly – a proposal to eliminate prosecutors’ ability to keep dangerous people in custody. This bill died in committee but came after current Milwaukee County District Attorney John Chisholm supported similar views in his inaugural campaign. Those views came back to light last month after Chisholm set what he later called an “inappropriately low” bail amount ($1,000) in the case of Darrell Brooks, who allegedly killed six people in a Waukesha, WI Christmas parade rampage just weeks after a domestic violence arrest. If the Barnes bill passed in 2016, Brooks, along with many other criminals, would have been freely walking the streets of Wisconsin for the past 5 years.

https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/2015/related/proposals/ab981

And he also held a fundraiser with Robert Creamer, a felon who pleaded guilty to bank fraud in 2005 and was sentenced to five months in prison. More recently, Creamer and others tied to Democracy Partners got caught on camera in 2016 talking about inciting violence at Trump events. It got so out of hand that they had to take a step back from helping Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

https://www.nrsc.org/press-releases/barnes-gang-of-radicals-and-a-felon-host-fundraiser-2021-11-16/

Unsurprising that Barnes is a puppet of the radical Defund the Police movement and is endorsed by movements advocating the abolition of ICE.

So you can put all the lipstick you want on a pig but it is still a pig.

The idea that somehow Barnes is "out of step" with Wisconsin but Ron Johnson is not is...

[wbrocks67]

If this is the same Marquette that claims 67% of the national electorate has an unfavorable opinion of Trump (when RCP average has it around 50% right now) I would seriously not even consider those numbers for Ron Johnson. Maybe they're close to accurate, but Marquette has really gone off the rails in terms of accuracy and reliability over the past 3 years, and given their recent history, Johnson's new voters (Feingold --> Johnson) are definitely not going to be captured by them, whereas the Johnson --> D in 2022 voters definitely will.

You guys cannot keep accusing people like me of discounting polls I don't like when you do the *exact* same thing with any poll that is somewhat favorable to Democrats. Enough.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

What are the percentages then and now, and are there any theories for the difference

I mean, Johnson can still win given the environment, but I really don't think some people here take seriously just how INSANE he comes off. I mean, it's like he's been trying to sabotage his own campaign saying and doing the most idiotic things. WI is a tossup state, not a red state. Johnson's antics seem more fitted for Kentucky or something.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

Is this the same "colleague" who had Dolan leading in a Ohio tracker poll..

Can y'all just be nice and respectful that we have an actual pollster here to give us some insights instead of giving them attitude?

[wbrocks67]

I get people want to give Johnson some incumbency credit or bc its a red wave year, but Johnson is quite literally doing everything he possibly can to tank this race.

If Democrats cant win this race, it would be a total failure on their part, even in this redder environment.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1539311756450971648

[wbrocks67]

Barnes raises $2.1M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1544992119713959937

[wbrocks67]

Barnes raises $2.1M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1544992119713959937

That's not enough. Granted, no amount of money is likely to be enough, but this doesn't inspire confidence in his chances.

He's not even the nominee yet. Just stop. For all of us. Just stop.

[wbrocks67]

Call me crazy but I think people are vastly overrating Johnson this year.

In 2016 he was basically a generic R. That is not the case this time around

[wbrocks67]

As someone who watched the 2016 race closely (and has the mental trauma to prove it), Johnson was not a “generic R” then. He has always been really far right and said some really absurd things. He might be hamming it up a bit more this time, but he’s never not been awful. Much as I’d like to see him lose, these sorts of statements aren’t going to be enough to make that happen.

Right, but do people know all of the things he's said? Social media is way different now than it was in 2022, and he's been clearly on TV many times and in the news for many worse things than 2016. I get what you're saying, but people acting as if he was the same candidate in 2016 are just flat out wrong imo. He's much, much worse now.

[wbrocks67]

So according to FiveThirtyEight, no third-party candidates have qualified for the general election ballot. Is it too late for them to do so?

If not, helpful to Barnes you would think.

[wbrocks67]

I think Barnes has always been a clear favorite. I doubt he can win the general in a year like this, though I don’t think he’s a particularly bad candidate at all (and I think the margin will be relatively respectable), the environment is just too much of an obstacle to overcome.

I'm confused as to why people say this about Wisconsin. Johnson's approvals are horrific right now, and while WI leans redder than MI/PA, I don't see this as hard as many people think, especially post-Roe.

It won't be *easy* for Barnes, but I think Johnson is being incredibly overrated in this environment.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

I wouldn't bank too much on approvals. Going by that, Biden would be headed for a >35 states loss, which would not happen even for polarization alone.

Tbh, I expect polls to be similar to 2016, showing a competitive race or Johnson down before it's pretty much a tie in October, giving Dems some hope, and then we wake up Nov. 9 with Johnson having won 52-47%.

Lean R.

A comparison between Biden's approvals and Johnson's approvals aren't really comparable, given that Biden's reason is the base giving him low approvals, and Johnson's base has no reason to do so. Which makes Johnson's issue more likely with D's and I's, which is a problem for him in Nov.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

Johnson was even less popular in 2016, and he still won. That doesn't mean it'll happen again for sure, but it's not unprecedented.

This talking point is not true and I wish people would stop repeating it. Johnson had an a +6 favorable in Oct 2020 via Marquette.

Even when he was below water in that poll, it was 35/39 in Sept. A 39% unfavorable is a lot different than a 53% unfavorable/disapproval.

Look, again, I could be totally wrong here. But I really feel like people seem to be stuck in some time loop where Johnson is going to perform the same way as *6 years ago* "just because", as if things have not changed since then.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult approval ratings have been a bit dubious, but in the new Q2 senate report, should be noted that he had nearly the worst net approval rating of all 50 senators at -16 (37/53). He was only beat by McConnell (-31).

If that # is anywhere near close, he's in big trouble, even in this environment.

I've said there are similarities with him and Steve Southerland, Lee Terry in 2014. His behavior is extremely erratic, although to be fair Barnes has more than his share of problems too and is way too left leaning for the state.

To be fair, Ron Johnson is way too right-leaning at this point for the state, so I feel like those cancel each other out at this point

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1552308228750544902?s=20&t=QjGZZ2-eCpJ...

Holy sh**t. That's genuinely shocking.

Is he one of the highest polling candidates to drop out in recent memory?

[wbrocks67]

Hot damn! This is what Democratic Party unity looks like. This is like deja vu of the days after the SC primary of 2020 lol.

[wbrocks67]

Obviously very good news for Barnes, and he'll now be able to pre-empt the ad blitz that the NRSC had scheduled for immediately after the primary.

Really excellent coordination/planning and I have a strong feeling the excellent Ben Wikler played a big role in it.

Have you heard any rumblings about this GE race in particular?

[wbrocks67]

Glad to see Lasry is putting the money to good use now.