WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There hasn't been any state by state poll on this race Johnson only won by 300K votes

[lfromnj]

Well, I highly doubt he'll get 68% in Waukesha, 65% in Ozaukee or 26% in Dane like he did in 2016. But he probably will do much better in rural areas.

Trump got 23% in Dane. A 5 point win or so by uniform swing gets Johnson to 26. I do agree those WOW #s will be improbable.

[Pericles]

Johnson should be vulnerable but the big obstacle is that Wisconsin will be a few points at least out of reach in this national environment. Hopefully Democrats get really lucky, otherwise this is bad news for the country since Johnson is one of the worst Senators of them all.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't think it matters too much whether Johnson runs or retires from the standpoint of what party will win. It's very hard to see a Democrat winning this race in this environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think it matters too much whether Johnson runs or retires from the standpoint of what party will win. It's very hard to see a Democrat winning this race in this environment.

We haven't seen any state by state polls only Natl Approvals and IPSOS and ZOGBY contradict those 40 percent numbers Biden is closer to 50 than you think and WI is part of the 304/234 battleground

It depends on turnout 2018 midterm was 46/43 90 M but we had 80/75 M 150 M for 2020 if we get a Prez turnout it will be a Trifecta for D's and it's VBM not same day

[GregTheGreat657]

Ron Johnson is IN:

https://www.fox6now.com/news/wisconsin-senator-ron-johnson-reelection

[President Johnson]

Ron Johnson is IN:

https://www.fox6now.com/news/wisconsin-senator-ron-johnson-reelection

Lean Republican -> Likely Republican

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's wait till another poll come out the recent poll had it tied by Clarify

[Suburbia]

Johnson is one of the most odious Senators, he should be defeated, but he probably holds on....

[JMT]

Here’s the official announcement:

https://twitter.com/ronjohnsonwi/status/1480182975937531908?s=21

[SnowLabrador]

Here’s the official announcement:

https://twitter.com/ronjohnsonwi/status/1480182975937531908?s=21

Johnson's probably not going to lose, but if he does lose despite the national environment, I think a key reason will be that he says he'd rather retire. Barnes, or whoever his opponent is, NEEDS to pounce on this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson is gonna LOSE users here don't believe in waves and despite Biden low Approvals he isn't on the downswing it's on the upswing, Cook rates WI Sen as Tossup, all the pollsters, 2018, had Walker winning including Nate Silver and he Lost, because he was Head of the RGA Govs Assoc. Johnson won only bye 30oK votes not 2M and so did Toomey

Portman won bye 2M but Josh Mandel isn't Portman and can lose OH Sen isn't safe R but Gov is, it's Tilt R/Tossups

[brucejoel99]

This ought to be unironically good for Dems, but man, it sure is gonna suck when he once again rides a wave to a victory that he wouldn't otherwise get in a non-GOP wave year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The last poll had it tied 47/47

[Klobmentum Mutilated Herself]

Johnson's probably not going to lose, but if he does lose despite the national environment, I think a key reason will be that he says he'd rather retire. Barnes, or whoever his opponent is, NEEDS to pounce on this.

No Johnson voter is flipping to Barnes on a basis of "well, I like Ron, but he said he'd only serve two terms."

Barnes's strategy is going to be the same as Evers and Biden: maximize turnout in Milwaukee and Dane County. Until the WI Dems start building real party infrastructure and a bench, that's all a Dem can do for now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The D's are gonna remind voters about Johnson statement on insurrection that he praised just like Cruz praised insurrection

[President Johnson]

This ought to be unironically good for Dems, but man, it sure is gonna suck when he once again rides a wave to a victory that he wouldn't otherwise get in a non-GOP wave year.

Yeah, after he managed to hang on in 2016 already, I don't think he loses this time. And I'm not sure Mandela Barnes is a strong enough candidate. He'd deserve to win the seat for certain, but well...

[WV222]

Barnes Internal:
Barnes 40%
Lasry 11%
Godlewski 10%
Nelson 8%
Someone else 3%
Undecided 29%

https://mandelabarnes.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ALG-POLL-MEMO-FINAL-WEB-1.7.2022.pdf

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Oh come on, this tthread is acting like he's a strong incumbent for ,winning in 2010 a republican wave year against a not particularly popular incumbent and holding on in 2016 when the democrats collapsed in the Midwest.

He's definitely favoured because of the national enviorment but no more than any generic republican. In fact probably less so given his term limit promise breaking opens him up to attacks of being a Washington creature as well as probably boosting liberal turnout a bit out of sheer hatred

[ElectionsGuy]

It seems we're likely to get a Johnson vs Barnes race. While ultimately people who dislike Johnson and the GOP in general will not be persuaded in this race, it'll be easy for Johnson to paint Barnes' tenure as Lt Governor in a negative light, in a way he couldn't do with a more unknown candidate. At the same time, Johnson has had some controversies of his own, but most of it is "outside the guardrails" statements that really don't have much bearing on the reasons most people vote, and most confirm some of the positive appeals he has to large segments of people ("tells it like it is", "isn't afraid" "outsider", etc.)

The burden is on Barnes. He has to escape the vortex of Biden's approval rating and perception in Wisconsin, which is undoubtedly double digits in the negative in WI right now. He basically has to hope Johnson is so uniquely unpopular compared to other Republicans that he can squeak by as a protest, rather than getting elected because he and the Democrats are approved of (because they're not). Good luck.

[SnowLabrador]

I could honestly see Johnson winning by double digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I could honestly see Johnson winning by double digits.

Johnson is gonna go thru scrutiny of him praising insurrection there has been zero state by state polls only Trash 43% Biden Approvals by the way ZOGBY has Biden Job Approval at 50/48 and Job Performance at 43/50 and IPSOS HAD BIDEN AT 52/48 THAT IS CLOSE TO THE BLUE WALL TO ME Biden won 50/45 in 2020 and WI, PA and MI are part of blue 🧱🧱🧱

It doesn't take Biden much to secure the blue wall we may lose the H but a 52/48 Senate is plausible WI/Pa/GA

[wbrocks67]

I could honestly see Johnson winning by double digits.

Might as well make it 20 or 30 points!

I swear you literally just pull stuff out of nowhere and post it.

[MT Treasurer]

Here’s the official announcement:

https://twitter.com/ronjohnsonwi/status/1480182975937531908?s=21

I almost teared up reading this, and I’m not even an emotional person. Honestly overjoyed that he is running again (even if dismayed that he won’t get the absolute landslide victory he deserves). Now more than ever, it’s clear why we desperately need him in the Senate.

[Xing]

I could honestly see Johnson winning by double digits.

Not going to happen in a state with a fairly solid Democratic floor. Best case scenario would be a slightly larger win than his 2010 performance, though that's simply because I see a fairly small range of possibilities here (anything outside of a 3-6 point win for Johnson would be pretty surprising.)