WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

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I'm guessing Ron Kind or Mark Pocan runs, and they'd definitely be better candidates. Both would definitely start out as underdogs, though, and Democrats would probably need this to be an atypical midterm to have a real shot here. Anyone who knows me know I'm no fan of Johnson, but he won't be easy to beat at all in a Democratic midterm.

Also, man, I miss Feingold.

I could see Dem leadership preferring a Greenfield-like candidate here rather than a sitting member of Congress - they won't want Kind vacating his seat in a Biden midterm, and Pocan vacating could create a crowded, messy primary in a seat that a squad-type could certainly win.

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Have heard through the grapevine that Mandela Barnes has been interviewing campaign staff. Not sure if this is for a Senate campaign, potential Evers retirement, or worry about a primary for his current seat.

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Johnson is going to run again. Otherwise he wouldn’t keep the dog and pony show going.

I want him to run again, partially to once again disprove the DC-minded concept of electability.

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Yeah, you vote in that insurrectionist sympathizer and all around quack!  That'll show those DC aristocrats!

Yes, if you live in Wisconsin and want to 'disprove the DC-minded concept of electability,' how about flipping a Senate seat blue in a swing state during a good GOP year? Of course, you could just elect the rich businessman and politician who doesn't think your vote is legitimate if you live in a swing state (I imagine you do; your image and comment suggest you reside in Wisconsin) and voted for Biden to a third term in the Senate.

And if you want to disprove the concept of electability, you should move to Illinois' 16th District and cast your vote in 2022 in the GOP primary for Adam Kinzinger - one of the 10 House Republicans who chose integrity and honesty over insurrection - because it currently seems like he will not win remomination.

Certainly the Wisconsin Republicans must have somebody more electable than the incumbent two-term Senator who has won multiple competitive elections.

All kidding aside, I think many observers (particularly in partisan media) tend to conflate "inspires the most impassioned support/opposition" with "is popular/unpopular" when this is almost never the case. I really don't see how Johnson isn't at least somewhat favored at the moment, with the potential to lose ground if the climate begins to favor Democrats. I suspect he knows this, which is why he's waiting as long as possible to announce his re-election.

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I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

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I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

Given that it's Wisconsin, he probably still has a high single digits lead. Polling in the state is notoriously inaccurate.

Breaking my personal policy of not responding to you to note that this same person's polling had Trump +1 in Wisconsin in their final 2020 poll, Evers +2/Baldwin +8 in their final 2018 poll, and Trump/Clinton tied in their final 2016 poll.

Internal polling and public polling are not the same, folks.

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I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

Is this the same "colleague" who had Dolan leading in a Ohio tracker poll..

Can y'all just be nice and respectful that we have an actual pollster here to give us some insights instead of giving them attitude?

It's a legitimate question.. I make no apologies in that I express skepticism in data from wholly anonymous sources.

No, it's not the same person. Fair question!

(for the record, Dem pollsters are generally not good at polling GOP primaries, and vice versa)

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I don’t think Johnson was ever ahead by "high single digits" unless his inflated lead was just the result of the disparity in name recognition between the incumbent and his unknown D challengers and the undecideds were always very D-leaning.

Yes, probably more likely than not. I didn't get details on changes in vote share or favorability/job approval, which is of course a much stronger indicator of growth/erosion of support than changes in margin.

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I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

What are the percentages then and now, and are there any theories for the difference

Didn't get percentages. My guess is that it's due to Barnes/Lasry (and I presume other Dems?) mostly having the airwaves to themselves and running exclusively positive ads for the time being.

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https://twitter.com/DanielBice/status/1552308228750544902?s=20&t=QjGZZ2-eCpJ...

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Obviously very good news for Barnes, and he'll now be able to pre-empt the ad blitz that the NRSC had scheduled for immediately after the primary.

Really excellent coordination/planning and I have a strong feeling the excellent Ben Wikler played a big role in it.

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https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1570851308621664259?s=20&t=YOWLN3zJvr-n9NK...

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Barnes was the wrong candidate for this race. Johnson remains the luckiest guy in Republican politics.

Not just directed at you, but one of the earliest and costliest faux pas you can commit when running against a consistently successful & battle-tested incumbent (esp. one that you’ve underestimated three times in a row) is to chalk their entire success up to mere luck just because their ideology/voting record/rhetoric doesn’t align with yours or with your preconceptions of what a "swing state" Senator's ideology/voting rhetoric/rhetoric should look like. I only mention this because I’ve seen Democrats on here and people in general fall into this trap whenever they have disdain for a particular incumbent (Republicans with Jon Tester, Democrats with Ron Johnson, etc.).

Part of the reason Democrats thought they could get away with nominating Barnes is because they assumed the 'extremism'/'radical liberal' attacks wouldn’t work in this race since voters would perceive Johnson as even less moderate and more 'extremist.' However, the man obviously has strengths in his own right which are clearly unrelated to 'ideology'-

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This seems like a very basic ad, but when you dissect it, it’s actually remarkable how many themes/key parts of the candidate's messaging are condensed and interwoven here in merely 30 seconds.

I agree with what you've laid out here though I don't think this being true and Johnson being remarkably lucky are mutually exclusive (and the same seems true of Tester).