WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://eu.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/22/wisconsin-election-tom-nelson-files-statement-candidacy-senate/3738479001/

"Nothing to announce," Nelson said Thursday night. "Just a filing."

Outagamie voted 53.1% Trump - 40.5% Clinton.

[Not Me, Us]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

[Mr.Phips]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Also results in a prior race don’t always make someone a weak or strong candidate.  Susan Collins came in a poor third in the Maine governors race in 1994 before winning a senate seat in 1996.

[Roll Roons]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Depends. Against Johnson, there might be a small opening. Against Gallagher? Hell no.

[Gracile]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Depends. Against Johnson, there might be a small opening. Against Gallagher? Hell no.

No, it's not winnable in a Biden midterm, period.

[Xing]

I'm guessing Ron Kind or Mark Pocan runs, and they'd definitely be better candidates. Both would definitely start out as underdogs, though, and Democrats would probably need this to be an atypical midterm to have a real shot here. Anyone who knows me know I'm no fan of Johnson, but he won't be easy to beat at all in a Democratic midterm.

Also, man, I miss Feingold.

[Pollster]

I'm guessing Ron Kind or Mark Pocan runs, and they'd definitely be better candidates. Both would definitely start out as underdogs, though, and Democrats would probably need this to be an atypical midterm to have a real shot here. Anyone who knows me know I'm no fan of Johnson, but he won't be easy to beat at all in a Democratic midterm.

Also, man, I miss Feingold.

I could see Dem leadership preferring a Greenfield-like candidate here rather than a sitting member of Congress - they won't want Kind vacating his seat in a Biden midterm, and Pocan vacating could create a crowded, messy primary in a seat that a squad-type could certainly win.

[GALeftist]

U N B E A T A B L E T I T A N M I K E G A L L A G H E R

[Mr.Phips]

I'm guessing Ron Kind or Mark Pocan runs, and they'd definitely be better candidates. Both would definitely start out as underdogs, though, and Democrats would probably need this to be an atypical midterm to have a real shot here. Anyone who knows me know I'm no fan of Johnson, but he won't be easy to beat at all in a Democratic midterm.

Also, man, I miss Feingold.

I could see Dem leadership preferring a Greenfield-like candidate here rather than a sitting member of Congress - they won't want Kind vacating his seat in a Biden midterm, and Pocan vacating could create a crowded, messy primary in a seat that a squad-type could certainly win.

I don’t like the idea at all of taking people like Kind, Axne, and Finkenbuar out of swing House seats for a very uphill Senate run.

I also don’t like the idea of taking Katie Porter out of a swing House seat for Kamala Harris’ Senate seat as pretty much any Dem can win California without costing Dems a House seat (although I think they need to replace Harris with a woman of color).

[Not Me, Us]

I'm guessing Ron Kind or Mark Pocan runs, and they'd definitely be better candidates. Both would definitely start out as underdogs, though, and Democrats would probably need this to be an atypical midterm to have a real shot here. Anyone who knows me know I'm no fan of Johnson, but he won't be easy to beat at all in a Democratic midterm.

Also, man, I miss Feingold.

I could see Dem leadership preferring a Greenfield-like candidate here rather than a sitting member of Congress - they won't want Kind vacating his seat in a Biden midterm, and Pocan vacating could create a crowded, messy primary in a seat that a squad-type could certainly win.

I don’t like the idea at all of taking people like Kind, Axne, and Finkenbuar out of swing House seats for a very uphill Senate run.

I also don’t like the idea of taking Katie Porter out of a swing House seat for Kamala Harris’ Senate seat as pretty much any Dem can win California without costing Dems a House seat (although I think they need to replace Harris with a woman of color).

Odds are, Kind, Axne, and Finkenauer are DOA in a Biden midterm anyway. If we're gonna lose their sets anyway, we might as well try and get a Senate seat out of it.

[Mr.Phips]

I'm guessing Ron Kind or Mark Pocan runs, and they'd definitely be better candidates. Both would definitely start out as underdogs, though, and Democrats would probably need this to be an atypical midterm to have a real shot here. Anyone who knows me know I'm no fan of Johnson, but he won't be easy to beat at all in a Democratic midterm.

Also, man, I miss Feingold.

I could see Dem leadership preferring a Greenfield-like candidate here rather than a sitting member of Congress - they won't want Kind vacating his seat in a Biden midterm, and Pocan vacating could create a crowded, messy primary in a seat that a squad-type could certainly win.

I don’t like the idea at all of taking people like Kind, Axne, and Finkenbuar out of swing House seats for a very uphill Senate run.

I also don’t like the idea of taking Katie Porter out of a swing House seat for Kamala Harris’ Senate seat as pretty much any Dem can win California without costing Dems a House seat (although I think they need to replace Harris with a woman of color).

Odds are, Kind, Axne, and Finkenauer are DOA in a Biden midterm anyway. If we're gonna lose their sets anyway, we might as well try and get a Senate seat out of it.

That strategy basically means Democrats are giving up on the House before the 2022 election even begins.

[MT Treasurer]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Depends. Against Johnson, there might be a small opening. Against Gallagher? Hell no.

No, it's not winnable in a Biden midterm, period.

Also, I don’t get why he thinks Johnson is a "weak" incumbent or that Gallagher is more likely to win statewide than Johnson. Just because you personally don’t like/like either candidate doesn’t mean they’re inherently more/less "electable" than the other, something many people here need to understand.

At this early stage of the cycle/race, I’d rate this Lean R, but it’s obviously a must-win for Republicans.

[Heebie Jeebie]

AG Josh Kaul should run.  He'd be an extremely good candidate.

[TJ in Oregon]

I think Gallagher is a little overrated in that, despite being personally very popular in his district, he lacks a natural base in a statewide primary and an obvious set of issues to run on that speaks to the current civil 'discussions' within the Republican Party. He may be able to overcome this and be a great candidate, but I certainly don't see it as a guarantee.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Depends. Against Johnson, there might be a small opening. Against Gallagher? Hell no.

No, it's not winnable in a Biden midterm, period.

Republicans would be heavily favoured but I don't think you can say it's already safe R given the kinds of overperformances relative to the environment (even with trends on the wrong side, in some case) in recent Senate cycles. Cory Gardner 2014, Sherrod Brown 2018 etc all come to mind.

[Mr.Phips]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Depends. Against Johnson, there might be a small opening. Against Gallagher? Hell no.

No, it's not winnable in a Biden midterm, period.

Republicans would be heavily favoured but I don't think you can say it's already safe R given the kinds of overperformances relative to the environment (even with trends on the wrong side, in some case) in recent Senate cycles. Cory Gardner 2014, Sherrod Brown 2018 etc all come to mind.

Gardner and Brown both won in very favorable years for their parties.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Depends. Against Johnson, there might be a small opening. Against Gallagher? Hell no.

No, it's not winnable in a Biden midterm, period.

Republicans would be heavily favoured but I don't think you can say it's already safe R given the kinds of overperformances relative to the environment (even with trends on the wrong side, in some case) in recent Senate cycles. Cory Gardner 2014, Sherrod Brown 2018 etc all come to mind.

Gardner and Brown both won in very favorable years for their parties.

I picked those two seats because both were trending away from the victors and probably had a baseline quite unfavourable to these victors in both cases (as evidenced at least in part by the downballot results in those states - Hickenloopoer, DeWine, etc.). I'll leave out MT because it's politically quixotic and MO because of the exceptionally poor Republican candidate, but one could also consider IN and ND in 2012 (they were won in a less polarised time, but already those states had a heavier Republican lean than the one WI might have in 2022). Democrats didn't win MO in 2016, but a Kanderesque overperformance probably wouldn't be needed to put a WI Dem over the line.

[Mr.Phips]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Depends. Against Johnson, there might be a small opening. Against Gallagher? Hell no.

No, it's not winnable in a Biden midterm, period.

Republicans would be heavily favoured but I don't think you can say it's already safe R given the kinds of overperformances relative to the environment (even with trends on the wrong side, in some case) in recent Senate cycles. Cory Gardner 2014, Sherrod Brown 2018 etc all come to mind.

Gardner and Brown both won in very favorable years for their parties.

I picked those two seats because both were trending away from the victors and probably had a baseline quite unfavourable to these victors in both cases (as evidenced at least in part by the downballot results in those states - Hickenloopoer, DeWine, etc.). I'll leave out MT because it's politically quixotic and MO because of the exceptionally poor Republican candidate, but one could also consider IN and ND in 2012 (they were won in a less polarised time, but already those states had a heavier Republican lean than the one WI might have in 2022). Democrats didn't win MO in 2016, but a Kanderesque overperformance probably wouldn't be needed to put a WI Dem over the line.

All of these were in favorable (or neutral) environments.  In a wave environment (which 2022 will likely be), no non incumbent is overcoming the lean/trend of a state (except Joe Manchin in 2010 when Dems were still incredibly strong downballot).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pretty weak candidate. Lost WI-8 in a landslide in 2016.

Running a “strong” candidate still won’t win Dems this seat in a Biden midterm.

Depends. Against Johnson, there might be a small opening. Against Gallagher? Hell no.

No, it's not winnable in a Biden midterm, period.

Republicans would be heavily favoured but I don't think you can say it's already safe R given the kinds of overperformances relative to the environment (even with trends on the wrong side, in some case) in recent Senate cycles. Cory Gardner 2014, Sherrod Brown 2018 etc all come to mind.

Gardner and Brown both won in very favorable years for their parties.

I picked those two seats because both were trending away from the victors and probably had a baseline quite unfavourable to these victors in both cases (as evidenced at least in part by the downballot results in those states - Hickenloopoer, DeWine, etc.). I'll leave out MT because it's politically quixotic and MO because of the exceptionally poor Republican candidate, but one could also consider IN and ND in 2012 (they were won in a less polarised time, but already those states had a heavier Republican lean than the one WI might have in 2022). Democrats didn't win MO in 2016, but a Kanderesque overperformance probably wouldn't be needed to put a WI Dem over the line.

All of these were in favorable (or neutral) environments.  In a wave environment (which 2022 will likely be), no non incumbent is overcoming the lean/trend of a state (except Joe Manchin in 2010 when Dems were still incredibly strong downballot).

Your 'safe R' rating is predicated on it being a wave environment which you believe 2022 is only 'likely' to be and that in itself is reason enough to downgrade the race to likely R.

That said, these races were not all in favourable/neutral environments relative to the previous races in these states. The national environment being only slightly worse for Democrats in 2012 (compared to 2006) didn't stop the nasty state-level trends (and swings elsewhere on the ballots) in most of these races. ND 2012 was probably a significantly more favourable environment for Republicans than WI 2022 although there is less considerably less ticket-splitting these days.

[S019]

I think Kind will run in the end, and this will be competitive, even in a Biden midterm, but I probably can't see Democrats pulling it off, but it's not like Iowa where it'll be a done deal even before the cycle starts. Also, there's a reason Republicans are pouring money into races against WWC seat Democrats like Kind, Bustos, and DeFazio, they see them as clearly vulnerable in 2022 and if the nonentity running against Kind comes within 10 this year, he's a goner in a more Rep environment against a better opponent. This state was still 5 pts right of the nation in 2016 and looks to be around there this year and it seems to swing more with the national environment than say PA, so this will definitely be a tough race, I'd say Lean R, right now, honestly, but I expect both parties to aggressively contest this race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely D along with AZ, NH, and PA

[EastAnglianLefty]

I'm guessing Ron Kind or Mark Pocan runs, and they'd definitely be better candidates. Both would definitely start out as underdogs, though, and Democrats would probably need this to be an atypical midterm to have a real shot here. Anyone who knows me know I'm no fan of Johnson, but he won't be easy to beat at all in a Democratic midterm.

Also, man, I miss Feingold.

I could see Dem leadership preferring a Greenfield-like candidate here rather than a sitting member of Congress - they won't want Kind vacating his seat in a Biden midterm, and Pocan vacating could create a crowded, messy primary in a seat that a squad-type could certainly win.

I don’t like the idea at all of taking people like Kind, Axne, and Finkenbuar out of swing House seats for a very uphill Senate run.

I also don’t like the idea of taking Katie Porter out of a swing House seat for Kamala Harris’ Senate seat as pretty much any Dem can win California without costing Dems a House seat (although I think they need to replace Harris with a woman of color).

Odds are, Kind, Axne, and Finkenauer are DOA in a Biden midterm anyway. If we're gonna lose their sets anyway, we might as well try and get a Senate seat out of it.

Even if we accepted that this was true, how exactly would Democrats win Wisconsin in a mid-term if they were getting hammered in WI-3 anyway?

[Mr. Smith]

What are the odds of 2022 turning into a Republican 2018, and this seat goes the way of Bill Nelson?

[Mr.Phips]

What are the odds of 2022 turning into a Republican 2018, and this seat goes the way of Bill Nelson?

Florida is to the right of the country is a whole and so is Wisconsin. 

[S019]

What are the odds of 2022 turning into a Republican 2018, and this seat goes the way of Bill Nelson?

PA is a likelier contender for that, especially if someone like Lamb runs who can probably keep R margins down in the rurals (as long as he doesn't face Fitzpatrick, who'd do well in the suburbs to compensate for the rural underperformance). I guess the same thing could happen here if Kind faced someone like Scott Walker, who isn't well liked in Driftless, but WOW would come out in full force for Walker, so who knows