WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely D along with AZ, NH, and PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What are the odds of 2022 turning into a Republican 2018, and this seat goes the way of Bill Nelson?

All Dem Govs including Everrs and Fetterman should be reelected 🤗🤗🤗

Senate map 2022

Gov map 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Anyone remember "Taxin' Tom Nelson?" That was the ad Gallagher ran against him in 2016.

What about tax cut and oil subsidizies for the rich in the middle of a Pandemic, no one wanted the 2017/ tax cuts except Rs, which was a bust

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/MarkPocan/status/1335784970858729477
Hmm...

Tbf he might just be excited about replacing him.

He's a Baldwin stalker, he replaced her in the county board, state legislature and Congress whenever she moved up. He'll run for her senate seat when she runs for president.

Seriously though too left for a statewide candidate and terrible optics of running a Madison person

There's no way Feingold Baldwin Pocan can win!  He's too liberal!  But seriously, if he runs he will probably be an underdog.

Feingold lost as much as I liked him and Baldwin has never been tested in a bad year for the democrats which 2022 will probably be. Wisconsin has changed since the days of Feingold, sadly a Madison liberal firebrand isn't winning it.

2022 isn't gonna be a bad yr unless Biden approvals hit 44 in 1962/1998/2002 when a Prez approvals were at 50 D's gained seats

I here this all the time, the reason why Trump lost seats in 2018 he was under 50 and has had a substained approval at 45 percent and Obama lost seats due to 11 percent Unemployment

As my maps indicate above, it's gonna be a base Election, not an R wave, except for IA

A generic D can beat Ron Johnson, don't forget Gary Johnson helped Ron Johnson and Pat Toomey narrowly win, Johnson didn't win on his own behalf,  Gary Johnson split the vote

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Johnson needs to go WI is populist state and Evers and Baldwin have done a decent job after Paul Ryan left, whom wanted to get rid of Medicaid and create a voucher program. Also, Walker is gone. Tom Nelson will defeat one of the last Conservatives in WI, due to the fact split party Delegations are leaving, in the Senate. The North is voting same party Delegations like the South, 2014 has chas changed that

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The biggest Recruit for Democrats is already OUT:
Rep. Mark Pocan says NO to Johnson Challenge
https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1346141244326629376

he'd lose anyway tho imo, he's a socialist

Ron Johnson is the most vulnerable R incumbent out there and Rs know it, just hanging onto hope that Johnson somehow wins like Perdue, that's why he is considering retirement

Tom Nelson is already in

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R if Johnson runs again, Lean R if he doesn't.

WI is gonna be competetive, didn't you say GA was Lean R, I think you did

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don’t really get why people think Baldwin is underrated. She’s never had to run in a R-leaning or even neutral environment and won by double digits because she faced one of the worst Republican candidates of the cycle in a massive D wave year. Obviously she could win if 2024 is another favorable year for the party (and I do expect her to outrun Biden/Harris by 1-2 or so), but I don’t see how she has more of a brand than someone like Tester or even Casey. She would have done worse than Stabenow had she faced a similarly credible Republican candidate.

2022/ is a blue Senate map unlike 2014/2018, D's lost Senate seats in Red map. It's hard to imagine D's losing WI and PA where Ds are fav to win Gov races with Fetterman and Tony Evers

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/1/19/wisconsin-voters-support-johnson-resignation

According to this poll, 60% of WI voters support replacing Ron Johnson. This seat, in my opinion, is still Likely R. After all, polls showed Thom Tillis to be just as hated, and he won re-election.

Here we go again with WI Lean R,  again for the 100th time WI in a purple state, we won it in 2018/2020, with Baldwin and Biden. WI was won by Walker and Paul Ryan, they are retired

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Looks like it’s going to be a landslide for Senator-elect Replace Ron Johnson, folks!

No one said it's gonna be a landslide but the idea that Rs are hypocritical as they think Evers is too old to be Gov and he is the same age as Johnson and the idea that Biden is too old to be Prez and Trump can run in 2024 flies in the face of logic

Ron Johnson isn't Scott Walker or Paul Ryan and neither is Kevin Mccarthy. That's why so many Rs retired in 2018/ the R Majority is lost

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After that comment by Ron Johnson, Johnson doesn't have Walker or Paul Ryan to cover for him, he is all by himself

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares, who get nominated, Johnson didn't serve himself any good by saying the mob riot wasn't incited by Trump and neither did McCarthy

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares, who get nominated, Johnson didn't serve himself any good by saying the mob riot wasn't incited by Trump and neither did McCarthy

Not that anyone will care about this in November 2022. And those people who do won't vote for this guy anyway.

You think that soccer mom's whom liked Walker and Paul Ryan whom voted for Johnson in 2010/2016 by only 4 pts over Feingold that's 400K voted don't care about. I think they will.  WC females are gonna be swing voters that will carry Charlie Crist over the top over DeSantis that voted for DeSantis by 0.5 in 2018

Our Gov T Evers have a 50% approval rating and can carry our D nominee over the top

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson is gonna lose anyways regardless of if it's Barnes or Nelson, due to fact D's keep gaining seats in every Election cycle in the state legislatures. That's what Rs on the forum don't understand that it's only a matter of time Ds take both Houses of state legislatures in PA, MI and WI

But, Barnes still has a yr to jump into primary for Senate, Evers is running for reelection

Also, Johnson keeps objecting to the 1200 and 1400 checks, and would objected to it if Rs were in the Senate Majority, that goodness we won Majority

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson only won by 300 K votes not a landslide just like Rs only won NC by 150 K votes and we have Gov Cooper and Rs now think that NC is a permanent red state

D's are poised to win both

Unlike FL where DeSANTIS would be far more Vulnerable I'd he was running with Scott, whom almost cost him the Gov in 2018 than running with Rubio. FL isn't in play this time around

Biden improved on Hillary performance in WOW county.
Dems have a 2/3 chance to flip both WI, PA and keep GA and
for a 52/48 Senate and a 1/3hancee to win NC and we don't have a Gov candidate for OH

Dems can beat DeWine in a wave if John Cranley mounts a candidacy

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kind isn't running, he wants to be Gov, in 2026 Barnes may enter race, but Tom NELSON had the money ADVANTAGE.

But Barnes have a better chance to def a WC candidate than In PA and NC. Jackson, Fetterman, and Ryan are well liked by WC Females that no longer watch Fox, but watch CSPAN, to Insurrectionists

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think we should let the voters decide not pollsters, if Barnes enters and a poll shows he competetive, I will support him, but we can't afford to lose Fetterman and Jackson whom have natl D's behind them

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Congratulations on winning back the Treasurer's office, Republicans.

.

JOHNSON is gonna lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Treasury isn't that important and he knows it, the Senate seat is gone, Johnson could have won but he made outrageous comment's about the Left movement and the cops are the ones that protected him not because White Evangelicals are well behaved, Right militia groups killed 4 Civil Rights leaders not left Militia

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Kind runs for Gov 2026, he doesn't have to run for Senate, Johnson has made the Rs vulnerable in down ballot races except the Treasurer office, that's why Evers is leading by 5 and Nelson is leading by 4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/14/politics/sarah-godlewski-senate-run-ron-johnson/index.html

Wisconsin Treasurer Sarah Godlewski launches Senate campaign as Ron Johnson freezes GOP field

She seemed likeable in her announcement video. And she outran Evers in 2018 by 2 points.

She outran Evers by 2 points because neither candidate in that race had any name recognition and liberals had a huge partisan advantage, not because of any statewide affection for her. Lots of voters on both sides left the state treasurer race blank. There was also a Constitution Party candidate who took over 2% of the vote.

Anyways, remains to be seen whether she stands any chance against Johnson. It's an uphill battle, but November 2022 is a ways away and who knows what potential scandals could shake up the race. Any partisan advantage that was there in 2018 that carried Democrats just over the finish line in most WI races will evaporate next year.

Evers and Nelson has been lesding in every poll since Johnson silly commens about the Insurrectionists, White Evangelicals are so well
behaved, and the cops lost their lives over this

Conservatives want us to forget about the Insurrectionists, no we won't and Rs want to give tax cuts and Johnson voted against the minimum wage

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook and Sabato made a strategic mistake in rating WI, as Lean R, Nate Silver always have it 278 EC blue wall, all they have to do is follow his ratings and WI is a D2 state by Cook standings anyways

Everyone knows that WARNOCK is the most endangered D running due to runoff scenario

Now, Rs in almost every post quote Cook and Sabato ratings on WI and it's a D 2 state which Cook rates it himself

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson made outrageous comment's about Left Militia Groups being the bad guy and the cops protected him from QAnon support on the Insurrectionists.

He also, was part of Benghazi and Hilary.  Nelson and Evers have been leading in every poll since Johnson outrageous comment's

Lean D, Cook has WI as D plus 2 state, he has the Gov race anyways at Lean D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I now prefer the Treasurer in this race over Nelson, anyone of them are better than Johnson whom has cost the R Nominee Support over his support for QAnonon

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Likely Dem takeover along with PA and NH we will win due to Scott Brown scenario, HE LOST IN 2014/ like Sununu will, once he gets scrutinized by the press by vetoing the Minimum wage in 2019.

Evers has the same Approvals as DeSantis, Johnson own outrageous comment's on QANON support gave the Gov and Senate race away. Every polls shows Nelson and Evers ahead WI, PA, NH are 51/49  D states and MI is a 52/48 State by Cook PVI

But, I know Rs think is Lean R, try hey want it to be due Statehood and DC