WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[SnowLabrador]

he might be too liberal to win, I think Kind or Barnes(maybe?) has the best shot

Kind is better off trying to hold his House seat (unless redistricting makes it even worse for him).  He’s not winning statewide in a midterm.

I agree, if Baldwin won by 11 points due to being progressive, then Pocan would be a good candidate as well. Although he could have simply been saying that he hopes Johnson is defeated.

[SnowLabrador]

Likely R if Johnson runs again, Lean R if he doesn't.

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/1/19/wisconsin-voters-support-johnson-resignation

According to this poll, 60% of WI voters support replacing Ron Johnson. This seat, in my opinion, is still Likely R. After all, polls showed Thom Tillis to be just as hated, and he won re-election.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Johnson is going to retire.

[SnowLabrador]

What makes Barnes such a bad candidate?

[SnowLabrador]

I also wonder why Barnes isn't a great candidate??

What makes Barnes such a bad candidate?

Who said he was? I think he's probably the strongest candidate the Dems can put up here (Kind is probably equally strong, but he's not running)

Godlewski is probably the strongest. Barnes mounted a challenge against loony Lena Taylor but caused a fracture in the black community over it. He’s strongly disliked in the burbs and he also got caught lying about completely his degree. He doesn’t play well.

Noted. In that case, hopefully Godlewski wins the primary. We have to beat Johnson.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm all in for Godlewski. We can't nominate Barnes.

[SnowLabrador]

Johnson's certainly fundraising as though he is running. Lean R either way.

[SnowLabrador]

Team RonJon put out an anti Barnes fundraising email.

Is that a sign that Johnson is (probably) running again?

[SnowLabrador]

Democrats are the most incompetent political party in world history. Of course, it's not likely to matter for this particular race; GCB polling indicates a red wave, and the Democrats cannot win WI-SEN in a red wave.

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R -> Likely R.

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R -> Likely R.

How so? If Johnson ends up not running, this is straight tossup.

Johnson is more likely to lose a general election than someone like Mike Gallagher. Of course, this will be a very hard seat for Democrats to win in the likely 2022 environment.

[SnowLabrador]

I think a lot of people are forgetting how Ron Johnson managed to win in 2016 after being abandoned by the GOP nationally & while running against someone who was seen as a top tier recruit for the democrats.

I certainly am not. He is hands down the favorite if he runs again, which I expect he will.

He's definitely going to win if he runs again, but I don't know if he will.

[SnowLabrador]

Yall sound like the people saying Cunninghams scandal wouldn't matter. Johnson has always been quite conservative and outspoken but it wasn't until recently(2020ish) that he really started putting his foot in his mouth. I highly doubt these comments are going to play well in a swing state. (Of course, if Barnes is the nominee it doesn't really matter)

Scandals only matter when Democrats are involved.

[SnowLabrador]

That endorsement by Warren will just show extreme Barnes is. He will repeatedly tied to Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and socialist policies.

Everything she touches is a problem, from her DNA to endorsements like Maya Wiley. Dems should pick a better candidate here and Lamb in PA. Have the DSCC endorse Beasley in NC who is better positioned to take advantage of demographics.

Beasley sucks, she supports the filibuster.

[SnowLabrador]

Yes, Barnes is a progressive, but that's not why he's going to lose.

[SnowLabrador]

Kiss of death

Eh, it doesn't really matter. Safe R in 2022's environment.

[SnowLabrador]

Based on that wording, he's probably going to run for re-election.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't think it matters too much whether Johnson runs or retires from the standpoint of what party will win. It's very hard to see a Democrat winning this race in this environment.

[SnowLabrador]

Here’s the official announcement:

https://twitter.com/ronjohnsonwi/status/1480182975937531908?s=21

Johnson's probably not going to lose, but if he does lose despite the national environment, I think a key reason will be that he says he'd rather retire. Barnes, or whoever his opponent is, NEEDS to pounce on this.

[SnowLabrador]

I could honestly see Johnson winning by double digits.

[SnowLabrador]

I just saw an anti-Johnson ad during halftime of the SF-DAL game.  It was on Madison TV, not sure if it was the whole state or just here.  It was from a Dem-aligned PAC and talking points painted him as a member of the Washington Swamp, he broke his term-limit promise, and pushed for a tax loophole as his net worth skyrocketed while in office.

The term limit attack will not convince anyone. We've known since forever that tax cuts for the rich don't trickle down; conservative voters do not care Republicans think the billionaire real estate mogul is anti-estahblishment, and they've already been buying RoJo's outsider narrative for a decade. It's not going to work.

This. They need to attack him on his extremism.

[SnowLabrador]

This. They need to attack him on his extremism.

I'm not certain that will work either.

I don't think anything will work in a red wave, which 2022 will be.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

Given that it's Wisconsin, he probably still has a high single digits lead. Polling in the state is notoriously inaccurate.

[SnowLabrador]

I get people want to give Johnson some incumbency credit or bc its a red wave year, but Johnson is quite literally doing everything he possibly can to tank this race.

If Democrats cant win this race, it would be a total failure on their part, even in this redder environment.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1539311756450971648

Democrats and failure are synonymous.