SC-SEN 2022: Could Joe Cunningham make this race competitive?

[Calthrina950]

I’ll be voting third party or writing in.

He seems set on running for governor,  which I think he’ll lose by a slightly smaller margin than normal, though if HR1 passes and causes SC-1 to be redrawn he may run there. I think the reason he’s not doing it this time for sure is that he doesn’t think he could flip it back in it’s current form.

Looks like I might be right on this.

Do you think it is plausible that Scott gets over 60% again? Given his general popularity and the extreme weakness of his Democratic opponent, I believe that it could happen. Matthews could sink almost to the levels that Alvin Greene reached in 2010.  

I could see him getting close but America has just become far more polarized since then. Contrary to popular belief, Scott really didn't do particularly amazing with the African American vote and his heavy overperformances of Trump were in the metro areas of the state. A lot of these overperformances were like 30% + relative to Trump 202 so those will be very difficult if not impossible for him to replicate, and it'll be hard to make up for those losses with significant rural gains over Trump where he basically ran even.

So perhaps we might see a result of ~58-35-7% or something along those lines? It would represent slippage for Scott from 2016 but would still be a better performance than either Graham or Trump in 2020, and better than what McMaster will manage. I believe McMaster will beat Cunningham ~53-45%.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’ll be voting third party or writing in.

He seems set on running for governor,  which I think he’ll lose by a slightly smaller margin than normal, though if HR1 passes and causes SC-1 to be redrawn he may run there. I think the reason he’s not doing it this time for sure is that he doesn’t think he could flip it back in it’s current form.

Looks like I might be right on this.

Do you think it is plausible that Scott gets over 60% again? Given his general popularity and the extreme weakness of his Democratic opponent, I believe that it could happen. Matthews could sink almost to the levels that Alvin Greene reached in 2010.  

I could see him getting close but America has just become far more polarized since then. Contrary to popular belief, Scott really didn't do particularly amazing with the African American vote and his heavy overperformances of Trump were in the metro areas of the state. A lot of these overperformances were like 30% + relative to Trump 202 so those will be very difficult if not impossible for him to replicate, and it'll be hard to make up for those losses with significant rural gains over Trump where he basically ran even.

So perhaps we might see a result of ~58-35-7% or something along those lines? It would represent slippage for Scott from 2016 but would still be a better performance than either Graham or Trump in 2020, and better than what McMaster will manage. I believe McMaster will beat Cunningham ~53-45%.

Ye that seems about fair, perhaps too many 3rd parties, but ye

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol, Joe Cunningham is gonna win 8 more weeks

[scared of myself]

Will Scott win Jasper County?

[BenjiG98]

Will Scott win Jasper County?

I would be surprised if he didn't, frankly.

[Senator Incitatus]

Elsewhere I called Franken the worst Democratic nominee of the cycle, but I forgot about Matthews.

[Calthrina950]

Elsewhere I called Franken the worst Democratic nominee of the cycle, but I forgot about Matthews.

I wonder if Scott might be able to break 60% this year, like he did in 2014 and 2016. I doubt it, and I'm thinking he's probably going to get in the upper 50s.

[BenjiG98]

Elsewhere I called Franken the worst Democratic nominee of the cycle, but I forgot about Matthews.

I wonder if Scott might be able to break 60% this year, like he did in 2014 and 2016. I doubt it, and I'm thinking he's probably going to get in the upper 50s.

He probably gets his 2016 map, flipping Jasper but losing Charleston County.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Elsewhere I called Franken the worst Democratic nominee of the cycle, but I forgot about Matthews.

I wonder if Scott might be able to break 60% this year, like he did in 2014 and 2016. I doubt it, and I'm thinking he's probably going to get in the upper 50s.

As a South Carolina voter, Scott is pretty popular. I’m 90% a democrat voter but even I have been on the fence about voting for him. I worked in a congressman’s office last year and if a caller was a king for help out of district, his office would the one I’d refer them to (especially if they lived in Wilson’s district). He’s very popular in the Charleston suburbs which have become the big margin driver in the state, in part because that’s where he’s from.

He’s been able to do what Graham has been killing himself trying to do – walk the line of keeping the hard right upset content without alienating the more moderate Charlestonians. He is one of the few republicans in office atm I like.

If Matthew’s only carried Richland, Allendale Williamsburg, Lee,  Bamburg, Fairfield, Marion Orangeburg I wouldn’t be shocked.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Elsewhere I called Franken the worst Democratic nominee of the cycle, but I forgot about Matthews.

I wonder if Scott might be able to break 60% this year, like he did in 2014 and 2016. I doubt it, and I'm thinking he's probably going to get in the upper 50s.

As a South Carolina voter, Scott is pretty popular. I’m 90% a democrat voter but even I have been on the fence about voting for him. I worked in a congressman’s office last year and if a caller was a king for help out of district, his office would the one I’d refer them to (especially if they lived in Wilson’s district). He’s very popular in the Charleston suburbs which have become the big margin driver in the state, in part because that’s where he’s from.

He’s been able to do what Graham has been killing himself trying to do – walk the line of keeping the hard right upset content without alienating the more moderate Charlestonians. He is one of the few republicans in office atm I like.

If Matthew’s only carried Richland, Allendale Williamsburg, Lee,  Bamburg, Fairfield, Marion Orangeburg I wouldn’t be shocked.

Damn I almost got it exactly, Matthew’s carried Sumter by just 400 votes or else I would’ve been spot on!

[BloJo94]

Scott said 2022 would be his last senate election, then this happens.https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1593655551644139521He’s running for President isn’t he.

[Suburbia]

Wait, Democrats are criticizing her for this? But I thought all left-wingers loved bashing white people and would eat it all up!!!!

She should drop out, obviously.

Haha a lot of leftists, especially Black women leftists speak like that about white people. And then wonder why they lost in GA, NC, SC, FL.

Tiffany Cross, the woman on MSNBC who got fired, has the same ideology.

Dems will have to curtail this woke antiwhite stuff eventually, eventually the woke eat each other. First casualty was the white union men, the scare Latinos gave Dems this year I hope they learn from.....Asians in NY trended R

Intersectionality has limits, and a lot of wokists like Matthews are in the Democratic Party.

Scott's career is over anyway. He has a final term, make some legislation. He has no base in the GOP other than the "colorblind" wing of the GOP..........he's an unmarried black man.

Not going to go well in the Republican Party.