WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both Evers and Barnes have had nicer things to say about domestic abusers and child rapists than about Kyle Rittenhouse.

I think both are underdogs at this point. Evers has never been particularly popular, and Barnes seems like the kind of candidate who would do very poorly outside of Milwaukee and Madison, in both the WOW counties and the rural areas.

I expect the WOW area to rebound to at least Walker 2018 margins and rural areas keep shifting more and more Republican next year. Also medium sized cities like Appleton and Green Bay to swing Republican significantly too.

Didn't Biden, Obama, Kerry, Gore, and Feingold and Baldwin in 2018 win WI it's a purple state not a Red state.

Biden won WI 3 times 2008/12/2o

IA is now a Red state not a purple state, TX is a purple state

[South Dakota Democrat]

I really don’t buy that Gallagher would outperform Johnson in this race solely because he’s (ostensibly) more 'moderate' — the guy is not tested statewide, seems way too polished in a state that loves its "authentic" elected officials, and has no real distinguishable brand. Johnson's ability to turn every issue (even inflation, deficits, etc.) into a culture-war clash has a record of selling well even in WOW and the Green Bay area (can we dispel with this notion that this kind of messaging only works in rural areas? many posters seem to be unaware of how Johnson actually ran in 2010 and in which parts of the state he really crushed Feingold), and there’s obviously no doubt that he can supercharge rural/small-town turnout for the GOP. Democrats are also somewhat likely to make several strategic mistakes running against him in particular, like recycling the anti-Trump/insurrectionist playbook (did not work for McAuliffe) or running a gazillion ads painting Johnson as an "extremist" or "radical Republican" (something every voter already knows) while doing nothing to dismantle his perceived "authenticity" (same mistake Republicans make when they run against "socialist" Baldwin).

Either way, Republicans aren’t losing this race in a Republican wave environment. Likely R with Johnson or Gallagher.

That logic is just what was plausible for Bill Nelson in 2018 too. I mean it WAS a Dem environment supposedly

I highly doubt Barnes or Nelson will be quite so tactically haphazard like Feingold was [moreso in 2010].

What did Feingold do that was tactically haphazard? (I'm legit asking, hadn't heard that before.)

[Drew]

I really don’t buy that Gallagher would outperform Johnson in this race solely because he’s (ostensibly) more 'moderate' — the guy is not tested statewide, seems way too polished in a state that loves its "authentic" elected officials, and has no real distinguishable brand. Johnson's ability to turn every issue (even inflation, deficits, etc.) into a culture-war clash has a record of selling well even in WOW and the Green Bay area (can we dispel with this notion that this kind of messaging only works in rural areas? many posters seem to be unaware of how Johnson actually ran in 2010 and in which parts of the state he really crushed Feingold), and there’s obviously no doubt that he can supercharge rural/small-town turnout for the GOP. Democrats are also somewhat likely to make several strategic mistakes running against him in particular, like recycling the anti-Trump/insurrectionist playbook (did not work for McAuliffe) or running a gazillion ads painting Johnson as an "extremist" or "radical Republican" (something every voter already knows) while doing nothing to dismantle his perceived "authenticity" (same mistake Republicans make when they run against "socialist" Baldwin).

Either way, Republicans aren’t losing this race in a Republican wave environment. Likely R with Johnson or Gallagher.

That logic is just what was plausible for Bill Nelson in 2018 too. I mean it WAS a Dem environment supposedly

I highly doubt Barnes or Nelson will be quite so tactically haphazard like Feingold was [moreso in 2010].

What did Feingold do that was tactically haphazard? (I'm legit asking, hadn't heard that before.)

I believe he refused to run a negative ad in 2010, for one thing.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I really don’t buy that Gallagher would outperform Johnson in this race solely because he’s (ostensibly) more 'moderate' — the guy is not tested statewide, seems way too polished in a state that loves its "authentic" elected officials, and has no real distinguishable brand. Johnson's ability to turn every issue (even inflation, deficits, etc.) into a culture-war clash has a record of selling well even in WOW and the Green Bay area (can we dispel with this notion that this kind of messaging only works in rural areas? many posters seem to be unaware of how Johnson actually ran in 2010 and in which parts of the state he really crushed Feingold), and there’s obviously no doubt that he can supercharge rural/small-town turnout for the GOP. Democrats are also somewhat likely to make several strategic mistakes running against him in particular, like recycling the anti-Trump/insurrectionist playbook (did not work for McAuliffe) or running a gazillion ads painting Johnson as an "extremist" or "radical Republican" (something every voter already knows) while doing nothing to dismantle his perceived "authenticity" (same mistake Republicans make when they run against "socialist" Baldwin).

Either way, Republicans aren’t losing this race in a Republican wave environment. Likely R with Johnson or Gallagher.

That logic is just what was plausible for Bill Nelson in 2018 too. I mean it WAS a Dem environment supposedly

I highly doubt Barnes or Nelson will be quite so tactically haphazard like Feingold was [moreso in 2010].

What did Feingold do that was tactically haphazard? (I'm legit asking, hadn't heard that before.)

I believe he refused to run a negative ad in 2010, for one thing.

To be fair, he’d won several upset victories by doing his own thing even though it flew in the face of conventional wisdom about how to run a winning campaign; Feingold had more reason than most to think he might’ve found some sort of secret sauce.

[ElectionsGuy]

Both Evers and Barnes have had nicer things to say about domestic abusers and child rapists than about Kyle Rittenhouse.

I think both are underdogs at this point. Evers has never been particularly popular, and Barnes seems like the kind of candidate who would do very poorly outside of Milwaukee and Madison, in both the WOW counties and the rural areas.

Yeah, I think Evers is more vulnerable than Walker was in 2018, and I both predicted Walker winning in 2014 and losing in 2018 (I actually underestimated Walker slightly both times).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both Evers and Barnes have had nicer things to say about domestic abusers and child rapists than about Kyle Rittenhouse.

I think both are underdogs at this point. Evers has never been particularly popular, and Barnes seems like the kind of candidate who would do very poorly outside of Milwaukee and Madison, in both the WOW counties and the rural areas.

Yeah, I think Evers is more vulnerable than Walker was in 2018, and I both predicted Walker winning in 2014 and losing in 2018 (I actually underestimated Walker slightly both times).

Lol Biden Approvals will go up between now and Election, Obama, Biden won the state 3xs Baldwin and Feingold won WI, LOL WI is a purple state not Red state and it's part of 278/304 blue NATE SILVER BLUE WE WILL WIN WI YOU WILL SEE WATCH

It's a Cook plus 2 D state like MI, PA
Walker lead Charter schools to success now it's school on line even for High school Student

Johnson pulls Rd down he praised Insurrectionists and is below 50 percent
They haven't even popped WI or PA

[Coolface’s actual roommate]

Lasry is owned by China
https://mobile.twitter.com/NRSC/status/1468330769890295817

[UWS]

Recently, it is revealed during Barnes' time as a state legislator in 2016, he introduced legislation to eliminate “monetary bail as a condition of release for a defendant charged with” a crime, no matter the severity of the crime. Yes, you read that correctly – a proposal to eliminate prosecutors’ ability to keep dangerous people in custody.

This bill died in committee but came after current Milwaukee County District Attorney John Chisholm supported similar views in his inaugural campaign. Those views came back to light last month after Chisholm set what he later called an “inappropriately low” bail amount ($1,000) in the case of Darrell Brooks, who allegedly killed six people in a Waukesha, WI Christmas parade rampage just weeks after a domestic violence arrest.

If the Barnes bill passed in 2016, Brooks, along with many other criminals, would have been freely walking the streets of Wisconsin for the past 5 years.

https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/2015/related/proposals/ab981

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes is locked in a Primary battle with Tom Nelson he maynot won the primary

[UWS]

Barnes is locked in a Primary battle with Tom Nelson he maynot won the primary

Even if it's Nelson, he hasn't ever won a statewide race. The only statewide race he has run was in 2010 when he was on the Democratic ticket for Governor in 2010 when he was the nominee for LG, and he lost.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The WI race by Cook standards is pure Tossup

[GALeftist]

Recently, it is revealed during Barnes' time as a state legislator in 2016, he introduced legislation to eliminate “monetary bail as a condition of release for a defendant charged with” a crime, no matter the severity of the crime. Yes, you read that correctly – a proposal to eliminate prosecutors’ ability to keep dangerous people in custody.

This bill died in committee but came after current Milwaukee County District Attorney John Chisholm supported similar views in his inaugural campaign. Those views came back to light last month after Chisholm set what he later called an “inappropriately low” bail amount ($1,000) in the case of Darrell Brooks, who allegedly killed six people in a Waukesha, WI Christmas parade rampage just weeks after a domestic violence arrest.

If the Barnes bill passed in 2016, Brooks, along with many other criminals, would have been freely walking the streets of Wisconsin for the past 5 years.

https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/2015/related/proposals/ab981

Cope, cash bail bad. If they're so dangerous why would we let them pay to get out of jail to commit more crimes to begin with? Either they need to be kept in jail for the safety of the community or they don't, how rich they are doesn't enter into it.

[Hoftntop]

Decision expected soon

thehill.com/homenews/campaign/586587-thune-johnson-say-decisions-on-reelection-bids-expected-soon

[😥]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1479504054929833991?t=37xHnXfclKPAwJlHWieaCQ&a...

[Xing]

God damn it.

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1479526132865245186?s=20

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Likely R > Safe R.

[Calthrina950]

Likely R > Safe R.

I wouldn't go that far, but Johnson is favored. If I had to guess, he will defeat Barnes by around mid-single digits this fall.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Likely R > Safe R.

I wouldn't go that far, but Johnson is favored. If I had to guess, he will defeat Barnes by around mid-single digits this fall.

It's quite likely to be republican wave environment.. and contrary to some analysis, Johnson is a strong incumbent.. he outperformed trump in 16.

It's borderline Safe R.

[Calthrina950]

Likely R > Safe R.

I wouldn't go that far, but Johnson is favored. If I had to guess, he will defeat Barnes by around mid-single digits this fall.

It's quite likely to be republican wave environment.. and contrary to some analysis, Johnson is a strong incumbent.. he outperformed trump in 16.

It's borderline Safe R.

As I've said, Johnson is favored, but it wouldn't be advisable for Republicans to assume that this race is safe.

[Lambsbread]

Likely R > Safe R.

I wouldn't go that far, but Johnson is favored. If I had to guess, he will defeat Barnes by around mid-single digits this fall.

It's quite likely to be republican wave environment.. and contrary to some analysis, Johnson is a strong incumbent.. he outperformed trump in 16.

It's borderline Safe R.

What happened between then and now

[ElectionsGuy]

Likely R > Safe R.

I wouldn't go that far, but Johnson is favored. If I had to guess, he will defeat Barnes by around mid-single digits this fall.

It's quite likely to be republican wave environment.. and contrary to some analysis, Johnson is a strong incumbent.. he outperformed trump in 16.

It's borderline Safe R.

What happened between then and now

He has successfully appealed to his base while offending the elite establishment media, so they think he's a far more vulnerable incumbent than he actually is. Nobody gets underestimated more than candidates like Ron Johnson. He was supposed to be dead in 2016, and he won pretty easily anyway, this isn't that new. The increasing phenomenon of "The Republicans are talking about no-no topics" shaming by Dems and legacy media makes them very delusional about Democratic chances.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Likely R > Safe R.

I wouldn't go that far, but Johnson is favored. If I had to guess, he will defeat Barnes by around mid-single digits this fall.

It's quite likely to be republican wave environment.. and contrary to some analysis, Johnson is a strong incumbent.. he outperformed trump in 16.

It's borderline Safe R.

What happened between then and now

A Trump presidency where literally every senator was incredibly partisan.. and the first year of a significantly unpopular democratic incumbent.

You're not making the point you think you are.

[Roll Roons]

Well, I highly doubt he'll get 68% in Waukesha, 65% in Ozaukee or 26% in Dane like he did in 2016. But he probably will do much better in rural areas.

[Xing]

While it frustrates me that Republicans aren't held to any kind of standard when it comes to decency (or being "extreme"), and when Democrats say stupid things, it's evidence that they can't be trusted, whereas when Republicans do it, they're intelligently engaging in 12.5D chess to "own" the libs/media/whatever, Johnson wouldn't do significantly worse or better than a different Republican. He'd definitely be in trouble, probably an underdog if this were a Republican midterm, but the environment is going to be enough to put him over the top even if his campaign isn't great.