WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Pocan was my top choice, but now I'm all for Mandela Barnes!

[Grumpier Than Thou]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2021/02/16/bucks-executive-alex-lasry-enters-u-s-senate-race-wisconsin/6769241002/

Bucks executive Alex Lasry has joined the race. I know it worked for Herb Kohl, but I have a feeling that if this guy wins the nomination, he'll turn out to be the Democratic version of Kelly Loeffler. Maybe he can self-fund, but as we saw in 2020, boatloads of cash only takes you so far. It'll be too easy to paint him as a spoiled rich carpetbagger.

Pls no more billionaires or sons of billionaires even the ones with a (D) next to their name

Mandela Barnes senpai please jump in

[Grumpier Than Thou]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2021/02/16/bucks-executive-alex-lasry-enters-u-s-senate-race-wisconsin/6769241002/

Bucks executive Alex Lasry has joined the race. I know it worked for Herb Kohl, but I have a feeling that if this guy wins the nomination, he'll turn out to be the Democratic version of Kelly Loeffler. Maybe he can self-fund, but as we saw in 2020, boatloads of cash only takes you so far. It'll be too easy to paint him as a spoiled rich carpetbagger.

Pls no more billionaires or sons of billionaires even the ones with a (D) next to their name

Mandela Barnes senpai please jump in

Herb Kohl was good, and Pritzer has proven surprisingly progressive. Warner has also been a decent senator and Delaney/Steyer have given us a lot of memes.

This is the opposite of a good case as to why we need more millionaires and billionaires in politics.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Lasry appeals to the base, Black men who are NBA fans

We'll see.

I get it's your shtick to say quasi-racist things and stereotype leftists without going overboard to avoid the mods but you should probably  off anyway

He appeals to the base. Younger liberals, Black voters. There is nothing racist about what I said.

He does not appeal to black voters just because his dad owns a basketball team.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Any updates on Barnes getting in?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Dang it, I was hoping Mandela wouldn't get in because I really like Chris Larson. I also really like Mandela.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

https://apnews.com/article/government-and-politics-wisconsin-senate-elections-election-2020-874003bb009ecf23441d19955a496c84

Barnes is in

Welp, that just made it tougher for me to pick a candidate in this race.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Will the Bucks Victory make any difference to this race given that their vice president Alex Lasryis running ?

No

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Sen. Larson is out and has endorsed Barnes.

https://twitter.com/AJBayatpour/status/1422553810539528198?s=20

Thank you, Chris. This makes me feel way better about supporting Mandela.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

A lot of the "Barnes can't win" commentary seems to rooted in the same place where the "Lamb is the only one who can win PA" commentary is; complete guesses and gut feelings. There is absolutely no hard evidence that Barnes cannot win, especially against an insurrectionist and certified loon like Ron Johnson. I think a lot of folks around here are just giving into this "black progressives cannot win WWC-dominated electorates" mentality that has stymied genuinely good candidates. "Electability" arguments this far out, and especially in a primary, are lame. It's a cyclical argument of "they can't win because they can't win."

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Yeah, Johnson not running for re-election actually hurts Democrats unless the GOP runs an extremely boring candidate.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Yeah, Johnson not running for re-election actually hurts Democrats unless the GOP runs an extremely boring candidate.

Lean R -> Likely R.

How so? If Johnson ends up not running, this is straight tossup.

Johnson is more likely to lose a general election than someone like Mike Gallagher. Of course, this will be a very hard seat for Democrats to win in the likely 2022 environment.

I know this is the conventional wisdom on the site, because Johnson is "toxic" or "extreme" or "an insurrectionist" or whatever (these are all accurate labels; the scare quotes were to imply that they don't matter electorally). But do we have any real evidence that it's true? Given his over-performance in 2016, and the innate advantages of incumbency, and his presumable popularity among Trump voters...I'm just not sure he's any weaker than Gallagher or whomever the WI GOP would put up. MT Treasurer has made some good posts on this point and could probably argue it better than me.

You may very well be right. I think maybe I'm in a bubble wherein I believe that there's no possible way voters could pick someone like Johnson after voting for Biden and also voting for Baldwin. But voters are not logical, so I'm fully willing to admit that I'm maybe working under a misapprehension.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

https://twitter.com/robillard/status/1437763606993686532?s=21

YESSSSS

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Kiss of death

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Johnson has called on the legislature to unilaterally take control of running Federal elections in Wisconsin. Exposing the Republican’s nationwide plan early I see.

Barnes should run hard on this if Johnson runs for re-election.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1479526132865245186?s=20

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Likely R > Safe R.

I wouldn't go that far, but Johnson is favored. If I had to guess, he will defeat Barnes by around mid-single digits this fall.

It's quite likely to be republican wave environment.. and contrary to some analysis, Johnson is a strong incumbent.. he outperformed trump in 16.

It's borderline Safe R.

What happened between then and now

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I'm not polling in this race but had lunch yesterday with a former colleague who is - said Johnson has apparently blown a "high single digits" lead from February and is now running even with both Barnes and Lasry.

Eye emoji.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Call me crazy but I think people are vastly overrating Johnson this year.

In 2016 he was basically a generic R. That is not the case this time around

I'm on the same page here. I don't know if I'm ready to say that Johnson loses for sure, but he is absolutely not your typical incumbent, even in a red wave year, which this year is not guaranteed to be.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Woah, holy sh*t. He's endorsing Barnes too. That's huge.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Good on Lasry and Godlewski. Democrats need to be as unified as possible if we're going to beat QAnon Ron in November.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Suggestions for a new thread title?

Barnes and (un)Noble
Barnes and No-bull

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Ron Johnson has to be one of the biggest assholes in America after that bs he pulled in that 2nd clip. I mean, I hate the "say something nice about your opponent" questions as much as everyone, but it's a layup. It gives you an opportunity to seem human. Instead, Ron Johnson decided to be an asshole. Glad the audience gave him what he deserved.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Yeah what we're not gonna do is say Barnes was some bad candidate. The man was literally left for dead by many on this forum (and the press), and he's making this a 1pt race. It's gonna be really depressing if he gets so close but can't eke it out. He was a good candidate, and clearly energized a lot of voters in WI that I don't think someone like Ron Kind would be able to.

Thank you. It's so funny how the same people who were convinced that Lamb was a guaranteed win while Fetterman was a guaranteed loss also believe that Barnes is the only candidate who could've lost this race.