WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[wbrocks67]

As is almost always the case in WI, the national environment will tell the tale (although I maintain Barnes is a weak enough candidate that he’d underperform by a few points even in a good year).  That really tells you all you need to know about who will win.

Why do you think Mandela is a weak candidate?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's not a weak candidate, the Rs don't think Warnock is a weak candidate and both Barnes and Warnock are both socialist

The word socialist affects female candidates like Beasley, Nah Whaley and Demings whom except for Beasley are 10 pts more down because of Kamala Harris following AOC leaf in not enforcing the Border, AOC told Harris that she was being cruel to illegals by going to border and Harris stopped

These same R pollsters said Perdue was gonna beat Warnock like MT Treasurer and he a socialist too

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

As is almost always the case in WI, the national environment will tell the tale (although I maintain Barnes is a weak enough candidate that he’d underperform by a few points even in a good year).  That really tells you all you need to know about who will win.

Why do you think Mandela is a weak candidate?

As others have explained elsewhere, he’s a pretty divisive figure in Milwaukee AA political circles, he is a terrible fit for both the old WI-3 area and the suburban areas in which we need to keep making inroads (not b/c he’s AA, but b/c he’s said some stuff that will play really badly in those areas), and he’s (IIRC) had a bunch of personal scandals regarding stuff like unpaid taxes and the like.  

He’s arguably our weakest major candidate in a competitive Senate race of the cycle so far.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As is almost always the case in WI, the national environment will tell the tale (although I maintain Barnes is a weak enough candidate that he’d underperform by a few points even in a good year).  That really tells you all you need to know about who will win.

Why do you think Mandela is a weak candidate?

As others have explained elsewhere, he’s a pretty divisive figure in Milwaukee AA political circles, he is a terrible fit for both the old WI-3 area and the suburban areas in which we need to keep making inroads (not b/c he’s AA, but b/c he’s said some stuff that will play really badly in those areas), and he’s (IIRC) had a bunch of personal scandals regarding stuff like unpaid taxes and the like.  

He’s arguably our weakest major candidate in a competitive Senate race of the cycle so far.

No he isn't the last poll he was tied with Johnson, he will win you will see


Clarity Mandela Barnes 47 Johnson 47

Did you know Obama campaign for Mr Sen Mandela Barnes for Lt Gov yes he did, MT Treasurer said Perdue was gonna beat SOCIALISTIC Raphael Warnock and he won now they are saying the same thing with Mandela Barnes let's wait til after the primary Tom Nelson can win the primary too

Demings abd Beasley remind voters of Harris and SO19 still believe we're gonna win FL, not
HES NOT DOWN BY 19 pts like Demings whom is the weakest major party candidate because Kamala Harris deserted the Border.
Crist and Demings are down double digits

[redjohn]

As is almost always the case in WI, the national environment will tell the tale (although I maintain Barnes is a weak enough candidate that he’d underperform by a few points even in a good year).  That really tells you all you need to know about who will win.

Why do you think Mandela is a weak candidate?

As others have explained elsewhere, he’s a pretty divisive figure in Milwaukee AA political circles, he is a terrible fit for both the old WI-3 area and the suburban areas in which we need to keep making inroads (not b/c he’s AA, but b/c he’s said some stuff that will play really badly in those areas), and he’s (IIRC) had a bunch of personal scandals regarding stuff like unpaid taxes and the like.  

He’s arguably our weakest major candidate in a competitive Senate race of the cycle so far.

Completely disagree. Victory in Wisconsin for Democrats hinges on Milwaukee now that they've cratered in support in vast swaths of rural communities. Dane county turns out no matter what just by virtue of it being the most highly-educated and politically active county in the state; Milwaukee is more of a wild card that determines whether Dems win statewide in close-ish races. I find it very hard to believe that Sarah Godlewski would perform better enough in rural WI to offset the votes she would lose by not being an inspiring candidate to most people in Milwaukee, black/white/Hispanic. Barnes is a popular candidate in both Dane county and Milwaukee, and would do a better job running up margins than any other no-name candidate in the running would. He's doomed because of the cycle he's running in, not because of his own quality.

Lest we forget what has happened in cycles where Milwaukee county turnout has dropped. Barnes being at the top (ish) of the ticket helps both himself and Evers more than any other candidate because it boosts Milwaukee turnout. If this were Trump's second term, he'd have a good shot at ousting Johnson. He's probably going to be the nominee for a race in a state that voted ~4 points to the right of the nation though, under a President who isn't very popular. Herb Kohl would struggle in this environment as a Democrat.

[Roll Roons]

As is almost always the case in WI, the national environment will tell the tale (although I maintain Barnes is a weak enough candidate that he’d underperform by a few points even in a good year).  That really tells you all you need to know about who will win.

Why do you think Mandela is a weak candidate?

As others have explained elsewhere, he’s a pretty divisive figure in Milwaukee AA political circles, he is a terrible fit for both the old WI-3 area and the suburban areas in which we need to keep making inroads (not b/c he’s AA, but b/c he’s said some stuff that will play really badly in those areas), and he’s (IIRC) had a bunch of personal scandals regarding stuff like unpaid taxes and the like. 

He’s arguably our weakest major candidate in a competitive Senate race of the cycle so far.

Completely disagree. Victory in Wisconsin for Democrats hinges on Milwaukee now that they've cratered in support in vast swaths of rural communities.

Milwaukee turnout is certainly important, but margins matter everywhere in a state as close as Wisconsin. Democrats can't get completely killed in WOW, BOW or the rural areas.

[redjohn]

As is almost always the case in WI, the national environment will tell the tale (although I maintain Barnes is a weak enough candidate that he’d underperform by a few points even in a good year).  That really tells you all you need to know about who will win.

Why do you think Mandela is a weak candidate?

As others have explained elsewhere, he’s a pretty divisive figure in Milwaukee AA political circles, he is a terrible fit for both the old WI-3 area and the suburban areas in which we need to keep making inroads (not b/c he’s AA, but b/c he’s said some stuff that will play really badly in those areas), and he’s (IIRC) had a bunch of personal scandals regarding stuff like unpaid taxes and the like.  

He’s arguably our weakest major candidate in a competitive Senate race of the cycle so far.

Completely disagree. Victory in Wisconsin for Democrats hinges on Milwaukee now that they've cratered in support in vast swaths of rural communities.

Milwaukee turnout is certainly important, but margins do matter. Democrats can't get completely killed in WOW, BOW or the rural areas.

They matter, but any of the Democrats running are going to get killed in rural areas. Without any recent evidence, I suspect the Democratic floor in WOW is rising and expect less fluctuation there especially given turnout is usually strong in those counties. No matter what, Johnson is going to run up huge margins in most areas of the state outside of SE WI and Dane county, which is the race. Best bet for Dems is to try to shore up Milwaukee turnout and not alienate rural areas too much. But again, they're going to get killed in rural areas and probably can't make that up even if Dane+Milwaukee swung left with high turnout.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really don't get why users are Dooming on Barnes, MT Treasurer said Peduec was gonna beat Warnock because he is a socialist and Demings whom remind voters about Harris is down 19 and they are in such denial

Now Indy Rep said AZ is the most likely seat to flip, not true Kelly is Blue collar, unless Abrams runs, GA is going to a runoff and Walker can win

Harris hurts DEMINGS AND BEASLEY BECAUSE SHR SIDED WITH AOC that stopping immigrants is cruel

That's why Gideon lost she was viewed like Betty Sweet as a Socialist

[😥]

https://twitter.com/BillGlauber/status/1458469698870382604?t=Axs8suDKUSHfdgcED90...

[SnowLabrador]

Based on that wording, he's probably going to run for re-election.

[ElectionsGuy]

Based on that wording, he's probably going to run for re-election.

Imagine if Johnson runs again while Sununu has declined to run for Senate. The opposite of what I would've expected a few months ago.

[Xing]

I honestly don’t think Johnson running again is a “gift” to Democrats. It’s not like “controversial” Republicans never win, and often they don’t do any worse than “moderate” Republicans.

[GALeftist]

I honestly don’t think Johnson running again is a “gift” to Democrats. It’s not like “controversial” Republicans never win, and often they don’t do any worse than “moderate” Republicans.

Not to mention that the man has already won twice statewide.

[Lognog]

I honestly don’t think Johnson running again is a “gift” to Democrats. It’s not like “controversial” Republicans never win, and often they don’t do any worse than “moderate” Republicans.

If the alternative is Gallagher then yes it is

[2016]

Johnson is running again because Trump pushed him to do so.

Personally I hope he reconsiders and retires!

Steil or Gallagher would make Wisconsin SEMI-SAFE!

True, Republicans would have another Open Seat to defend but in a Biden Midterm that's easier to defend then running with the Unpopularity of Ron Johnson.

My gut feel is that Republicans are "Safe" in OH, NC, MO but are likely going to lose PA.

Roy Blunt & Richard Burr did the right right by retiring.

Democrats will have two Pick Up Opportunities in PA and WI (if Johnson runs again). Republicans will have 3 Pick Up Opportunities in GA, AZ and NV!

[MasterJedi]

Johnson has called on the legislature to unilaterally take control of running Federal elections in Wisconsin. Exposing the Republican’s nationwide plan early I see.

[Lambsbread]

Johnson has called on the legislature to unilaterally take control of running Federal elections in Wisconsin. Exposing the Republican’s nationwide plan early I see.

Barnes should run hard on this if Johnson runs for re-election.

[MT Treasurer]

I really don’t buy that Gallagher would outperform Johnson in this race solely because he’s (ostensibly) more 'moderate' — the guy is not tested statewide, seems way too polished in a state that loves its "authentic" elected officials, and has no real distinguishable brand. Johnson's ability to turn every issue (even inflation, deficits, etc.) into a culture-war clash has a record of selling well even in WOW and the Green Bay area (can we dispel with this notion that this kind of messaging only works in rural areas? many posters seem to be unaware of how Johnson actually ran in 2010 and in which parts of the state he really crushed Feingold), and there’s obviously no doubt that he can supercharge rural/small-town turnout for the GOP. Democrats are also somewhat likely to make several strategic mistakes running against him in particular, like recycling the anti-Trump/insurrectionist playbook (did not work for McAuliffe) or running a gazillion ads painting Johnson as an "extremist" or "radical Republican" (something every voter already knows) while doing nothing to dismantle his perceived "authenticity" (same mistake Republicans make when they run against "socialist" Baldwin).

Either way, Republicans aren’t losing this race in a Republican wave environment. Likely R with Johnson or Gallagher.

[Mr. Smith]

I really don’t buy that Gallagher would outperform Johnson in this race solely because he’s (ostensibly) more 'moderate' — the guy is not tested statewide, seems way too polished in a state that loves its "authentic" elected officials, and has no real distinguishable brand. Johnson's ability to turn every issue (even inflation, deficits, etc.) into a culture-war clash has a record of selling well even in WOW and the Green Bay area (can we dispel with this notion that this kind of messaging only works in rural areas? many posters seem to be unaware of how Johnson actually ran in 2010 and in which parts of the state he really crushed Feingold), and there’s obviously no doubt that he can supercharge rural/small-town turnout for the GOP. Democrats are also somewhat likely to make several strategic mistakes running against him in particular, like recycling the anti-Trump/insurrectionist playbook (did not work for McAuliffe) or running a gazillion ads painting Johnson as an "extremist" or "radical Republican" (something every voter already knows) while doing nothing to dismantle his perceived "authenticity" (same mistake Republicans make when they run against "socialist" Baldwin).

Either way, Republicans aren’t losing this race in a Republican wave environment. Likely R with Johnson or Gallagher.

That logic is just what was plausible for Bill Nelson in 2018 too. I mean it WAS a Dem environment supposedly

I highly doubt Barnes or Nelson will be quite so tactically haphazard like Feingold was [moreso in 2010].

[Beebeebutt]

Barnes is complete trash. The GOP just needs to use these two tweets in every ad and they win.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheOtherMandela/status/1247995868898344960?ref_src=tw...
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheOtherMandela/status/1461765877347540995

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes is complete trash. The GOP just needs to use these two tweets in every ad and they win.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheOtherMandela/status/1247995868898344960?ref_src=tw...
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheOtherMandela/status/1461765877347540995

Lol stop it with this Barnes is complete trash we have a D primary with Tom Nelson we don't know whom the nominee is and he is no more liberal than Warnock and Cory Booker and Barack  Obama was

It's a 3o4 map, Johnson praised the Insurrectionists that's why he is vulnerable

If Biden gets close to 50 which he will a yr after these disaster polls, it's a blue wave D's won 80 M votes not Rs and WI has gone D in ever Prez Election since 88 except 2016

[ElectionsGuy]

Both Evers and Barnes have had nicer things to say about domestic abusers and child rapists than about Kyle Rittenhouse.

[Calthrina950]

Both Evers and Barnes have had nicer things to say about domestic abusers and child rapists than about Kyle Rittenhouse.

I think both are underdogs at this point. Evers has never been particularly popular, and Barnes seems like the kind of candidate who would do very poorly outside of Milwaukee and Madison, in both the WOW counties and the rural areas.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Both Evers and Barnes have had nicer things to say about domestic abusers and child rapists than about Kyle Rittenhouse.

I think both are underdogs at this point. Evers has never been particularly popular, and Barnes seems like the kind of candidate who would do very poorly outside of Milwaukee and Madison, in both the WOW counties and the rural areas.

I expect the WOW area to rebound to at least Walker 2018 margins and rural areas keep shifting more and more Republican next year. Also medium sized cities like Appleton and Green Bay to swing Republican significantly too.

[lfromnj]

Lmao did he really call Rosenbaum Jojo.

Imagine trying to glorify Joseph Rosenbaum of all people!