2018 Senate Rankings

[GeorgiaModerate]

Safe D: CA CO DE HI MD MA MN NM NY RI VT VA WA
Likely D: FL ME MI NJ PA WI WV
Lean D: AZ MO MT ND OH
Lean R: IN NV
Likely R: ...
Safe R: MS NE TN TX UT WY

(Note: No tossup, Lean territory is de facto tossup, but favor is indicated by the lean it goes to)

I'd swap NV and MO.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Latest ratings:

Arizona - Tossup
California - Safe D
Connecticut - Safe D
Delaware - Safe D
Florida - Leans D
Hawaii - Safe D
Indiana - Tossup
Maine - Likely I
Maryland - Safe D
Massachusetts - Safe D
Michigan - Likely D
Minnesota - Safe D
Mississippi - Safe R
Missouri - Leans D
Montana - Leans D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Tossup
New Jersey - Likely D
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
North Dakota - Tossup
Ohio - Leans D
Pennsylvania - Leans D
Rhode Island - Safe D
Tennessee - Safe R
Texas - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe I
Virginia - Likely D
Washington - Safe D
West Virginia - Likely D
Wisconsin - Leans D
Wyoming - Safe R

Lol

Republicans have no chance whatsoever of unseating Tammy Baldwin.

Yep. Just look at Senator Feingold, who defeated Ron Johnson in a landslide. Or wait...

Very different environments.  I'd call it Likely D.

[GeorgiaModerate]

BTW, I need a better word for the ranking between Likely and Safe. Solid seems too close to Safe. Maybe Very Likely? Or Confident?

Confident is good.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

With the entrance of Phil Bredesen, Tennessee goes from Safe R to Lean R.

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (5): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (4): IN (D+1), OH (even), AL, TN
Likely R (2): MO (R+1), AR*
Safe R (5): MS, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Not yet officially scheduled

If Democrats can pull off an upset in Alabama or if the AR Special actually happens, the Democrats can lose McCaskill and still get a Senate majority.

You think the Democrats would actually have a chance in Arkansas?

[GeorgiaModerate]

My Current, No Tossup Rating Senate Predictions


Safe D (10): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, MN, MN(S) VA, ND
Lean D (5): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1)
Tilt D: WV, AZ, MO
Tilt R: NONE
Lean R (2): NONE
Likely R (3): TN, TX
Safe R (5): MS, NE, WY, UT

Indiana?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The arrows are a very nice visualization.

[GeorgiaModerate]

His ratings are more rightward than many of us (including me) would agree with, but they're not ridiculous. And I have a hard time seeing Lear rating NV as Lean D.  Give him a chance.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I haven't updated mine in a while, so here goes.

Definitions:

Safe: The outcome is all but certain, barring something crazy upending the race.
Likely: It would be a real surprise if the favorite lost, but it's not completely implausible.
Lean: Neither outcome would be a surprise, but one side has a definite advantage.
Tilt: It's really close, but if forced to choose there's one I'd pick.
Tossup: I don't have a clue (to be avoided if possible).

Ratings:

Safe D/I (15): CA, CT, DE, HI, ME, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NM, NY, RI, VT, VA, WA
Likely D (6): AZ, MI, MN-S, OH, PA, WI
Lean D (6): FL, MO, MT, NV, ND, WV
Tilt D (2): IN, TN
Likely R (2): MS-S, TX
Safe R (4): MS, NE, UT, WY

Some of these are less firm than others and may change following primary results or other developments, e.g. AZ will go to Safe D if Arpaio wins the primary, but might go to Lean D if McSally wins.

Changes:

AZ: Lean D to Likely D following the AZ-8 result.
FL: Likely D to Lean D after Scott's official entry and the closeness of polls so far.
MO: Tilt D to Lean D due to the MO GOP being what it is.  Claire McCaskill must be the luckiest politician in America.
TN: Lean R all the way to Tilt D.  The multiple polls with Bredesen in the lead are too much to ignore.

Overall: if all the races go the way they're forecast, the result would be D+3 (AZ, NV, TN), giving them 52 seats.  But because of the sheer number of seats the Democrats are defending, their chances of gaining control are perhaps 50% -- which is still far better than I would have guessed a year ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

MO and IN are both definitely Likely D at this point.

FL and OH and WI and PA are definitely Safe D too.

FL isn't Safe. It might end up going that way, but polling at this point says Lean D, and fundamentals are around Likely.

Fundamentals have FL at Safe D, easily.

You've become the anti-LimoLiberal!  (CadillacConservative maybe?)

[GeorgiaModerate]

MO and IN are both definitely Likely D at this point.

FL and OH and WI and PA are definitely Safe D too.

Delusional.

He's obviously trolling.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Iowa is minnesota special
Alabama is mississippi special

west virginia is safe r cuz blankenship wasn't nominated
california is likely d cuz of top-two lockout

Don't be too surprised if the end results are quite a bit different.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Changes:
Vermont: Titanium D->Safe D

did a republican declare?

http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/633/201801240200047633/201801240200047633.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

As it stands today:

MS-SPECIAL: Probable R; MN-SPECIAL: Likely D
Without tossups

Change: VA -> Safe D. MS Special -> Safe R. MN Special -> Safe D.
Among my no tosses map, Donnelly now moves to more likely to lose than McCaskill. Still think they're both effectively coin tosses, but Braun's win makes it a more likely R pickup than the struggling Missouri Republican Party.

If there were a rating between tilt and likely, that's where I'd place Texas. The polling average is right around the normal polling error in Senate races, but I still doubt that Texas has enough elasticity or persuadable voters for O'Rourke to win.

I want to see polling data from the Midwest Dem incumbent states before making a call, but likely still feels right for now. Pennsylvania would be the first to move to safe, then Michigan, then Ohio, then Wisconsin, ftr.

A McSally win would keep Arizona in the toss column, while an Arpaio or Ward win would move it to Tilt D. There's a higher combined probability of Arpaio/Ward win than McSally, so it goes to D in my no-toss map.

Among the MT/ND/WV trio, I'm most bullish on Manchin, followed by Tester, then of course Heitkamp.

The next most difficult calls after the aforementioned are Florida and Nevada. The former, I'm close to a toss-up rating on Gov Scott's strength as a candidate and the latter, I'm not yet sold on Rosen's strength. Still, between Nelson's incumbency and the famed Harry Reid GOTV machine in Nevada, both are ever so slight D tilts.

You have IN red and MO blue in the no-tossup map, which doesn't match the text.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very nicely done.  I always enjoy posts like this that cover a whole spectrum of outcomes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Updated:

Updated

Has anyone ever suggested you have a problem with commitment?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sorry for so many Tossups.... I wish 270 to Win had the Tilt rating because all of these could be put into those categories if need be.

How about just listing your Tilt ratings then?

[GeorgiaModerate]

A few tweaks since my last rankings in April:

Definitions:

Safe: The outcome is all but certain, barring something crazy upending the race.
Likely: It would be a real surprise if the favorite lost, but it's not completely implausible.
Lean: Neither outcome would be a surprise, but one side has a definite advantage.
Tilt: It's really close, but if forced to choose there's one I'd pick.
Tossup: I don't have a clue (to be avoided if possible).

Ratings:

Safe D/I (15): CA, CT, DE, HI, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NM, NY, RI, VT, VA, WA
Likely D (7): AZ, MN-S, MT, NJ, OH, PA, WI
Lean D (4): MO, NV, ND, WV
Tilt D (3): FL, IN, TN
Likely R (2): MS-S, TX
Safe R (4): MS, NE, UT, WY

Some of these are less firm than others and may change following primary results or other developments, e.g. AZ will go to Safe D if Arpaio wins the primary, but might go to Lean D if McSally wins.

Changes:

FL: Lean D to Tilt D.  I still think Nelson will pull it out, but the polls can't be ignored.
MI: Likely D to Safe D.  Stabenow isn't going to lose.
MT: Lean D to Likely D.  Tester looks like a clear favorite at this point.
NJ: Safe D to Likely D.  Menendez is damaged goods.  He's still the favorite, but an upset isn't inconceivable.

Overall: if all the races go the way they're forecast, the result would be D+3 (AZ, NV, TN), giving them 52 seats.  But because the Democrats are favored only weakly in several races, their chances of gaining control are only about 40%-45%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If MT is Likely D, then MN-S, NJ, PA and WI should be Safe D. And probably OH as well.

Not all Likelys are created equal.  MT is just on the Likely side of the Likely/Lean division.  The others are much closer to the Likely/Safe end (I came very close to moving PA to Safe, and it will probably get there before long.)  It's similar on the R side.  I have both TX and MS-S as Likely, but TX is a lot closer to Lean.

This actually illustrates a point I've been considering: whether it would be better to try and assign a probability to each race rather than lumping them into categories. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Okay guys, here are my ratings and #analysis. I worked really hard on these, so I hope you all like them.

....

Any thoughts?

Whatever you're on, I hope you brought enough for everyone.

[GeorgiaModerate]

TN has a SSM ban on the ballot that benefits Blackburn

Really? That is so stupid. Just accept that you lost on this issue, Republicans! You're winning on everything else, just throw in the towel on this one!

Um there is no SSM Ban propositions on the ballot in TN this year. Cory is completely mistaken.

 https://ballotpedia.org/November_6,_2018_ballot_measures_in_Tennessee

There was one in 2006, I believe.  He's only off by 12 years.

[GeorgiaModerate]

70 days before election day, Nelson has the slimmest of leads in Florida, which would result in a split Senate.

Nitpick: it's 60 days until election day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some updates due to recent polls and primary results:

Definitions:

Safe: The outcome is all but certain, barring something crazy upending the race.
Likely: It would be a real surprise if the favorite lost, but it's not completely implausible.
Lean: Neither outcome would be a surprise, but one side has a definite advantage.
Tilt: It's really close, but if forced to choose there's one I'd pick.
Tossup: I don't have a clue (to be avoided if possible).

Ratings:

Safe D/I (16): CA, CT, DE, HI, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NM, NY, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA
Likely D (4): MN-S, NJ, OH, WI
Lean D (7): AZ, FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, WV
Tilt D (1): TN
Tilt R (1): ND
Lean R (1): TX
Likely R (1): MS-S
Safe R (4): MS, NE, UT, WY

Changes in this update:

AZ: Likely D to Lean D.
FL: Tilt D to Lean D.
IN: Tilt D to Lean D.
MT: Likely D to Lean D.
ND: Lean D to Tilt R.
PA: Likely D to Safe D.
TX: Likely R to Lean R.

Overall: if all the races go the way they're forecast, the result would be D+2 (gain AZ/NV/TN, lose ND), giving them 51 seats.  But because the Democrats are favored only weakly in so many races, their chances of gaining control are only about 40%-45%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's what I think now

(map snipped)

as for the tossups not colored in, if I had to push them firearm to head, I will tilt all of them to dems except for TN. I feel the least confident pushing WV out of those 7 though.

Ps. sorry if you saw ND as safe R, that was a typo, I meant it to be at lean R like it shows now.

NM and VA only Likely D? Also don’t see how WV is a Tossup even if we’re being generous to Republicans. Morrisey is honestly one of the worst Republican candidates this year and would probably lose even if they’re having a good night.

NM and VA as anything other than Safe D is almost Limo-level, although in Bagel's case I think he's honestly just that pessimistic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

October 2nd, 2018 prediction:

Strong R: UT, WY
Lean R: NE, MS, MS (S)
Tossup: NV, AZ, ND, TX, MO, TN, FL
Lean D: MT, MN (S), WI, IN, OH, WV, VA, PA, NJ
Strong D/I: WA, CA, NM, MN, MI, MD, DE, NY, CT, RH, MA, VT, ME

Seven tossups?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’m moving North Dakota from Likely R to Safe R.
I’m moving Tennessee from Likely R to Safe R.

I’m moving Florida from Lean R to Tossup

Polls are close in TN and you move it to Safe R.  Polls are close in FL and you move it to Tossup.  There seems to be a certain lack of consistency here.