2018 Senate Rankings

[IceSpear]

I have already made official Bagel projections that the dems and the gop will keep control of these seats over a month out.

Wow, bold.

[Sadader]

(Prediction for November, not right now)

Only change from early June is flipping IN from Tossup-> lean D and MO from Lean D -> Tossup. Missouri will probably be the tipping point instead. But lol@ people seeing two good polls for Donnelly and thinking the race is over. Heitkamp has also weathered the attacks better than I thought she would (but having her as Likely D (oops) and safer than Tester relied on the misguided assumption that the GOP would actually target him properly).

I’ve been pretty bullish on O’Rourke’s chances for a while but by now I seem to be significantly more optimistic about Cruz’ odds than almost everyone. Weird.

Florida remains Lean D for obvious reasons. Apparently no user on this forum has ever lived through July and August in a midterm year.

Also, cold take; Dems chances at a majority proabably get somewhat worse (or don’t improve) as the GCB (~predictably) widens - the Senate actually being in play at D+10 or higher itself will clearly change the dynamics, since all of the Dems running in red states have a great time when it’s about the candidates themselves, but less so when voters realise control of the Senate is actually at stake.

Like everyone, I’m probably underrating Tennesse. It really is an absolute godsend for the Democratic party this year. But I have no idea where it’s going.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

(Prediction for November, not right now)

Only change from early June is flipping IN from Tossup-> lean D and MO from Lean D -> Tossup. Missouri will probably be the tipping point instead. But lol@ people seeing two good polls for Donnelly and thinking the race is over. Heitkamp has also weathered the attacks better than I thought she would (but having her as Likely D (oops) and safer than Tester relied on the misguided assumption that the GOP would actually target him properly).

I’ve been pretty bullish on O’Rourke’s chances for a while but by now I seem to be significantly more optimistic about Cruz’ odds than almost everyone. Weird.

Florida remains Lean D for obvious reasons. Apparently no user on this forum has ever lived through July and August in a midterm year.

Also, cold take; Dems chances at a majority proabably get somewhat worse (or don’t improve) as the GCB (~predictably) widens - the Senate actually being in play at D+10 or higher itself will clearly change the dynamics, since all of the Dems running in red states have a great time when it’s about the candidates themselves, but less so when voters realise control of the Senate is actually at stake.

Like everyone, I’m probably underrating Tennesse. It really is an absolute godsend for the Democratic party this year. But I have no idea where it’s going.

WV not at likely D lol.

[MT Treasurer]

WV not at likely D lol.

So you’re saying we shouldn’t trust polling at all?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

WV not at likely D lol.

So you’re saying we shouldn’t trust polling at all?

Trusts Pat's internal and the fundamentals.

[Xing]

WV not at likely D lol.

So you’re saying we shouldn’t trust polling at all?

Trusts Pat's internal and the fundamentals.

You mean his internal from four months ago?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

WV not at likely D lol.

So you’re saying we shouldn’t trust polling at all?

Trusts Pat's internal and the fundamentals.

You mean his internal from four months ago?

Yes, the fundamentals point towards that.

[Xing]

WV not at likely D lol.

So you’re saying we shouldn’t trust polling at all?

Trusts Pat's internal and the fundamentals.

You mean his internal from four months ago?

Yes, the fundamentals point towards that.

Maybe they did in May, but now... lol.

[Virginiá]

I just can't get over the fact that Trump single-handedly gave Democrats a shot at flipping the Senate. Think about it, even with him being an unpopular, deeply offensive president, Democrats still simply were too top-heavy in the Class I map. But what did Trump do for Democrats? He helped tank the popularity of two of his own incumbent Senators, although Flake probably did most of the damage to himself. Democrats never would have had a shot in Tennessee if it wasn't for Trump. Trump ruined the best opportunity for Republicans to lock in a long-term Senate majority in maybe decades.

The next time this class is up is 2024, and that will either be at the end of a 2nd Trump term, which would probably result in a wave election, or the reelection of a Democratic incumbent, which judging by how 2012 went, will probably not be too bad for Democrats. And this is all independent of whether you subscribe to TD's popular realignment theory, which would indicate a worse prognosis for Republicans.

[Orser67]

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, VT, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI, MN, NM
Very Likely Democratic:  ME, MI, MN-special, PA, VA
Likely Democratic: WI, NJ, OH, MT
Lean Democratic: WV, IN, NV, AZ, FL, MO
Tossup: ND
Lean Republican: TN, TX
Likely Republican: MS-special
Very Likely Republican: MS
Safe Republican: NE, WY, UT

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, VT, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI, MN, NM
Very Likely Democratic:  ME, MI, MN-special, PA, VA, OH, WI, NJ
Likely Democratic: MT, WV
Lean Democratic: AZ, NV, FL, IN
Tossup: MO, ND
Lean Republican: TN, TX
Likely Republican: MS-special
Very Likely Republican: MS
Safe Republican: NE, WY, UT

McCaskill to tossup, WV to Likely D, and Ohio, Wisconsin, and New Jersey fall off the board. I feel pretty good about everything else. Control of the Senate likely requires Dems to take everything rated Likely D or better and win six of AZ, NV, FL, IN, MO, ND, TN, and TX.

[Kodak]

Polls as of today.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No mercy on Dean Heller for voting yes on Kavanaugh, let's use this to finish him off once and for all.

[TheSaint250]

I just can't get over the fact that Trump single-handedly gave Democrats a shot at flipping the Senate.

Arizona is the perfect example of this. Democrats have not held a Senate seat since 1995, and, more specifically, the Class 3 seat hasn't been occupied by one since 1969.

In just one term of President Trump, we are on the verge of seeing Arizona have two Democratic senators for the first time since 1953.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Trump gave Democrats a Senate seat in Alabama by appointing the incumbent Senator to Attorney General. Democrats (except Joe Manchin) tried to turn the opportunity down initially.

[Blair]

Trump gave Democrats a Senate seat in Alabama by appointing the incumbent Senator to Attorney General. Democrats (except Joe Manchin) tried to turn the opportunity down initially.

Tbf the blame lies with McConnell for A.) Not stopping Strange, who was scandal ridden from running B.) Blasting Mo Brooks in the Primary.

Both Strange, and Moore had reasons for Republicans in Alabama not to vote for them.

[TarHeelDem]

Tilt R: TX
Toss-Up: ND
Tilt D: MO, TN
Lean D: NV, AZ, MT, IN, FL
Likely D: WV

[ElectionsGuy]

Likely R

None

Lean R

TN
TX

Toss-Up

AZ (Tilt D)
IN (Tilt D)
MO (Tilt R)
ND (Tilt R)

Lean D

FL
MT
NV
WV

Likely D

MN-S
NJ
OH
WI

Moving Florida and Nevada into Lean D status. Republicans looking at a very limited number of seats to increase their Senate numbers.

[DabbingSanta]

October 2nd, 2018 prediction:

Strong R: UT, WY
Lean R: NE, MS, MS (S)
Tossup: NV, AZ, ND, TX, MO, TN, FL
Lean D: MT, MN (S), WI, IN, OH, WV, VA, PA, NJ
Strong D/I: WA, CA, NM, MN, MI, MD, DE, NY, CT, RH, MA, VT, ME

[GeorgiaModerate]

October 2nd, 2018 prediction:

Strong R: UT, WY
Lean R: NE, MS, MS (S)
Tossup: NV, AZ, ND, TX, MO, TN, FL
Lean D: MT, MN (S), WI, IN, OH, WV, VA, PA, NJ
Strong D/I: WA, CA, NM, MN, MI, MD, DE, NY, CT, RH, MA, VT, ME

Seven tossups?

[DabbingSanta]

October 2nd, 2018 prediction:

Strong R: UT, WY
Lean R: NE, MS, MS (S)
Tossup: NV, AZ, ND, TX, MO, TN, FL
Lean D: MT, MN (S), WI, IN, OH, WV, VA, PA, NJ
Strong D/I: WA, CA, NM, MN, MI, MD, DE, NY, CT, RH, MA, VT, ME

Seven tossups?

I have 12 for my gubernational prediction. Just call me Mr Indecisive..

[ElectionsGuy]

Likely R

None

Lean R

ND
TN
TX

Toss-Up

AZ (Tilt D)
FL (Tilt D)
IN (Tilt D)
MO (Tilt R)

Lean D

MT
NV
WV

Likely D

MN-S
NJ
OH
WI

ND --> Lean R. Also realized I was being a bit premature about Florida and moving it back to Toss-Up with a D tilt.

[MillennialModerate]

I’m moving North Dakota from Likely R to Safe R.
I’m moving Tennessee from Likely R to Safe R.

I’m moving Florida from Lean R to Tossup

[Former President tack50]

With tossups



Without tossups



Changes from the 20th of September:

PA: Likely D->Safe D
OH: Likely D->Safe D
AZ: Tossup/Tilt D->Lean D

NJ: Likely D->Lean D
ND: Tossup/Tilt R->Lean R
MT: Lean D->Tossup/Tilt D

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’m moving North Dakota from Likely R to Safe R.
I’m moving Tennessee from Likely R to Safe R.

I’m moving Florida from Lean R to Tossup

Polls are close in TN and you move it to Safe R.  Polls are close in FL and you move it to Tossup.  There seems to be a certain lack of consistency here.

[Politician]

I’m moving North Dakota from Likely R to Safe R.
I’m moving Tennessee from Likely R to Safe R.

I’m moving Florida from Lean R to Tossup

Are you IceSpear's sock?