2018 Senate Rankings

[windjammer]

My most recent updated ratings.

Only differences are that WV has moved from Tossup to Lean D(I had it at Tossup because I didn't know how the primary would go), I remembered Nebraska this time, and I used 270towin instead of Atlas because (unpopular opinion alert)it looks much better, lol.

This is exactly my map!

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

MO and IN are both definitely Likely D at this point.

FL and OH and WI and PA are definitely Safe D too.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

MO and IN are both definitely Likely D at this point.

FL and OH and WI and PA are definitely Safe D too.

FL isn't Safe. It might end up going that way, but polling at this point says Lean D, and fundamentals are around Likely.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

MO and IN are both definitely Likely D at this point.

FL and OH and WI and PA are definitely Safe D too.

FL isn't Safe. It might end up going that way, but polling at this point says Lean D, and fundamentals are around Likely.

Fundamentals have FL at Safe D, easily.

[Politician]

FL certainly isn't Safe, and I wouldn't characterize MO as Likely D either.

[Yellowhammer]

MO and IN are both definitely Likely D at this point.

FL and OH and WI and PA are definitely Safe D too.

Delusional.

[GeorgiaModerate]

MO and IN are both definitely Likely D at this point.

FL and OH and WI and PA are definitely Safe D too.

FL isn't Safe. It might end up going that way, but polling at this point says Lean D, and fundamentals are around Likely.

Fundamentals have FL at Safe D, easily.

You've become the anti-LimoLiberal!  (CadillacConservative maybe?)

[GeorgiaModerate]

MO and IN are both definitely Likely D at this point.

FL and OH and WI and PA are definitely Safe D too.

Delusional.

He's obviously trolling.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

MS-Special - Lean R
NE - Lean R
IN - Tossup
TX - Tossup
WV - Lean D
ND - Lean D
MO - Lean D
TN - Lean D
NV - Lean D
FL - Lean D
MT - Likely D
AZ - Likely D

Everything else is Safe

Democrats likely get 1 seat in the Senate minimum, but are more likely to gain the Senate than not

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Florida as a state generally leans Republican by about 4 points.

2014 as a year leaned Republican by about 6 points.

2012 as a year leaned Democratic by about 2 points.

Combining these figures yields expected results of a 10 point Republican win in 2014 and a 2 point Republican win in 2012.

However, Rick Scott won by only 1 point in 2014, a 9 point under-performance.

While Bill Nelson won by 13 points in 2012, a 15 point over-performance.

If the 9 point under-performance of Rick Scott, the 15 point over-performance of Bill Nelson, and the 4 point Republican lean are added together, it results in a 20 point Bill Nelson win against Rick Scott, and that is before taking into account the fact that 2018 is likely to be a Democratic leaning year.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

First off, adding those numbers all together is almost certainly wrong. Second off, you can do the inverse.

Rick Scott has a +22 Approval rating.

Bill Nelson has a +17 Approval Rating.

Thus, Rick Scott will win by 5.

The fact is, their previous races indicate a Very Likely Democratic race, approval ratings indicate a Tossup race, and polls show a Lean D race. Rating it Likely is defensible. Rating it Safe is not.

[Politician]

First off, adding those numbers all together is almost certainly wrong. Second off, you can do the inverse.

Rick Scott has a +22 Approval rating.

Bill Nelson has a +17 Approval Rating.

Thus, Rick Scott will win by 5.

The fact is, their previous races indicate a Very Likely Democratic race, approval ratings indicate a Tossup race, and polls show a Lean D race. Rating it Likely is defensible. Rating it Safe is not.

Or, using Solid's logic, Conor Lamb won in PA-18, therefore Democrats will likely flip ALL districts less Republican than it. He ignores candidate quality, incumbent's popularity, voter demographics, and other important details.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Snipped for size

And here's a visual aid! For states with both Special elections and Regular ones, the standard election is marked with an R, and the Special is marked with an S.

Democrats: 51 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
Pure tossup: 1 seats
Uncorrelated Expected Result: ~D+0.5 (R+0.3)
Leans-only Expected Result: ~D+0.7 (R+0.5)
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+1.7 (+-0)
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+4
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+5

There are nine competitive races this cycle: MT, IN, WV, MO, TX, TN, FL, NV, and ND. Democrats must win seven of them to gain the majority; Republicans must win three of them to keep it.

This gif map is really great. Well done on that!

[Blackacre]

Snipped for size

And here's a visual aid! For states with both Special elections and Regular ones, the standard election is marked with an R, and the Special is marked with an S.

Democrats: 51 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
Pure tossup: 1 seats
Uncorrelated Expected Result: ~D+0.5 (R+0.3)
Leans-only Expected Result: ~D+0.7 (R+0.5)
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+1.7 (+-0)
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+4
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+5

There are nine competitive races this cycle: MT, IN, WV, MO, TX, TN, FL, NV, and ND. Democrats must win seven of them to gain the majority; Republicans must win three of them to keep it.

This gif map is really great. Well done on that!

Thank you so much!

[adrac]

1. Arizona

2. Nevada

3. Indiana
4. Tennessee

5. Missouri

6. Florida
7. North Dakota
8. Montana
9. West Virginia
10. Texas

Changes:

WV: Likely D -> Lean D
Partially because of the primary results, but mostly just a reconsideration on my part.

MN-Special: Likely D -> Safe D
No idea what the GOP wincon is here, probably should have had it safe from the start.

TX: Likely R -> Lean R
I thought I already had this but I guess I messed the colors up.

[Politician]

Changes:
Tennessee: Tossup->Lean D

[KingSweden]

Changes:
Tennessee: Tossup->Lean D

You forgot a VT rating, not that it matters

[Politician]

Changes:
Tennessee: Tossup->Lean D

You forgot a VT rating, not that it matters

It's Titanium D, Reps aren't even fielding a candidate

[Sestak]

So much for weekly ratings. Anyway, changes following this Tuesday's primaries).

Left and right arrows indicate a rating change to the left or to the right.

Five rating changes, three in favor of Republicans, mostly out of caution.

The most direct result of the primaries is moving IN to Lean R. Am I underestimating Donnelly? Quite possibly. But my previous rating was assuming a Rokita or Messer nom, and I think Braun is definitely stronger, and this is the seat I think the GOP has the best chance of picking up ATM.

No change in WV, as Morrisey splits it down the middle at Lean D. Would probably have rated it Tossup with Jenkins, and likely with Blankenship.

No change in OH because I was assuming Renacci would win.

Moving FL to Lean out of caution due to polling. It's still close to Likely.

And MT to Lean because it's not actually that much safer than ND or nearly as safe as WI/OH/MN-special.

VA to Safe because I dunno why I didn't make it safe in the first place.

NJ to safe because...yeah lol Menendez ain't losing.

[Blackacre]

Alright, it's time to talk about Missouri. Up until this point, it was a toss-up because everything about the state cancelled itself out. MO is a red state, but the national environment is strong for Democrats and the state is elastic and more Democratic downballot. McCaskill is a strong candidate, but so is Hawley, and polls showed a race in flux. However... Hawley isn't that strong anymore. Greitens really provided a tiebreaker in favor of Democrats, so much so that I have to move the race to Tilts Democratic, leaving no more tossups.

The national environment is waning for Democrats, but we're at a point where Senate polls supercede my understanding of the national environment. I'm looking at Indiana and West Virginia, but I need public polling for both before I do anything. As for tonight's primaries... nothing will affect how I see the map, except maybe for a wildcard event in Nebraska.

Titanium Democratic: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Democrat at the ballot box. (1)
VT

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (16)
CA, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, CT, WA, HI, DE, MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, PA, MI

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (4)
NJ, OH, WI, AZ,

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (5)
MT, NV, WV, ND, IN

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
FL, TN, MO

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (0)
Nothing here.

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (0)
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TX

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (2)
NE, MS-S

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (3)
MS, WY, UT

Titanium Republican: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Republican at the ballot box. (0)
Nothing here

And here's a visual aid! For states with both Special elections and Regular ones, the standard election is marked with an R, and the Special is marked with an S.

Democrats: 52 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
Pure tossup: 0 seats
Uncorrelated Expected Result: ~D+0.6 (D+0.1)
Leans-only Expected Result: ~D+0.8 (D+0.1)
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+1.8 (D+0.1)
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+4
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+5

There are nine competitive races this cycle: MT, IN, WV, MO, TX, TN, FL, NV, and ND. Democrats must win seven of them to gain the majority; Republicans must win three of them to keep it.

[BidenDuckworth2020]

[BlueDogs2020]

Wisconsin: Tossup
Montana: Likely D




jk

[nerd73]

Iowa is minnesota special
Alabama is mississippi special

west virginia is safe r cuz blankenship wasn't nominated
california is likely d cuz of top-two lockout

[GeorgiaModerate]

Iowa is minnesota special
Alabama is mississippi special

west virginia is safe r cuz blankenship wasn't nominated
california is likely d cuz of top-two lockout

Don't be too surprised if the end results are quite a bit different.

[Politician]

Iowa is minnesota special
Alabama is mississippi special

west virginia is safe r cuz blankenship wasn't nominated
california is likely d cuz of top-two lockout

Plausible, but Gary Trauner makes Wyoming a toss-up.