2018 Senate Rankings

[LAKISYLVANIA]

My prediction, some real toss-ups (Arizona, Indiana, Florida). North-Dakota and Tennessee are tilt R. Texas is lean R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Likely R

None

Lean R

TN
TX

Toss-Up

AZ (Tilt D)
FL (Tilt D)
IN (Tilt D, but closest to a pure toss-up)
MO (Tilt R)
NV (Tilt D)
ND (Tilt R)

Lean D

MT
WV

Likely D

MN-S
NJ
OH
WI

Anything not mentioned is safe.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Senate rides on Dems holding their own and winning AZ and NV. Bredesen gave Blackburn life on Kavanaugh response

[Former President tack50]

My current prediction

With tossups



Without tossups

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX, AZ, NV and MSb can go Dem and GOP win TN & FL due to Scott Spanish speaking to Latinos, but it's still early

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Senate map with no tossups, only change was to move TX from R to D (by less than 1 point)

[adrac]

1. Arizona
2. Nevada

3. Tennessee
4. Florida

5. North Dakota
6. Missouri

7. Indiana
8. Montana
9. Texas

Changes:

IN: Tossup -> Lean D: Donnelly has really surpassed my expectations.
OH: Likely D -> Safe D: Nothing to see here.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Here's what I think now



as for the tossups not colored in, if I had to push them firearm to head, I will tilt all of them to dems except for TN. I feel the least confident pushing WV out of those 7 though.

Ps. sorry if you saw ND as safe R, that was a typo, I meant it to be at lean R like it shows now.

[MT Treasurer]

Here's what I think now



as for the tossups not colored in, if I had to push them firearm to head, I will tilt all of them to dems except for TN. I feel the least confident pushing WV out of those 7 though.

Ps. sorry if you saw ND as safe R, that was a typo, I meant it to be at lean R like it shows now.

NM and VA only Likely D? Also don’t see how WV is a Tossup even if we’re being generous to Republicans. Morrisey is honestly one of the worst Republican candidates this year and would probably lose even if they’re having a good night.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's what I think now

(map snipped)

as for the tossups not colored in, if I had to push them firearm to head, I will tilt all of them to dems except for TN. I feel the least confident pushing WV out of those 7 though.

Ps. sorry if you saw ND as safe R, that was a typo, I meant it to be at lean R like it shows now.

NM and VA only Likely D? Also don’t see how WV is a Tossup even if we’re being generous to Republicans. Morrisey is honestly one of the worst Republican candidates this year and would probably lose even if they’re having a good night.

NM and VA as anything other than Safe D is almost Limo-level, although in Bagel's case I think he's honestly just that pessimistic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here's what I think now



as for the tossups not colored in, if I had to push them firearm to head, I will tilt all of them to dems except for TN. I feel the least confident pushing WV out of those 7 though.

Ps. sorry if you saw ND as safe R, that was a typo, I meant it to be at lean R like it shows now.

MO isn't LR

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Move TX to tossup, now, Cook has it tossup now😁

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My friend's map:



If forced to push, he gives the GOP FL, TN, and IN, and dems the rest.

[DaWN]

Safe D: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine (I), Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Minnesota-Special, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont (I), Virginia, Washington
Likely D: Ohio, Wisconsin
Lean D: Arizona (+1), Montana, Nevada (+2), West Virginia
Tossup: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota
Lean R: Tennessee, Texas
Likely R: Mississippi-Special
Safe R: Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming

CHANGES
Tennessee: Lean R -> Tossup
Seen too many polls with Bredesen ahead to keep this at Lean R. I still think Blackburn will win, but tossup seems like a fair indication of the race at the moment.
Texas: Lean R -> Tossup
The race has tightened over the last month, and I think the momentum may be in O'Rourke's favour now.

I'm going to look like a right monghead if both of these races end up going GOP by not-small margins lmao.

And with map:

MN Special: Safe D
MS Special: Likely R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Donnelly and McCaskill aren't endangered as much as pundits, expected, I think they will pulling away soon. FL, MT, and ND will go down to the wire.

[adrac]

1. Arizona
2. Nevada

3. Tennessee

4. Florida
5. North Dakota
6. Missouri

7. Indiana
8. Montana
9. Texas

Changes:

FL: Tossup -> Tilt D:

[Politician]

Changes:
Florida: Tilt D->Lean D
Montana: Lean D->Likely D
New Jersey: Likely D->Safe D
North Dakota: Tilt R->Tossup

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have already made official Bagel projections that the dems and the gop will keep control of these seats over a month out.

[TarHeelDem]

I have already made official Bagel projections that the dems and the gop will keep control of these seats over a month out.

*sigh*

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have already made official Bagel projections that the dems and the gop will keep control of these seats over a month out.

*sigh*

I'm sorry, do you think that the GOP has a chance in HI, CA, VT, and NY and that the dems have a chance in WY, and UT?

[TarHeelDem]

I have already made official Bagel projections that the dems and the gop will keep control of these seats over a month out.

*sigh*

I'm sorry, do you think that the GOP has a chance in HI, CA, VT, and NY and that the dems have a chance in WY, and UT?

No, but I don't understand why you're not also projecting the New England states, WA, PA, VA, MS (Wicker race), etc. Only ten states plus the MS special are even remotely competitive at this point.

[cvparty]

I have already made official Bagel projections that the dems and the gop will keep control of these seats over a month out.

*sigh*

I'm sorry, do you think that the GOP has a chance in HI, CA, VT, and NY and that the dems have a chance in WY, and UT?

i laughed at this response

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have already made official Bagel projections that the dems and the gop will keep control of these seats over a month out.

*sigh*

I'm sorry, do you think that the GOP has a chance in HI, CA, VT, and NY and that the dems have a chance in WY, and UT?

No, but I don't understand why you're not also projecting the New England states, WA, PA, VA, MS (Wicker race), etc. Only ten states plus the MS special are even remotely competitive at this point.

You see, all of those have at least like a 0.000000000000(keep going)1 chance of flipping, these states that I projected are basically less likely to flip than Jesus appearing in my living room.

[adrac]

I have already made official Bagel projections that the dems and the gop will keep control of these seats over a month out.

*sigh*

I'm sorry, do you think that the GOP has a chance in HI, CA, VT, and NY and that the dems have a chance in WY, and UT?

No, but I don't understand why you're not also projecting the New England states, WA, PA, VA, MS (Wicker race), etc. Only ten states plus the MS special are even remotely competitive at this point.

You see, all of those have at least like a 0.000000000000(keep going)1 chance of flipping, these states that I projected are basically less likely to flip than Jesus appearing in my living room.

That's nice, but the point of ratings is to commit to probabilities for races whose outcomes are non-trivial.

[cp]

Changes:
Florida: Tilt D->Lean D
Montana: Lean D->Likely D
New Jersey: Likely D->Safe D
North Dakota: Tilt R->Tossup

I would love this to be the case, but I think you're being too kind to the Dems here. ND is a tossup for sure (all the Lean R's of the past month are just pearl clutching/wishful thinking) and I can see why you might call MT Likely D (I'd wait another couple of weeks to be sure) ...

but no way FL is anything but tossup/tilt.