2018 Senate Rankings

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its an assumption. It's early,  but I don't think Democrats will win 52 votes.

[Rhenna]

Gun to my head: June edition. http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aMxjEl

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a neutral year,  the Democrats will gain 1 or 2 seats for a divided Senate, gaining NV and or AZ

[Politician]

Gun to my head: June edition. http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aMxjEl

New Jersey ain't "Likely" D, and Heidi's favored in ND.

[Rhenna]

Gun to my head: June edition. http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aMxjEl

New Jersey ain't "Likely" D, and Heidi's favored in ND.

Hugin can self fund and Menendez is a crook.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

So I will admit that I honestly jumped the gun with my latest ratings change. I will make a corrective rating change soon.

[Sadader]

Controversial, but Heitkamp is slightly safer than Tester IMO, and is much more likely to be a (near) lifer.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

49D-50R

IN is leading R, TN is leading D

We can wind up with a 50/50 Senate which I am projecting

[Politician]

Controversial, but Heitkamp is slightly safer than Tester IMO, and is much more likely to be a (near) lifer.

Don't let the "experts" see this.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I also feel like adding a Tilt Rating.

[Politician]

Democrats: 51
Republicans: 48
Toss-ups: 1

[Politician]

I also feel like adding a Tilt Rating.

Can you please move MO/IN out of Safe D?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I also feel like adding a Tilt Rating.

Can you please move MO/IN out of Safe D?

I will move them out. After thinking about it, I really think that I jumped the gun on moving them to Safe D.

[KingSweden]

Controversial, but Heitkamp is slightly safer than Tester IMO, and is much more likely to be a (near) lifer.

This is more or less my rating.

[Thunder98]

[ON Progressive]

[UWS]

Controversial, but Heitkamp is slightly safer than Tester IMO, and is much more likely to be a (near) lifer.

So according to you, Indiana would be the bellwether of 2018. That is possible.

[Politician]

Why is Brown more vulnerable than Manchin?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's time to make several changes. MN-Special moves from Likely D to Safe D as no strong challenger to Tina Smith has surfaced. Following the SD-17 Special, Missouri moves from Lean R to Toss-Up. This is a magnificent comeback for the Democratic Party in a race that should not have even been all that competitive for them, and is mostly a result of Hawley and Grietens working together to turn a Likely R senate contest into a Toss-Up senate contest. However, in some good news for Republicans, now that it is clear that Rosendale will be the R nominee, MT-SEN is now a Toss-Up.

Safe D (15): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA, MN-Special
Likely D (4): MI, NJ, PA, WI
Lean D (3):  NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH
Toss-Up (6): WV, ND, TN, FL, MO, MT
Lean R (1): IN (D+1)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[ElectionsGuy]

Everything not listed is safe/solid.

Likely D: MN (S), PA, WI
Lean D: OH, FL
Toss-Up: AZ, NV, IN, MO, MT, ND, WV
Lean R: TN
Likely R: TX

Among toss-ups

Tilting D: NV, MT, ND, WV
Tilting R: AZ, IN, MO

[Thunder98]

Why is Brown more vulnerable than Manchin?

It was a mistake, I meant to have WV as lean D

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

As it stands today:

MS-SPECIAL: Probable R; MN-SPECIAL: Likely D
Without tossups

Change: VA -> Safe D. MS Special -> Safe R. MN Special -> Safe D.
Among my no tosses map, Donnelly now moves to more likely to lose than McCaskill. Still think they're both effectively coin tosses, but Braun's win makes it a more likely R pickup than the struggling Missouri Republican Party.

If there were a rating between tilt and likely, that's where I'd place Texas. The polling average is right around the normal polling error in Senate races, but I still doubt that Texas has enough elasticity or persuadable voters for O'Rourke to win.

I want to see polling data from the Midwest Dem incumbent states before making a call, but likely still feels right for now. Pennsylvania would be the first to move to safe, then Michigan, then Ohio, then Wisconsin, ftr.

A McSally win would keep Arizona in the toss column, while an Arpaio or Ward win would move it to Tilt D. There's a higher combined probability of Arpaio/Ward win than McSally, so it goes to D in my no-toss map.

Among the MT/ND/WV trio, I'm most bullish on Manchin, followed by Tester, then of course Heitkamp.

The next most difficult calls after the aforementioned are Florida and Nevada. The former, I'm close to a toss-up rating on Gov Scott's strength as a candidate and the latter, I'm not yet sold on Rosen's strength. Still, between Nelson's incumbency and the famed Harry Reid GOTV machine in Nevada, both are ever so slight D tilts.

[GeorgiaModerate]

As it stands today:

MS-SPECIAL: Probable R; MN-SPECIAL: Likely D
Without tossups

Change: VA -> Safe D. MS Special -> Safe R. MN Special -> Safe D.
Among my no tosses map, Donnelly now moves to more likely to lose than McCaskill. Still think they're both effectively coin tosses, but Braun's win makes it a more likely R pickup than the struggling Missouri Republican Party.

If there were a rating between tilt and likely, that's where I'd place Texas. The polling average is right around the normal polling error in Senate races, but I still doubt that Texas has enough elasticity or persuadable voters for O'Rourke to win.

I want to see polling data from the Midwest Dem incumbent states before making a call, but likely still feels right for now. Pennsylvania would be the first to move to safe, then Michigan, then Ohio, then Wisconsin, ftr.

A McSally win would keep Arizona in the toss column, while an Arpaio or Ward win would move it to Tilt D. There's a higher combined probability of Arpaio/Ward win than McSally, so it goes to D in my no-toss map.

Among the MT/ND/WV trio, I'm most bullish on Manchin, followed by Tester, then of course Heitkamp.

The next most difficult calls after the aforementioned are Florida and Nevada. The former, I'm close to a toss-up rating on Gov Scott's strength as a candidate and the latter, I'm not yet sold on Rosen's strength. Still, between Nelson's incumbency and the famed Harry Reid GOTV machine in Nevada, both are ever so slight D tilts.

You have IN red and MO blue in the no-tossup map, which doesn't match the text.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

^ Text is supposed to depict the change from quoted post (which, now that I think about it was probably a stupid call on my part...)

Either way, fixed. And thanks!

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I fixed the previously absurd ratings of mine on my official atlas prediction, but I have not yet gotten around to fixing them in my google doc.