2018 Senate Rankings

[Thunder98]

My weekly Senate Election Predictions. (MS and MN specials should be at a likely color shade, but for some reason 270 has it in the light color shade instead)

Changes:

MO is now lean D
FL is now lean R
OH is safe D
WV is likely D

[Doimper]

"Polling looks great for Cruz," he says, the day after a Cruz +2 poll dropped

lol

[Greatblueheron]

Here’s my 2018 Senate Ratings.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LimoLiberal Official 2018 Senate Rankings
7/10/18 (I plan to do this monthly)
Including commentary. Rating change shown in parentheses using >>

Safe R:
NE
WY
MS
UT
MS-Special
TX (Likely R >> Safe R) Polling looks great for Cruz.

Likely R:
ND (Lean R >> Likely R) Heitkamp's standing looks disastrous in recent polling.
TN (Lean R >> Likely R) Trump's incredible appeal in this state will overcome Bredesen's.

Lean R:
MO
IN
FL (Tilt R >> Lean R) Nelson is getting hammered in ads while Scott continues his record fundraising and campaigning. Scott's strength with Latinos is further cementing this flip.

Tilt R:
MT
NV (Tossup >> Tilt R) Rosen keeps burning money on ads but can't seem to raise her recognition in the state as disastrous details about her business experience come to light.

Tossup:
AZ
WV

Tilt D:  
WI

Lean D:
OH
NJ

Likely D:
MI
VA
PA
MN-Special (Lean D >> Likely D) National Rs don't seem to be making a play here, and MN is not a Trump state.

Safe D:
MA
CT
RI
MN
WA
DE
MD
CA
NY

Likely I:
Nothing here.

Safe I:
VT
ME (Likely I >> Safe I) King's challengers are weak sauce.

Without allocating tossups, my current projections are 55 Republicans, 41 Democrats, 2 Independents,  and 2 Tossups.

Democrats pick up nothing, while Republicans pick up North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Montana and Florida.

I am a tad more omptimistic than this, but I agree with this more than almost all the other predictions on here, job well done.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LimoLiberal Official 2018 Senate Rankings
7/10/18 (I plan to do this monthly)
Including commentary. Rating change shown in parentheses using >>

Safe R:
NE
WY
MS
UT
MS-Special
TX (Likely R >> Safe R) Polling looks great for Cruz.

Likely R:
ND (Lean R >> Likely R) Heitkamp's standing looks disastrous in recent polling.
TN (Lean R >> Likely R) Trump's incredible appeal in this state will overcome Bredesen's.

Lean R:
MO
IN
FL (Tilt R >> Lean R) Nelson is getting hammered in ads while Scott continues his record fundraising and campaigning. Scott's strength with Latinos is further cementing this flip.

Tilt R:
MT
NV (Tossup >> Tilt R) Rosen keeps burning money on ads but can't seem to raise her recognition in the state as disastrous details about her business experience come to light.

Tossup:
AZ
WV

Tilt D:  
WI

Lean D:
OH
NJ

Likely D:
MI
VA
PA
MN-Special (Lean D >> Likely D) National Rs don't seem to be making a play here, and MN is not a Trump state.

Safe D:
MA
CT
RI
MN
WA
DE
MD
CA
NY

Likely I:
Nothing here.

Safe I:
VT
ME (Likely I >> Safe I) King's challengers are weak sauce.

Without allocating tossups, my current projections are 55 Republicans, 41 Democrats, 2 Independents,  and 2 Tossups.

Democrats pick up nothing, while Republicans pick up North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Montana and Florida.

I am a tad more omptimistic than this, but I agree with this more than almost all the other predictions on here, job well done.

L-O-L

[Zaybay]

LimoLiberal Official 2018 Senate Rankings
7/10/18 (I plan to do this monthly)
Including commentary. Rating change shown in parentheses using >>

Safe R:
NE
WY
MS
UT
MS-Special
TX (Likely R >> Safe R) Polling looks great for Cruz.

Likely R:
ND (Lean R >> Likely R) Heitkamp's standing looks disastrous in recent polling.
TN (Lean R >> Likely R) Trump's incredible appeal in this state will overcome Bredesen's.

Lean R:
MO
IN
FL (Tilt R >> Lean R) Nelson is getting hammered in ads while Scott continues his record fundraising and campaigning. Scott's strength with Latinos is further cementing this flip.

Tilt R:
MT
NV (Tossup >> Tilt R) Rosen keeps burning money on ads but can't seem to raise her recognition in the state as disastrous details about her business experience come to light.

Tossup:
AZ
WV

Tilt D:  
WI

Lean D:
OH
NJ

Likely D:
MI
VA
PA
MN-Special (Lean D >> Likely D) National Rs don't seem to be making a play here, and MN is not a Trump state.

Safe D:
MA
CT
RI
MN
WA
DE
MD
CA
NY

Likely I:
Nothing here.

Safe I:
VT
ME (Likely I >> Safe I) King's challengers are weak sauce.

Without allocating tossups, my current projections are 55 Republicans, 41 Democrats, 2 Independents,  and 2 Tossups.

Democrats pick up nothing, while Republicans pick up North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Montana and Florida.

I am a tad more omptimistic than this, but I agree with this more than almost all the other predictions on here, job well done.

Are you kidding me?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LimoLiberal Official 2018 Senate Rankings
7/10/18 (I plan to do this monthly)
Including commentary. Rating change shown in parentheses using >>

Safe R:
NE
WY
MS
UT
MS-Special
TX (Likely R >> Safe R) Polling looks great for Cruz.

Likely R:
ND (Lean R >> Likely R) Heitkamp's standing looks disastrous in recent polling.
TN (Lean R >> Likely R) Trump's incredible appeal in this state will overcome Bredesen's.

Lean R:
MO
IN
FL (Tilt R >> Lean R) Nelson is getting hammered in ads while Scott continues his record fundraising and campaigning. Scott's strength with Latinos is further cementing this flip.

Tilt R:
MT
NV (Tossup >> Tilt R) Rosen keeps burning money on ads but can't seem to raise her recognition in the state as disastrous details about her business experience come to light.

Tossup:
AZ
WV

Tilt D:  
WI

Lean D:
OH
NJ

Likely D:
MI
VA
PA
MN-Special (Lean D >> Likely D) National Rs don't seem to be making a play here, and MN is not a Trump state.

Safe D:
MA
CT
RI
MN
WA
DE
MD
CA
NY

Likely I:
Nothing here.

Safe I:
VT
ME (Likely I >> Safe I) King's challengers are weak sauce.

Without allocating tossups, my current projections are 55 Republicans, 41 Democrats, 2 Independents,  and 2 Tossups.

Democrats pick up nothing, while Republicans pick up North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Montana and Florida.

I am a tad more omptimistic than this, but I agree with this more than almost all the other predictions on here, job well done.

Are you kidding me?

Well I guess you could make an argument to keep MN special senate election at Lean D.

[Thunder98]

My weekly Senate Election Predictions (7/20) . (MS and MN specials should be at a likely color shade, but for some reason 270 has it in the light color shade instead)

Changes:

AZ is Likely D
WV is Safe D

[Nathan Towne]

I am not sure how to paste a 270toWin interactive map. I would do so if I knew how to.

[Zaybay]

I am not sure how to paste a 270toWin interactive map. I would do so if I knew how to.

Make a map, and then click "Share Map". From there, click the little image button, and copy the link with the "png". Then just plug that link into the "Image" button on this forum.

[BlueDogs2020]

Sorry for so many Tossups.... I wish 270 to Win had the Tilt rating because all of these could be put into those categories if need be.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sorry for so many Tossups.... I wish 270 to Win had the Tilt rating because all of these could be put into those categories if need be.

How about just listing your Tilt ratings then?

[BlueDogs2020]

Sorry for so many Tossups.... I wish 270 to Win had the Tilt rating because all of these could be put into those categories if need be.

How about just listing your Tilt ratings then?

Ok good idea;
Nevada; Tilt D
Missouri; Tilt D
Tennessee; Tilt D
Florida; Tilt R
North Dakota; Tilt R
Indiana; Tilt R

[NewYorkExpress]

I haven't posted a full list of what I think in months...

Minnesota-Special: Safe D (I think Republicans are probably wishing Tim Pawlenty or Erik Paulsen to run here)

Mississippi- Special: Safe R (There is no scenario I can see where a Democrat, such as Mike Espy winning. Hyde Smith should be able to beat both Espy and Chris McDaniel, should she go up against him)

Arizona: Lean D (If McSally wins the nomination, this race moves to tossup...but I think either Ward or Arpaio wins the primary, thus handing the seat to the Democrats)

California: Safe D, Likely Feinstein (Now that De Leon has the California Democratic Party endorsement, his victory wouldn't stun me, but Feinstein is the clear favorite)

Connecticut: Safe D (Murphy isn't vulnerable)

Delaware: Safe D (Carper isn't vulnerable)

Florida: Tilt R (Rick Scott, given his wealth and his willingness to spend it is the strongest opponent that Bill Nelson has ever faced. It's very possible that this is the only seat Democrats lose on Election Night...especially given how incompetent the Florida Democratic Party is)

Hawaii: Safe D (Hirono is going to glide to re-election...though I still think she should have retired, given her recent Kidney Cancer)

Indiana: Tossup (Braun wasn't the strongest candidate running in the primary, and I would say that was Messer from a primary/General Election standpoint...however, Indiana is a very Republican state, and Braun should not be underestimated by any stretch. This race could go either way)

Maine: Lean I (I actually think Ranked Choice voting might hurt Angus King's chances slightly, and help Eric Brakey and Zak Ringlestein slightly. That said, I'd be surprised if King lost, but it's certainly possible. Given the political climate, he'd more likely lose to Ringlestein)

Maryland: Safe D (Cardin isn't in danger)

Massachusetts: Safe D (Warren isn't in danger, but she'll have to answer questions about whether or not she is running for President)

Michigan: Safe D (I know Trump carried Michigan, but Republicans had a major recruiting fail here. Calley or Schuette might have actually made this race competitive)

Minnesota: Safe D (Again, Republicans might have happier if Pawlenty or Paulsen were running here)

Mississippi: Safe R (David Baria isn't a bad candidate, but Democrats are very unlikely to win in Mississippi, especially against an incumbent)

Missouri: Tilt D (I think Hawley isn't the strongest candidate, but I'm not quite sure who, other than maybe Jay Ashcroft would work for Republicans)

Montana: Tilt D (Matthew Rosendale is a stronger candidate than people give him credit for, but Tester is still a narrow favorite)

Nebraska: Safe R (Deb Fischer isn't losing)

Nevada: Likely D (Dean Heller almost certainly is losing, barring a disaster. I expect to be able to have this race back at safe/titanium D by mid September)

New Jersey: Lean D (I think if Hillary had won, Mendendez would lose)

New Mexico: Safe D (Heinrich isn't losing)

New York: Safe D (Gillibrand isn't going anywhere)

North Dakota: Tossup (Heitkamp certainly could lose, and probably will if she doesn't vote for Kavanaugh, but it's not like Cramer is the perfect candidate-he's already in the Senate in the person of John Hoeven)

Ohio: Likely D (It's quickly becoming, whether Brown will bring Cordray over the line in the Governor's race)

Pennsylvania: Likely D (Casey is probably safe, but he needs huge margins in both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh that Hillary might not get)

Rhode Island: Safe D (I don't see how Whitehouse gets in any serious danger)

Tennessee: Tilt D (Bredesen is a narrow favorite right now, but don't rule out Blackburn yet)

Texas: Tilt D (I'm probably very high on Beto O'Rourke's chances, but Ted Cruz is really only liked by his core base. It's quite possible we see a lot of Abbott/O'Rourke crossover voters, allowing O'Rourke to win. No matter what, I would think O'Rourke likely loses in 2024)

Utah: Safe R (Mitt Romney is a legend in Utah. He'll break at least 80%)

Vermont: Safe I/D (Sanders is safe,  though he does face two primary challengers, at least one whom wanted to punish him for running against Clinton...)

Virginia: Safe D (With Corey Stewart as the nominee, Tim Kaine is going to win by at least twenty)

Washington: Safe D (I don't believe Cantwell will be in danger)

West Virginia: Tossup (If Manchin votes against Kavanaugh, which I don't believe he will, he loses. If he votes for Kavanaugh, the race is a tossup, but Manchin has a narrow edge)

Wisconsin: Safe D (Neither of Tammy Baldwin's opponents have the strength to take him down)

Wyoming: Safe R (There is no way Democrats have a chance in one of the most Republican states in the nation)

[Alabama_Indy10]

I haven't posted a full list of what I think in months...

Minnesota-Special: Safe D (I think Republicans are probably wishing Tim Pawlenty or Erik Paulsen to run here)

Mississippi- Special: Safe R (There is no scenario I can see where a Democrat, such as Mike Espy winning. Hyde Smith should be able to beat both Espy and Chris McDaniel, should she go up against him)

Arizona: Lean D (If McSally wins the nomination, this race moves to tossup...but I think either Ward or Arpaio wins the primary, thus handing the seat to the Democrats)

California: Safe D, Likely Feinstein (Now that De Leon has the California Democratic Party endorsement, his victory wouldn't stun me, but Feinstein is the clear favorite)

Connecticut: Safe D (Murphy isn't vulnerable)

Delaware: Safe D (Carper isn't vulnerable)

Florida: Tilt R (Rick Scott, given his wealth and his willingness to spend it is the strongest opponent that Bill Nelson has ever faced. It's very possible that this is the only seat Democrats lose on Election Night...especially given how incompetent the Florida Democratic Party is)

Hawaii: Safe D (Hirono is going to glide to re-election...though I still think she should have retired, given her recent Kidney Cancer)

Indiana: Tossup (Braun wasn't the strongest candidate running in the primary, and I would say that was Messer from a primary/General Election standpoint...however, Indiana is a very Republican state, and Braun should not be underestimated by any stretch. This race could go either way)

Maine: Lean I (I actually think Ranked Choice voting might hurt Angus King's chances slightly, and help Eric Brakey and Zak Ringlestein slightly. That said, I'd be surprised if King lost, but it's certainly possible. Given the political climate, he'd more likely lose to Ringlestein)

Maryland: Safe D (Cardin isn't in danger)

Massachusetts: Safe D (Warren isn't in danger, but she'll have to answer questions about whether or not she is running for President)

Michigan: Safe D (I know Trump carried Michigan, but Republicans had a major recruiting fail here. Calley or Schuette might have actually made this race competitive)

Minnesota: Safe D (Again, Republicans might have happier if Pawlenty or Paulsen were running here)

Mississippi: Safe R (David Baria isn't a bad candidate, but Democrats are very unlikely to win in Mississippi, especially against an incumbent)

Missouri: Tilt D (I think Hawley isn't the strongest candidate, but I'm not quite sure who, other than maybe Jay Ashcroft would work for Republicans)

Montana: Tilt D (Matthew Rosendale is a stronger candidate than people give him credit for, but Tester is still a narrow favorite)

Nebraska: Safe R (Deb Fischer isn't losing)

Nevada: Likely D (Dean Heller almost certainly is losing, barring a disaster. I expect to be able to have this race back at safe/titanium D by mid September)

New Jersey: Lean D (I think if Hillary had won, Mendendez would lose)

New Mexico: Safe D (Heinrich isn't losing)

New York: Safe D (Gillibrand isn't going anywhere)

North Dakota: Tossup (Heitkamp certainly could lose, and probably will if she doesn't vote for Kavanaugh, but it's not like Cramer is the perfect candidate-he's already in the Senate in the person of John Hoeven)

Ohio: Likely D (It's quickly becoming, whether Brown will bring Cordray over the line in the Governor's race)

Pennsylvania: Likely D (Casey is probably safe, but he needs huge margins in both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh that Hillary might not get)

Rhode Island: Safe D (I don't see how Whitehouse gets in any serious danger)

Tennessee: Tilt D (Bredesen is a narrow favorite right now, but don't rule out Blackburn yet)

Texas: Tilt D (I'm probably very high on Beto O'Rourke's chances, but Ted Cruz is really only liked by his core base. It's quite possible we see a lot of Abbott/O'Rourke crossover voters, allowing O'Rourke to win. No matter what, I would think O'Rourke likely loses in 2024)

Utah: Safe R (Mitt Romney is a legend in Utah. He'll break at least 80%)

Vermont: Safe I/D (Sanders is safe,  though he does face two primary challengers, at least one whom wanted to punish him for running against Clinton...)

Virginia: Safe D (With Corey Stewart as the nominee, Tim Kaine is going to win by at least twenty)

Washington: Safe D (I don't believe Cantwell will be in danger)

West Virginia: Tossup (If Manchin votes against Kavanaugh, which I don't believe he will, he loses. If he votes for Kavanaugh, the race is a tossup, but Manchin has a narrow edge)

Wisconsin: Safe D (Neither of Tammy Baldwin's opponents have the strength to take him down)

Wyoming: Safe R (There is no way Democrats have a chance in one of the most Republican states in the nation)

Texas as Tilt D? LOL

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I haven't posted a full list of what I think in months...

Minnesota-Special: Safe D (I think Republicans are probably wishing Tim Pawlenty or Erik Paulsen to run here)

Mississippi- Special: Safe R (There is no scenario I can see where a Democrat, such as Mike Espy winning. Hyde Smith should be able to beat both Espy and Chris McDaniel, should she go up against him)

Arizona: Lean D (If McSally wins the nomination, this race moves to tossup...but I think either Ward or Arpaio wins the primary, thus handing the seat to the Democrats)

California: Safe D, Likely Feinstein (Now that De Leon has the California Democratic Party endorsement, his victory wouldn't stun me, but Feinstein is the clear favorite)

Connecticut: Safe D (Murphy isn't vulnerable)

Delaware: Safe D (Carper isn't vulnerable)

Florida: Tilt R (Rick Scott, given his wealth and his willingness to spend it is the strongest opponent that Bill Nelson has ever faced. It's very possible that this is the only seat Democrats lose on Election Night...especially given how incompetent the Florida Democratic Party is)

Hawaii: Safe D (Hirono is going to glide to re-election...though I still think she should have retired, given her recent Kidney Cancer)

Indiana: Tossup (Braun wasn't the strongest candidate running in the primary, and I would say that was Messer from a primary/General Election standpoint...however, Indiana is a very Republican state, and Braun should not be underestimated by any stretch. This race could go either way)

Maine: Lean I (I actually think Ranked Choice voting might hurt Angus King's chances slightly, and help Eric Brakey and Zak Ringlestein slightly. That said, I'd be surprised if King lost, but it's certainly possible. Given the political climate, he'd more likely lose to Ringlestein)

Maryland: Safe D (Cardin isn't in danger)

Massachusetts: Safe D (Warren isn't in danger, but she'll have to answer questions about whether or not she is running for President)

Michigan: Safe D (I know Trump carried Michigan, but Republicans had a major recruiting fail here. Calley or Schuette might have actually made this race competitive)

Minnesota: Safe D (Again, Republicans might have happier if Pawlenty or Paulsen were running here)

Mississippi: Safe R (David Baria isn't a bad candidate, but Democrats are very unlikely to win in Mississippi, especially against an incumbent)

Missouri: Tilt D (I think Hawley isn't the strongest candidate, but I'm not quite sure who, other than maybe Jay Ashcroft would work for Republicans)

Montana: Tilt D (Matthew Rosendale is a stronger candidate than people give him credit for, but Tester is still a narrow favorite)

Nebraska: Safe R (Deb Fischer isn't losing)

Nevada: Likely D (Dean Heller almost certainly is losing, barring a disaster. I expect to be able to have this race back at safe/titanium D by mid September)

New Jersey: Lean D (I think if Hillary had won, Mendendez would lose)

New Mexico: Safe D (Heinrich isn't losing)

New York: Safe D (Gillibrand isn't going anywhere)

North Dakota: Tossup (Heitkamp certainly could lose, and probably will if she doesn't vote for Kavanaugh, but it's not like Cramer is the perfect candidate-he's already in the Senate in the person of John Hoeven)

Ohio: Likely D (It's quickly becoming, whether Brown will bring Cordray over the line in the Governor's race)

Pennsylvania: Likely D (Casey is probably safe, but he needs huge margins in both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh that Hillary might not get)

Rhode Island: Safe D (I don't see how Whitehouse gets in any serious danger)

Tennessee: Tilt D (Bredesen is a narrow favorite right now, but don't rule out Blackburn yet)

Texas: Tilt D (I'm probably very high on Beto O'Rourke's chances, but Ted Cruz is really only liked by his core base. It's quite possible we see a lot of Abbott/O'Rourke crossover voters, allowing O'Rourke to win. No matter what, I would think O'Rourke likely loses in 2024)

Utah: Safe R (Mitt Romney is a legend in Utah. He'll break at least 80%)

Vermont: Safe I/D (Sanders is safe,  though he does face two primary challengers, at least one whom wanted to punish him for running against Clinton...)

Virginia: Safe D (With Corey Stewart as the nominee, Tim Kaine is going to win by at least twenty)

Washington: Safe D (I don't believe Cantwell will be in danger)

West Virginia: Tossup (If Manchin votes against Kavanaugh, which I don't believe he will, he loses. If he votes for Kavanaugh, the race is a tossup, but Manchin has a narrow edge)

Wisconsin: Safe D (Neither of Tammy Baldwin's opponents have the strength to take him down)

Wyoming: Safe R (There is no way Democrats have a chance in one of the most Republican states in the nation)

This is very weird.

[Coffein00]

imgur.com/a/IewePIr

Not enough posts to include a picture :-(

I managed to include "tilts" in the 270towin map, so don't wonder about the colors.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

imgur.com/a/IewePIr

Not enough posts to include a picture :-(

I managed to include "tilts" in the 270towin map, so don't wonder about the colors.

cool man, how'd you make the tilt colors?

[TarHeelDem]

WV - Likely D
AZ - Lean D
NV - Lean D
MO - Lean D
TN - Tilt D
FL - Toss-Up
ND - Toss-Up
IN - Toss-Up
TX - Lean R

Whoever wins two of the three toss-ups controls the Senate (barring a miracle Beto upset in Texas). Dems have incumbency advantage and the #BlueWave2018 (tm). If I had to bet I say they hold onto all three. Senate is 52-48.

(Side note: I actually don't think the SCOTUS vote will matter at all in the end. Some fresh new hell will be unleashed on us by October that will provide plenty distraction.)

[Calthrina950]

WV - Likely D
AZ - Lean D
NV - Lean D
MO - Lean D
TN - Tilt D
FL - Toss-Up
ND - Toss-Up
IN - Toss-Up
TX - Lean R

Whoever wins two of the three toss-ups controls the Senate (barring a miracle Beto upset in Texas). Dems have incumbency advantage and the #BlueWave2018 (tm). If I had to bet I say they hold onto all three. Senate is 52-48.

(Side note: I actually don't think the SCOTUS vote will matter at all in the end. Some fresh new hell will be unleashed on us by October that will provide plenty distraction.)

These are more or less my ratings for these states at this point as well, though I think TX is Likely R, given that Cruz is leading by ~9-10 pts. in the most recent polls, and given Texas's partisan composition.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX can very well go Dem, it will be a photo finish and if Cruz is leading by 2 on election day, he can be Mark Warnered

[Calthrina950]

TX can very well go Dem, it will be a photo finish and if Cruz is leading by 2 on election day, he can be Mark Warnered

Things would have to go very well for Democrats for that to happen. O'Rourke could possibly do better than Hillary Clinton, and he might bring the race to within five points. But I'm not sure his recent comments in favor of abolishing ICE and for Trump's impeachment will do him any favors in the suburbs, where he must do "well" (relatively speaking) to have any chance at victory.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Jones and Bredesen can win, Beto can win too, but time will tell

[Burke Bro]

Here are my senate ratings. Sorry, Bredesen won't win in TN.

[Coffein00]

imgur.com/a/IewePIr

Not enough posts to include a picture :-(

I managed to include "tilts" in the 270towin map, so don't wonder about the colors.

cool man, how'd you make the tilt colors?

To be honest, I just changed the hex-colors of the states in the source-code. I was trying to find a more elegant solution, but didn't find one so far...