2018 Senate Rankings

[Zaybay]

TX can very well go Dem, it will be a photo finish and if Cruz is leading by 2 on election day, he can be Mark Warnered

Things would have to go very well for Democrats for that to happen. O'Rourke could possibly do better than Hillary Clinton, and he might bring the race to within five points. But I'm not sure his recent comments in favor of abolishing ICE and for Trump's impeachment will do him any favors in the suburbs, where he must do "well" (relatively speaking) to have any chance at victory.

That was a rather odd move. Maybe he is trying to energize Democrats in a state that only around 30% of registered voters actually vote in the midterms? Thats my theory at least.

[Zaybay]

My Senate Rankings (as of 7/23/18)

With tossups:

Due to the nature of waves, and senate reelectability, I would say that Dems win a majority win 52-48.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here are my senate ratings. Sorry, Bredesen won't win in TN.

Bredesen can win, 3/4 polls have showed him ahead of unpopular Marsha Blackburn

[mcmikk]

My ratings as of 7/23/18:



For some reason the image is sort of low-quality and grainy, sorry about that.

Changes:

Ohio: Lean D --> Likely D
Pennsylvania: Likely D --> Safe D
Tennessee: Lean R --> Tossup

Also, Mississippi-Special appears to be Lean R in the map, but again 270towin cannot generate quality images. It is meant to be Likely R.

[Calthrina950]

TX can very well go Dem, it will be a photo finish and if Cruz is leading by 2 on election day, he can be Mark Warnered

Things would have to go very well for Democrats for that to happen. O'Rourke could possibly do better than Hillary Clinton, and he might bring the race to within five points. But I'm not sure his recent comments in favor of abolishing ICE and for Trump's impeachment will do him any favors in the suburbs, where he must do "well" (relatively speaking) to have any chance at victory.

That was a rather odd move. Maybe he is trying to energize Democrats in a state that only around 30% of registered voters actually vote in the midterms? Thats my theory at least.

It's possible, but I still don't think these comments were helpful for him, in the long run. They gave Cruz extra fodder to use to mobilize the Republican base.

[Ferguson97]

(https://imgur.com/a/WHQSMnJ)

Can't figure out how to add an image, the [img] thing doesn't work for some reason

[Xing]

Two changes:

FL: Lean D -> Toss-Up, since Nelson still seems to be struggling here. My gut says that he hangs on and it won´t be especially close, but we´re close enough to election day that it is fair to call this race legitimately competitive.

WV: Lean D -> Likely D. Manchin´s been polling quite strongly here, and Morrisey is really proving to be a mediocre candidate. Unlike Florida, this race is looking less and less competitive.

[Galaxie]

AL = MS Special
IA = MN Special

Changes:
TX: Likely R -> Lean R
MS: Likely R -> Safe R
WV: Tilt D -> Lean D
OH: Lean D -> Likely D
TN: Tilt R -> Tossup
WI: Lean D -> Likely D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Greedo punched first]

90%: Safe R
60%: Likely R
40%: Lean R
30%: Tilt R
Tossup
90%: Safe D
60%: Likely R
40%: Lean R
30%: Tilt R

Note: Likely D in CA means likely Feinstein (D) over Kevin de Leon (D).

[Kodak]

For fun, I'm going to take the Atlas 3-poll average method with every available poll and see if it comes closer to predicting the outcomes than any of the other election models. Here is my prediction 100 days from election day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still think Beto can pull it out

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

Still think Beto can pull it out

Unlikely, but not impossible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a sleeper race.

[nerd73]

I've decided to do..something and base my Senate ratings entirely on the Atlas polls average.

The map for July 31st, 2018 is therefore this:

My key is this: 5% lead or less = Tossup, 5-10% lead = Lean, 10-15% lead = Likely, 16% lead or more = Safe.

[Blackacre]

Still think Beto can pull it out

Unlikely, but not impossible.

Yeah, it's Lean R, so Beto has a shot but he's absolutely the underdog.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A few tweaks since my last rankings in April:

Definitions:

Safe: The outcome is all but certain, barring something crazy upending the race.
Likely: It would be a real surprise if the favorite lost, but it's not completely implausible.
Lean: Neither outcome would be a surprise, but one side has a definite advantage.
Tilt: It's really close, but if forced to choose there's one I'd pick.
Tossup: I don't have a clue (to be avoided if possible).

Ratings:

Safe D/I (15): CA, CT, DE, HI, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NM, NY, RI, VT, VA, WA
Likely D (7): AZ, MN-S, MT, NJ, OH, PA, WI
Lean D (4): MO, NV, ND, WV
Tilt D (3): FL, IN, TN
Likely R (2): MS-S, TX
Safe R (4): MS, NE, UT, WY

Some of these are less firm than others and may change following primary results or other developments, e.g. AZ will go to Safe D if Arpaio wins the primary, but might go to Lean D if McSally wins.

Changes:

FL: Lean D to Tilt D.  I still think Nelson will pull it out, but the polls can't be ignored.
MI: Likely D to Safe D.  Stabenow isn't going to lose.
MT: Lean D to Likely D.  Tester looks like a clear favorite at this point.
NJ: Safe D to Likely D.  Menendez is damaged goods.  He's still the favorite, but an upset isn't inconceivable.

Overall: if all the races go the way they're forecast, the result would be D+3 (AZ, NV, TN), giving them 52 seats.  But because the Democrats are favored only weakly in several races, their chances of gaining control are only about 40%-45%.

[KingSweden]

Pretty fair ratings, GM

[Zaybay]

Pretty fair ratings, GM

[MT Treasurer]

If MT is Likely D, then MN-S, NJ, PA and WI should be Safe D. And probably OH as well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If MT is Likely D, then MN-S, NJ, PA and WI should be Safe D. And probably OH as well.

Not all Likelys are created equal.  MT is just on the Likely side of the Likely/Lean division.  The others are much closer to the Likely/Safe end (I came very close to moving PA to Safe, and it will probably get there before long.)  It's similar on the R side.  I have both TX and MS-S as Likely, but TX is a lot closer to Lean.

This actually illustrates a point I've been considering: whether it would be better to try and assign a probability to each race rather than lumping them into categories. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV is lean R
AZ,TN Lean D
MS and FL are tossup but give it D rankings.

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

NV is lean R
AZ,TN Lean D
MS and FL are tossup but give it D rankings.

MS a tossup? That's a little bullish, even with a special election.

[adrac]

1. Arizona

2. Nevada

3. Indiana
4. Tennessee

5. Florida
6. Missouri

7. North Dakota
8. Montana
9. Texas

Changes:

WV: Lean D -> Likely D
ME: Likely D -> Solid D

[smoltchanov]

1. Arizona

2. Nevada

3. Indiana
4. Tennessee

5. Florida
6. Missouri

7. North Dakota
8. Montana
9. Texas

Changes:

WV: Lean D -> Likely D
ME: Likely D -> Solid D

Extremely optimistic....