2018 Senate Rankings

[Xing]

Haven’t really changed my ratings, but just thought I’d mention here that Larry Sabato finally moved WI-SEN from Lean D to Likely D. He also moved PA-SEN from Likely D to Safe D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ND and IN are leaning GOP

[Hoosier_Nick]

Haven’t really changed my ratings, but just thought I’d mention here that Larry Sabato finally moved WI-SEN from Lean D to Likely D. He also moved PA-SEN from Likely D to Safe D.

The fact that WV is still a toss-up is now his biggest blindspot, I feel.

[Bumaye]

Safe D: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, California, New Mexico, Virginia, New York, Washington, Michigan, Wisconsin   
 
Likely D: Ohio, Nevada, Arizona 
   
Lean D: Montana, West Virginia, Missouri, Tennessee 
   
Tossup: North Dakota   
   
Lean R: Florida, Indiana, Texas 
   
Likely R: - 
 
Safe R: Mississippi, Wyoming, Utah, Nebraska 
   
 
Just my two cents as a random European who has no idea how half the people running even look like. I'm very sceptical about Nelson. Scott is a well known challenger with tons of money and he is ahead in most polls. Indiana has moved red quite heavily in recent years and Trumps approval unlike in many surrounding states is still solid. He can pull through in the right environment but it is an uphill battle in my book. On the other hand the sunbelt has moved blue a bit and Cruz is a horrible person. He is no Moore but Texas is not Alabama either. Beto trails him by like 6 points, I can definitely see him overcoming that with growing name recognition and an enthusiasm gap. When it comes to Heitkamp I have absolutely no freaking clue. McCaskill benefits from the sorry state of the GOP in Missouri, otherwise I would see her in the same position as Donnelly.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In a crushing development for the GOP, the Senate race in the deeply Republican state of West Virginia goes from Toss-Up to Lean D.

Safe D (15): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA, MN-Special
Likely D (4): MI, NJ, PA, WI
Lean D (4):  NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, WV
Toss-Up (5): ND, TN, FL, MO, MT
Lean R (1): IN (D+1)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

Lean D OH, Lean R IN, and Safe R TX = hackery

Brown +17=Lean D
Cruz +6=Safe R
Donnelly Tied=Lean R
McCaskill +4=Tossup
Manchin +10=Lean D

Hmm...

Right out of my document:

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[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D FL, WVA, MO, OH, Pa, MN, AZ, NV
Tossup TN, ND, IN and yes TX😀
Safe R UT, NEB, WY, MS

[Rhenna]

SAFE DEM
New York
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Maine (King)
Vermont (Sanders)
Maryland
Delaware
Virginia
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Minnesota Special
California
Washington
Hawaii
New Mexico

LIKELY DEM
New Jersey
Nevada

LEAN DEM
Missouri
Arizona
West Virginia
Montana

TOSS UP
Florida
Tennessee

LEAN GOP
Indiana
North Dakota

LIKELY GOP
Texas
Nebraska

SAFE GOP
Utah
Wyoming
Mississippi
Mississipp Special

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Cruz goes, it  be tough, but he's only up by five

[Sadader]

(colors wrong way around but whatever)


MN-Special Likely D -> Safe D

FL Likely D -> Lean D

It was probably premature to label FL as Likely D, but I still expect Nelson to pull it out fairly easily. I doubt I ever have to change it again.

ND Likely D -> Lean D

I still mantain that Heitkamp is safer than Tester, but she’s not on the same level as Manchin or Brown at the moment.

NE Safe R -> Likely R

I really doubt that Fischer loses, but if Ohio is only Likely D, Nebraska isn’t completely Safe R. I wouldn’t be extremely surprised at something like a 10 point win, but the votes aren’t there right now. When more polling comes out I’ll be more happy to move this and Ohio to the Safe column (despite how much I hate Brown).

Indiana remains the bellwether IMO

[Blackacre]

Update time! As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

First up, Maryland. It's still Safe D, but I'm removing the "might become competitive in the future" qualification because Manning lost. However, I do have to move Minnesota-Special out of Safe and into the Likely D column due to Smith substantially under-performing Klobuchar in a recent poll.

The final change is North Dakota, which goes from Leans D to Tilts D to reflect a poll that has Heitkamp behind. However, I still believe she is favored.

Titanium Democratic: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Democrat at the ballot box. (1)
The Great State of California

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (15)
VT, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, CT, WA, HI, DE, MD, MN, VA, PA, MI

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (6)
MN-S, WI, NJ, OH, WV, AZ

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
MT, NV, MO

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
ND, TN

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (2)
IN, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (0)
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TX

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (2)
NE, MS-S

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (3)
MS, WY, UT

And here's a visual aid! For states with both Special elections and Regular ones, the standard election is marked with an R, and the Special is marked with an S.

Democrats: 50 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
Pure tossup: 2 seat
Uncorrelated Expected Result: (coming tonight)
Leans-only Expected Result: (coming tonight)
Tilts-only Expected Result: (coming tonight)
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+4
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+4

There are eight competitive races this cycle: MT, NV, MO, ND, TN, FL, IN, and TX. Democrats must win six of them to gain the majority; Republicans must win three of them to keep it.

Arizona is probably staying out of the competitive window even if McSally wins, based on the polling that shows Sinema strongly ahead of all of her challengers.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Updated:

Updated

[GeorgiaModerate]

Updated:

Updated

Has anyone ever suggested you have a problem with commitment?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Updated:

Updated

Has anyone ever suggested you have a problem with commitment?

Most of my changes are polling based and generated by the fact the national enviroment continually trends slightly away from the Dems. The only exception is Arizona and at this point it's clear by state polling that this race is lean Dem.   

[Zaybay]

Updated:

Updated

Has anyone ever suggested you have a problem with commitment?

Most of my changes are polling based and generated by the fact the national environment continually trends slightly away from the Dems. The only exception is Arizona and at this point it's clear by state polling that this race is lean Dem.   

...really? The national environment has been the same for the entire year, excluding the polling desert that was May. The media has constantly been saying "the Dems are in disarray" and that "the GOP is gaining" but little has changed. The environment is 7-8 and its been hovering around this point for the entire year.

Also MT as a tossup? Yeah, that Matt Rosendale is a true threat.

[Thunder98]

My Senate prediction as of 6/30/18. (MS and MN specials should be at a likely color shade, but for some reason 270 has it in the light color shade instead)

The Senate remains at 51-49

Democratic Pickups: AZ, NV, TN

Republican Pickups: ND, MO, IN

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LTE's july update is quite interesting:

[Galaxie]

AL = MS Special
IA = MN Special

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

As it stands today:

MS-SPECIAL: Probable R; MN-SPECIAL: Likely D
Without tossups

Changes from prior predictions: ND -> Toss-up; FL -> Toss-up; AZ -> Lean D.

I had long resisted moving AZ to toss-up, but the recent rash of very good Sinema polls, combined with some light, possibly idle chatter of the NRSC considering triaging the race gives me the excuse to move Arizona.

Heitkamp is really struggling and I think that she's in the position to be adversely impacted by the Supreme Court, moreso than any of the other Trump state Dems outside of Donnelly, who very well may already be DOA. Manchin has his own brand and could survive a no vote and Tester drew a weaker opponent and could also survive a no vote on the nominee.

And to Florida - Nelson's struggles against Scott are well documented. The polling average points to a coin flip race and that's where I'm leaning as well. Ultimately, I think he pulls it out, but it'll be the closest race of Nelson's career and I would not be surprised in the slightest if Scott wins.

If the Texas polling average continues to hover around Cruz +5, I'll consider a move to Lean R, but I'm not there yet.

No change to the no toss up map, but my next move will be to move ND to the R column if Heitkamp's polls continue to be middling.

New maps:

MS-SPECIAL: Probable R; MN-SPECIAL: Likely D
Without tossups

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

51-49

Titanium Democratic: CA
Safe Democratic: CT, DE, HI, MA, MD, MN, NM, NY, RI, VT (I), WA,
Likely Democratic: ME (I), MI, MN (special), NJ, PA, VA
Lean Democratic: AZ, MT, NV, WI, WV
Tilt Democratic: FL, MO, ND, TN
Tilt Republican: IN
Lean Republican: TX
Likely Republican: MS (special), NE
Safe Republican: MS, UT, WY

[😥]

Safe D:CA, CT, DE, HI, MA, MD, MN, NJ, NM, NY, RI, VT, VA,WA
Likely D:ME, MI, MN(special), PA, OH
Lean D:AZ, MO, MT, NV, WI, WV
Tilt D:ND
Tossup/Tilt D:TN
Tossup/Tilt R:IN, FL
Lean R:TX
Likely R:NE
Safe R:MS, UT, WY


MS special:Likely R (if Espy vs Hyde-Smith)
                 Lean D (if Espy vs McDaniel)

EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON THE SPECIAL ELECTION IN THE MISSISSIPPI


Other map without Tossup/Tilt DR

[Mr. Illini]

Safe D: VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA
Likely D: MI, NJ, PA, WI, MN-Special
Lean D:  AZ, OH, MT
Toss-Up: ND, TN, FL, MO, WV, NV, IN
Lean R:
Likely R: MS-Special, TX
Safe R: MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

[BlueDogs2020]

Likely D: NJ, WI, MN-Special, OH
Lean D: AZ, WV, MT
Tilt D: MO, NV, TN
Tilt R: FL, IN, ND
Lean R: TX
Likely R: MS-Special, NE

No Tossups
Rest are Safe for incumbent party

[Orser67]

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, VT, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI, MN, NM
Very Likely Democratic:  ME, NJ, MI, MN-special, PA
Likely Democratic: WI, FL, OH, MT
Lean Democratic: WV, ND, IN, MO, NV, AZ
Tossup: None
Lean Republican: TN
Likely Republican: TX, MS-special
Very Likely Republican: MS
Safe Republican: NE, WY, UT

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, VT, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI, MN, NM
Very Likely Democratic:  ME, NJ, MI, MN-special, PA, VA
Likely Democratic: WI, OH, MT
Lean Democratic: WV, ND, IN, MO, NV, AZ, FL
Tossup: None
Lean Republican: TN
Likely Republican: TX, MS-special
Very Likely Republican: MS
Safe Republican: NE, WY, UT

I still think that Republicans winning FL in this mid-term year is unlikely, but given the polling I feel compelled to move the race to Lean D. I'm feeling pretty good about my other ratings.

[LimoLiberal]

LimoLiberal Official 2018 Senate Rankings
7/10/18 (I plan to do this monthly)
Including commentary. Rating change shown in parentheses using >>

Safe R:
NE
WY
MS
UT
MS-Special
TX (Likely R >> Safe R) Polling looks great for Cruz.

Likely R:
ND (Lean R >> Likely R) Heitkamp's standing looks disastrous in recent polling.
TN (Lean R >> Likely R) Trump's incredible appeal in this state will overcome Bredesen's.

Lean R:
MO
IN
FL (Tilt R >> Lean R) Nelson is getting hammered in ads while Scott continues his record fundraising and campaigning. Scott's strength with Latinos is further cementing this flip.

Tilt R:
MT
NV (Tossup >> Tilt R) Rosen keeps burning money on ads but can't seem to raise her recognition in the state as disastrous details about her business experience come to light.

Tossup:
AZ
WV

Tilt D:  
WI

Lean D:
OH
NJ

Likely D:
MI
VA
PA
MN-Special (Lean D >> Likely D) National Rs don't seem to be making a play here, and MN is not a Trump state.

Safe D:
MA
CT
RI
MN
WA
DE
MD
CA
NY

Likely I:
Nothing here.

Safe I:
VT
ME (Likely I >> Safe I) King's challengers are weak sauce.

Without allocating tossups, my current projections are 55 Republicans, 41 Democrats, 2 Independents,  and 2 Tossups.

Democrats pick up nothing, while Republicans pick up North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Montana and Florida.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

No need to unignore Limo for his predictions.