2018 Senate Rankings

[Politician]

VT in the same category as MT? Makes no sense, Phil Scott actually won in 2016 by a convincing margin, but Republicans couldn’t beat Bullock. Also, Rosendale.

Also VT is competitive because "New England whites will soon vote like Southern whites!"

[Politician]

Changes:
Vermont: Titanium D->Safe D

[Alabama_Indy10]

Iowa is minnesota special
Alabama is mississippi special

west virginia is safe r cuz blankenship wasn't nominated
california is likely d cuz of top-two lockout

Your map sucks

[KingSweden]

Iowa is minnesota special
Alabama is mississippi special

west virginia is safe r cuz blankenship wasn't nominated
california is likely d cuz of top-two lockout

Your map sucks

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Iowa is minnesota special
Alabama is mississippi special

west virginia is safe r cuz blankenship wasn't nominated
california is likely d cuz of top-two lockout

Your map sucks

[Xing]

Iowa is minnesota special
Alabama is mississippi special

west virginia is safe r cuz blankenship wasn't nominated
california is likely d cuz of top-two lockout

Your map sucks

I'm guessing that this map is a collection of Atlas memes (Safe R WI, Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller, Titanium Tester, Nelson in BIG trouble, Manchin is DOA since Blankenship didn't win, Menendez is totally vulnerable, etc.)

[Blackacre]

Changes:
Vermont: Titanium D->Safe D

did a republican declare?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Changes:
Vermont: Titanium D->Safe D

did a republican declare?

http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/633/201801240200047633/201801240200047633.pdf

[Strudelcutie4427]

Minnesota Special (Likely D)
Mississippi Speacial (Likely R)
Both held here until the primaries

D+2 to R+6
If you think there are too many toss ups, it's because there havent been alot of primaries yet

[Politician]

Minnesota Special (Likely D)
Mississippi Speacial (Likely R)
Both held here until the primaries

D+2 to R+6
If you think there are too many toss ups, it's because there havent been alot of primaries yet

I didn't realize Oregon had a Senate race this year!

[Strudelcutie4427]

Minnesota Special (Likely D)
Mississippi Speacial (Likely R)
Both held here until the primaries

D+2 to R+6
If you think there are too many toss ups, it's because there havent been alot of primaries yet

I didn't realize Oregon had a Senate race this year!

For some reason I thought they did. Just ignore it

[Blackacre]

Welp, VT is actually going to be contested by a Republican, which means Vermont isn't titanium D anymore. If CA gives us a DvR runoff for Senate, I'll retire the Titanium D and Titanium R ratings entirely.

Titanium Democratic: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Democrat at the ballot box. (0)
Nothing here

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (17)
VT, CA, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, CT, WA, HI, DE, MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, PA, MI

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (4)
NJ, OH, WI, AZ,

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (5)
MT, NV, WV, ND, IN

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
FL, TN, MO

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (0)
Nothing here.

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (0)
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TX

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (2)
NE, MS-S

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (3)
MS, WY, UT

Titanium Republican: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Republican at the ballot box. (0)
Nothing here

And here's a visual aid! For states with both Special elections and Regular ones, the standard election is marked with an R, and the Special is marked with an S.

Democrats: 52 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
Pure tossup: 0 seats
Uncorrelated Expected Result: ~D+0.6
Leans-only Expected Result: ~D+0.8
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+1.8
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+4
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+5

There are nine competitive races this cycle: MT, IN, WV, MO, TX, TN, FL, NV, and ND. Democrats must win seven of them to gain the majority; Republicans must win three of them to keep it.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Trump has created a major self inflicted wound for Republicans with his new tariffs.

Because of this, a total of 9 races shift to the left.

Likely D to Safe   D: IN, MO, MT, NV
Lean   D to Likely D: WV, ND
Lean   R to Lean   D: TN
Likely R to Lean   R: TX
Safe   R to Likely R: NE

[KingSweden]

Trump has created a major self inflicted wound for Republicans with his new tariffs.

Because of this, a total of 9 races shift to the left.

Likely D to Safe   D: IN, MO, MT, NV
Lean   D to Likely D: WV, ND
Lean   R to Lean   D: TN
Likely R to Lean   R: TX
Safe   R to Likely R: NE

This is totally jumping the gun.

[Sestak]

Trump has created a major self inflicted wound for Republicans with his new tariffs.

Because of this, a total of 9 races shift to the left.

Likely D to Safe   D: IN, MO, MT, NV
Lean   D to Likely D: WV, ND
Lean   R to Lean   D: TN
Likely R to Lean   R: TX
Safe   R to Likely R: NE

This is totally jumping the gun.

[ON Progressive]

Trump has created a major self inflicted wound for Republicans with his new tariffs.

Because of this, a total of 9 races shift to the left.

Likely D to Safe   D: IN, MO, MT, NV
Lean   D to Likely D: WV, ND
Lean   R to Lean   D: TN
Likely R to Lean   R: TX
Safe   R to Likely R: NE

This is totally jumping the gun.

[OneJ]

I can’t wrap my mind around placing MT, IN, and MO as less competitive than ND let alone putting the former three races at safe D.

[Yellowhammer]

Trump has created a major self inflicted wound for Republicans with his new tariffs.

Because of this, a total of 9 races shift to the left.

Likely D to Safe   D: IN, MO, MT, NV
Lean   D to Likely D: WV, ND
Lean   R to Lean   D: TN
Likely R to Lean   R: TX
Safe   R to Likely R: NE

This is laughable.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Trump has created a major self inflicted wound for Republicans with his new tariffs.

Because of this, a total of 9 races shift to the left.

Likely D to Safe   D: IN, MO, MT, NV
Lean   D to Likely D: WV, ND
Lean   R to Lean   D: TN
Likely R to Lean   R: TX
Safe   R to Likely R: NE

You realize the tariff nonsense will only matter if it causes the economy to tank, right?

It will definitely cause the economy to tank. It does not take a PHD in economics to know that this is going to be the result.

[Politician]

Trump has created a major self inflicted wound for Republicans with his new tariffs.

Because of this, a total of 9 races shift to the left.

Likely D to Safe   D: IN, MO, MT, NV
Lean   D to Likely D: WV, ND
Lean   R to Lean   D: TN
Likely R to Lean   R: TX
Safe   R to Likely R: NE

This is laughable.

[Politician]

[nerd73]

Trump has created a major self inflicted wound for Republicans with his new tariffs.

Because of this, a total of 9 races shift to the left.

Likely D to Safe   D: IN, MO, MT, NV
Lean   D to Likely D: WV, ND
Lean   R to Lean   D: TN
Likely R to Lean   R: TX
Safe   R to Likely R: NE

This is laughable.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

My mind model says Nebraska goes from Safe R to Safe D

[nerd73]

This is probably what Solid's ratings will look like on election day:

[KingSweden]

This is still a bit bullish on Dems but much more defensible than Solid’s nonsense