2018 Senate Rankings

[Rhenna]

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/2d13L8
August rankings.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LTE had the dems winning the senate today lmao.

[Lognog]

LTE had the dems winning the senate today lmao.

LTE had both MN and WI gov's as lean D (the same likelihood of flipping), at this point I just watch him as a meme

[Zaybay]

LTE had the dems winning the senate today lmao.

LTE had both MN and WI gov's as lean D (the same likelihood of flipping), at this point I just watch him as a meme

Yeah, hes not a really good analysis. Normally, I would forgive him since hes a kid, but Im pretty sure a lot of users here are his age, and they are much better at this "election" thing.

Just looking at his recent house elections, he has TJ Cox winning in CA, so, yeah, he doesnt really dive in and look at data, rather, he just looks at state lean, polls right now, and makes a conclusion.

[Lognog]

LTE had the dems winning the senate today lmao.

LTE had both MN and WI gov's as lean D (the same likelihood of flipping), at this point I just watch him as a meme

Yeah, hes not a really good analysis. Normally, I would forgive him since hes a kid, but Im pretty sure a lot of users here are his age, and they are much better at this "election" thing.

Just looking at his recent house elections, he has TJ Cox winning in CA, so, yeah, he doesnt really dive in and look at data, rather, he just looks at state lean, polls right now, and makes a conclusion.

I'm about his age, think two years older. But I don't get that he puts so much work into the channel while only doing pretty surface level observations

[Former President tack50]

Almost certainly very inaccurate but anyways:

With tossups

Changing the tossups into tilts

FL: Tilt R
TN: Tilt R
MO: Tilt R
ND: Tilt R
IN: Tilt D
NV: Tilt D

Overall result: 52R-48D (R+1)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TN has a SSM ban on the ballot that benefits Blackburn

[Thunder98]

Senate Prediction (As of August 20th, 2018)

Changes:

52 GOP-48 Dems

TN: Tilt D ===> Lean R

WI: Likely D ====> Safe D

FL: Tilt R ====>Lean R

[Progressive Pessimist]

TN has a SSM ban on the ballot that benefits Blackburn

Really? That is so stupid. Just accept that you lost on this issue, Republicans! You're winning on everything else, just throw in the towel on this one!

[Thunder98]

TN has a SSM ban on the ballot that benefits Blackburn

Really? That is so stupid. Just accept that you lost on this issue, Republicans! You're winning on everything else, just throw in the towel on this one!

Um there is no SSM Ban propositions on the ballot in TN this year. Cory is completely mistaken.

 https://ballotpedia.org/November_6,_2018_ballot_measures_in_Tennessee

[GeorgiaModerate]

TN has a SSM ban on the ballot that benefits Blackburn

Really? That is so stupid. Just accept that you lost on this issue, Republicans! You're winning on everything else, just throw in the towel on this one!

Um there is no SSM Ban propositions on the ballot in TN this year. Cory is completely mistaken.

 https://ballotpedia.org/November_6,_2018_ballot_measures_in_Tennessee

There was one in 2006, I believe.  He's only off by 12 years.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

TN has a SSM ban on the ballot that benefits Blackburn

Really? That is so stupid. Just accept that you lost on this issue, Republicans! You're winning on everything else, just throw in the towel on this one!

Um there is no SSM Ban propositions on the ballot in TN this year. Cory is completely mistaken.

 https://ballotpedia.org/November_6,_2018_ballot_measures_in_Tennessee

There was one in 2006, I believe.  He's only off by 12 years.

Also, the majority of TN voters approve of SSM.

[ElectionsGuy]

MN-S: Likely D
MS-S: Safe R

MI: Likely D --> Safe D
TN: Lean R --> Likely R
TX: Likely R --> Lean R

[😥]

Safe D:CA, CT, DE, HI, MA, MD, MN, NJ, NM, NY, RI, VT, VA,WA
Likely D:ME, MI, MN(special), PA, OH
Lean D:AZ, MO, MT, NV, WI, WV
Tilt D:ND
Tossup/Tilt D:TN
Tossup/Tilt R:IN, FL
Lean R:TX
Likely R:NE
Safe R:MS, UT, WY
MS-special: Likely R Hyde-Smith vs Espy
                      Lean D McDaniel vs Espy


Safe D:CA, CT, DE, HI, MA, MD, MN, NM, NY, RI, VT, VA, WA
Likely D:ME, MI, MN(special), PA, OH, MT, WV
Lean D:AZ, MO, WI
Tilt D:NV, IN
Tossup/Tilt D:TN
Tossup/Tilt R:FL
Lean R:TX, ND
Likely R:NE
Safe R:MS, UT, WY
MS-special: Likely R Hyde-Smith vs Espy
                      Lean D McDaniel vs Espy

[2016]

My Prediction: The Senate won't be decided on Election Day (Night) given Arizona & Nevada are closing at 9 and 10pm ET.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Out of an abundance of caution because of the polling we have seen, I am moving Texas out of the Safe Category. I fully expect that Republicans will come home and that the race will return to the Safe Category by election day, but at this point in time I am not confident enough to keep it there. So Texas moves to Likely R.

Also moving out of the Safe Category is New Mexico. This moves to Likely D due to the candidacy of Gary Johnson.

Safe D (17): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI
Likely D (2): NJ, NM
Lean D (4):  NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, WV
Toss-Up (5): ND, TN, FL, MO, MT
Lean R (1): IN (D+1)
Likely R (2): MS-Special, TX
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Out of an abundance of caution because of the polling we have seen, I am moving Texas out of the Safe Category. I fully expect that Republicans will come home and that the race will return to the Safe Category by election day, but at this point in time I am not confident enough to keep it there. So Texas moves to Likely R.

Also moving out of the Safe Category is New Mexico. This moves to Likely D due to the candidacy of Gary Johnson.

Safe D (17): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI
Likely D (2): NJ, NM
Lean D (4):  NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, WV
Toss-Up (5): ND, TN, FL, MO, MT
Lean R (1): IN (D+1)
Likely R (2): MS-Special, TX
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

"Out of an abundance of caution"
"TX-SEN Likely R while OH is Lean D"

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Out of an abundance of caution because of the polling we have seen, I am moving Texas out of the Safe Category. I fully expect that Republicans will come home and that the race will return to the Safe Category by election day, but at this point in time I am not confident enough to keep it there. So Texas moves to Likely R.

Also moving out of the Safe Category is New Mexico. This moves to Likely D due to the candidacy of Gary Johnson.

Safe D (17): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI
Likely D (2): NJ, NM
Lean D (4):  NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, WV
Toss-Up (5): ND, TN, FL, MO, MT
Lean R (1): IN (D+1)
Likely R (2): MS-Special, TX
Safe R (4): MS-Regular, NE, WY, UT

"TX-SEN Likely R while OH is Lean D"

My ratings treat each state as an independent contest and where I rank one contest does not determine where I rate any other contest. I believe that ratings are more accurate when each state is treated independently and one does not consider whether a random selection of 2 or 3 ratings "makes sense together" or not.

On Ohio specifically, while Brown is undoubtedly favored, I remain hesitant to make him too much of a favorite given how violently Ohio swung to the right in 2016.

On Texas, I will note for the record that I am a blue texas skeptic and will remain so until dems do well there on election day.

[Orser67]

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, VT, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI, MN, NM
Very Likely Democratic:  ME, NJ, MI, MN-special, PA, VA
Likely Democratic: WI, OH, MT
Lean Democratic: WV, ND, IN, MO, NV, AZ, FL
Tossup: None
Lean Republican: TN
Likely Republican: TX, MS-special
Very Likely Republican: MS
Safe Republican: NE, WY, UT

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, VT, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI, MN, NM
Very Likely Democratic:  ME, MI, MN-special, PA, VA
Likely Democratic: WI, NJ, OH, MT
Lean Democratic: WV, IN, MO, NV, AZ, FL
Tossup: ND
Lean Republican: TN, TX
Likely Republican: MS-special
Very Likely Republican: MS
Safe Republican: NE, WY, UT

Moved TX, ND, and NJ because of polling. Will move FL to tossup as well if Scott keeps leading in the polls, but ultimately I think that Nelson will win.

[windjammer]

So much overreaction about North Dakota it's ridoculous

[KingSweden]

So much overreaction about North Dakota it's ridoculous

Tossup is a fair rating

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There hasn't been no polling, recently

[Politician]

I'm being generous to the GOP in Wisconsin, Nevada and North Dakota.

[windjammer]

So much overreaction about North Dakota it's ridoculous

Tossup is a fair rating

Oh I agree, but nothing has changed about this race during the last 6 months.