2018 Senate Rankings

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats arent gonna win 13 gov mansions

[Kwal]

Democrats arent gonna win 13 gov mansions

Probably, but that’s not impossible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sabato says 5-8 seats

[Politician]

Democrats arent gonna win 13 gov mansions

Probably, but that’s not impossible.

[Blackacre]

Time for some long-overdue changes to the map.

The first one is pretty straightforward. California has a Dem vs Dem Senate race, so it advances to Titanium D and thus leaves the Senate map entirely. Next, I was too bullish on Dems in Indiana against Braun. This race is a tossup and also possible even the marquee race of the cycle.

On the other hand, Missouri moves out of the Tilt range for the first time into Leans Democratic territory, due to the MO GOP's utter incompetence and the swings toward Dems in special elections there. In addition, West Virginia moves off the competitive radar into the Likely Democratic column, due to Manchin's multiple double digit leads over Morrissey.

Titanium Democratic: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Democrat at the ballot box. (1)
The Great State of California

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (16)
VT, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, CT, WA, HI, DE, MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, PA, MI

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
WI, NJ, OH, WV, AZ

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
MT, NV, ND, MO

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
FL, TN

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (1)
The Great State of Indiana

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (0)
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
The Great State of Texas

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (2)
NE, MS-S

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (3)
MS, WY, UT

And here's a visual aid! For states with both Special elections and Regular ones, the standard election is marked with an R, and the Special is marked with an S.

Democrats: 51 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
Pure tossup: 1 seat
Uncorrelated Expected Result: ~D+0.7
Leans-only Expected Result: ~D+1.0
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+1.7
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+4
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+4

There are eight competitive races this cycle: MT, NV, ND, MO, TN, FL, IN, and TX. Democrats must win six of them to gain the majority; Republicans must win three of them to keep it.

Also, quick word on the map itself in terms of where states are relative to each other:
Vermont is the strongest Safe Democratic state, Michigan is the weakest.
Wisconsin is the strongest Likely Democratic state, Arizona is the weakest.
Montana and Nevada have much stronger Democratic leans than Missouri and North Dakota
New Jersey and Montana would have been upgraded to Safely D and Likely D respectively had their primary elections gone differently
And Arizona and Maryland are the final states with a superposition rating that will be resolved in a primary.

[Blackacre]

In addition, just for fun, I'm going to visualize the 5 scenarios for the 2018 midterms that could happen. These are NOT equally likely to happen, and for the most part the Senate maps are imprecise on which exact seats go which way.

Scenario 1: Hofold Was Right

In the House, Democrats only gain 3 seats, +-5. An absolutely pitiful result that proves that the blue wave was actually more of a Red Ripple, an overhyped piece of fluff that faded into nothingness. In the tail end of this result, Democrats wouldn't even be able to claim a popular vote win or even a net gain of seats, It is an absolute disaster.

Of course, the Red Ripple is felt more acutely in the Senate. Though the GOP pissed away a seat in Arizona that would have been very winnable if they didn't nominate a horrible candidate, they made up for it by sweeping the tossups and tilt/lean Democratic races. They held onto Nevada and Tennessee and picked up Indiana, Florida, Missouri, Montana, and North Dakota easily. Even some of the more heavily favored Democrats, like Baldwin and Brown and Manchin, had to sweat on election night. And with so many of those barely-out-of-reach seats, it stood to reason that one of them would fall. The hated Bob Menendez will not be returning to work come January. All Democrats can do now is wait for their final inevitable loss when Hyde-Smith curbstomps Espy in Mississippi.

This is the only outcome in which the GOP improves its standing. With 56 seats and a maintained House majority, they can once again aim their sights on Obamacare. They have more power now than they've had in almost a century, and it was time to use it.



tldr: GOP easily holds house. In Senate, they sweep everything Leans D or worse and picks off one of the Likelies.

Scenario 2: Pyrrhic Republican Victory

In the House, Democrats pick up 15 seats, +-5. That isn't enough to take over, but they still pulled in a reasonable 5 point PV win. They can complain about gerrymandering to their heart's content, as well they should: it likely screwed them over. Still, they had the energy for a Blue Wave, so seeing it fizzle out into only a Blue Puddle must have been very disappointing.

In the Senate, Republicans expand their narrow majority. They did lose Nevada, but it was a Clinton state anyway. They lost Arizona, but they can blame that squarely on Ward. What they were able to do was hold Tennessee, and not only pick up Indiana and Florida, but also Missouri and North Dakota. McCaskill was only a point or two from being the luckiest woman in politics ever, but close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and proportional representation. There's still the Mississippi Special, but Hyde-Smith looks like an overwhelming favorite against Espy.

However, while this wasn't a good night for Democrats, the GOP didn't walk away unscathed either. They only have one more Senate seat now than they did when Trump was sworn in, and their House majority was reduced to the single digits. With the Freedom Caucus, that kind of "win" will make governing almost impossible. Democrats lick their wounds, get back up, and prepare for their next chance in 2020.



tldr: Dems come kinda close, but don't take the house. In the Senate, GOP takes everything Tilts Democratic and worse while splitting the Leans 50/50 with Dems.

Scenario 3A: Pure Chaos

In the House, Democrats take 25 seats, +-5. This is within the range of a House takeover, but at the tail end, they come up just short. They were warned that a 7-8 point PV win would only get them this result, and here we are. Either way, one party holds a House majority of only a small handful of seats, which means we're in for a brutal fight for the speakership. Pelosi and McCarthy are not exactly celebrating. No matter who hits 218, the House will be a bastion of chaos for a while. A Tuesday Group speaker may even be in the cards. The Blue Wave may have shrunk into a Blue Ripple, but even a Ripple is felt over long distances.

In the Senate, things are just as much balanced on a razor's edge. Democrats pick up the three seats they needed: Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee, but all the takes about the bad map came to fruition and but them in the butt. They suffered losses in Indiana and Florida, putting the Senate back at 50/50, with Pence deciding control.

However, it's not that simple a Republican win. The GOP may have a technical majority, but thanks to McCain, they lack a working majority. 50 seats plus Pence isn't great when only 49 of your members can be counted on to show up. Senate control and Whip Count are constantly in flux, and this means that the chamber's moderates, like Bredesen, Collins, Manchin, Murkowski, and Jones (plus McCain whenever he's around) will have a LOT of influence. Of course, this also means extra attention must be placed on the upcoming Mississippi Special, for while Espy is a clear underdog against Hyde-Smith, their battle could decide the fate of the entire Senate.



tldr: The House comes down to the wire. In the Senate, the GOP wins the tossups and the Tilts races on both sides are split evenly.

Scenario 3B: Pure Chaos but with a Democratic Senate

Same thing in the House. Only difference is that Rick Scott fizzles out as a challenger and Nelson lands a straightforward win. Now, the Democratic pickups are enough to get them a 51/49 majority, which can be extended to 51/48 when McCain isn't around. The moderates will still have power, but now, so does Schumer, who can screw over Trump's nominees as he pleases. There's aways a chance Espy could increase that majority further, but it's a small one.



Scenario 4: The Blue Wave Materializes

Democrats taste a definitive and complete victory for the first time in ages. They pick up 40 seats in the House, +-5. While technically they don't have AS big a majority as the one they took from the GOP, they broke a few gerrymanders and took back a lot of lost ground while gaining new ground. It's a result worthy of their 10 point PV win, and Pelosi's speakership is all but assured.

The wave affected the Senate, too. Every single Democratic incumbent will be returning to the Senate in 2019, and they'll be joined by new Democrats from Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee. Some of them had to sweat, like Donnelley and McCaskill, but they all made it over the finish line. With 52 seats, Schumer can even afford a defection, maybe even 2 when McCain isn't around. And to cap off the Democrats' string of electoral victories, they have some moral ones. In Texas, Beto O'Rourke lost, but he kept Cruz to a respectable 5-point margin while setting up infrastructure for Texas Dems to use in the future. And in Mississippi, while Hyde-Smith is still favored against Espy, his strong performance in Round 1 told the world that he can't be counted out just yet. Regardless, Schumer is setting his sights on the much more favorable 2020 Senate map. 60 seats may be a stretch, but wave this strong just might be able to get him there.



tldr: Democrats easily take the house. They also take anything Tilts Republican or better in the Senate.

Scenario 5: Nut

The Blue Flood. The Blue Tsunami. Everyone thought it was just a myth, a legend. Nobody could have truly prepared themselves for this. A 12+ point PV win. A gain of 65 seats (+-10) in the House. Gerrymanders breaking left and right. It is Tump's winter and the beginning of Pelosi's spring. Democrats everywhere rejoiced, after a long night glued to their screens just watching to see how far this tsunami really took them. Spoiler alert: very far.

In the Senate, every Trump state Democrat survived, outperforming polls and expectations in the process. Scott fizzled out. Braun gaffed one too many times. Hawley shot himself in the butt. Rosendale did absolutely nothing. Deb Fischer in Nebraska sweated more than Joe Manchin. The wave swept through Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee, but the real crown jewel in this Democratic victory is Texas. They managed to topple Ted Cruz and make Texas a purple state, without a drop of Super PAC money. But of course, we still have a Special Election in Mississippi, where Espy not only got a impressive showing in Round 1, but is favored against his opponent in Round 2: Chris McDaniel. Regardless, Schumer looks ahead to 2020, where getting a 60th seat has just gone from a pipe dream to a realistic possibility.

Now, in Scenario 4, I said that every Democratic incumbent survived. Not so here. Joining Freshman Senators Rosen, O'Rourke, Bredesen, and Sinema, we have a Californian Senator named Kevin de Leon.



tldr: Nut

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very nicely done.  I always enjoy posts like this that cover a whole spectrum of outcomes.

[Politician]

My scenarios:

1. NUT:

Democrats win both Mississippi seats.

2. The Blue Wave:

3. A Close Shave:

4. A Blue Disappointment:

5. Blue Ripple:

6. Limo/Lear Scenario:

7. Rally Around the Flag (a 9/11 type scenario happens):

8. Trump Worship/The Red Bloodbath:

Odds of each scenario:
1. Extremely Unlikely
2. Somewhat Unlikely
3. Likely
4. Somewhat Likely
5. Unlikely
6. Very Unlikely
7. Extremely Unlikely
8. Near-Impossible

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Scaled the ratings back to a non-hackish level.

[Politician]

Scaled the ratings back to a non-hackish level.

These ratings are far more accurate. However, I'd not rate Florida as Safe D, Scott could definitely win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems may have 48 seats -1 and that will narrow their losses so they can take back Senate in 2020.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Dems may have 48 seats -1 and that will narrow their losses so they can take back Senate in 2020.

Those are some interesting ratings. DE right of Pa? FL as Likely R? CA as competitive?

[Edgeofnight]

here is my possibly hackish senate predictions, feel free to rip me apart.

MN Special: Safe D
MS Special: Likely R

Ratings: Safe (90%), Very Likely (70%), Likely (50%), Lean (30%), Tossup (Green).

Let me justify some of the more controversial ones:

Indiana:Braun is objectively a better candidate than either of his Republican rivals could have been, but he's still kinda "meh." The only general election poll right now has Braun leading slightly over Donnelly, but the follow up to that is that the poll comes from Gravis. Not the best pollster in history, and the race was well within the 5% margin of error. Without reliable polling, all we have is conjecture. The national environment and incumbency start Donnelly off as the slight favorite in this race. 538 wrote an interesting piece about a year ago about incumbent, opposition Party senators in midterm years. The short version is that, since 1982, only 4 of these senators have run for and lost re-election, out of 114. Keep this statistic in mind. In the absence of more reliable polling that shows Braun ahead, Donnelly should be considered favored.

Tennessee: Bredesen is very much a "hype" candidate. Bredesen is basically if Bill Weld ran for Senate against Elizabeth Warren. Yes he's a former Governor who was massively popular, but he is still a Democrat running in Tennessee. Polling shows him ahead, but the polling itself is also messy and from some questionable sources. The fact that this race is any thing other than safe R is because Corker is retiring, Blackburn is kinda a weak candidate, Bredesen is a strong candidate, and the national environment is Democratic friendly. This race could still easily go either way.

Missouri:People calling McCaskill dead on arrival is a meme. In theory, Hawley is the perfect candidate. He's young, he holds statewide office, and he isn't a pervert or a nutcase (that we know of). But I'm of the belief that Hawley is a paper tiger. And the most recent campaign finance reports back me up on this. The April finance reports have McCaskill raising 5 times as much as Hawley. I find myself back at that 538 statistic again. McCaskill's incumbency, better fundraising, and the national environment should make her the easy favorite, but she is still a Democrat in Missouri. Another strike against her is her mediocre-at-best approval ratings. Like Tennessee, this race could go either way. McCaskill could easily be another statistical anomaly.

Florida:Rick Scott sucks as a candidate. If Josh Hawley is a paper tiger, Rick Scott is a paper pony. Yes, he's the incumbent Governor with good approval ratings. Yes, he can self fund. Senator Spaceman does not care, and neither should you. Nelson overpreformed Obama by 5 points in 2012, defeating his challenger by more than 1 million votes. If you go by margin, while Obama won Florida by .9%, Nelson won by 13%. This opponent was also said to be his top tier, cream of the crop challenger, who manged to not stick his foot in his mouth, and Nelson still crushed him. This isn't a one off thing either. Nelson almost always over preforms other Democrats running statewide in Florida. He won in 2000 by 4.8% while Al Gore lost the presidential race in the state by .0009%, and he won in 2006 by 22.2% while the Democrat running for Governor lost by 7.1%. Yes, you can talk about the external factors, such as the quality of his opponent, but the point still stands. Incumbency+National Environment+Nelson's past of winning by really good margins makes him favored in November. Scott, by contrast, has only ever won in large, GOP waves, and has never breached 50% statewide before. He only beat Charlie Crist by 1.0%, and won in 2010 with 1.2%. Scott's current approval ratings are good, but his past campaigns are underwhelming to say the least.

North Dakota:See the reasoning in Missouri and apply that here. The reason this is lean D versus tossup is that Heitkamp has better approval ratings. I will also say that Cramer is probably a better candidate than Hawley is, but is still nothing drastically exciting.

[KingSweden]

At least you wrote detailed analysis

[Blackacre]

The issue with using GIFs as visual aids is that I put off needed updates, especially small ones. I have a ratings change coming up, it'll probably be tonight if I can muster the will to do it.

[Politician]

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 48
Toss-ups: 2

Changes:
Arizona: Lean D->Likely D
Michigan: Solid D->Safe D
Mississippi: Solid R->Safe R
Nebraska: Solid R->Safe R
North Dakota: Lean D->Likely D
Ohio: Likely D->Solid D
Pennsylvania: Solid D->Safe D
Tennessee: Lean D->Tossup
Texas: Lean R->Likely R

Solid is represented by 70% and indicates a 90-98% chance of victory for the favored party.

[Blackacre]

Alright, update now, and I'll add the visual aid tonight. Wulfric please remind me when I hop on the server lmao.

So the change is in Florida. While the fundamentals of the race (blue national environment, Trump barely won it, longtime incumbent) still favor Democrats, Scott's been maintaining leads in the current polling. I can no longer say that Bill Nelson is favored; the race moves to Toss-Up. Fundamentals still matter too much for me to say that Scott is favored, but that will only last so long; the race will shift further if Scott maintains his lead past Labor Day.

Titanium Democratic: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Democrat at the ballot box. (1)
The Great State of California

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (16)
VT, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, CT, WA, HI, DE, MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, PA, MI

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
WI, NJ, OH, WV, AZ

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
MT, NV, ND, MO

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (1)
TN

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (2)
IN, FL

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (0)
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
The Great State of Texas

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (2)
NE, MS-S

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (3)
MS, WY, UT

And here's a visual aid! For states with both Special elections and Regular ones, the standard election is marked with an R, and the Special is marked with an S.
(coming tonight)
Democrats: 50 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
Pure tossup: 2 seat
Uncorrelated Expected Result: ~D+0.6
Leans-only Expected Result: ~D+0.9
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+1.6
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+4
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+4

There are eight competitive races this cycle: MT, NV, ND, MO, TN, FL, IN, and TX. Democrats must win six of them to gain the majority; Republicans must win three of them to keep it.

This may not seem like a big change, as it's only worth 10% of a Senate seat according to all 3 of my crude models, but this is still big. Democrats are no longer favored in enough seats to win the Senate; they must win at least one of the tossups to reach 51.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Scenarios:

1: Red Tsunami


2: Red Wave


3: Red Ripple


4: Status Quo


5: Blue Ripple


6: Blue Wave


7: Blue Tsunami


8: Blue Earthquake


9: Blue Fissure


The Blue Ripple Scenario is the most likely here.
Probability Distribution:

1/9: 2.17%
2/8: 4.35%
3/7: 8.70%
4/6: 17.39%
5: 34.78%

[adrac]

1. Arizona

2. Nevada

3. Indiana
4. Tennessee

5. Florida
6. Missouri


7. North Dakota
8. Montana
9. West Virgina
10. Texas

Changes:

FL: Lean D -> Tilt D
The continued difference in polling and fundraising has caused me to move this race to the right, even though I still expect Nelson to pull it out in the end.

[Politician]

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 48
Toss-ups: 2

Changes:
Michigan: Safe D->Solid D
New Jersey: Solid D->Safe D
North Dakota: Likely D->Lean D

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In a crushing development for the GOP, the Senate race in the deeply Republican state of West Virginia goes from Toss-Up to Lean D.

Safe D (15): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA, MN-Special
Likely D (4): MI, NJ, PA, WI
Lean D (4):  NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, WV
Toss-Up (5): ND, TN, FL, MO, MT
Lean R (1): IN (D+1)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[wesmoorenerd]

In a crushing development for the GOP, the Senate race in the deeply Republican state of West Virginia goes from Toss-Up to Lean D.

Safe D (15): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA, MN-Special
Likely D (4): MI, NJ, PA, WI
Lean D (4):  NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, WV
Toss-Up (5): ND, TN, FL, MO, MT
Lean R (1): IN (D+1)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

Lean D OH, Lean R IN, and Safe R TX = hackery

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cruz can lose reelection, he's not safe😁

[Lachi]

In a crushing development for the GOP, the Senate race in the deeply Republican state of West Virginia goes from Toss-Up to Lean D.

Safe D (15): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA, MN-Special
Likely D (4): MI, NJ, PA, WI
Lean D (4):  NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, WV
Toss-Up (5): ND, TN, FL, MO, MT
Lean R (1): IN (D+1)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

Lean D OH, Lean R IN, and Safe R TX = hackery

OH is lean D for him, yet he still gives Brown a 77% chance of winning. His range for lean is ridiculous.

[Politician]

In a crushing development for the GOP, the Senate race in the deeply Republican state of West Virginia goes from Toss-Up to Lean D.

Safe D (15): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA, MN-Special
Likely D (4): MI, NJ, PA, WI
Lean D (4):  NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, WV
Toss-Up (5): ND, TN, FL, MO, MT
Lean R (1): IN (D+1)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

Lean D OH, Lean R IN, and Safe R TX = hackery

Brown +17=Lean D
Cruz +6=Safe R
Donnelly Tied=Lean R
McCaskill +4=Tossup
Manchin +10=Lean D

Hmm...