2018 Senate Rankings

[Kodak]

70 Edit: 60 days before election day, Nelson has the slimmest of leads in Florida, which would result in a split Senate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

70 days before election day, Nelson has the slimmest of leads in Florida, which would result in a split Senate.

Nitpick: it's 60 days until election day.

[mcmikk]

Small ratings update:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aPDpxa.png

Changing ND and FL back to Lean D because I recently learned that Tilts are for cowards. Besides, the colors are ugly as hell.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MS B is a tossup

[adrac]

1. Arizona
2. Nevada

3. Indiana
4. Tennessee
5. Florida

6. Missouri
7. North Dakota

8. Montana
9. Texas

Changes:

AZ: Likely D -> Lean D Shoulda done this forever ago.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Firearm to head pushes as of today:

[Politician]

Manchin losing while Donnelly and McCaskill win? #analysis

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin losing while Donnelly and McCaskill win? #analysis

Trump is not approved of enough to hurt Donnelly or McCaskill too badly in their states, but he is like a God-emperor tier candidate in WV with super high approvals, and I think he throws his weight around for Morrisey A LOT there and allows Manchin to narrowly lose.

[Politician]

Manchin losing while Donnelly and McCaskill win? #analysis

Trump is not approved of enough to hurt Donnelly or McCaskill too badly in their states, but he is like a God-emperor tier candidate in WV with super high approvals, and I think he throws his weight around for Morrisey A LOT there and allows Manchin to narrowly lose.

Fair, but a lot of Trump people love Manchin, especially ancestral Dems in southern WV.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin losing while Donnelly and McCaskill win? #analysis

Trump is not approved of enough to hurt Donnelly or McCaskill too badly in their states, but he is like a God-emperor tier candidate in WV with super high approvals, and I think he throws his weight around for Morrisey A LOT there and allows Manchin to narrowly lose.

Fair, but a lot of Trump people love Manchin, especially ancestral Dems in southern WV.

Also fair, if this was not the case, the race would be a Morrisey blowout, which is not and has nearly no chance of occurring.

[Xing]

IL-17 going Republican?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

IL-17 going Republican?

Oh oopsie, thanks for catching that, sorry it's an error on my end, I'll fix it. Nah, it's a safe D race, my bad.

[IceSpear]

Manchin losing while Donnelly and McCaskill win? #analysis

That could easily happen if the midterms become a referendum on Trump. He's polarizing in IN/MO but popular in WV.

My gripe with his ratings is the fact that he has Dino Rossi winning despite him doing far worse than expected in the jungle primary.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

IL-17 going Republican?

He edited his post. That was changed.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bredesen is leading in the Marist poll and Sinema can buck the trend should Ducey prevail and win.

[Xing]

IL-17 going Republican?

He edited his post. That was changed.

I made that post before he edited his map.

[junior chįmp]

With tossups:



Without tossups:

[Galaxie]

[TarHeelDem]

With tossups:



Without tossups:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Donnelly probably loses and Cruz, will win, due Beto's totally leftward swing on social justice.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some updates due to recent polls and primary results:

Definitions:

Safe: The outcome is all but certain, barring something crazy upending the race.
Likely: It would be a real surprise if the favorite lost, but it's not completely implausible.
Lean: Neither outcome would be a surprise, but one side has a definite advantage.
Tilt: It's really close, but if forced to choose there's one I'd pick.
Tossup: I don't have a clue (to be avoided if possible).

Ratings:

Safe D/I (16): CA, CT, DE, HI, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NM, NY, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA
Likely D (4): MN-S, NJ, OH, WI
Lean D (7): AZ, FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, WV
Tilt D (1): TN
Tilt R (1): ND
Lean R (1): TX
Likely R (1): MS-S
Safe R (4): MS, NE, UT, WY

Changes in this update:

AZ: Likely D to Lean D.
FL: Tilt D to Lean D.
IN: Tilt D to Lean D.
MT: Likely D to Lean D.
ND: Lean D to Tilt R.
PA: Likely D to Safe D.
TX: Likely R to Lean R.

Overall: if all the races go the way they're forecast, the result would be D+2 (gain AZ/NV/TN, lose ND), giving them 51 seats.  But because the Democrats are favored only weakly in so many races, their chances of gaining control are only about 40%-45%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IN isn't lean D

[Kodak]

Updated poll map.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Bredesen is leading in the Marist poll and Sinema can buck the trend should Ducey prevail and win.

Donnelly probably loses and Cruz, will win, due Beto's totally leftward swing on social justice.

The massive shift in this OC map proves a red wave is coming.