Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[wbrocks67]

The EV vote has Ryan in NY-19 ahead in the most Pub county in the district, Schorarie (sp), and indeed the state by 20 points. Which means ... ?

What will be interesting is election day turnout, which seems low across the board in most races in NY. Key will be if Ryan got enough of a boost then from these EV returns

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1562249723913900032?s=20&t=VAAJwu9KZCrW5xQ...

More Alaska

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Schoharie is nearly all in with Molinaro+30.6% vs Trump+29%

[wbrocks67]

Peltola now 7% ahead of Palin with a few more thousand in

Peltola 38.6% (was 38.2%)
Palin 31.6% (was 31.8%)
Begich 28.3%  (was 28.5%)

[Brittain33]

Schoharie is nearly all in with Molinaro+30.6% vs Trump+29%

That doesn’t point to an 8-point win like the poll predicted.

[It’s so Joever]

Schoharie is nearly all in with Molinaro+30.6% vs Trump+29%

Yeah I was worried it was just a mirage. Smh New York.

[wbrocks67]

Wow. Duchess early vote has Ryan 74-26

[GeorgiaModerate]

What do we think is the magic number for Peltola in the first round?  41% or so?

[Brittain33]

Molinaro just dropped from 74c to 66c on Predictit

[wbrocks67]

Turnout will likely be low, even Ulster was only on track to like ~30-35K for the end of today based on their results earlier. It was nearly 80K in 2018 and nearly 100K in 2020.

[Brittain33]

Matching Ryan jump from 34c to 43c.

[wbrocks67]

What do we think is the magic number for Peltola in the first round?  41% or so?

At a minimum yeah

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow. Duchess early vote has Ryan 74-26

A bit of trivia that I never knew until visiting the county is that it's actually spelled "Dutchess", which is an archaic form of the word "Duchess" that's used today.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If it holds, the Sullivan county number is a concern, that was a Delgado county two years ago. But Ryan so far outperforming in all the counties he's carrying. Ryan did underperform Delgado in Schoharie but not by much.

[Holmes]

It’s gonna be a nail biter. It could come down to turnout and how the ED vote turned out in Ulster and Dutchess.

[It’s so Joever]

[Lief 🗽]

If I were an employee of Data4Progress, and I had an ounce of integrity left, I would tender my resignation before midnight.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1562251896022335489

[Utah Neolib]

Mules have been activated in NY-19.

[Gracile]

If it holds, the Sullivan county number is a concern, that was a Delgado county two years ago. But Ryan so far outperforming in all the counties he's carrying. Ryan did underperform Delgado in Schoharie but not by much.

Delgado's numbers are a poor point of comparison since he massively overperformed everywhere. It was always unlikely that Ryan would come close to that even if he were to win.

[Brittain33]

Predictit went back to favoring Molinaro. And I won’t post future swings unless one side crashes.

[wbrocks67]

If it holds, the Sullivan county number is a concern, that was a Delgado county two years ago. But Ryan so far outperforming in all the counties he's carrying. Ryan did underperform Delgado in Schoharie but not by much.

Delgado's numbers are a poor point of comparison since he massively overperformed everywhere. It was always unlikely that Ryan would come close to that even if he were to win.

Yep, Delgado actually lost Sullivan in 2018 while winning by 5.

[Gass3268]

30% of 2020 votes voted in Schoharie County.

[It’s so Joever]

Yeah Molinaro should take it

[wbrocks67]

30% of 2020 votes voted in Schoharie County.

Seems about right. Ulster was headed towards roughly that as well, maybe like 35%.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah Molinaro should take it

He only outperformed Trump by 2.7% in the reddest county. Will have to see if Ryan's margins in the blue counties overtake that