Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[Tintrlvr]

Duchess appears to be done. Ryan +1.4 there.

Delgado won 5.5 in 2018 and it basically matched his district share.

Delgado won 10 there in 2020 and beat it districtwide by 2

Do we know how Biden did in Duchess?

Where are you getting this?

Just going off of the old NYT pages for NY-19 in 2018 and 2020

Dangerous because NYT doesn't always update for final results once a race is called.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 45,735 (53.67%)
MOLINARO: 39,485 (46.33%)

DELLA PIA: 27,548 (52.42%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 25,002 (47.58%)

[GALeftist]

Board of Elections has Dutchess at Molinaro+2.7. I don't think that will get to +8 or anything, but Molinaro will probably outperform my benchmark for a tied race (Molinaro+2 or so). Not super out of line with my expectations though. Good rule of thumb is that Ryan needs ~3 points of overperformance to cancel out 5 points of Molinaro's in Dutchess.

[Gass3268]

Duchess appears to be done. Ryan +1.4 there.

Delgado won 5.5 in 2018 and it basically matched his district share.

Delgado won 10 there in 2020 and beat it districtwide by 2

Do we know how Biden did in Duchess?

Where are you getting this?

Just going off of the old NYT pages for NY-19 in 2018 and 2020

I meant Ryan up 1.4 in Duchess? I'm on the county website and Molinaro is up.

[wbrocks67]

Montgomery seems to be close to done? Molinaro +32

R+26 in 2018
R+13 in 2020

[Person Man]

RYAN: 45,019 (53.77%)
MOLINARO: 38,713 (46.23%)

DELLA PIA: 27,378 (52.73%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 24,546 (47.27%)

We've been at >99% for like 2/3 of the votes counted in NY-19 lol

So there’s 15k votes left and a difference of 7k?

[It’s so Joever]

Montgomery seems to be close to done? Molinaro +32

R+26 in 2018
R+13 in 2020

It’s only a part of Montgomery.

[wbrocks67]

Duchess appears to be done. Ryan +1.4 there.

Delgado won 5.5 in 2018 and it basically matched his district share.

Delgado won 10 there in 2020 and beat it districtwide by 2

Do we know how Biden did in Duchess?

Where are you getting this?

Just going off of the old NYT pages for NY-19 in 2018 and 2020

I meant Ryan up 1.4 in Duchess? I'm on the county website and Molinaro is up.

It was Ryan +1.4 prior to the latest update

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 48,684 (53.95%)
MOLINARO: 41,559 (46.05%)

DELLA PIA: 27,548 (52.42%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 25,002 (47.58%)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Montgomery seems to be close to done? Molinaro +32

R+26 in 2018
R+13 in 2020

It’s only a part of Montgomery.

Small part voted Trump + 35 in 2020 but was only 6k votes, meaning there def is room for fluctuations.

[GALeftist]

Is Columbia truly done? Bc if so Ryan+26 seems *insanely* good for Ryan, right?

[OSR stands with Israel]

RYAN: 31,049 (56.74%)
MOLINARO: 23,675 (43.26%)

DELLA PIA: 23,521 (56.49%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 18,115 (43.51%)

At what point do you begin to be concerned as Molinaro or even Sempolinski?

Ryan is all but definitely the winner, although Sempolinski still has somewhat of a chance. Moderation is key at this point. The 2013 GOP autopsy is right if November looks anything like the last few special elections including the Kansas referendum. Trumpism was a last horrah for right-wing populism, but centrism should be the primary direction, as younger voters in particular are far less likely to be conservative compared to even their parents.

The GOP could easily form a big base among socially moderate/conservative Latino voters if they moderated some of the Trump stuff.

The main issue is republicans don’t have a unifying principle that can bring in the economic and social conservatives together like they used to until 2008. Until 2008 the idea that American Hegemony was beneficial to both the US and the world binded the Party wings together. Since 2008 the GOP hasn’t had a unifying philosophical belief that could bring the party together other than dislike government.

Agreed. The people who told me Trump's coalitions was unsustainable were right, I just didn't realize it would crumble the moment he left office.

I think the main issue people forget to mention is that both the New Deal and Reaganite coalitions lasted cause they came to power , delivered on making fundamental change and the nation generally thought it was in a better place thanks to them then it was before .

No coalition will last unless you have a similar president from either party who can be that successful

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is Columbia truly done? Bc if so Ryan+26 seems *insanely* good for Ryan, right?

Though 7k votes would be extremely low turnout which wouldn't neccessarily be good. There's def more to come out of it.

The remaining votes tends to be very unreliable in NY so everyone take these % with a grain of salt. NYT said NY-10 was 95% in at 47k and it seems like the final total will be closer to 70k

[wbrocks67]

Caveats, but NYT is at about 80% finished with 89K of the vote.

That would put us at about ~112,000 votes, which would line up rather close to the 1/3 of 2020 turnout we're seeing overall

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 49,317 (53.67%)
MOLINARO: 42,577 (46.33%)

DELLA PIA: 28,665 (52.01%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 26,452 (47.99%)

[wbrocks67]

Is Columbia truly done? Bc if so Ryan+26 seems *insanely* good for Ryan, right?

Though 7k votes would be extremely low turnout which wouldn't neccessarily be good. There's def more to come out of it.

The remaining votes tends to be very unreliable in NY so everyone take these % with a grain of salt. NYT said NY-10 was 95% in at 47k and it seems like the final total will be closer to 70k

True, they say Ulster is 90% done at 27K but I think they'll likely end up at least 30-35K

[ProgressiveModerate]

Caveats, but NYT is at about 80% finished with 89K of the vote.

That would put us at about ~112,000 votes, which would line up rather close to the 1/3 of 2020 turnout we're seeing overall

I would think in this district because of the special election as well as being higher propensity, it'd prolly be slightly higher than the state overall.

[kwabbit]

NYT is saying counties are completed when they aren’t. They were also doing that in the NYC congressional primaries. I think they are underestimating turnout perhaps.

[wbrocks67]

Ok, now NYT claiming Ulster is >95% but with Ryan +28

That would be even on par with Delgado's +27.7 in 2020

[LimoLiberal]

CUE THE PREDICTIT SWINGS

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1562268783070564353

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Della Pia still ahead in NY-23, but Seneca and Tioga counties have flipped over to the GOP now. Going to be tough to stay ahead.

[SnowLabrador]

Is it just me or does this actually look kind of good for Ryan?

[Torie]

Columbia seems to be done? 65-35 Ryan

+15 Delgado in 2018
+24 Delgado in 2020

So that can't be right unless Ryan is insanely overperforming in really blue areas

I know many Pubs in Columbia County, albeit ones with whom I have some rapport, including one who "hired" me sort of. They all hate Trump. Columbia County perhaps has the highest Dem delta function in NY-19, and perhaps the state.

[Brittain33]

Ddhq close to 100k votes counted so far

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 53,435 (53.58%)
MOLINARO: 46,286 (46.42%)

DELLA PIA: 28,802 (51.47%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 27,158 (48.53%)

I think Ryan is close to winning.