Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[Vice President Christian Man]

I'm as pro-life as it comes, but it's clear that the GOP needs to change its messaging, at least in more socially moderate areas like Upstate NY. I'm not advoctaing for a pro-choice direction but the Roe decision is really harming things but I think it's better to wait until November. If this is representative of the rest of the country, it could do more long term damage for the GOP than 1/6 did. I think it's fear of Obergefell than anything else though. Even a majority of Reps approve of gay marriage and Justice Thomas threatening to overturn it made a lot of people angry including GOP voters.

[GALeftist]

Molinaro is actually doing worse than my benchmarks in Schoharie rn. However, I did adjust for the fact that I thought we would see more polarization like in other recent specials, and therefore greater Molinaro margins in red counties. I would say this is anyone's race.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A bit ironic cause this was the opposite of 2020 where the ED vote was counted first in NY and there was a red mirage.

[wbrocks67]

Random tiny precinct in Broome, Ryan outperforms Biden by 3%

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1562259162142314496

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 31,049 (56.74%)
MOLINARO: 23,675 (43.26%)

DELLA PIA: 23,521 (56.49%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 18,115 (43.51%)

At what point do you begin to be concerned as Molinaro or even Sempolinski?

[It’s so Joever]

CNN got NY 23 totals wrong, so Dia May not actually be overperforming at all. Idiots.

[Vice President Christian Man]

RYAN: 31,049 (56.74%)
MOLINARO: 23,675 (43.26%)

DELLA PIA: 23,521 (56.49%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 18,115 (43.51%)

At what point do you begin to be concerned as Molinaro or even Sempolinski?

Molinaro is still the underdog, although Sempolinski has somewhat of a chance. Moderation is key at this point. The 2013 GOP autopsy is right if November looks anything like the last few special elections including the Kansas referendum. Trumpism was a last horrah for right-wing populism, but centrism should be the primary direction, as younger voters in particular are far less likely to be conservative compared to even their parents.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 34,154 (56.57%)
MOLINARO: 26,220 (43.43%)

DELLA PIA: 24,193 (56.69%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 18,486 (43.31%)

CNN got NY 23 totals wrong, so Dia May not actually be overperforming at all. Idiots.

DDHQ says he is leading by 14 with 89% in. Idiots.

Also supposedly >99% in NY-19

[Gass3268]

Going with a narrow Molinaro win.

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1562261845863448576?s=20&t=fLr-G2qY...

[wbrocks67]

NYT has the race at nearly 50K votes with "50% in"... this would seem close to a 100K total which, again, given the 30-35% turnout from 2020 (350K), seems about right.

[It’s so Joever]

RIP RYAN.

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1562262650033414149?s=20&t=3muCZxuo2rx...
That seems a bit more down to earth, at least

[wbrocks67]

Going with a narrow Molinaro win.

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1562261845863448576?s=20&t=fLr-G2qY...

Apparently Duchess has been sitting for a while... questions surrounding whether it's actually close to done or not.

A tied result there would indicate a very very close race district-wide based on the 2018 and 2020 results

[ProgressiveModerate]

Going with a narrow Molinaro win.

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1562261845863448576?s=20&t=fLr-G2qY...

According to NYT 56% is in and he's up 26%

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 37,938 (56.48%)
MOLINARO: 29,234 (43.52%)

DELLA PIA: 24,592 (55.08%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 20,056 (44.92%)

Ryan got a 1.5% bump LOL

[Gass3268]

Going with a narrow Molinaro win.

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1562261845863448576?s=20&t=fLr-G2qY...

According to NYT 56% is in and he's up 26%

The NYT is way behind the county.

[It’s so Joever]

With Greene in, I am calling this race for Molinaro.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 31,049 (56.74%)
MOLINARO: 23,675 (43.26%)

DELLA PIA: 23,521 (56.49%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 18,115 (43.51%)

At what point do you begin to be concerned as Molinaro or even Sempolinski?

Ryan is all but definitely the winner, although Sempolinski still has somewhat of a chance. Moderation is key at this point. The 2013 GOP autopsy is right if November looks anything like the last few special elections including the Kansas referendum. Trumpism was a last horrah for right-wing populism, but centrism should be the primary direction, as younger voters in particular are far less likely to be conservative compared to even their parents.

The GOP could easily form a big base among socially moderate/conservative Latino voters if they moderated some of the Trump stuff.

[It’s so Joever]

Greene is a HUGE MOLINARO OVERPERFORMANCE

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Greene is a HUGE MOLINARO OVERPERFORMANCE

Forum lurker, do you want Molinaro to win?

[Comrade Funk]

Greene is a HUGE MOLINARO OVERPERFORMANCE

LMAO HUGE OVERPERFORMANCE FOR FINDSTADT IN WATONWAN

You're coming off as an unhinged stan for a lame Republican in a special election that's thousands of miles away. What's wrong?

[wbrocks67]

Greene seems to be done, 7.7k total. 23.7K in 2020.

~32% turnout again. The two reddest counties have seen about 1/3 turnout of 2020.

[Brittain33]

Greene is a HUGE MOLINARO OVERPERFORMANCE

Please, please don’t make me put on my moderator hat tonight. (Referring more to the series of posts than specifically the content of this one.)

[wbrocks67]

Delgado lost Greene by 14% in 2018 while winning 5% districtwide

Molinaro up 22, so that would signal 3% win districtwide if uniform.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

With Greene in, I am calling this race for Molinaro.

LOL. He's down by 8%

RYAN: 41,621 (54.31%)
MOLINARO: 35,009 (45.69%)

DELLA PIA: 25,983 (53.31%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 22,753 (46.69%)

Greene is a HUGE MOLINARO OVERPERFORMANCE

That's only 4%