Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[Torie]

I'm still keeping this at tossup/tilt Molinaro.

Firstly, it'd be quite a change if Dems streak of putting up solid performances in special elections (in demographically similar seats) suddenly just stops. Also, everyone keeps talking about how strong of a candidate Molinaro is, he's def not a garbage dump, but neither were Flood or Finstad. He just seems like a pretty generic R and nothing seems particuarly bad about Ryan.

Finally, this seat went to Biden in 2020 and has a good chunk of what many might consider to be the "Dem machine" or just very reliable liberal voters.

The one thing I think potentially works for Molinaro is that upstate NY tends to be a bit "overreactive" to national shifts so even a small shift in Rs favour nationally could make things very tricky for Ryan.

Both Ryan and Molinaro are solid candidates. Ryan's only problem (not sure it will matter much), is that Ryan is running in a different CD for next year, while Molinaro is running in the same one. So this race is effectively about whether or not Molinaro in the General will be running as an incumbent or not, which could indeed be a critical factor since the new NY-19 is a bit more Dem than the old one because Cervas rejected my advice to keep Tompkins out of the CD.  

It will be interesting to see if Molinaro is the incumbent how much he uses the couple of months to separate himself from Trump. Trump is really, really toxic in the more prosperous parts of the CD. The higher the SES of a precinct, the higher the Dem percentage, outside of a few precincts that have a lot of people of color, like the one I am sitting in.

There is no Dem machine. It is more about upscale reliable white Dem voters, many of whom vote from their second homes, which drives the local Pubs nuts.

I think this part of NY has a bit of spillover culturally from places like MA; you have quite a lot of smaller Dem towns that have been quite reliable even as rural areas have re-aligned. You also have a few areas that are tourism heavy, most notably Ulster County which also fits the definition of high SES precinct.

The Birkenstock Belt in Columbia County has now spread to near everything that is scenic, leaving the unattractive housing rich area of Stockport (including methhead heavy Stottville), the flat and unattractive crop fields of Livingston,  the dumpy area of Niverville, and the boring lower middle class tract housing area of Valatie as the last strong Pub holdouts.  The rest is trending Dem hard now.

As to Ulster, it is less the tourist areas, and more second home areas (Woodstock being both), in addition to New Paltz being a college town.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OK-SEN (8 ET): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/23/us/elections/results-oklahoma-us-senate-special.html

NY (9 ET):

19th: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/23/us/elections/results-new-york-us-house-19-special.html

23rd: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/23/us/elections/results-new-york-us-house-23-special.html

[walleye26]

When will alaska dump the 33K ballots?

[Oryxslayer]

When will alaska dump the 33K ballots?

If Cinyc's tweets last week were accurately timestamped to the limited ballot drops, then probably around midnight est.

[wbrocks67]

When will alaska dump the 33K ballots?

If Cinyc's tweets last week were accurately timestamped to the limited ballot drops, then probably around midnight est.

Eh, not necessarily. Their last dump was on 8/17 at 4pm Alaska time, which would be 8pm EST.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

When will alaska dump the 33K ballots?

If Cinyc's tweets last week were accurately timestamped to the limited ballot drops, then probably around midnight est.

Eh, not necessarily. Their last dump was on 8/17 at 4pm Alaska time, which would be 8pm EST.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KO73UuSufdE

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ak_elections/status/1562205593896570880

[wbrocks67]

Here's how the latest batch came down:

Peltola 1,135 (49.5%)
Palin 566 (24.7%)
Begich 523 (22.8%)
Write-ins 71 (3.1%)
= 2,295

Where things are at:

Peltola 38.2% (was 38.0%)
Palin 31.8% (was 31.9%)
Begich 28.5% (was 28.6%)

[walleye26]

Here's how the latest batch came down:

Peltola 1,135 (49.5%)
Palin 566 (24.7%)
Begich 523 (22.8%)
Write-ins 71 (3.1%)
= 2,295

Where things are at:

Peltola 38.2% (was 38.0%)
Palin 31.8% (was 31.9%)
Begich 28.5% (was 28.6%)

Assuming that the remaining 31K ballots break down that way, I feel like Petola might be in decent shape.

[It’s so Joever]

Finally found a single vote related snap in Columbia County, couldn’t get much other information unfortunately, it was a male who posted it but that’s the most I can find.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Here's how the latest batch came down:

Peltola 1,135 (49.5%)
Palin 566 (24.7%)
Begich 523 (22.8%)
Write-ins 71 (3.1%)
= 2,295

Where things are at:

Peltola 38.2% (was 38.0%)
Palin 31.8% (was 31.9%)
Begich 28.5% (was 28.6%)

Assuming that the remaining 31K ballots break down that way, I feel like Petola might be in decent shape.

It'll be pretty bizarre if Peltola somehow wins in the final round while Ryan loses. It will make this year's political environment even more confusing. I guess the common denominator would be the candidates: Molinaro being a good one for NY-19 and Palin reaping what she sowed from being perceived as caring more about fame than Alaskans, even if it is in fact by virtue of a unique electoral system.

I still think Palin wins in the end though, unfortunately. Just really intriguing to consider the aforementioned scenario.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Here's how the latest batch came down:

Peltola 1,135 (49.5%)
Palin 566 (24.7%)
Begich 523 (22.8%)
Write-ins 71 (3.1%)
= 2,295

Where things are at:

Peltola 38.2% (was 38.0%)
Palin 31.8% (was 31.9%)
Begich 28.5% (was 28.6%)

Assuming that the remaining 31K ballots break down that way, I feel like Petola might be in decent shape.

It'll be pretty bizarre if Peltola somehow wins in the final round while Ryan loses. It will make this year's political environment even more confusing. I guess the common denominator would be the candidates: Molinaro being a good one for NY-19 and Palin reaping what she sowed from being perceived as caring more about fame than Alaskans, even if it is in fact by virtue of a unique electoral system.

I still think Palin wins in the end though, unfortunately. Just really intriguing to consider the aforementioned scenario.

Still people are bringing it up enough that even the R hacks admit Peltola will get at least ~45%, which is an overperformance.

[It’s so Joever]

Polls close soon!

[Gass3268]

Damn, Ryan getting ~80% of the early vote in Ulster

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1562244607219564544?s=20&t=0RDPqFa1SLfL...

[It’s so Joever]

Early vote…in a heavily Democratic county. Yeah it’s good but you don’t know it’s anything yet.

[It’s so Joever]

Otsego has dropped some, must be early vote.

[Brittain33]

That’s a few thousand more than the EV reported yesterday. Maybe it includes mail, too.

[It’s so Joever]

Is Broome a reporting error?

[wbrocks67]

Early vote…in a heavily Democratic county. Yeah it’s good but you don’t know it’s anything yet.

https://twitter.com/AshleyDittus/status/1561707146026389510

Doing some math, based on how the EV is looking, it looks like Others/Indies are breaking 50/50

[It’s so Joever]

Also starting to get early results in NY-23 but that’s not as exciting ofc.

[Gass3268]

Ryan looks to be getting the margin he needs in Schoharie County.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1562247664313450496?s=20&t=0RDPqFa...

[Shilly]

Molinaro is leading in Schoharie County by 30.7%. Trump won it by 29.0%.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling OK Special Sen R for Mullin!

[It’s so Joever]

Calling OK Special Sen R for Mullin!

Thank you, I was extremely worried this race would be a nail biter.

[Torie]

The EV vote has Ryan in NY-19 ahead in the most Pub county in the district, Schorarie (sp), and indeed the state by 20 points. Which means ... ?