Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[rc18]

So any minute now the West is going to apply sanctions on Azerbaijan...right?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So any minute now the West is going to apply sanctions on Azerbaijan...right?

Azerbaijan is less likely to be sanctioned by the EU now than that any point in the recent past or near future. Along with Russia’s preoccupation, that is why they instigated this.

[rc18]

So any minute now the West is going to apply sanctions on Azerbaijan...right?

Azerbaijan is less likely to be sanctioned by the EU now than that any point in the recent past or near future. Along with Russia’s preoccupation, that is why they instigated this.

I know...

However it isn't just that, after all it didn't stop sanctions on Russia. Azeri aggression is also tacitly supported by the US to keep a key hydrocarbon-producing ally onside [where have I seen that before?]. The US could end this if they wanted to. They don't, there are tons of lobbyists in Washington on Aliyev's payroll, far more successful than the Russians...

So despite all the high talk about supporting democracies against aggression from autocrats like in Ukraine, this is only true when interests align.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Azerbaijan is clearly in the wrong here, but they have Israel and Turkey on their side while Armenia has Russia and Iran, so no surprise that the US isn't too interested in helping Armenia.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Azerbaijan is clearly in the wrong here, but they have Israel and Turkey on their side while Armenia has Russia and Iran, so no surprise that the US isn't too interested in helping Armenia.

That is part of the story, but it's also the godforsaken geography: except from the air, America can't credibly project power into the region. Armenia is landlocked and a non-Black Sea navy couldn't access it through Georgia because the Montreaux convention is active. The only other ways to get to it are through Azerbaijan and Turkey, which want this to happen, or Iran and Russia, which wouldn't support a direct American intervention.

[Lord Halifax]

Azerbaijan is clearly in the wrong here, but they have Israel and Turkey on their side while Armenia has Russia and Iran, so no surprise that the US isn't too interested in helping Armenia.

That is part of the story, but it's also the godforsaken geography: except from the air, America can't credibly project power into the region. Armenia is landlocked and a non-Black Sea navy couldn't access it through Georgia because the Montreaux convention is active. The only other ways to get to it are through Azerbaijan and Turkey, which want this to happen, or Iran and Russia, which wouldn't support a direct American intervention.

While it can be a fun exercise to point out "Western hypocrisy" (at least a lot of online types enjoy it) there really isn't any reason for the US to do anything before we know what the Iranians will do. They're hardly going to let Azerbaijan annex Armenia.

[rc18]

Azerbaijan is clearly in the wrong here, but they have Israel and Turkey on their side while Armenia has Russia and Iran, so no surprise that the US isn't too interested in helping Armenia.

Please, international relations do not operate on simplistic "the friend of my enemy is my enemy" takes. For a start Armenia is only a "friend" of Russia and Iran out of pure necessity. Before coming to power Pashinyan's platform included moving away from Russia towards European integration, you just can't state that position as leader because the country's existence depends on military assistance.

It is about US self-interest in keeping the hydrocarbons flowing, that is all. Indeed, the same reason the Biden administration has tried to do a deal with Iran.

[CumbrianLefty]

Azerbaijan did (technically) have international law on their side when they attacked Nagorno-Karabakh, which is de jure Azeri territory.

Shelling Armenia? That's unambiguously an act of war, and totally unjustifiable. It's also the sort of thing that could trigger Armenian alliances with Iran and Russia.

Spoiler alert: Russia isn't going to do sh!t.

Well personally I would approve of them sending lots of their troops currently in Ukraine to here.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Azerbaijan is clearly in the wrong here, but they have Israel and Turkey on their side while Armenia has Russia and Iran, so no surprise that the US isn't too interested in helping Armenia.

Please, international relations does not operate on simplistic "the friend of my enemy is my enemy" takes. For a start Armenia is only a "friend" of Russia and Iran out of pure necessity. Before coming to power Pashinyan's platform included moving away from Russia towards European integration, you just can't state that position as leader because the country's existence depends on military assistance.

It is about US self-interest in keeping the hydrocarbons flowing, that is all. Indeed, the same reason the Biden administration has tried to do a deal with Iran.

I mean sure it could be not so simplistic like when Russia and the US were 2 of only 7 countries to vote nay along with Armenia on a relevant UN resolution here in 2008. But that was 14 years ago.

[Logical]

Reports of at least 49 dead on the Armenian side and 5 for the Azeri.

[It’s so Joever]

So any minute now the West is going to apply sanctions on Azerbaijan...right?

Hopefully not.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Putin's absurd neoimperialistic adventure is screwing over Russia's actual, dependable geopolitical allies. Absolutely despicable. I really hope Iran or other Russia-aligned forces are able and willing to give some help here. Of course the West won't, and while that's unfortunate, the blame lies squarely on Putin for this mess.

[Aurelius]

I hope Cathcon is ok.

Wait I thought he was from Michigan?!

He's in Armenia rn

And he arrived just a few days ago. Unfortunate timing.

Hey, at least this gives him a great opportunity to be an Atlas war correspondent.

The... situation, depending on how it unfolds, may actually compel me to shuft my volunteer focus from agricultural and environmental topics.

Great Armenia: The History of the Catholingian Empire: 2023-2659

It all began when Cathexander the Great, then a humble American scholar seeking international opportunities, arrived in Armenia for a three month program focusing on agriculture and the environment. Only a few days later, the Azeris invaded. Suddenly, Cathexander was drawn to a very different calling. Agriculture and the environment would have to fall by the wayside for a time...

[Storr]

Reports of at least 49 dead on the Armenian side and 5 for the Azeri.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1569590515758137344?s=20

[Logical]

Azerbaijan has suffered terrible casualties as well. The good news is that shelling have mostly subsided although there are still some gunfire reported on some points across the border.
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1569727535163793411

[It’s so Joever]

Also funny how despite the likes of RedVelvet and Compucomp arguing Atlas only cares about invasions when it’s geopolitically expedient, nearly everyone here has strongly condemned and supported sanctions against Azerbaijan (except for me but I am an exception)

[nicholas.slaydon]

Also funny how despite the likes of RedVelvet and Compucomp arguing Atlas only cares about invasions when it’s geopolitically expedient, nearly everyone here has strongly condemned and supported sanctions against Azerbaijan (except for me but I am an exception)

Well, I will wait and see what the goal of the escalation is for Azerbaijan before I condemn them. If their goal is only to fully retake Nagorno-Karabakh, then I would support their right to use military force to reclaim their sovereign territory. However, if this is a war to conquer parts of Armenia's rightful territory, then that would've wrong and I would condemn the Azeris for it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sanctions against Azerbaijan is a question of what sustains and strengthens US interests. There are eventualities that could unfold in which sanctions are unavoidable but they would involve horrifying things I would rather not fixate on at the moment.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Armenia is a Russian treaty ally, why should the any country opposed by Russia be obligated to support them ?

[Lord Halifax]

Also funny how despite the likes of RedVelvet and Compucomp arguing Atlas only cares about invasions when it’s geopolitically expedient, nearly everyone here has strongly condemned and supported sanctions against Azerbaijan (except for me but I am an exception)

Well, I will wait and see what the goal of the escalation is for Azerbaijan before I condemn them. If there goal is only to fully retake Nagorno-Karabakh, then I would support their right to use military force to reclaim their sovereign territory. However, if this is a war to conquer parts of Armenia's rightful territory, then that would've wrong and I would condemn the Azeris for it.

Azerbaijan retaking the rest of Nagorno-Karabakh would result in ethnic cleansing of the Armenian population. Nagorno-Karabakh has always had an Armenian majority, and there's no particular moral reason Azerbaijan should have it, it's just the old Soviet borders. Unlikely Ukraine where Russian possession of Crimea poses a military threat Azerbaijan is in no way threatened by Armenian possession of N-K. In general it's sensible to retain or reestablish the UN recognized international borders, but not if the price is ethnic cleansing and the transfer of territory from a (albeit flawed) democracy to a brutal dictatorship.

There is such a thing as being too principled, and principled about the wrong things.

[Logical]

Armenia is a Russian treaty ally, why should the any country opposed by Russia be obligated to support them ?

Russia is not by Armenia's ally by choice. When Armenia tried to break free from Russia's sphere the Russians gave greenlight to Az's war. The Armenians suffered a great defeat and were forced to grovel back to lick Putin's boots. They have drawn one of the worst geopolitical hands in this world; surrounded on two sides by genocidal maniacs intent on finishing the genocide. The west can't and won't do sh**t. The only other power they can turn to is a broke pariah state who are just slightly better. That said if I were Armenia I'd rather be an Iranian client state than a Russian one. At least they don't leave their friends to the wolves.

[Illiniwek]

These countries have some very strange allies... Alliances this weird haven't been seen since the Nigerian Civil War?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

These countries have some very strange allies... Alliances this weird haven't been seen since the Nigerian Civil War?

I think this one is weirder.

Russia, France, and Israel vs US, UK, Iran, and Sudan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Libyan_Civil_War

[It’s so Joever]

Also funny how despite the likes of RedVelvet and Compucomp arguing Atlas only cares about invasions when it’s geopolitically expedient, nearly everyone here has strongly condemned and supported sanctions against Azerbaijan (except for me but I am an exception)

Well, I will wait and see what the goal of the escalation is for Azerbaijan before I condemn them. If there goal is only to fully retake Nagorno-Karabakh, then I would support their right to use military force to reclaim their sovereign territory. However, if this is a war to conquer parts of Armenia's rightful territory, then that would've wrong and I would condemn the Azeris for it.

No just no. Nagorno Karabakh is ethnically Armenian and I shudder at what would happen if it fell under Baku. If Azeris get Nagorno, Armenians should get Nakchivan.

[Isaak]

It's irrelevant whether NK is "ethnically Armenians" or "populated by Armenians" etc. – neither changes the fact that it is internationally recognized Azeri territory and illegally occupied by Armenian forces. One cannot simply ignore or invalidate this just because the Armenians appear more likable.

Objectively, Azerbaijan has the right to reclaim all of its sovereign territory (if necessary, by force). It does not have the right to attack Armenia proper, of course.