Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[Logical]

This is going to be a conflict that flashes up every two years or so sadly. The Azeri government and its main supporter ,the Turks, needs something to distract their people from their corrupt undemocratic governments and their abysmal economic situation.

[Logical]

There has been another flare up. It appears that Azerbaijan may have invaded southern Armenia. They are taking advantage of the war in Ukraine occupying the world's attention and Russia's current predicament. I'm watching for the Russian and Iranian response.
Russia has a force of peacekeepers stationed in Nagorno Karabakh and a military base in Gyumri. As a member of CSTO, Armenia should have the protection of Russia if Azerbaijan occupies their internationally recognized territories. If Russia's response is weak then it will be a major humiliation. Their sphere of influence will be as good as dead.
Iran is one of Armenia's oldest partners, they have repeatedly warned off Azerbaijan's encroachment of Armenia's borders. I don't think they will look favorably upon this naked land grab. I do not know what they would do but military action is not out of the question.
The rest of the world will issue condemnations but in the end they can do nothing.

[Logical]

There has been another flare up. It appears that Azerbaijan may have invaded southern Armenia. They are taking advantage of the war in Ukraine occupying the world's attention and Russia's current predicament. I'm watching for the Russian and Iranian response.
Russia has a force of peacekeepers stationed in Nagorno Karabakh and a military base in Gyumri. As a member of CSTO, Armenia should have the protection of Russia if Azerbaijan occupies their internationally recognized borders. If Russia's response is weak then it will be a major humiliation. Their sphere of influence will be as good as dead.
Iran is one of Armenia's oldest partners, they have repeatedly warned off Azerbaijan's encroachment of Armenia's borders. I don't think they will look favorably upon this naked land grab. I do not know what they would do but military action is not out of the question.
The rest of the world will issue condemnations but in the end they can do nothing.

Could this have consequences outside the Caucusus region? Does Russia currently have the troops to spare to force Azerbaijan to the table? What happens if Iran gets militarily involved?

The consequences could be huge. Energy prices will spike further, the new EU - AZ gas deal might be killed.
There are about 3-4 thousand Russian troops stationed in the area, they could probably halt Azerbaijan's advance until a ceasefire agreement is reached.
If Iran gets militarily involved then things will get interesting, the Caucasus could see the rise of a new hegemon to replace Russia.

[Logical]

Reports of at least 49 dead on the Armenian side and 5 for the Azeri.

[Logical]

Azerbaijan has suffered terrible casualties as well. The good news is that shelling have mostly subsided although there are still some gunfire reported on some points across the border.
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1569727535163793411

[Logical]

Armenia is a Russian treaty ally, why should the any country opposed by Russia be obligated to support them ?

Russia is not by Armenia's ally by choice. When Armenia tried to break free from Russia's sphere the Russians gave greenlight to Az's war. The Armenians suffered a great defeat and were forced to grovel back to lick Putin's boots. They have drawn one of the worst geopolitical hands in this world; surrounded on two sides by genocidal maniacs intent on finishing the genocide. The west can't and won't do sh**t. The only other power they can turn to is a broke pariah state who are just slightly better. That said if I were Armenia I'd rather be an Iranian client state than a Russian one. At least they don't leave their friends to the wolves.

[Logical]

The US has taken a much stronger stance on the latest Azeri aggression than Russia and CSTO lol.
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570464658707947521

[Logical]

The US has taken a much stronger stance on the latest Azeri aggression than Russia and CSTO lol.
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570464658707947521

Iran's taken a pretty strong stance too. Strange part of the world.

The next step for an expansionist Azerbaijan is conquering NW Iran with its large Azerbaijani speaking population. It is strongly within their interest that Armenia survives.

[Logical]

The US has taken a much stronger stance on the latest Azeri aggression than Russia and CSTO lol.
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570464658707947521

As a California Democrat, not on behalf of the US.

Blinken meanwhile is doing the usual 'both sides' sh**t to avoid pressuring Aliyev,

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1569730123850567680?s=20&t=UBbpGzEMJ5H...

The official readout of these calls are different though and points the finger at AZ
https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-armenian-prime-minister-pashinyan-7/

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke overnight with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to convey our deep concern over the military actions along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, including reports of shelling in Armenia. The Secretary stressed the need for disengagement of military forces and assured Prime Minister Pashinyan that the United States would push for an immediate halt to fighting and a peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-azerbaijani-president-aliyev-6/

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke overnight with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to express deep concern over military action along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, including shelling in Armenia. Secretary Blinken urged President Aliyev to cease hostilities and stressed that the United States would push for an immediate halt to fighting and a peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

[Logical]

If you were a participant in Eurovision you should be eligible EU membership (yes, even Australia).

[Logical]

Major violence warning. Do not watch if you cannot handle extremely distressing content.
https://twitter.com/abrahamyan13/status/1576343443206721537

[Logical]

Major violence warning. Do not watch if you cannot handle extremely distressing content.
https://twitter.com/abrahamyan13/status/1576343443206721537

"This tweet violated the Twitter rules".

Half a dozen Armenian pows executed in cold bold isis style, this isn't the first nor the last video of war crimes to come out from September.
https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1576362319398903808