Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[Figueira]

The amount of hatred between these two countries is incredibly sad.

[CumbrianLefty]

The amount of hatred between these two countries is incredibly sad.

It is, but it is also long standing.

[urutzizu]

As it was asked of a rundown of what is happening:

Massive amount of fake news being disseminated from both sides (I'd not trust *anything* you see on social media), but there are few general trendlines:
Azerbaijan is making relatively consistent advances in the areas that are geographically most accessible.



In green the Areas gained by Azerbaijan which can be verified relatively well, except Jabrayil/Cəbrayıl. They claim to have captured Jabrayil (Town in the South West) but that is unable to be verified yet.

The problem for the Armenians is, Armenian air defense is basically gone now, and the Azeris are causing a ton amount of casualties (and, perhaps more importantly, hits to morale) with drone strikes.
Footage can be found very easily (Azerbaijan is playing them on Billboards on streets. Gives you an idea how all of the country is on full war mode) and it is extremely brutal. Probably around 1000 casualties on the publicly released footage alone, which makes you think how bad the total casualties on the Armenian side are. This is what happens in a conflict where one side is totally technologically outmatched, and I don't think Artsakh can sustain defenses in a prolonged battle if they keep getting hit like this.
The more into the Interior of Karabakh you get, the more mountainous it is. Azeris are going to go for a prolonged battle because they cannot win on the ground yet. But soon they will be able to.


from Paul Ronzeheimer, German newspaper Bild Journalist in Armenia (relatively good source for what's actually going on):

Armenians feel left alone in view of the high number of casualties (up to 4,000). Almost everyone knows someone who has been drafted. "Why is Merkel talking so little about the war here?" Asks Mane, who met us at the airport in Yerevan that morning. Front from here 8 hours drive.

Azerbaijan has targeted civilian areas in Karabakh (with what may have been cluster ammuntion), and Armenia has targeted residential areas in Azerbaijan proper in the City of Ganja. In both populations there is practically complete civil mobilisation and total support for the war, (scenes from Baku yesterday after the capture of Madagiz). Make no mistake, as much as the thought may be reassuring, the claims that this is Aliyev's or Pashinyan's war isn't correct. This is also a total war between the populations.

tldr: doesn't look good for Armenia at this stage, but this can change, especially if Iran and Russia decide Turkey is going to far.

[palandio]

[...]
tldr: doesn't look good for Armenia at this stage, but this can change, especially if Iran and Russia decide Turkey is going to far.

I would be surprised if Russia and Iran hadn't communicated any red lines to Turkey. The questions are:
1. What/Where are these red lines?
2. Does Erdogan intend to respect these red lines?
3. What happens if he doesn't?

[jaymichaud]

Erdogan needs to f*** off because he is so sadistic. Azerbaijan can not become an Islamic state nor should they play any part in his Neo-Ottoman wet dream.

[PSOL]

Azerbaijan could annex a lot of NK proper in the coming conflict, which is the most highly populated part of the area.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Azerbaijan could annex a lot of NK proper in the coming conflict, which is the most highly populated part of the area.

I've a feeling this is going to turn into a nightmarescape.

[jaymichaud]

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

Ah yes, because all attempted breakaway states should be viewed the same and definitely don't have differing levels of legitimacy depending on the circumstances of their independence movements.

They tick the same boxes, boo radley.

Cyprus had 80% Greeks and 18% Turks before the invasion (and 2% Armenians), Nagorno-Karabakh had a 75% Armenian majority when the Soviet Union was dissolved. If the principle of national self-determination had been followed Nagorno-Karabakh would have merged with Armenia and Cyprus with Greece.

[Lord Halifax]

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

Ah yes, because all attempted breakaway states should be viewed the same and definitely don't have differing levels of legitimacy depending on the circumstances of their independence movements.

They tick the same boxes, boo radley.

Cyprus had 80% Greeks and 18% Turks before the invasion (and 2% Armenians), Nagorno-Karabakh had a 75% Armenian majority when the Soviet Union was dissolved. If the principle of national self-determination had been followed Nagorno-Karabakh would have merged with Armenia and Cyprus with Greece.

Misleading. The occupied territory is much bigger than Nagorno-Karabakh proper. The Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast had 76.9% Armenians in the 1989 census vs. 21.5% Azeris (and 1.0% Russians).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh_Autonomous_Oblast#Demography

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Useful reminder that there is a logical and relatively 'fair' solution to this long-term Question, of course.

[TDAS04]

The amount of hatred between these two countries is incredibly sad.

Azerbaijan won’t even allow individuals with Armenian ancestry to enter.

[It’s so Joever]

The amount of hatred between these two countries is incredibly sad.

Azerbaijan won’t even allow individuals with Armenian ancestry to enter.

It’s very similar to the Balkans imo.
Lots of illogical ethnic strife that helps literally no one.
Unfortunately, I don’t see this hate dying out anytime soon.
The younger generation of Armenians for sure are just as hateful of the Azeris (yes even the people) from the conversations I have had. I don’t know any Azeris, but I would guess the trend is the same.

[It’s so Joever]

Useful reminder that there is a logical and relatively 'fair' solution to this long-term Question, of course.

Which is?

[Lord Halifax]

Useful reminder that there is a logical and relatively 'fair' solution to this long-term Question, of course.

Which is?

Armenia keeps Nagorno-Karabakh proper (the former Autonomous Oblast), but hands all other occupied territories back to Azerbaijan.

[It’s so Joever]

Useful reminder that there is a logical and relatively 'fair' solution to this long-term Question, of course.

Which is?

Armenia keeps Nagorno-Karabakh proper (the former Autonomous Oblast), but hands all other occupied territories back to Azerbaijan.

In my non-professional opinion, it’s highly doubtful that would last as a solution for very long.
Even if it makes sense from a non-biased standpoint, it simply won’t stop the long lasting hatred running in the region.
They will still find something bull**it to fight over, such as some land which “my great Armenian/Azeri ancestors lived in for centuries before the evil other side took it!”
Not to mention that the sizable minorities in some of these areas still will be a real problem in the future.
I guess what I’m trying to say is that it’s not just about the land. It’s far more abstract and any concrete “solution” offered by bystanders is only temporary.

Also I have my questions as to whether either side would really agree with such a solution without some force/negative incentive.

I’m still young so maybe I am completely wrong, but that’s just how I see it.

[Hnv1]

in a bizarre event, it kicked off yesterday on a highway in Israel with Azer and Armenian expats clashing in a mass brawl. Looked like Chelsea away in the late 80's...

[urutzizu]

Armenian front lines in the South collapsing as I post this, Azeris captured Hadrut (large symbolic importance for Armenia) and Füzuli in the last couple of days and then took most of the Border to Iran and made vast gains in Hadrut Province, with little resistance. Azeri Sources claim they have reached the outskirts of the de facto capital of Karabakh Shusha/Shushi, however that is unable to be verified yet, but what is clear is that the Azeris have made very large gains in a very short period of time. The Situation is looking very bad for the Armenians at this stage. All Areas captured by the Azeri Armed Forces are ghost towns/completely deserted of the Armenian inhabitants, as the Armenians are evacuating everything. So effectively ethnic cleansing taking place in Europe, even if it is done out of fear/precaution and not by the Azeris directly. The mood in Azerbaijan is ecstatic over the last few days.

[Lord Halifax]

So effectively ethnic cleansing taking place in Europe, even if it is done out of fear/precaution and not by the Azeris directly. The mood in Azerbaijan is ecstatic over the last few days.

Nah, it's in Asia. The entire region is south of the watershed of the Greater Caucasus (hence the term Transcaucasia), which forms the border between Europe and Asia.

Ciscaucasia = Europe
Transcaucasia = Asia

[CumbrianLefty]

Geographically, it is best described as Asia. Politically and culturally, its a bit murkier.

[It’s so Joever]

Armenian front lines in the South collapsing as I post this, Azeris captured Hadrut (large symbolic importance for Armenia) and Füzuli in the last couple of days and then took most of the Border to Iran and made vast gains in Hadrut Province, with little resistance. Azeri Sources claim they have reached the outskirts of the de facto capital of Karabakh Shusha/Shushi, however that is unable to be verified yet, but what is clear is that the Azeris have made very large gains in a very short period of time. The Situation is looking very bad for the Armenians at this stage. All Areas captured by the Azeri Armed Forces are ghost towns/completely deserted of the Armenian inhabitants, as the Armenians are evacuating everything. So effectively ethnic cleansing taking place in Europe, even if it is done out of fear/precaution and not by the Azeris directly. The mood in Azerbaijan is ecstatic over the last few days.

True, although Azeris have been fleeing from the area for years. Look at the changes in demographics over the few decades.
Both sides are ethnic cleansers by that definition.
It’s a shame neither side really wants to reach a logical negotiation.
And of course, Azeris cheering this insanity on is sickening, but not unexpected.

[It’s so Joever]

Geographically, it is best described as Asia. Politically and culturally, its a bit murkier.

This is why we should get rid of the idea of Europe’s as a continent.
Screw it, it’s just an extension of Asia.

[Omega21]

Geographically, it is best described as Asia. Politically and culturally, its a bit murkier.

This is why we should get rid of the idea of Europe’s as a continent.
Screw it, it’s just an extension of Asia.

Lol... Peak 2020 woke opinion right there

I'm assuming that by "we",  you mean the US should declare Europe non-existent as a continent unilaterally. Can't say I'm surprised by the opinion.

Anyway, hope the right side, i.e. Armenians, manage to hold most of the former autonomous region in the end. Both sides hands are bloody, but Azerbaijan is more to blame for this.

[It’s so Joever]

Geographically, it is best described as Asia. Politically and culturally, its a bit murkier.

This is why we should get rid of the idea of Europe’s as a continent.
Screw it, it’s just an extension of Asia.

Lol... Peak 2020 woke opinion right there

I'm assuming that by "we",  you mean the US should declare Europe non-existent as a continent unilaterally. Can't say I'm surprised by the opinion.

Anyway, hope the right side, i.e. Armenians, manage to hold most of the former autonomous region in the end. Both sides hands are bloody, but Azerbaijan is more to blame for this.

Lol, imagine thinking there is a “right” side in this conflict.
Yes Nagorno-Karabakh proper is majority ethnically Armenian, but the total occupied region includes many Azeris as well. Plus, Azeris fled the land causing an massive change recently. Additionally, the land is legally Azerbaijani. That’s not a defense of the Azerbaijani belligerence this year, nor does it justify the current conflict, but to assume there is a right side is actually hilarious. It’s like thinking there is a right side in the Russia-Ukraine conflict (there isn’t by objective standards)
If you want your country to support Armenia for geopolitical reasons and are just trying to justify such by pretending there is a moral absolute here, go ahead.

Also yes, Europe is just an extension of Asia. And it’s not out of wokeness, there is definitely a solid argument to be made.

[Omega21]

Geographically, it is best described as Asia. Politically and culturally, its a bit murkier.

This is why we should get rid of the idea of Europe’s as a continent.
Screw it, it’s just an extension of Asia.

Lol... Peak 2020 woke opinion right there

I'm assuming that by "we",  you mean the US should declare Europe non-existent as a continent unilaterally. Can't say I'm surprised by the opinion.

Anyway, hope the right side, i.e. Armenians, manage to hold most of the former autonomous region in the end. Both sides hands are bloody, but Azerbaijan is more to blame for this.

Lol, imagine thinking there is a “right” side in this conflict.
Yes Nagorno-Karabakh proper is majority ethnically Armenian, but the total occupied region includes many Azeris as well. Plus, Azeris fled the land causing an massive change recently. Additionally, the land is legally Azerbaijani. That’s not a defense of the Azerbaijani belligerence this year, nor does it justify the current conflict, but to assume there is a right side is actually hilarious. It’s like thinking there is a right side in the Russia-Ukraine conflict (there isn’t by objective standards)
If you want your country to support Armenia for geopolitical reasons and are just trying to justify such by pretending there is a moral absolute here, go ahead.

Also yes, Europe is just an extension of Asia. And it’s not out of wokeness, there is definitely a solid argument to be made.

Yeah, sure, if we don't consider any aspects other than modern geography.

Imagine saying yeah I'm going to the Parthenon, you know that temple in Greece. Oh really, where's that? Ya know, western Asia lol

Whether you like it or not, Europe is the birthplace of the majority of things, raging from political ideas such as democracy all the way to medicine, that shape the developed modern world we have today.

And ignoring every other cultural aspect and calling it Asia is just absurd.

But yeah, I don't imagine you would actually consider the opinions of actual people living on the continent before saying "we" should erase it out or existence.

And as I saud, both sides have bloody hands, but ones are bloodier than the other. And I specifically said I hope they keep the autonomous region, or in Russian and other Slavic languages, Oblast, that is and was majority Armenian by a wide margin, not all occupied areas.

America ran concentration camps for Japanese Americans, and is still on the right side or WW2 in a broad context.

[It’s so Joever]

Geographically, it is best described as Asia. Politically and culturally, its a bit murkier.

This is why we should get rid of the idea of Europe’s as a continent.
Screw it, it’s just an extension of Asia.

Lol... Peak 2020 woke opinion right there

I'm assuming that by "we",  you mean the US should declare Europe non-existent as a continent unilaterally. Can't say I'm surprised by the opinion.

Anyway, hope the right side, i.e. Armenians, manage to hold most of the former autonomous region in the end. Both sides hands are bloody, but Azerbaijan is more to blame for this.

Lol, imagine thinking there is a “right” side in this conflict.
Yes Nagorno-Karabakh proper is majority ethnically Armenian, but the total occupied region includes many Azeris as well. Plus, Azeris fled the land causing an massive change recently. Additionally, the land is legally Azerbaijani. That’s not a defense of the Azerbaijani belligerence this year, nor does it justify the current conflict, but to assume there is a right side is actually hilarious. It’s like thinking there is a right side in the Russia-Ukraine conflict (there isn’t by objective standards)
If you want your country to support Armenia for geopolitical reasons and are just trying to justify such by pretending there is a moral absolute here, go ahead.

Also yes, Europe is just an extension of Asia. And it’s not out of wokeness, there is definitely a solid argument to be made.

Yeah, sure, if we don't consider any aspects other than modern geography.

Imagine saying yeah I'm going to the Parthenon, you know that temple in Greece. Oh really, where's that? Ya know, western Asia lol

Whether you like it or not, Europe is the birthplace of the majority of things, raging from political ideas such as democracy all the way to medicine, that shape the developed modern world we have today.

And ignoring every other cultural aspect and calling it Asia is just absurd.

But yeah, I don't imagine you would actually consider the opinions of actual people living on the continent before saying "we" should erase it out or existence.

And as I saud, both sides have bloody hands, but ones are bloodier than the other. And I specifically said I hope they keep the autonomous region, or in Russian and other Slavic languages, Oblast, that is and was majority Armenian by a wide margin, not all occupied areas.

America ran concentration camps for Japanese Americans, and is still on the right side or WW2 in a broad context.

Correction: Most advances in human history came from Eurasia.
As for you second point, could you explain why Armenia is objectively better in this circumstance when compared to Azerbaijan?
What is your reasoning?