Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A case of 'certain defeat' meeting 'not wishing to consume more than can be safely digested' - or perhaps 'realising the implications to carefully built international friendships of actually going through with full-bore ethnic cleansing'.

It's worth pointing out that the Azeri military is still basically rubbish, but they've been able to buy their way to dominance through new technology and various forms of foreign assistance. While the Armenian military was never really that great: well motivated, certainly, but badly drilled and reliant on old Soviet equipment (now largely destroyed) and old Soviet tactics. The latter has done them in completely this time. The tiny scale of the area fought over is also important here, at least as regards the impact of drones: an area the size of Yorkshire, with N-K proper being only a little larger than Shropshire.

[CumbrianLefty]

A lot of Armenians not taking the news too well it would seem.

[WMS]

Looking at the terms of the peace agreement...it doesn’t seem that bad overall. Azerbaijan gets most of its territory back - seriously did anyone think THAT wasn’t going to be part of the deal? - plus the areas it won in fighting, and a nifty new connection to its exclave. Artsakh gets to survive, for now, although reduced a bit in the N-K region proper and having lost all the areas they and Armenia conquered from Azerbaijan back in the 1990s except for the Lachin connection with Armenia. I’m certain the Azeris will show lots of footage of returning Azeri and Kurdish refugees who were themselves ethnically cleansed by the Armenians back then to counter charges that they’re themselves engaged in such actions. Russians and Turks on the ground as peacekeepers.

It could’ve been much worse for the Armenians. The future will doubtless see more problems in the area but I don’t know what the Armenian protestors think the current Armenian government could’ve done differently.

[PSOL]

So there’s both protests and a coup according to varied political discords. This doesn’t seem good.

[WMS]

Do the Armenian nationalists actually think they can defeat Azerbaijan and Turkey without Russian support?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

So I'm most curious how this affects Pashinyan who, last I was aware, was very popular. Protesters are calling on him to resign. This IMO leads in a few possible directions: (1) the old guard of the HKK comes back (they have been decimated) and endangers democratization; (2) some new force perhaps unseats Pashinyan and endangers democratization; (3) this shatters the Velvet consensus and allows for a greater degree of pluralism (albeit with the undesirable possibility of heavy polarization as in Georgia).

[palandio]

Am I the only one who sees parallels between Armenia 2020 and Azerbaijan 1992-1994 (and many other countries when they are losing wars)? A bad situation on the front, a public opinion unable to accept making concessions, governments stumbling over their inability to deliver victories, internal unrest?

[CumbrianLefty]

Do the Armenian nationalists actually think they can defeat Azerbaijan and Turkey without Russian support?

We have seen enough times that nationalism is one helluva drug.

[Хahar 🤔]

Stock prices in Anglo-Asian Mining, a majority of which is owned by the government of Azerbaijan, have increased significantly since the announcement of the peace accord, motivated by the potential for resource extraction in the territories to be returned. Approximately ten percent of the company is owned by none other than John Sununu.

[Angel of Death]

There are reports of an attempted coup and an assassination attempt against Pashinyan.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Pride goes before the fall.

[StateBoiler]

Adam Schiff has called for U.S. recognition of Artsakh. Extremely boneheaded and premature move, I think.

https://twitter.com/RepAdamSchiff/status/1319723293973368832

Armenians over here pour a ton of money into Democratic campaigns. They've gotten some Democrat-majority state legislatures to approve resolutions regarding their Azeri conflict and the Turkish genocide, which I'm not a fan of because all foreign policy stuff should be at a federal level (the resolutions are meaningless, but state legislatures should not even do symbolic foreign policy stuff).


Anyway, what do the new borders look like?

[StateBoiler]

I agree with most of it, but I think you overstate the extent of Russia's role on the Armenia's side. If anything, it has been surprising how unwilling relatively Russia has been to intervene on behalf of Armenia.

It's interesting to compare the statements of Russia and various western Countries during the Crisis:

The situation of losing a significant part of Azerbaijani territory cannot be sustained forever

It is deeply regrettable that the hostilities continue, but they are not taking place on Armenian territory. [Russia's obligations under the CSTO] do not extend to Karabakh.

We’re hopeful that the Armenians will be able to defend against what the Azerbaijanis are doing,

It was determined that the attacks on Sunday came from Azerbaijan, Both sides must comply with the cease-fire. (..) I have noticed the political statements made by Turkey [in favour of Azerbaijan], which I find to be inconsiderate and risky. France is concerned by the warlike messages from Turkey which is in favor of Azerbaijan's reconquering Nagorno-Karabakh. And that we won't accept it, (he added, not mentioning that the region is internationally recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan)

We receive signals from Armenia to be ready for the talks, but not from Azerbaijan. If Baku continues its position to reject the ceasefire, we must ask ourselves to what extent we can remain neutral towards the parties.

They haven't said so officially, but Russia sees their Interests long term served better as part of closer relations with Turkey and the strengthening of the Moscow-Teheran-Ankara Axis, and that is a only logical choice (and you are seeing similar Movement in Iran with many high profile Clerics and other figures (Yadollah Javani, Ali Akbar Velayati, Naser Makarem Shirazi...) siding with "Muslim Azerbaijan". And Pashinyan, in typical populist fashion (Saakashvili, Elchibey..) failed to understand or was ignorant of the changing regional situation and failed to compromise with Azerbaijan. Aliyev, whilst, yes, a dictator of a corrupt petrostate, understands from a personal perspective how geopolitics works, resisted intense internal pressure and bided his time until Azerbaijan was ready to act. And hence all the takes by Western Observers before September about how the Azeri Army was a incompetent, corrupt Organisation with no morale and doomed to fail against the superior Armenian defence fell apart in spectacular fashion.

It infuriates me how many democratically-elected leaders globally completely fail at understanding geopolitics. It's a phase of power where "the strongmen" of the world completely outshine them. The last three U.S. presidents I believe have not really understood geopolitics. Failing at understanding geopolitics is a cardinal sin in my opinion. If you don't understand it, you have no business running your country.

[Karpatsky]

Adam Schiff has called for U.S. recognition of Artsakh. Extremely boneheaded and premature move, I think.

Armenians over here pour a ton of money into Democratic campaigns. They've gotten some Democrat-majority state legislatures to approve resolutions regarding their Azeri conflict and the Turkish genocide, which I'm not a fan of because all foreign policy stuff should be at a federal level (the resolutions are meaningless, but state legislatures should not even do symbolic foreign policy stuff).


Anyway, what do the new borders look like?

Azerbaijan will occupy all the green areas. Yellow will be de facto Artsakh, and Russian peacekeepers will be deployed all around the new de facto border line.

[StateBoiler]

Adam Schiff has called for U.S. recognition of Artsakh. Extremely boneheaded and premature move, I think.

Armenians over here pour a ton of money into Democratic campaigns. They've gotten some Democrat-majority state legislatures to approve resolutions regarding their Azeri conflict and the Turkish genocide, which I'm not a fan of because all foreign policy stuff should be at a federal level (the resolutions are meaningless, but state legislatures should not even do symbolic foreign policy stuff).


Anyway, what do the new borders look like?

Azerbaijan will occupy all the green areas. Yellow will be de facto Artsakh, and Russian peacekeepers will be deployed all around the new de facto border line.

So in effect Artsakh territory has been chopped by more than half and they've lost their land border with Iran.

[Dereich]

So in effect Artsakh territory has been chopped by more than half and they've lost their land border with Iran.

Azerbaijan is also going to get some kind of land transport connection with Nakhchivan through Armenia proper guarded by the Russians.

[Crumpets]

Susan Collins recognition of Artsakh imminent?

https://twitter.com/Kornelij/status/1331610084615610368

[StateBoiler]

Susan Collins recognition of Artsakh imminent?

https://twitter.com/Kornelij/status/1331610084615610368

Did Armenian-American groups give her campaign a ton of money?

[Crumpets]

Susan Collins recognition of Artsakh imminent?

https://twitter.com/Kornelij/status/1331610084615610368

Did Armenian-American groups give her campaign a ton of money?

Nah, I'm just making a joke that she's always "deeply concerned." If anyone in congress is going to recognize Artsakh, it's Adam Schiff.

[Storr]

This feels relevant to the aftermath of the last year's war: Armenia is claiming two soldiers, including one officer, were killed on the 16th in Armenian territory near the Azeri exclave of Nakhchivan. Armenia is also claiming their forces killed one Azeri soldier, a day earlier on the 15th, while fighting off Azeri units that allegedly entered Armenian territory. Notably, this area is on the opposite side of Armenia's Syunik Province from the rest of Azerbaijan (where all fighting occurred in 2020) and the  Lacin corridor which is under control of Russian "peacekeepers". As it usually goes in protracted post-Soviet conflicts, both countries are blaming each other for provoking the clashes which lead to the deaths.

https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-azerbaijan-shooting-karabakh/31412867.html

[Gass3268]

Looks like Azerbaijan is going to take advantage of a distracted Russia.

https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/1507808381511389185?s=20&t=eX1Ssk26q...

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Looks like Azerbaijan is going to take advantage of a distracted Russia.

https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/1507808381511389185?s=20&t=eX1Ssk26q...

Entirely unsurprised. There've been rumbkings for a few weeks; I'm not super up to date, but gas was cut off to NK recently and locals think the Azeri forces installed a valve in the pipeline, allowing for arbitrary and immediate future cutoffs.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like Azerbaijan is going to take advantage of a distracted Russia.

https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/1507808381511389185?s=20&t=eX1Ssk26q...

Entirely unsurprised. There've been rumbkings for a few weeks; I'm not super up to date, but gas was cut off to NK recently and locals think the Azeri forces installed a valve in the pipeline, allowing for arbitrary and immediate future cutoffs.

Would be completely unsurprised if this happened, and the locals are likely completely right. The Azeris, from a purely power-minded POV, would be dumb to not press their position right now anyway.

[CumbrianLefty]

Who could ever have foreseen, etc etc.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://twitter.com/AliTahmizian/status/1507838457984524291?s=20&t=rf7o8ETve...