Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[Lord Halifax]

Armenia has just invoked CSTO’s self-defence clause:

https://www.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570042320363589634
It claims Azerbaijan now occupies its territory (presumably, not just Artsakh).

This is a win-win: helps Armenia, and hopefully diverts some Russian troops from Ukraine too.

It’s a win-win if Russia actually sends troops. They aren’t likely to yet, in my view. The borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are not strictly charted in law, allowing Russia to weasel out of article 4 until Azerbaijan starts taking major settlements in Armenia proper.

Edit: if Russia does nothing then, CSTO will lose a lot of credibility, but I think Russia is willing to make that sacrifice for the sake of its war in Ukraine.

If Russia does nothing than CSTO probably collapsed like the League of Nations.

If Russia does nothing than it is proven to be a worthless ally.

And yeah Russia seems to have totally destroyed its credibility this year, even with its allies. It's turning itself into a pariah state.

This conflict only started because Russia's losses in Ukraine showed some people that they were weak and now is the time to strike.

But if Azerbaijan makes a lot of gains, I expect Iran to invade Azerbaijan and overthrow the regime, which would anger Turkey.

Iran would have trouble doing that. Firstly, the Azerbaijani military is very well equipped, and would get further supplied by Turkey and Israel. Secondly, there are tons of Azeris in Iran who won't be happy and will keep the Iranians occupied...

The US would come to Aliyev's aid too in that scenario.

Aliyev isn't particularly popular with Iranian Azeris. On the contrary many (likely most) of them see Azerbaijan as a renegade territory that should rejoin "the Iranian motherland", from which it was unjustly separated as a result of the Russo-Persian wars in the early 19th century.

[Crumpets]

The degree of worry on the ground is greater than yesterday, but I was also at different job sites each day so it is hard to compare.

Cathcon, I'm curious since I know you and I have similar academic/professional backgrounds - I've always found as a non-Armenian American that Armenia is a particularly hard country to "grasp" as an outsider, and that this conflict in particular is one whose debates and discussions are very insular to the Armenian and Azeri communities. Like, it's pretty common to meet non-Georgian scholars of Georgia and non-Chechen scholars of Chechnya, but basically everyone I know who studies Armenia has some personal connection to the country, either through family or marriage. As far as I know, you don't, but I could be wrong. How did you come to be involved with Armenia and do you feel like you've broken through that bubble, or do you still feel very much like a relatively uninformed outside observer who just happens to have a good view of the situation?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

The degree of worry on the ground is greater than yesterday, but I was also at different job sites each day so it is hard to compare.

Cathcon, I'm curious since I know you and I have similar academic/professional backgrounds - I've always found as a non-Armenian American that Armenia is a particularly hard country to "grasp" as an outsider, and that this conflict in particular is one whose debates and discussions are very insular to the Armenian and Azeri communities. Like, it's pretty common to meet non-Georgian scholars of Georgia and non-Chechen scholars of Chechnya, but basically everyone I know who studies Armenia has some personal connection to the country, either through family or marriage. As far as I know, you don't, but I could be wrong. How did you come to be involved with Armenia and do you feel like you've broken through that bubble, or do you still feel very much like a relatively uninformed outside observer who just happens to have a good view of the situation?

I can't speak to any particular longing in my soul beyond a process of elimination and a reaction to events as they occurred. I wanted to study the former Warsaw Pact because it was "cool". I narrowed down to the former USSR because that was efficient in terms of comparison and reading. I further focused on the South Caucasus and Central Asia because as an American with few real "IR" contacts they seemed the least explored--and because, unlike the Baltics, it felt there was still a story to watch unfold. (I am also bigoted against countries that are non-mountainous or too humid--I'm already from Michigan!) Armenia's 2018 Velvet Revolution made it a fascinating case study, though within the usual Color Revolution framework something I still don't quite understand. I am here specifically because I got bored with my actual career (and failed in an attempt to enter a new PhD program out of state), searched "volunteer in [post-Soviet country]", and found a very reputable option in Armenia, which along with Georgia was in my top two preferences.

As for trying to "grasp" Armenia, I don't quite think I'm there, but I also don't really intuit what that phrase means (autism alert). I suppose one example of real disconnect would be my complete incomprehension of the rather unproductive workday here--interrupted by multiple coffee breaks and the like--but I ascribe that to a stereotype of non-Protestant culture. (And, ftr, I do tend to get singled out as the volunteer with no real "reason"--ethnicity--to be here) The conflict, however, makes fairly straightforward sense to me in a way that makes me uncomfortable when people express confusion. I try to convey these types of topics to my fellow First Worlders by way of a sort of shorthand based on self- or national-interest and examples from US politics they can hopefully relate to, but I get the impression that this still falls somewhat short. Am I just miming comprehension? Who knows.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

And ftr a US-based friend of mine advised my scrambling an exit plan. He is famously pessimistic, and going all-out would obviously be premature, but I've started carrying more cash with me, though most of it is drams.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

There are protests at parliament! I get it, but somewhat mystifying, since hypothetically these people could all be put to better use.

[Storr]

There are protests at parliament! I get it, but somewhat mystifying, since hypothetically these people could all be put to better use.

video:

https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1570108093362479106?s=20&t=7tdUIIg28X...

[TDAS04]

The hatred the Azeris have towards the Armenians is intense and horrifying.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1569856731274149888?s=20&t=s9uSP6LggGwJ4g...

[Crumpets]

There are protests at parliament! I get it, but somewhat mystifying, since hypothetically these people could all be put to better use.

I heard on Twitter it was because Pashinyan said something to the effect of "I am only open to a negotiated peace agreement with Aliyev if it has robust and trustworthy security guarantees for Armenia" and this got spun in some media as "Pashinyan open to peace agreement with Aliyev!" But at this point, it's pretty much a game of telephone regardless and hard to say what the demonstrators are protesting for or against.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

There are protests at parliament! I get it, but somewhat mystifying, since hypothetically these people could all be put to better use.

I heard on Twitter it was because Pashinyan said something to the effect of "I am only open to a negotiated peace agreement with Aliyev if it has robust and trustworthy security guarantees for Armenia" and this got spun in some media as "Pashinyan open to peace agreement with Aliyev!" But at this point, it's pretty much a game of telephone regardless and hard to say what the demonstrators are protesting for or against.

Leaving parliament now. Couldn't understand a word but terrifying stuff.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There are protests at parliament! I get it, but somewhat mystifying, since hypothetically these people could all be put to better use.

I heard on Twitter it was because Pashinyan said something to the effect of "I am only open to a negotiated peace agreement with Aliyev if it has robust and trustworthy security guarantees for Armenia" and this got spun in some media as "Pashinyan open to peace agreement with Aliyev!" But at this point, it's pretty much a game of telephone regardless and hard to say what the demonstrators are protesting for or against.

How have Russian-language media been covering this? Would they have a more accurate take on it?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Please stay safe, Cathcon. Keeping you and the Armenian people in my thoughts. No one deserves to go through this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wait, you're out there right now? Stay safe indeed. Jesus.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Wait, you're out there right now? Stay safe indeed. Jesus.

Only went for a few minutes as part of my duties as observer of history. Trust me, I'm in no mood for tear gas on a work night.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://t.me/sputnik/13139

On phone so won't transcribe. You can read the caption.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://t.me/sputnik/13139

On phone so won't transcribe. You can read the caption.

Thanks for bringing this to us. I trust that you can stay safe.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Thanks guys, I am back at my host family's apartment.

In other news, I guess some clownd really want Kocharyan back.
https://t.me/sputnik/13140
There have been rumblings of a Kocharyan or Sargsyan return since the 2021 election, but they failed spectacularly at the polls and their protests have so far failed.

[Coldstream]

It’s genuinely appalling the lack of coverage this has gotten compared to the slightest discontent between Israel-Palestine.

[Aurelius]

Wait, you're out there right now? Stay safe indeed. Jesus.

Only went for a few minutes as part of my duties as observer of history. Trust me, I'm in no mood for tear gas on a work night.

Please be careful. I can easily see things turning ugly if it's realized that there's an American at this kind of protest.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s genuinely appalling the lack of coverage this has gotten compared to the slightest discontent between Israel-Palestine.

Well, at least you can count on Adam Schiff talking about this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/ALavrina/status/1570088233614315529?cxt=HHwWksDQ6cC7icorAAAA
It seems Kazakhstan is seeking to signal neutrality (though this is, it must be noted, a pro-Azeri talking point in practice).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/ALavrina/status/1570088233614315529?cxt=HHwWksDQ6cC7icorAAAA
It seems Kazakhstan is seeking to signal neutrality (though this is, it must be noted, a pro-Azeri talking point in practice).

A kick in the teeth for Armenia, who helped Tokayev when he activated Article 4 to clamp down on protesters.

[Aurelius]

It’s genuinely appalling the lack of coverage this has gotten compared to the slightest discontent between Israel-Palestine.

Well, at least you can count on Adam Schiff talking about this.

I wonder how long it'll take until we start hearing the natsec ghouls say it's okay for Azerbaijan to ethnically cleanse Armenians because Russia and Armenia are allies.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s genuinely appalling the lack of coverage this has gotten compared to the slightest discontent between Israel-Palestine.

Well, at least you can count on Adam Schiff talking about this.

I wonder how long it'll take until we start hearing the natsec ghouls say it's okay for Azerbaijan to ethnically cleanse Armenians because Russia and Armenia are allies.

I'm not sure if that would ever be kosher to word it that way. But iterations of both sides-ism would be almost guaranteed, especially since both sides have a history of ethnically cleansing each other. The true answer ought to be "neither side should ethnically cleanse", but sadly politics makes that complicated to put in place and we'd need to bridge differences with situational opponents to produce a framework to guarantee that. One should hope such an arrangement is possible. I'm not getting my hopes up too much though.

Given the Azeris are very well connected, they are likely to be stridently intransigent on this, and confidently so.

[Cashew]

It’s genuinely appalling the lack of coverage this has gotten compared to the slightest discontent between Israel-Palestine.

Well, at least you can count on Adam Schiff talking about this.

I wonder how long it'll take until we start hearing the natsec ghouls say it's okay for Azerbaijan to ethnically cleanse Armenians because Russia and Armenia are allies.

I'm seeing plenty of people saying it Armenia's fault for making a poor choice of allies, as if cutting ties with Russia would have caused the west favor them over Turkey and Azerbaijan. Then you also have the clowns who insist that Armenia needs to "accept reality" and improve relations with the country that still denies their genocide and the ethnonationist regime to their east, as if they would have been willing to do the same had they been in Armenia's position.