Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia
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Author Topic: Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia  (Read 12660 times)
PSOL
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« on: September 27, 2020, 08:30:49 PM »
« edited: November 14, 2020, 06:47:53 PM by PSOL »

Because now there’s an actual war going on. First conflict starting in this pandemic.
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AndyHogan14
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2020, 09:46:42 PM »

I had no idea that tensions had flared back up until I saw this. Hopefully cooler heads prevail. I am, however, worried that if this thing does devolves into a full scale war, and Azerbaijan gets the upper hand and pushes into Nagorno-Karabakh, we could see a massive humanitarian crisis with the expulsion of the Armenian population there.
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PSOL
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2020, 10:21:53 PM »

I had no idea that tensions had flared back up until I saw this. Hopefully cooler heads prevail. I am, however, worried that if this thing does devolves into a full scale war, and Azerbaijan gets the upper hand and pushes into Nagorno-Karabakh, we could see a massive humanitarian crisis with the expulsion of the Armenian population there.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2020, 01:05:34 AM »

America should stand with the people of Armenia, one of the world’s oldest Christian nations and a survivor of persecution and genocide, against the corrupt petrostate of Azerbaijan.
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2020, 01:09:16 AM »

Stand strong Armenia. An extremely corrupt and repressive regime waging unorovoked aggression against a persecuted minority it's attempted ethnic cleansing agsinst is never good and sure not what the world needs now.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2020, 01:09:42 AM »

America should stand with the people of Armenia, one of the world’s oldest Christian nations and a survivor of persecution and genocide, against the corrupt petrostate of Azerbaijan.

Why should it matter that Armenia is "one of the world's oldest Christian nations"?
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swf541
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2020, 01:27:09 AM »

America should stand with the people of Armenia, one of the world’s oldest Christian nations and a survivor of persecution and genocide, against the corrupt petrostate of Azerbaijan.

Why should it matter that Armenia is "one of the world's oldest Christian nations"?

Because the aggressor nations are attempting to genocide them for that specific reason.
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TheTide
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2020, 03:26:03 AM »

America should stand with the people of Armenia, one of the world’s oldest Christian nations and a survivor of persecution and genocide, against the corrupt petrostate of Azerbaijan.

Why should it matter that Armenia is "one of the world's oldest Christian nations"?

Because the aggressor nations are attempting to genocide them for that specific reason.

Genocide of any kind for any reason of pretty bad.
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jfern
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2020, 03:35:43 AM »

America should stand with the people of Armenia, one of the world’s oldest Christian nations and a survivor of persecution and genocide, against the corrupt petrostate of Azerbaijan.

The argument against that is but Russia.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2020, 04:45:01 AM »

The extent of Russian support for Armenia is greatly overstated anyway, from what it used to be in the 90's, it has changed as Turkey is no longer a pro-western and anti-russian power, and the Conflict has in large part been shifted into a proxy conflict of support/opposition to Turkish influence.
Russia *slightly* favors Armenia, but they are mainly interested in the status quo, and is not an anti-Turkish actor, quite the opposite. They are also Azerbaijan's second biggest supplier, and are effectively playing both sides.

Hence the neocon cold-war battlelines of "Assad/Russia/Iran supported Armenia" vs. "pro-western Azerbaijan" are false. Rather in geopolitical orders it is:

Armenia: Greece, UAE, France, Syria, Cyprus, Egypt, India, Saudis
Azerbaijan: Turkey, Qatar, Libya, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Israel (despite being anti-Turkey)

However support for Armenia is chiefly for opportunistic reasons (anti-Turkey) and/or due to internal pressures from the Armenian diaspora (esp. France), whereas support for Azerbaijan from the Turkic countries is generally sincere, stronger and from more geographically relevant players. Hence why every single of these clashes ends up with the Armenians being pushed back further and further bit by bit, with Azerbaijan slowly expanding into Karabakh within what Russia and Turkey permit without spiraling into a major escalation. The situation is somewhat reminiscent of the Serbian Krajina from 1992-1995 in Croatia, and similarly a eventual retake of the Area and a expulsion of the Armenian population is likely.
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jaichind
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2020, 05:37:35 AM »

What is Iran's position this time around?  I assume they are still biased toward Armenia given historical conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan
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Saruku
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« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2020, 07:43:52 AM »

America should stand with the people of Armenia, one of the world’s oldest Christian nations and a survivor of persecution and genocide, against the corrupt petrostate of Azerbaijan.
America loves corrupt petrostates.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2020, 09:22:44 AM »

People trying to make this into a religious war are the absolute worst. From whichever side.
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Nathan
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« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2020, 09:29:19 AM »

Is there any concern that Armenia might ethnically cleanse Azeris if it gains the upper hand or is Azerbaijan the only combatant with genocidal intent?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2020, 10:12:56 AM »

Is there any concern that Armenia might ethnically cleanse Azeris if it gains the upper hand or is Azerbaijan the only combatant with genocidal intent?

There aren't really any Azeris left in areas the Armenians claim (that genocide happened in the 90s). I don't think Armenia is interested in pushing further into Azerbaijan than they already controlled pre-conflict, except possibly Nakhchivan.
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« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2020, 11:03:12 AM »

So maybe this is more part of the below-the-radar dialogue rather than anything in the news, but do we have any specific source prompting other posters' use of the word "genocide" in this conflict? Or is it more the implication of what would happen if Azerbaijan recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh? Additionally, I see one poster attributing the desire for genocide to enmity towards Christianity. Is that really true? Though religious language has probably helped to further define the sides, I don't know that this differs from any other ethnic conflict regardless of faith. In that vein, this would strike me as even more out-there than the claim that the Yugoslav Wars were the first "religious war" of the post-1991 world. Armenian and Azeri ethnic differences are far stronger than in Yugoslavia, as Azeris are Turkic whereas Armenians are distinct from all major ethnic groupings, and I daresay that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would have ignited regardless of who was what religion.

As for whose fault this is and all that, let's try to get the timeline cleared up. Per Armenian claims (via BBC), the first move was made by Azerbaijan, which shelled civilian settlements on Sunday morning (27 September 2020), resulting in military and civilian casualties. Azerbaijani authorities in turn have attributed five civilian deaths to the Armenians. Martial law and military mobilization appear to have first been declared by Armenia then by Azerbaijan, with the latter declaring mobilization on today, Monday 28 September 2020 (per CNN). There are those that seem to believe that Armenia has no reason to start a war, and that seems correct to me, given that the objective for both sides is under Armenia suzerainty and has been for decades, so that would presumably point more towards Azerbaijan as the instigator.

@PSOL I'm trying to find more on there being a declaration of war, but everything that comes up is from yesterday and seems related to the aforementioned martial law/mobilization rather than a separate act.

Interestingly or not, Mikheil Saakashvili has apparently sided with Azerbaijan. Unsurprising, as Georgia's fuel dependence on Azerbaijan has determined a generally friendly relationship between the two since 1991, whereas Armenia probably has little that Georgia values. Additionally, one can see a congruence of interests in both countries opposing ethnic breakaway regions in parts of what would otherwise be each nation's "sovereign territory".
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Sol
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« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2020, 11:28:52 AM »

So maybe this is more part of the below-the-radar dialogue rather than anything in the news, but do we have any specific source prompting other posters' use of the word "genocide" in this conflict? Or is it more the implication of what would happen if Azerbaijan recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh? Additionally, I see one poster attributing the desire for genocide to enmity towards Christianity. Is that really true? Though religious language has probably helped to further define the sides, I don't know that this differs from any other ethnic conflict regardless of faith. In that vein, this would strike me as even more out-there than the claim that the Yugoslav Wars were the first "religious war" of the post-1991 world. Armenian and Azeri ethnic differences are far stronger than in Yugoslavia, as Azeris are Turkic whereas Armenians are distinct from all major ethnic groupings, and I daresay that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would have ignited regardless of who was what religion.

As for whose fault this is and all that, let's try to get the timeline cleared up. Per Armenian claims (via BBC), the first move was made by Azerbaijan, which shelled civilian settlements on Sunday morning (27 September 2020), resulting in military and civilian casualties. Azerbaijani authorities in turn have attributed five civilian deaths to the Armenians. Martial law and military mobilization appear to have first been declared by Armenia then by Azerbaijan, with the latter declaring mobilization on today, Monday 28 September 2020 (per CNN). There are those that seem to believe that Armenia has no reason to start a war, and that seems correct to me, given that the objective for both sides is under Armenia suzerainty and has been for decades, so that would presumably point more towards Azerbaijan as the instigator.

@PSOL I'm trying to find more on there being a declaration of war, but everything that comes up is from yesterday and seems related to the aforementioned martial law/mobilization rather than a separate act.

Interestingly or not, Mikheil Saakashvili has apparently sided with Azerbaijan. Unsurprising, as Georgia's fuel dependence on Azerbaijan has determined a generally friendly relationship between the two since 1991, whereas Armenia probably has little that Georgia values. Additionally, one can see a congruence of interests in both countries opposing ethnic breakaway regions in parts of what would otherwise be each nation's "sovereign territory".

It is interesting though in that there is a large Armenian minority in Georgia.
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Logical
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« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2020, 12:08:49 PM »

This is going to be a conflict that flashes up every two years or so sadly. The Azeri government and its main supporter ,the Turks, needs something to distract their people from their corrupt undemocratic governments and their abysmal economic situation.
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palandio
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« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2020, 01:31:56 PM »

An important distinction that should be made is between Nagorno-Karabakh proper and the surrounding areas that are under control of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh, too.

Nagorno-Karabakh proper has been a majority Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan for a long time. The Azeri minority was ethnically cleansed in the 80s/90s (like the Armenian/Azeri minorities in mainland Azerbaijan/Armenia).

The area inbetween had been majority Azeri and Kurdish until it was conquered by the Armenians. It is now mostly depopulated with some Armenian Syrian refugees and displaced earthquake victims living here and there. To see the extent of the depopulation just take a look at satellite immages of e.g. the towns of Kalbajar or Zangilan with all the ruins.

Armenia/Artsakh has said in the past that it is ready to give back the areas inbetween (with the possible exception of the town of Lachin to make a road connection between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh), but not Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan on the other hand wants the whole area back.

For Russia/Putin Armenia is probably mostly a pawn. Under the right circumstances the guy would sell his own grandmother. On the other hand I doubt that he would be ready to give up on Artsakh just for nothing. Firstly keeping a frozen conflict is probably valuable for him. Secondly it is bad optics to let fall an ally. Thirdly it is a pawn in the greater regional conflict with Turkey.

The instigator of this is of course Erdogan (and Azerbaijan's leadership was happy to follow) who tries to imitate Putin and open up conflicts on the regional chessboard.
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Vosem
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« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2020, 02:02:50 PM »

So maybe this is more part of the below-the-radar dialogue rather than anything in the news, but do we have any specific source prompting other posters' use of the word "genocide" in this conflict? Or is it more the implication of what would happen if Azerbaijan recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh? Additionally, I see one poster attributing the desire for genocide to enmity towards Christianity. Is that really true? Though religious language has probably helped to further define the sides, I don't know that this differs from any other ethnic conflict regardless of faith. In that vein, this would strike me as even more out-there than the claim that the Yugoslav Wars were the first "religious war" of the post-1991 world. Armenian and Azeri ethnic differences are far stronger than in Yugoslavia, as Azeris are Turkic whereas Armenians are distinct from all major ethnic groupings, and I daresay that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would have ignited regardless of who was what religion.

As for whose fault this is and all that, let's try to get the timeline cleared up. Per Armenian claims (via BBC), the first move was made by Azerbaijan, which shelled civilian settlements on Sunday morning (27 September 2020), resulting in military and civilian casualties. Azerbaijani authorities in turn have attributed five civilian deaths to the Armenians. Martial law and military mobilization appear to have first been declared by Armenia then by Azerbaijan, with the latter declaring mobilization on today, Monday 28 September 2020 (per CNN). There are those that seem to believe that Armenia has no reason to start a war, and that seems correct to me, given that the objective for both sides is under Armenia suzerainty and has been for decades, so that would presumably point more towards Azerbaijan as the instigator.

@PSOL I'm trying to find more on there being a declaration of war, but everything that comes up is from yesterday and seems related to the aforementioned martial law/mobilization rather than a separate act.

Interestingly or not, Mikheil Saakashvili has apparently sided with Azerbaijan. Unsurprising, as Georgia's fuel dependence on Azerbaijan has determined a generally friendly relationship between the two since 1991, whereas Armenia probably has little that Georgia values. Additionally, one can see a congruence of interests in both countries opposing ethnic breakaway regions in parts of what would otherwise be each nation's "sovereign territory".

It is interesting though in that there is a large Armenian minority in Georgia.

Also has a large Azeri minority. The province of Javakheti in Georgia, on the Armenian border, is narrowly majority-Armenian, while the province of Kvemo Kartli on the Azeri border is uniformly Azeri along the southern border.

(In general, because of Stalin's influence, when the boundaries of the Transcaucasian Soviet Republicans were drawn up Georgia received very favorable lines, which has not necessarily worked out to its advantage in the post-1991 world).
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« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2020, 02:19:12 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2020, 02:52:33 PM by Cath »

Another reason for Georgia (and Ukraine-residing Misha specifically) to favor Azerbaijan would be Georgia's traditional Western orientation as opposed to Armenia's longstanding involvement with the Russian Federation.
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« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2020, 02:20:52 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2020, 04:17:51 PM by Cath »

So maybe this is more part of the below-the-radar dialogue rather than anything in the news, but do we have any specific source prompting other posters' use of the word "genocide" in this conflict? Or is it more the implication of what would happen if Azerbaijan recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh? Additionally, I see one poster attributing the desire for genocide to enmity towards Christianity. Is that really true? Though religious language has probably helped to further define the sides, I don't know that this differs from any other ethnic conflict regardless of faith. In that vein, this would strike me as even more out-there than the claim that the Yugoslav Wars were the first "religious war" of the post-1991 world. Armenian and Azeri ethnic differences are far stronger than in Yugoslavia, as Azeris are Turkic whereas Armenians are distinct from all major ethnic groupings, and I daresay that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would have ignited regardless of who was what religion.

As for whose fault this is and all that, let's try to get the timeline cleared up. Per Armenian claims (via BBC), the first move was made by Azerbaijan, which shelled civilian settlements on Sunday morning (27 September 2020), resulting in military and civilian casualties. Azerbaijani authorities in turn have attributed five civilian deaths to the Armenians. Martial law and military mobilization appear to have first been declared by Armenia then by Azerbaijan, with the latter declaring mobilization on today, Monday 28 September 2020 (per CNN). There are those that seem to believe that Armenia has no reason to start a war, and that seems correct to me, given that the objective for both sides is under Armenia suzerainty and has been for decades, so that would presumably point more towards Azerbaijan as the instigator.

@PSOL I'm trying to find more on there being a declaration of war, but everything that comes up is from yesterday and seems related to the aforementioned martial law/mobilization rather than a separate act.

Interestingly or not, Mikheil Saakashvili has apparently sided with Azerbaijan. Unsurprising, as Georgia's fuel dependence on Azerbaijan has determined a generally friendly relationship between the two since 1991, whereas Armenia probably has little that Georgia values. Additionally, one can see a congruence of interests in both countries opposing ethnic breakaway regions in parts of what would otherwise be each nation's "sovereign territory".

It is interesting though in that there is a large Armenian minority in Georgia.

Also has a large Azeri minority. The province of Javakheti in Georgia, on the Armenian border, is narrowly majority-Armenian, while the province of Kvemo Kartli on the Azeri border is uniformly Azeri along the southern border.

(In general, because of Stalin's influence, when the boundaries of the Transcaucasian Soviet Republicans were drawn up Georgia received very favorable lines, which has not necessarily worked out to its advantage in the post-1991 world).

On the flip side, the only one of the three of the South Caucasus states that remains fully intact territorially is Armenia, partly because its borders were so shrunken as to provide it overall ethnic heterogeneity homogeneity.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2020, 03:55:26 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2020, 04:10:13 PM by 413 »

So maybe this is more part of the below-the-radar dialogue rather than anything in the news, but do we have any specific source prompting other posters' use of the word "genocide" in this conflict? Or is it more the implication of what would happen if Azerbaijan recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh? Additionally, I see one poster attributing the desire for genocide to enmity towards Christianity. Is that really true? Though religious language has probably helped to further define the sides, I don't know that this differs from any other ethnic conflict regardless of faith. In that vein, this would strike me as even more out-there than the claim that the Yugoslav Wars were the first "religious war" of the post-1991 world. Armenian and Azeri ethnic differences are far stronger than in Yugoslavia, as Azeris are Turkic whereas Armenians are distinct from all major ethnic groupings, and I daresay that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would have ignited regardless of who was what religion.

As for whose fault this is and all that, let's try to get the timeline cleared up. Per Armenian claims (via BBC), the first move was made by Azerbaijan, which shelled civilian settlements on Sunday morning (27 September 2020), resulting in military and civilian casualties. Azerbaijani authorities in turn have attributed five civilian deaths to the Armenians. Martial law and military mobilization appear to have first been declared by Armenia then by Azerbaijan, with the latter declaring mobilization on today, Monday 28 September 2020 (per CNN). There are those that seem to believe that Armenia has no reason to start a war, and that seems correct to me, given that the objective for both sides is under Armenia suzerainty and has been for decades, so that would presumably point more towards Azerbaijan as the instigator.

@PSOL I'm trying to find more on there being a declaration of war, but everything that comes up is from yesterday and seems related to the aforementioned martial law/mobilization rather than a separate act.

Interestingly or not, Mikheil Saakashvili has apparently sided with Azerbaijan. Unsurprising, as Georgia's fuel dependence on Azerbaijan has determined a generally friendly relationship between the two since 1991, whereas Armenia probably has little that Georgia values. Additionally, one can see a congruence of interests in both countries opposing ethnic breakaway regions in parts of what would otherwise be each nation's "sovereign territory".

It is interesting though in that there is a large Armenian minority in Georgia.

Also has a large Azeri minority. The province of Javakheti in Georgia, on the Armenian border, is narrowly majority-Armenian, while the province of Kvemo Kartli on the Azeri border is uniformly Azeri along the southern border.

(In general, because of Stalin's influence, when the boundaries of the Transcaucasian Soviet Republicans were drawn up Georgia received very favorable lines, which has not necessarily worked out to its advantage in the post-1991 world).

On the flip side, the only one of the three of the South Caucasus states that remains fully intact territorially is Armenia, partly because its borders were so shrunken as to provide it overall ethnic heterogeneity.

I think you mean homogeneity.

The largest ethnic minority in Armenia proper (not including Artsakh) are Yazidis, at about 1.5% of the population. Every other group, even Russians, are under 0.5%.

The Azeri population was significant at the time of independence (around 3% in the 1989 census) but of course quickly relocated elsewhere.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #23 on: September 28, 2020, 04:09:52 PM »

I’m Muslim and hoping for Armenia.
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Cathcon
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« Reply #24 on: September 28, 2020, 04:16:18 PM »

So maybe this is more part of the below-the-radar dialogue rather than anything in the news, but do we have any specific source prompting other posters' use of the word "genocide" in this conflict? Or is it more the implication of what would happen if Azerbaijan recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh? Additionally, I see one poster attributing the desire for genocide to enmity towards Christianity. Is that really true? Though religious language has probably helped to further define the sides, I don't know that this differs from any other ethnic conflict regardless of faith. In that vein, this would strike me as even more out-there than the claim that the Yugoslav Wars were the first "religious war" of the post-1991 world. Armenian and Azeri ethnic differences are far stronger than in Yugoslavia, as Azeris are Turkic whereas Armenians are distinct from all major ethnic groupings, and I daresay that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would have ignited regardless of who was what religion.

As for whose fault this is and all that, let's try to get the timeline cleared up. Per Armenian claims (via BBC), the first move was made by Azerbaijan, which shelled civilian settlements on Sunday morning (27 September 2020), resulting in military and civilian casualties. Azerbaijani authorities in turn have attributed five civilian deaths to the Armenians. Martial law and military mobilization appear to have first been declared by Armenia then by Azerbaijan, with the latter declaring mobilization on today, Monday 28 September 2020 (per CNN). There are those that seem to believe that Armenia has no reason to start a war, and that seems correct to me, given that the objective for both sides is under Armenia suzerainty and has been for decades, so that would presumably point more towards Azerbaijan as the instigator.

@PSOL I'm trying to find more on there being a declaration of war, but everything that comes up is from yesterday and seems related to the aforementioned martial law/mobilization rather than a separate act.

Interestingly or not, Mikheil Saakashvili has apparently sided with Azerbaijan. Unsurprising, as Georgia's fuel dependence on Azerbaijan has determined a generally friendly relationship between the two since 1991, whereas Armenia probably has little that Georgia values. Additionally, one can see a congruence of interests in both countries opposing ethnic breakaway regions in parts of what would otherwise be each nation's "sovereign territory".

It is interesting though in that there is a large Armenian minority in Georgia.

Also has a large Azeri minority. The province of Javakheti in Georgia, on the Armenian border, is narrowly majority-Armenian, while the province of Kvemo Kartli on the Azeri border is uniformly Azeri along the southern border.

(In general, because of Stalin's influence, when the boundaries of the Transcaucasian Soviet Republicans were drawn up Georgia received very favorable lines, which has not necessarily worked out to its advantage in the post-1991 world).

On the flip side, the only one of the three of the South Caucasus states that remains fully intact territorially is Armenia, partly because its borders were so shrunken as to provide it overall ethnic heterogeneity.

I think you mean homogeneity.

The largest ethnic minority in Armenia proper (not including Artsakh) are Yazidis, at about 1.5% of the population. Every other group, even Russians, are under 0.5%.

The Azeri population was significant at the time of independence (around 3% in the 1989 census) but of course quickly relocated elsewhere.

Ugh, yeah, I meant homogeneity. Tongue Thanks.
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