Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[PSOL]

I’m surprised that neither Iran nor Russia are stepping up here outside of transporting weaponry. For example, Iran has its official channels calling for peace while individual representatives from Northern Iran are defending Azerbaijan.

The largest changing of lines of territory since the Nagorno-Karabakh war and not any evident moves going on to help Armenia.

[Saruku]

This is really unfortunate for Armenians. If they don't essentially surrender now, they might be lucky to have any part of NK proper in another 30 years. It was probably inevitable though, given that:

1. There hasn't ever been any political will among either country's leadership to reach and implement an agreement. Nor has there been any will among the other states involved, most of whom preferred the status quo to an agreement.

2. In the absence of an agreement, it was always very unlikely that Armenians could maintain the upper hand. Armenia was already weaker than Azerbaijan, and that gap has only increased as the economic blockade resulting from this very conflict has definitely had an impact on Armenia's development. Furthermore, Armenia has very little to offer to make it worthwhile for any country to come down hard on their side to the degree that Turkey has done for Azerbaijan.

It brings me no joy to say it as someone who definitely leans toward the Armenians, but it might be best for the Armenian people in the long run if Armenia makes heavy concessions to Azerbaijan in exchange for the lifting of the blockade. That won't happen, though.

[Omega21]

Geographically, it is best described as Asia. Politically and culturally, its a bit murkier.

This is why we should get rid of the idea of Europe’s as a continent.
Screw it, it’s just an extension of Asia.

Lol... Peak 2020 woke opinion right there

I'm assuming that by "we",  you mean the US should declare Europe non-existent as a continent unilaterally. Can't say I'm surprised by the opinion.

Anyway, hope the right side, i.e. Armenians, manage to hold most of the former autonomous region in the end. Both sides hands are bloody, but Azerbaijan is more to blame for this.

Lol, imagine thinking there is a “right” side in this conflict.
Yes Nagorno-Karabakh proper is majority ethnically Armenian, but the total occupied region includes many Azeris as well. Plus, Azeris fled the land causing an massive change recently. Additionally, the land is legally Azerbaijani. That’s not a defense of the Azerbaijani belligerence this year, nor does it justify the current conflict, but to assume there is a right side is actually hilarious. It’s like thinking there is a right side in the Russia-Ukraine conflict (there isn’t by objective standards)
If you want your country to support Armenia for geopolitical reasons and are just trying to justify such by pretending there is a moral absolute here, go ahead.

Also yes, Europe is just an extension of Asia. And it’s not out of wokeness, there is definitely a solid argument to be made.

Yeah, sure, if we don't consider any aspects other than modern geography.

Imagine saying yeah I'm going to the Parthenon, you know that temple in Greece. Oh really, where's that? Ya know, western Asia lol

Whether you like it or not, Europe is the birthplace of the majority of things, raging from political ideas such as democracy all the way to medicine, that shape the developed modern world we have today.

And ignoring every other cultural aspect and calling it Asia is just absurd.

But yeah, I don't imagine you would actually consider the opinions of actual people living on the continent before saying "we" should erase it out or existence.

And as I saud, both sides have bloody hands, but ones are bloodier than the other. And I specifically said I hope they keep the autonomous region, or in Russian and other Slavic languages, Oblast, that is and was majority Armenian by a wide margin, not all occupied areas.

America ran concentration camps for Japanese Americans, and is still on the right side or WW2 in a broad context.

Correction: Most advances in human history came from Eurasia.
As for you second point, could you explain why Armenia is objectively better in this circumstance when compared to Azerbaijan?
What is your reasoning?

Well apart from the fact that Azerbaijan is a corrupt petrostate, it is obviously the agressor in this conflict.

Plus, considering Turkey already committed full blown genocide on the Armenians everyone should be weary of any party they support against them.

[It’s so Joever]

Geographically, it is best described as Asia. Politically and culturally, its a bit murkier.

This is why we should get rid of the idea of Europe’s as a continent.
Screw it, it’s just an extension of Asia.

Lol... Peak 2020 woke opinion right there

I'm assuming that by "we",  you mean the US should declare Europe non-existent as a continent unilaterally. Can't say I'm surprised by the opinion.

Anyway, hope the right side, i.e. Armenians, manage to hold most of the former autonomous region in the end. Both sides hands are bloody, but Azerbaijan is more to blame for this.

Lol, imagine thinking there is a “right” side in this conflict.
Yes Nagorno-Karabakh proper is majority ethnically Armenian, but the total occupied region includes many Azeris as well. Plus, Azeris fled the land causing an massive change recently. Additionally, the land is legally Azerbaijani. That’s not a defense of the Azerbaijani belligerence this year, nor does it justify the current conflict, but to assume there is a right side is actually hilarious. It’s like thinking there is a right side in the Russia-Ukraine conflict (there isn’t by objective standards)
If you want your country to support Armenia for geopolitical reasons and are just trying to justify such by pretending there is a moral absolute here, go ahead.

Also yes, Europe is just an extension of Asia. And it’s not out of wokeness, there is definitely a solid argument to be made.

Yeah, sure, if we don't consider any aspects other than modern geography.

Imagine saying yeah I'm going to the Parthenon, you know that temple in Greece. Oh really, where's that? Ya know, western Asia lol

Whether you like it or not, Europe is the birthplace of the majority of things, raging from political ideas such as democracy all the way to medicine, that shape the developed modern world we have today.

And ignoring every other cultural aspect and calling it Asia is just absurd.

But yeah, I don't imagine you would actually consider the opinions of actual people living on the continent before saying "we" should erase it out or existence.

And as I saud, both sides have bloody hands, but ones are bloodier than the other. And I specifically said I hope they keep the autonomous region, or in Russian and other Slavic languages, Oblast, that is and was majority Armenian by a wide margin, not all occupied areas.

America ran concentration camps for Japanese Americans, and is still on the right side or WW2 in a broad context.

Correction: Most advances in human history came from Eurasia.
As for you second point, could you explain why Armenia is objectively better in this circumstance when compared to Azerbaijan?
What is your reasoning?

Well apart from the fact that Azerbaijan is a corrupt petrostate,

So?

it is obviously the agressor in this conflict.

Yes true. That’s why I think Azerbaijan is terrible here. That being said, one could easily argue that the conflict began when official Azerbaijani land was illegally occupied (and then one could argue before that etc)
But realistically, Azerbaijan started this and they are **sholes for doing so.

If you’re argument is that Azerbaijan is wrong for having initiated the conflict and that is somehow morally worse than the occupation of the land, that’s fine. That is a matter of personal philosophy.

Plus, considering Turkey already committed full blown genocide on the Armenians everyone should be weary of any party they support against them.

Dude...you’re Austrian.

Think two seconds about the standard you are setting.

[Omega21]

Dude...you’re Austrian.

Think two seconds about the standard you are setting.

I'm a Serbian living in Austria, and since 2 of my great-grandparents were exterminated in Jasenovac, with another one spending the war in Germany in a work camp, I don't really follow your point.

[It’s so Joever]

Dude...you’re Austrian.

Think two seconds about the standard you are setting.

I'm a Serbian living in Austria, and since 2 of my great-grandparents were exterminated in Jasenovac, with another one spending the war in Germany in a work camp, I don't really follow your point.

Welp, good thing the Serbs never committed any genocides within the past few decades!

[Omega21]

Dude...you’re Austrian.

Think two seconds about the standard you are setting.

I'm a Serbian living in Austria, and since 2 of my great-grandparents were exterminated in Jasenovac, with another one spending the war in Germany in a work camp, I don't really follow your point.

Welp, good thing the Serbs never committed any genocides within the past few decades!

Yeah, definitely a fair comparisson. 10,000 vs millions

Obviously one person is too much, but comparing Srebrenica to the Holocaust or the Armenian genocide makes me want to puke.

[Meclazine for Israel]

This is really unfortunate for Armenians. If they don't essentially surrender now, they might be lucky to have any part of NK proper in another 30 years.

Why are Armenians interested in North Korea?

[Lord Halifax]

This is really unfortunate for Armenians. If they don't essentially surrender now, they might be lucky to have any part of NK proper in another 30 years.

Why are Armenians interested in North Korea?

NK = Nagorno-Karabakh, would you prefer to have it abbreviated N-K?

[It’s so Joever]

Dude...you’re Austrian.

Think two seconds about the standard you are setting.

I'm a Serbian living in Austria, and since 2 of my great-grandparents were exterminated in Jasenovac, with another one spending the war in Germany in a work camp, I don't really follow your point.

Welp, good thing the Serbs never committed any genocides within the past few decades!

Yeah, definitely a fair comparisson. 10,000 vs millions

Obviously one person is too much, but comparing Srebrenica to the Holocaust or the Armenian genocide makes me want to puke.

The intent was the same, Srebrenica was not the only massacre, and you damn well get the point by now.

[PSOL]

https://ria.ru/20201022/granitsa-1581048960.html

The entire Iranian border of Artsakh is now fully controlled by Azerbaijan. If the Azeris don’t annex all of NK and the previous Azeri territory now, they will definitely in the next incursion so long as no other force is militarily involved in aid of Armenia.

Honestly, the saying that Russia has lost control over its border regions and spheres by the Western Liberal establishment might actually be true. If so, and if for some odd chance that Belarus and Kyrgyzstan fall to more anti-Russian leadership and the inner protests don’t stop, I don’t see Vladimir Putin remaining in charge much longer. Worse still for the current leadership is if for some insane possibility a color revolution succeeds again in Serbia.

From me reading up on this conflict a bit, what I’m reading is that drone warfare is vital in the current success of the Azerbaijani armed forces, and that now there could be a huge push by anyone with the means in buying their own drones. Such measures for less economically strong and secure countries are more cost-effective than drone defense. For the record, as I am not a military expert, I cannot say if such logic is true or false, it is merely what is being said in the limited areas I am getting this information.

Furthermore, by all accounts I could have gotten this info out of someone’s behind. Can anyone well versed in the applicable fields provide #analysis of the situation. I would like to hear from our Russian posters here as well to get the correct take on all this from “the ground”. How did it get this bad?

[urutzizu]

I agree with most of it, but I think you overstate the extent of Russia's role on the Armenia's side. If anything, it has been surprising how unwilling relatively Russia has been to intervene on behalf of Armenia.

It's interesting to compare the statements of Russia and various western Countries during the Crisis:

The situation of losing a significant part of Azerbaijani territory cannot be sustained forever

It is deeply regrettable that the hostilities continue, but they are not taking place on Armenian territory. [Russia's obligations under the CSTO] do not extend to Karabakh.

We’re hopeful that the Armenians will be able to defend against what the Azerbaijanis are doing,

It was determined that the attacks on Sunday came from Azerbaijan, Both sides must comply with the cease-fire. (..) I have noticed the political statements made by Turkey [in favour of Azerbaijan], which I find to be inconsiderate and risky. France is concerned by the warlike messages from Turkey which is in favor of Azerbaijan's reconquering Nagorno-Karabakh. And that we won't accept it, (he added, not mentioning that the region is internationally recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan)

We receive signals from Armenia to be ready for the talks, but not from Azerbaijan. If Baku continues its position to reject the ceasefire, we must ask ourselves to what extent we can remain neutral towards the parties.

They haven't said so officially, but Russia sees their Interests long term served better as part of closer relations with Turkey and the strengthening of the Moscow-Teheran-Ankara Axis, and that is a only logical choice (and you are seeing similar Movement in Iran with many high profile Clerics and other figures (Yadollah Javani, Ali Akbar Velayati, Naser Makarem Shirazi...) siding with "Muslim Azerbaijan". And Pashinyan, in typical populist fashion (Saakashvili, Elchibey..) failed to understand or was ignorant of the changing regional situation and failed to compromise with Azerbaijan. Aliyev, whilst, yes, a dictator of a corrupt petrostate, understands from a personal perspective how geopolitics works, resisted intense internal pressure and bided his time until Azerbaijan was ready to act. And hence all the takes by Western Observers before September about how the Azeri Army was a incompetent, corrupt Organisation with no morale and doomed to fail against the superior Armenian defence fell apart in spectacular fashion.

The Azeri Armed Forces have likely retaken almost half of Artsakh. There are some positive noises from both sides over the last day, Pashinyan has said Armenia is ready for "compromise solutions" and Aliyev mentioned the possibility of considering something like "cultural autonomy". But Armenians have very few Cards left. I suppose either way Pashinyan is more or less finished internally in Armenia.

[Karpatsky]

Adam Schiff has called for U.S. recognition of Artsakh. Extremely boneheaded and premature move, I think.

https://twitter.com/RepAdamSchiff/status/1319723293973368832

[It’s so Joever]

Doesn’t Schiff’s district have a ton of Armenians?
If so, I would not be surprised by this at all, he gets the vote of an extremely jingoistic group that definitely cares about this issue far more than the average American. Makes sense politically.

As for the actual measure, yeah it’s ridiculous and hopefully will get nowhere. Azerbaijan was unjustified in starting this current conflict, but recognizing Artsakh is way too much right now and probably only will make things worse.
We should just continue to push for a compromise.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Doesn’t Schiff’s district have a ton of Armenians?
If so, I would not be surprised by this at all, he gets the vote of an extremely jingoistic group that definitely cares about this issue far more than the average American. Makes sense politically.

As for the actual measure, yeah it’s ridiculous and hopefully will get nowhere. Azerbaijan was unjustified in starting this current conflict, but recognizing Artsakh is way too much right now and probably only will make things worse.
We should just continue to push for a compromise.

Yeah, from the figures I see on wiki, the district is at least 10% Armenian-American. Glendale, California, is the single biggest center of Armenian Americans in California.

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/31/armenia-azerbaijan-trade-fresh-accusations-of-karabakh-attacks

[palandio]

So Armenia called for Russian support and Russia said "Yes, we will intervene if Armenia is attacked inside the territory of Armenia proper".

Which means "We will stand aside while Azerbaijan and Turkey take all of NK".

My impression is that Armenia and Artsakh have basically almost no cards left. NK will get under Azerbaijani control again soon. The only thing that the Armenian population of Artsakh can still put hope in is that most of the former Autonomous Oblast proper is still under Armenian control (except Hadrut) and that behind the scenes there might be some pressure on Azerbaijan to refrain from ethnically cleansing the local Armenian population. Maybe.

[Lord Halifax]

So Armenia called for Russian support and Russia said "Yes, we will intervene if Armenia is attacked inside the territory of Armenia proper".

Which means "We will stand aside while Azerbaijan and Turkey take all of NK".

That'll affect faith in Russia as a reliable ally around the world.

"Moscow has spent more than a decade carefully crafting the image of a great power that jealously polices its droit de regard in most of the post-Soviet space, and that of a power that sticks with its allies for better or worse – be it Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine, or Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Belarus. But Russia’s reaction to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict seems a major reversal of both of these tenets of Russian geopolitics. Why has Russia refrained from being at least more diplomatically supportive of Armenia, a fellow member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation? And why do Russian foreign policy statements on the war sound meeker and less critical of Turkey and Azerbaijan, and less supportive of Armenia, than those of countries such as France? There are several reasons for this apparent paradox."

https://ecfr.eu/article/a_captive_ally_why_russia_isnt_rushing_to_armenias_aid/

[PSOL]

Shusha has been taken by Azerbaijan, which is smack dab in the middle of N-K. There is a very high probability that they will just leave a rump territory for now as a way for peace (or not if they want to keep fighting)

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, was anyone actually expecting Armenia to be routed so completely?

[Beet]

Putin has abandoned N-K because he is in a larger project to peel Turkey off from the Western alliance, a far bigger prize. Turkey will not enter the Russian orbit, but it could become neutral. For instance, Turkey supported the government of Nicolas Maduro in 2019 against Juan Guaido's challenge. However, Russia will have to intervene if Armenia proper is threatened.

[Lechasseur]

So Armenia called for Russian support and Russia said "Yes, we will intervene if Armenia is attacked inside the territory of Armenia proper".

Which means "We will stand aside while Azerbaijan and Turkey take all of NK".

That'll affect faith in Russia as a reliable ally around the world.

"Moscow has spent more than a decade carefully crafting the image of a great power that jealously polices its droit de regard in most of the post-Soviet space, and that of a power that sticks with its allies for better or worse – be it Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine, or Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Belarus. But Russia’s reaction to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict seems a major reversal of both of these tenets of Russian geopolitics. Why has Russia refrained from being at least more diplomatically supportive of Armenia, a fellow member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation? And why do Russian foreign policy statements on the war sound meeker and less critical of Turkey and Azerbaijan, and less supportive of Armenia, than those of countries such as France? There are several reasons for this apparent paradox."

https://ecfr.eu/article/a_captive_ally_why_russia_isnt_rushing_to_armenias_aid/

Yeah I personally wouldn't be surprised if Armenia ends up in the Western camp pretty soon after this.

Which is ironic, as I think Armenia were traditionally on the Russian side and Azerbaijan the Western one. Looks like that will flip now.

[Lechasseur]

I mean, was anyone actually expecting Armenia to be routed so completely?

I didn't

[Omega21]

I mean, was anyone actually expecting Armenia to be routed so completely?

I didn't

Azerbaijan is ages away in terms of Drone warfare.

They have very capable Turkish drones, almost comparable to US ones.

Recon and armed Drones + Conventional Artillery using the recon info from drones has proven too much for the much weaker Armenians.

[Crumpets]

War over? Looks like Pashinyan called it quits.

https://www.facebook.com/nikol.pashinyan/posts/2807204759599901

Dear compatriots, sisters and brothers. I personally made a very hard decision for me and all of us.
I have signed a statement on the termination of the Karabakh war with Russian and Azerbaijani presidents from 01.00 pm. The text of the statement that has already been published is unbelievably painful for me and our people.
I made that decision as a result of a deep analysis of the military situation and appreciation of the people who have the best possession of the situation. Also based on the belief that this is the best solution in the situation created. I'll write a message about it in the coming days.
It's not a victory, but there's no defeat until you know yourself. We will never know ourselves and this should be the start of our national unity, rebirth era.
We need to analyze our years of independence to plan our future and not repeat the mistakes of the past.
I kneel down to all our victims. I bow down to all our soldiers, killers, generals, volunteers who protected and protected their homeland with their lives. They have saved Artsakh by their personalities.
We fought till the end. And we will win. Artsakh is standing.
Long live Armenia. Long live Artsakh.

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1325930781982806020