Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[Logical]

The US has taken a much stronger stance on the latest Azeri aggression than Russia and CSTO lol.
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570464658707947521

Iran's taken a pretty strong stance too. Strange part of the world.

The next step for an expansionist Azerbaijan is conquering NW Iran with its large Azerbaijani speaking population. It is strongly within their interest that Armenia survives.

[rc18]

The US has taken a much stronger stance on the latest Azeri aggression than Russia and CSTO lol.
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570464658707947521

As a California Democrat, not on behalf of the US.

Blinken meanwhile is doing the usual 'both sides' sh**t to avoid pressuring Aliyev,

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1569730123850567680?s=20&t=UBbpGzEMJ5H...

[Lord Halifax]

The US has taken a much stronger stance on the latest Azeri aggression than Russia and CSTO lol.
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570464658707947521

Iran's taken a pretty strong stance too. Strange part of the world.

The next step for an expansionist Azerbaijan is conquering NW Iran with its large Azerbaijani speaking population. It is strongly within their interest that Armenia survives.

Azerbaijan doesn't have a chance in hell of conquering any part of Iran, and apart from a tiny minority Iranian Azeris are not separatists dreaming of becoming part of a Greater Azerbaijan. Iran is an old empire perceived as a natural entity by most of its minorities.

Aliyev isn't particularly popular with Iranian Azeris. On the contrary many (likely most) of them see Azerbaijan as a renegade territory that should rejoin "the Iranian motherland", from which it was unjustly separated as a result of the Russo-Persian wars in the early 19th century.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Blinken meanwhile is doing the usual 'both sides' sh**t to avoid pressuring Aliyev,

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1569730123850567680?s=20&t=UBbpGzEMJ5H...

I would've sacked him just for his dumb bothsidesing on Bolivia. His being able to stick around is definitely one of Biden's great weaknesses to me.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm not very sympathetic to the people lionising Armenia here, like they were in a dominant postion 20 years ago and until very recently had been slow-walking the peace process, in fact in the inital conflict much of their justification for annexing land was that they would be used as a bargaining chip in the peace process but were prevented from doing so by their own domestic irredentism.

Now Azerbajian is obviously not a sympathetic country and the fact that ethenic cleansing will happen is tragic but this isn't a conflict where I can see as any side possesing much moral superiority over the other.

https://media.am/en/viewpoint/2020/12/07/25383/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=pmd_i6g5LL5RGjoLiJE4VxOcKA0lGVCLS2RAXCXm8b6BSd0-1634150152-0-gqNtZGzNAlCjcnBszQjl

[rc18]

I'm not very sympathetic to the people lionising Armenia here, like they were in a dominant postion 20 years ago and until very recently had been slow-walking the peace process, in fact in the inital conflict much of their justification for annexing land was that they would be used as a bargaining chip in the peace process but were prevented from doing so by their own domestic irredentism.

Now Azerbajian is obviously not a sympathetic country and the fact that ethenic cleansing will happen is tragic but this isn't a conflict where I can see as any side possesing much moral superiority over the other.

https://media.am/en/viewpoint/2020/12/07/25383/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=pmd_i6g5LL5RGjoLiJE4VxOcKA0lGVCLS2RAXCXm8b6BSd0-1634150152-0-gqNtZGzNAlCjcnBszQjl

I don't see anyone particularly lionising Armenia here, that that is how you are interpreting criticism of Azerbaijan says more about you than anyone else here.

As does the bolded part.

[Logical]

The US has taken a much stronger stance on the latest Azeri aggression than Russia and CSTO lol.
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570464658707947521

As a California Democrat, not on behalf of the US.

Blinken meanwhile is doing the usual 'both sides' sh**t to avoid pressuring Aliyev,

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1569730123850567680?s=20&t=UBbpGzEMJ5H...

The official readout of these calls are different though and points the finger at AZ
https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-armenian-prime-minister-pashinyan-7/

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke overnight with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to convey our deep concern over the military actions along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, including reports of shelling in Armenia. The Secretary stressed the need for disengagement of military forces and assured Prime Minister Pashinyan that the United States would push for an immediate halt to fighting and a peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-azerbaijani-president-aliyev-6/

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke overnight with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to express deep concern over military action along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, including shelling in Armenia. Secretary Blinken urged President Aliyev to cease hostilities and stressed that the United States would push for an immediate halt to fighting and a peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://t.me/sputnik/13258

Refers to the CSTO operational group starting work in Armenia, but footage is generals in a plane.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220916-macron-voices-his-support-for-armenian-sovereignty-amid-azerbaijan-ceasefire

Emmanuel Macron has stated his support for Armenia's sovereignty

[DavidB.]

In general I'm happy about the Old Empire's power being reduced, but in the process it was always going to get... rough around the edges, geographically speaking. Also an example of why it's not right to call these "frozen conflicts" - the conflict isn't frozen, the solution is.

I visited both Azerbaijan and Armenia multiple times, and to say both should have wildly different priorities than to wage another war is a massive understatement. It's incredibly sad to see and I hope it will be calm soon again. Some of my two cents:

- For those trying to portray this as a Christian vs. Muslim conflict, it isn't. Not in the first, second, third, fourth etc. place at least. This is an ancient mountain people and an ancient steppe people fighting for a piece of land they have both inhabited for a very long time. Any attempt to portray this as a religious conflict, from one angle or another, is just propaganda. (Of the two countries, Armenia is the more religious one too.)

- In my personal experience, I have the impression that the assertion - made in this thread before - that many Azerbaijanis' hatred towards Armenians verges on genocidal is correct, unfortunately. This is even the case for otherwise reasonable, relatively liberal, Russian-language educated, non-religious people from Baku.

- At the same time, Armenian attempts to connect this conflict to their genocide or blame Azerbaijanis for it are incorrect - I understand it, being attacked from all sides by enemies who themselves feel very clearly motivated by something they have in common, but it's not factually correct. Azerbaijanis aren't to blame for the Armenian genocide and in fact, both sides have committed pogroms against each other historically. Just look up the Khojaly massacre for a relatively recent case. This is truly a case of "both sides do it".

[Coldstream]

In general I'm happy about the Old Empire's power being reduced, but in the process it was always going to get... rough around the edges, geographically speaking. Also an example of why it's not right to call these "frozen conflicts" - the conflict isn't frozen, the solution is.

I visited both Azerbaijan and Armenia multiple times, and to say both should have wildly different priorities than to wage another war is a massive understatement. It's incredibly sad to see and I hope it will be calm soon again. Some of my two cents:

- For those trying to portray this as a Christian vs. Muslim conflict, it isn't. Not in the first, second, third, fourth etc. place at least. This is an ancient mountain people and an ancient steppe people fighting for a piece of land they have both inhabited for a very long time. Any attempt to portray this as a religious conflict, from one angle or another, is just propaganda. (Of the two countries, Armenia is the more religious one too.)

- In my personal experience, I have the impression that the assertion - made in this thread before - that many Azerbaijanis' hatred towards Armenians verges on genocidal is correct, unfortunately. This is even the case for otherwise reasonable, relatively liberal, Russian-language educated, non-religious people from Baku.

- At the same time, Armenian attempts to connect this conflict to their genocide or blame Azerbaijanis for it are incorrect - I understand it, being attacked from all sides by enemies who themselves feel very clearly motivated by something they have in common, but it's not factually correct. Azerbaijanis aren't to blame for the Armenian genocide and in fact, both sides have committed pogroms against each other historically. Just look up the Khojaly massacre for a relatively recent case. This is truly a case of "both sides do it".

I met an Azeri at uni, and getting Azeris to talk about Armenians is a lot like Eastern Europeans talking about Romani’s. It seemed a very deep rooted conviction.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Armenia’s fight for its survival against genocide should be supported wholeheartedly, including with weapons.

Azerbaijan and Turkey should be severely sanctioned even if only for their domestic policies, let alone their foreign policies. “One people, two states”—and elimination of any minorities. These are foundational to Turkey and Azerbaijan as nations.

[CumbrianLefty]

Armenia’s fight for its survival against genocide should be supported wholeheartedly, including with weapons.

Azerbaijan and Turkey should be severely sanctioned even if only for their domestic policies, let alone their foreign policies. “One people, two states”—and elimination of any minorities. These are foundational to Turkey and Azerbaijan as nations.

"There was no genocide", then in the next breath "but they should have finished the job". Just as with many Islamists and the Holocaust, so it often is with Turkic people and the Armenians.

[All Along The Watchtower]

And FTR, Armenia would have to loved to be in a position to join the EU and NATO, but even if they weren’t rather involuntarily under the Russian “sphere of influence” the problem of Turkey raises its head. Russia hasn’t exactly been a good ally either; Moscow is Azerbaijan’s biggest source of weapons, for one, and they’re rather preoccupied by Putin’s catastrophically stupid war against Ukraine. That basically leaves Armenia with Iran. Yay even more sanctions and international isolation, and it’s not like Iran has much to offer in defense either, realistically.    

Btw, in addition to being stuck with deeply problematic “allies”, Armenia is small, poor, and strategically unimportant. And sure, there have been atrocities committed by Armenians against Azeris. Those pale in comparison to the openly stated genocidal intent of Azerbaijan’s government, who want all of Armenia’s already-shrunken territory regardless. Armenia isn’t an oil producer that bribes politicians in Europe and the US, nor does it have a major NATO military backing it unconditionally—and they have nothing close to the global support or at least sympathy that Palestinians or Ukrainians have.

Bottom line, as far as most countries are concerned Armenia’s existence is a minor inconvenience that can be safely ignored.

[Lord Halifax]

And FTR, Armenia would have to loved to be in a position to join the EU and NATO, but even if they weren’t rather involuntarily under the Russian “sphere of influence” the problem of Turkey raises its head. Russia hasn’t exactly been a good ally either; Moscow is Azerbaijan’s biggest source of weapons, for one, and they’re rather preoccupied by Putin’s catastrophically stupid war against Ukraine. That basically leaves Armenia with Iran. Yay even more sanctions and international isolation, and it’s not like Iran has much to offer in defense either, realistically.    

Unlike Georgia and Azerbaijan that both have tiny bits of territory north of the Greater Caucasus watershed Armenia is located fully within Asia which means it isn't eligible for EU membership.

[All Along The Watchtower]

And FTR, Armenia would have to loved to be in a position to join the EU and NATO, but even if they weren’t rather involuntarily under the Russian “sphere of influence” the problem of Turkey raises its head. Russia hasn’t exactly been a good ally either; Moscow is Azerbaijan’s biggest source of weapons, for one, and they’re rather preoccupied by Putin’s catastrophically stupid war against Ukraine. That basically leaves Armenia with Iran. Yay even more sanctions and international isolation, and it’s not like Iran has much to offer in defense either, realistically.    

Unlike Georgia and Azerbaijan that both have tiny bits of territory north of the Greater Caucasus watershed Armenia is located fully within Asia which means it isn't eligible for EU membership.

Thanks for that correction.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

And FTR, Armenia would have to loved to be in a position to join the EU and NATO, but even if they weren’t rather involuntarily under the Russian “sphere of influence” the problem of Turkey raises its head. Russia hasn’t exactly been a good ally either; Moscow is Azerbaijan’s biggest source of weapons, for one, and they’re rather preoccupied by Putin’s catastrophically stupid war against Ukraine. That basically leaves Armenia with Iran. Yay even more sanctions and international isolation, and it’s not like Iran has much to offer in defense either, realistically.    

Unlike Georgia and Azerbaijan that both have tiny bits of territory north of the Greater Caucasus watershed Armenia is located fully within Asia which means it isn't eligible for EU membership.

Being fully within Asia wasn't much of an impediment for Cyprus though.

[Lord Halifax]

And FTR, Armenia would have to loved to be in a position to join the EU and NATO, but even if they weren’t rather involuntarily under the Russian “sphere of influence” the problem of Turkey raises its head. Russia hasn’t exactly been a good ally either; Moscow is Azerbaijan’s biggest source of weapons, for one, and they’re rather preoccupied by Putin’s catastrophically stupid war against Ukraine. That basically leaves Armenia with Iran. Yay even more sanctions and international isolation, and it’s not like Iran has much to offer in defense either, realistically.    

Unlike Georgia and Azerbaijan that both have tiny bits of territory north of the Greater Caucasus watershed Armenia is located fully within Asia which means it isn't eligible for EU membership.

Being fully within Asia wasn't much of an impediment for Cyprus though.

island nations are different, they aren't "within" a continent, just more or less adjacent to one.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

And FTR, Armenia would have to loved to be in a position to join the EU and NATO, but even if they weren’t rather involuntarily under the Russian “sphere of influence” the problem of Turkey raises its head. Russia hasn’t exactly been a good ally either; Moscow is Azerbaijan’s biggest source of weapons, for one, and they’re rather preoccupied by Putin’s catastrophically stupid war against Ukraine. That basically leaves Armenia with Iran. Yay even more sanctions and international isolation, and it’s not like Iran has much to offer in defense either, realistically.    

Unlike Georgia and Azerbaijan that both have tiny bits of territory north of the Greater Caucasus watershed Armenia is located fully within Asia which means it isn't eligible for EU membership.

Being fully within Asia wasn't much of an impediment for Cyprus though.

island nations are different, they aren't "within" a continent, just more or less adjacent to one.

Different how? They're always grouped with the main continental landmass closest to them. In Cyprus case it's Asia, and they still let them into the EU. It's a rule they could ignore for Armenia if they wanted to, that's what i'm saying.

[crals]

Armenia is a member of the Council of Europe. It's not considered to be less European than Georgia or Azerbaijan by absolutely anybody.

[Lord Halifax]

Article 49 of the Maastricht Treaty says that any "European state" that respects a set of principles (incl. democracy, respect for human rights and the rule of law) may apply to join the EU, and that the question of whether a country is European is subject to political assessment by the EU institutions, so in principle the EU could decide that Armenia is a a European country. But the EU has never allowed a non-island country without any territory in geographical Europe to join (and e.g. requests from Morocco have been turned to due to them not being European) and I think it's obvious that Armenia, of all places, is not going to become the first such country. Not having territory in Europe provides the perfect excuse for the EU to say "partnership and no more" to Armenia.

It's just easier to allow an island state, say Cape Verde or an independent Greenland, to join than a small landlocked country in Asia or a coastal state in the Levant or North Africa for that matter. Granted Cyprus comes with its own particular set of problems due to being divided and having an unrecognized foreign statelet on its internationally recognized territory, but it's basically a special case that won't set any precedent so no reason to talk about it.

[Lechasseur]

Armenia is a member of the Council of Europe. It's not considered to be less European than Georgia or Azerbaijan by absolutely anybody.

Exactly, either they're all European or none of them are

[Logical]

If you were a participant in Eurovision you should be eligible EU membership (yes, even Australia).

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Not much to report on the ground (in Yerevan at least). Apparently, Nancy Pelosi is in town, and because of this, the streets were lined with American flags on Saturday. Last Wednesday a Russian volunteer and I were placed in the awkward position of being on a patio full of Armenians lamenting their lack of external support.

Interesting thread in r/Azerbaijan this morning asking why Armenia has better diplomacy--referring to the recent expressions of public support from France, the United States, etc. Some correctly see this as primarily rhetorical support. Others have an intriguing theory that foreign powers like to prop up Armenia to create a wedge between Azerbaijan and Turkey and prevent the true, full power of a united Turkic state. That feels sort of like the Azerbaijani version of the typical Russia-originating conspiratorial views on the region.

As referred to in a separate thread from a few days ago, there apparently have been people expressing the desire to see the sons of their politicians and oligarchs die in a military engagement, apparently a reaction against the fact that Azerbaijani casualties are working class.

[Хahar 🤔]

Interesting thread in r/Azerbaijan this morning asking why Armenia has better diplomacy--referring to the recent expressions of public support from France, the United States, etc. Some correctly see this as primarily rhetorical support. Others have an intriguing theory that foreign powers like to prop up Armenia to create a wedge between Azerbaijan and Turkey and prevent the true, full power of a united Turkic state. That feels sort of like the Azerbaijani version of the typical Russia-originating conspiratorial views on the region.

I've always found it amusing that nearly any book you read on modern Persian history will bring up how much Persians love conspiracy theories.