Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

There's been an interesting conversation (at least online) regarding Armenians and their stance on the war in Ukraine. Initially, it seemed the tone was sympathetic to Ukraine--despite Armenia's defense dependency on, and longtime "partnership" with Russia--and many seemed instinctively disgusted by the idea of a powerful neighbor invading and committing atrocities. But as tensions with Azerbaijan have increased, and Ukraine has apparently cheered-on the prospect of Azerbaijan's reunification, Armenians' stance has reassumed its natural place in alignment with Russia (despite obvious disappointment with the uselessness of Russian peacekeepers). Armenia is of course in a delicate position, because Armenians in NK are reliant on Russia for their very survival, and in terms of ideological interests, Armenians have no love for the unionism of Ukrainian (or Georgian) nationalism, as Nagorno-Karabakh occupies a position analogous to that of Crimea or South Ossetia. Nevertheless, many younger Armenians speak English and seem to lean Western, but even after the Velvet Revolutiom the West and Armenia seem to have no common interests.

[It’s so Joever]

The fact is, Azerbaijan has always been a better nation for our own geopolitical interests. It’s shocking people are finally realizing this. The only reason many don’t see this is because of the Armenian-American lobbyists, who (rightfully so given this is their people who are being massacred) have been doing their best to push the public against this.

[Storr]

Video of Russian vehicles (reportedly) moving out of Karabakh. Ten fuel trucks are in the column heading east, which fits with the reported lack of Russian fuel supplies at the front. https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1508056962205949954?s=20&t=8gaN9SNevs...

[Mopsus]

https://twitter.com/AliTahmizian/status/1507838457984524291?s=20&t=rf7o8ETve...

For some reason I thought Iran and Azerbaijan were on good terms. Did Russia pressure them to say this?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://twitter.com/AliTahmizian/status/1507838457984524291?s=20&t=rf7o8ETve...

For some reason I thought Iran and Azerbaijan were on good terms. Did Russia pressure them to say this?

I can't give you a totally up-to-date picture on their relationship, but they were at a logger-heads as recently as last summer, I recall. There are a few key issues contributing to this. (1) Longstanding Russo-Armenian-Iranian ties, which need not be discussed at length; (2) An ever-emboldened Azerbaijan which might imagine "liberating" the periphery of a greater Azerbaijan with land in both modern-day Armenia (where there have been regular cross-border incursions) and modern-day Iran (which has a sizable Azeri population in its northwest); (3) The Israeli-Turkey/Azerbaijan rapprochement, fuel agreements, and weapons sales, which forces Iranian policymakers to imagine an Israeli intelligence outpost right on their borders.

There nevertheless may have been recent signs that tensions were ebbing--as evidenced by a chance Google find mere moments ago pointing to a recent Iranian-Azerbaijani transit relationship that (once again) circumnavigates Armenia.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/AliTahmizian/status/1507838457984524291?s=20&t=rf7o8ETve...

For some reason I thought Iran and Azerbaijan were on good terms. Did Russia pressure them to say this?

I can't give you a totally up-to-date picture on their relationship, but they were at a logger-heads as recently as last summer, I recall. There are a few key issues contributing to this. (1) Longstanding Russo-Armenian-Iranian ties, which need not be discussed at length; (2) An ever-emboldened Azerbaijan which might imagine "liberating" the periphery of a greater Azerbaijan with land in both modern-day Armenia (where there have been regular cross-border incursions) and modern-day Iran (which has a sizable Azeri population in its northwest); (3) The Israeli-Turkey/Azerbaijan rapprochement, fuel agreements, and weapons sales, which forces Iranian policymakers to imagine an Israeli intelligence outpost right on their borders.

There nevertheless may have been recent signs that tensions were ebbing--as evidenced by a chance Google find mere moments ago pointing to a recent Iranian-Azerbaijani transit relationship that (once again) circumnavigates Armenia.

Indeed, there are by most counts more Azeris in Iran than there are in Azerbaijan, just as Afghanistan has more Tajiks than Tajikistan.

[PSOL]

If, and this is a very big if, Iran gets militarily involved then all eyes are on what Turkey may do. Azerbaijan’s military cannot defend itself against Iran’s numerous military branches and I seriously doubt Israeli intel can bridge that gap. Of course, Turkey getting militarily involved would destroy the economy given the importance of Iranian trade.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

If, and this is a very big if, Iran gets militarily involved then all eyes are on what Turkey may do. Azerbaijan’s military cannot defend itself against Iran’s numerous military branches and I seriously doubt Israeli intel can bridge that gap. Of course, Turkey getting militarily involved would destroy the economy given the importance of Iranian trade.

If this is the case, then given the potential second and third order effects, let's hope Turkey can rein in its dog.

[MATTROSE94]

https://twitter.com/AliTahmizian/status/1507838457984524291?s=20&t=rf7o8ETve...

I am pretty sure that Iran would defeat Azerbaijan in about 5 minutes if a war broke out. Iran has arguably the worlds strongest military (~30 million members when counting the Basij paramilitary) and Azerbaijan only has around 800,000 military members.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/AliTahmizian/status/1507838457984524291?s=20&t=rf7o8ETve...

I am pretty sure that Iran would defeat Azerbaijan in about 5 minutes if a war broke out. Iran has arguably the worlds strongest military (~30 million members when counting the Basij paramilitary) and Azerbaijan only has around 800,000 military members.

Have the Iraq War and current Ukraine conflict taught you nothing? Troop counts are not everything. Your count of Iranian troops is absurd (half the Iranian population...lol), but even if it wasn't, throwing half trained conscripts against well-equipped Azerbaijani troops is a recipe for dead conscripts and not much else. Considering how much more technologically advanced the Azerbaijanis are, as well as Iran's need to spread troops across the country and not just along the Azerbaijani border, I think it more than plausible Azerbaijan could hold its ground, and even expand, especially with likely American and international support.

[crals]

The fact is, Azerbaijan has always been a better nation for our own geopolitical interests. It’s shocking people are finally realizing this. The only reason many don’t see this is because of the Armenian-American lobbyists, who (rightfully so given this is their people who are being massacred) have been doing their best to push the public against this.

But is that really the only thing that matters?

[compucomp]

The fact is, Azerbaijan has always been a better nation for our own geopolitical interests. It’s shocking people are finally realizing this. The only reason many don’t see this is because of the Armenian-American lobbyists, who (rightfully so given this is their people who are being massacred) have been doing their best to push the public against this.

Since Azerbaijan is almost a proxy for Turkey at this point, there's also the little matter of the Armenian genocide, which said lobbyists have done a good job of keeping in the American public conscious. It must be unfortunate to tied in knots trying to act according to your interests while maintaining your claimed moral high ground, since the moral high ground decidedly belongs to the Armenians/Russians on that. Might it be better to have a foreign policy that basically says, let's keep out of each others' business and make money together?

[It’s so Joever]

The fact is, Azerbaijan has always been a better nation for our own geopolitical interests. It’s shocking people are finally realizing this. The only reason many don’t see this is because of the Armenian-American lobbyists, who (rightfully so given this is their people who are being massacred) have been doing their best to push the public against this.

Since Azerbaijan is almost a proxy for Turkey at this point, there's also the little matter of the Armenian genocide, which said lobbyists have done a good job of keeping in the American public conscious. It must be unfortunate to tied in knots trying to act according to your interests while maintaining your claimed moral high ground, since the moral high ground decidedly belongs to the Armenians/Russians on that. Might it be better to have a foreign policy that basically says, let's keep out of each others' business and make money together?

Well…I wouldn’t really give that much of a high ground to Armenia considering their own cleansings of Azeris, both sides honestly were equally awful during the Nagorno Karabakh wars and I stand by that unless someone can correct me on if I’m wrong.
Armenia DOES have the moral high ground on the Genocide 100 years ago so I concede that.

Anyways why do YOU care? You of all people shouldn’t give a flying f**k about genocides seeing as you are a CCP shill.

[It’s so Joever]

The fact is, Azerbaijan has always been a better nation for our own geopolitical interests. It’s shocking people are finally realizing this. The only reason many don’t see this is because of the Armenian-American lobbyists, who (rightfully so given this is their people who are being massacred) have been doing their best to push the public against this.

But is that really the only thing that matters?

Absolutely not and if Azerbaijan does try and invade the rest of Nagorno Karabakh despite the agreement being pretty decent for them, I will gladly be morally against it.

[MATTROSE94]

https://twitter.com/AliTahmizian/status/1507838457984524291?s=20&t=rf7o8ETve...

I am pretty sure that Iran would defeat Azerbaijan in about 5 minutes if a war broke out. Iran has arguably the worlds strongest military (~30 million members when counting the Basij paramilitary) and Azerbaijan only has around 800,000 military members.

Have the Iraq War and current Ukraine conflict taught you nothing? Troop counts are not everything. Your count of Iranian troops is absurd (half the Iranian population...lol), but even if it wasn't, throwing half trained conscripts against well-equipped Azerbaijani troops is a recipe for dead conscripts and not much else. Considering how much more technologically advanced the Azerbaijanis are, as well as Iran's need to spread troops across the country and not just along the Azerbaijani border, I think it more than plausible Azerbaijan could hold its ground, and even expand, especially with likely American and international support.

Iran will have firm support from Russia, China, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the other "Axis of Resistance" members in such a conflict. If all of those entities intervene, then Iran will have all of Azerbaijan conquered in just a few hours at the most.

[compucomp]

The fact is, Azerbaijan has always been a better nation for our own geopolitical interests. It’s shocking people are finally realizing this. The only reason many don’t see this is because of the Armenian-American lobbyists, who (rightfully so given this is their people who are being massacred) have been doing their best to push the public against this.

Since Azerbaijan is almost a proxy for Turkey at this point, there's also the little matter of the Armenian genocide, which said lobbyists have done a good job of keeping in the American public conscious. It must be unfortunate to tied in knots trying to act according to your interests while maintaining your claimed moral high ground, since the moral high ground decidedly belongs to the Armenians/Russians on that. Might it be better to have a foreign policy that basically says, let's keep out of each others' business and make money together?

Well…I wouldn’t really give that much of a high ground to Armenia considering their own cleansings of Azeris, both sides honestly were equally awful during the Nagorno Karabakh wars and I stand by that unless someone can correct me on if I’m wrong.
Armenia DOES have the moral high ground on the Genocide 100 years ago so I concede that.

Anyways why do YOU care? You of all people shouldn’t give a flying f**k about genocides seeing as you are a CCP shill.

You advocated that the US should support Azerbaijan in this conflict, and I'm answering why the US would have a lot of trouble doing so. The Armenian lobbyists you mention are not making stuff up like you insinuate, they're just reminding everyone of the Armenian genocide and then naturally public support shifts away from Turkey/Azerbaijan. As the memory of the genocide likely underpins and drives the current conflict this is not unjustified.

Why do I have an interest in this? We have our own beef with Turkey and so I'd probably rather see Armenia win, but we're not going to get involved since it has nothing to do with China's core interests. Works out better that way to result in a consistent policy that doesn't force one to contort into pretzels to maintain logical consistency.

[It’s so Joever]

The fact is, Azerbaijan has always been a better nation for our own geopolitical interests. It’s shocking people are finally realizing this. The only reason many don’t see this is because of the Armenian-American lobbyists, who (rightfully so given this is their people who are being massacred) have been doing their best to push the public against this.

Since Azerbaijan is almost a proxy for Turkey at this point, there's also the little matter of the Armenian genocide, which said lobbyists have done a good job of keeping in the American public conscious. It must be unfortunate to tied in knots trying to act according to your interests while maintaining your claimed moral high ground, since the moral high ground decidedly belongs to the Armenians/Russians on that. Might it be better to have a foreign policy that basically says, let's keep out of each others' business and make money together?

Well…I wouldn’t really give that much of a high ground to Armenia considering their own cleansings of Azeris, both sides honestly were equally awful during the Nagorno Karabakh wars and I stand by that unless someone can correct me on if I’m wrong.
Armenia DOES have the moral high ground on the Genocide 100 years ago so I concede that.

Anyways why do YOU care? You of all people shouldn’t give a flying f**k about genocides seeing as you are a CCP shill.

You advocated that the US should support Azerbaijan in this conflict, and I'm answering why the US would have a lot of trouble doing so. The Armenian lobbyists you mention are not making stuff up like you insinuate

I never insinuated that you lying f**k. Of course the Armenian genocide happened, but why should that influence our policy on Azerbaijan today when it happened 100 years ago when Azerbaijan didn’t exist?

, they're just reminding everyone of the Armenian genocide and then naturally public support shifts away from Turkey/Azerbaijan. As the memory of the genocide likely underpins and drives the current conflict this is not unjustified.

Ehhh, this really is above all else an ethnic conflict, and indeed the memory of the genocide plays a role, but that’s really not the full picture lmao. The truth is, both Armenia and Azerbaijan have been unreasonable in the Nagorno Karabakh wars and have sought land that should not be theirs. Both sides will deny this.

Why do I have an interest in this? We have our own beef with Turkey and so I'd probably rather see Armenia win, but we're not going to get involved since it has nothing to do with China's core interests. Works out better that way to result in a consistent policy that doesn't force one to contort into pretzels to maintain logical consistency.

You. Live. In. F**king. New. Jersey.

[PSOL]

https://twitter.com/AliTahmizian/status/1507838457984524291?s=20&t=rf7o8ETve...

I am pretty sure that Iran would defeat Azerbaijan in about 5 minutes if a war broke out. Iran has arguably the worlds strongest military (~30 million members when counting the Basij paramilitary) and Azerbaijan only has around 800,000 military members.

Have the Iraq War and current Ukraine conflict taught you nothing? Troop counts are not everything. Your count of Iranian troops is absurd (half the Iranian population...lol), but even if it wasn't, throwing half trained conscripts against well-equipped Azerbaijani troops is a recipe for dead conscripts and not much else. Considering how much more technologically advanced the Azerbaijanis are, as well as Iran's need to spread troops across the country and not just along the Azerbaijani border, I think it more than plausible Azerbaijan could hold its ground, and even expand, especially with likely American and international support.

Iran will have firm support from Russia, China, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the other "Axis of Resistance" members in such a conflict. If all of those entities intervene, then Iran will have all of Azerbaijan conquered in just a few hours at the most.

It seriously makes me feel ill from seeing this conversation

The Iranian armed forces meant for dealing with foreign concerns, consisting of the Artesh (regular army) and Sepah (IRCG), is not exactly “low-tech” unless you count the aging warplanes that will not be deployed in a conventional fight what with drones being a preferred choice. Iran has been mainly focusing on jamming technology and avoidance of detection for its infantry, and in all other categories it is “close enough” with its neighbors and makes up for any deficiencies with its experiences fighting across the region; the Artesh does have experience from the initial war in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the recent wars in Iraq to pull from. While Iran does have a larger population, Matt rose is just being a troll, no way their involvement will be anything but acting in a support role with some involvement by the special forces and Sepah. Also, in no way can the Iranian government convince the militia leaders it is allied with, nor want them, engaged in another front given they have more pressing matters “at home” to deal with.

The Azerbaijan armed forces are overrated, and while they will put up steep resistance, that is mainly due to the Israeli and Turkish intel (mainly Israeli geolocation services) and drones. Sure they bought a bunch of nice toys from their oil money and have experience, but they won decisively due to foreign support. Even with their shopping spree, most Azerbaijani conscripts mix old equipment from the Soviet era with newer purchases too, not to the extent of Iran’s situation, but still pretty bad. They would suffer from counterintelligence operations crushing them and a fight on most of their border, lol at the idea they would “expand”.

If, and this is a very big if, Iran gets militarily involved then all eyes are on what Turkey may do. Azerbaijan’s military cannot defend itself against Iran’s numerous military branches and I seriously doubt Israeli intel can bridge that gap. Of course, Turkey getting militarily involved would destroy the economy given the importance of Iranian trade.

If this is the case, then given the potential second and third order effects, let's hope Turkey can rein in its dog.

Azerbaijan is *not* a Turkish proxy, so I’m not sure how much leeway they can do here.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The fact is, Azerbaijan has always been a better nation for our own geopolitical interests. It’s shocking people are finally realizing this. The only reason many don’t see this is because of the Armenian-American lobbyists, who (rightfully so given this is their people who are being massacred) have been doing their best to push the public against this.

Since Azerbaijan is almost a proxy for Turkey at this point, there's also the little matter of the Armenian genocide, which said lobbyists have done a good job of keeping in the American public conscious. It must be unfortunate to tied in knots trying to act according to your interests while maintaining your claimed moral high ground, since the moral high ground decidedly belongs to the Armenians/Russians on that.

Yes, this is a reasonable series of points; I wonder if--

Might it be better to have a foreign policy that basically says, let's keep out of each others' business and make money together?

--never mind. Go back to Ducktales and mind your nephews, Scrooge.

[thumb21]

Of course the Armenian genocide happened, but why should that influence our policy on Azerbaijan today when it happened 100 years ago when Azerbaijan didn’t exist?

Nagorno Karabakh is surrounded, there is one road in and out. Part of that road around Shusha is controlled by Azerbaijan. If there is another war, there is a high chance that the entire Armenian population of Karabakh will be cut off and unable to escape. What happens to the Armenians living there if Azerbaijan defeats the Karabakh Armenian militia? Genocide is a very serious possibility.

The Armenian genocide happened 100 years ago, but there is still widespread denial, celebration of its perpetrators and strong anti-Armenian rhetoric. We are making a dangerous mistake if we think the Armenian genocide is something of the past that shouldn't affect our policies today.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I agree that Western nations’ foreign policy should account for the risk of further ethnic cleansing in Karabakh, but Armenian foreign policy means they can’t actually accept much Western help without risking Russia’s ire. Russia is much better placed to influence this conflict than most of Europe and the US and Armenia can’t afford them offering more support to Azerbaijan in the long run. We should probably not criticise them too harshly if and when they back Russia in Ukraine, but beyond economic support we probably can’t do much more.

In terms of FP, Armenia should try to win Georgia over and deepen ties with Iran. They also need to work out whether they’re going to put everything into defending Karabakh (to slow its conquest so that Russian peacekeepers can save some of it after the war in Ukraine) or fortify Armenia proper (Azerbaijan has already occupied border regions and may decide to advance further after taking Karabakh).

[CumbrianLefty]

Some loudmouth Russian MP has been ranting about nuking Azerbaijan, apparently.

[compucomp]

The Armenian genocide happened 100 years ago, but there is still widespread denial, celebration of its perpetrators and strong anti-Armenian rhetoric. We are making a dangerous mistake if we think the Armenian genocide is something of the past that shouldn't affect our policies today.

Just as an example of how this issue can still resonate in the US, there were several blowups on TYT when Cenk Uygur and Ana Kasparian got into it about Armenia/Azerbaijan and the Armenian Genocide. For the people saying immigrants should leave the politics of the home country behind... yeah, not so much. Also abandoned is any pretense that Azerbaijan is not Turkey's proxy. I'm honestly surprised that Kasparian is still with TYT after that.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The Armenian genocide happened 100 years ago, but there is still widespread denial, celebration of its perpetrators and strong anti-Armenian rhetoric. We are making a dangerous mistake if we think the Armenian genocide is something of the past that shouldn't affect our policies today.

Just as an example of how this issue can still resonate in the US, there were several blowups on TYT when Cenk Uygur and Ana Kasparian got into it about Armenia/Azerbaijan and the Armenian Genocide. For the people saying immigrants should leave the politics of the home country behind... yeah, not so much. Also abandoned is any pretense that Azerbaijan is not Turkey's proxy. I'm honestly surprised that Kasparian is still with TYT after that.

You're a China simp who watches TYT lol.

[compucomp]

The Armenian genocide happened 100 years ago, but there is still widespread denial, celebration of its perpetrators and strong anti-Armenian rhetoric. We are making a dangerous mistake if we think the Armenian genocide is something of the past that shouldn't affect our policies today.

Just as an example of how this issue can still resonate in the US, there were several blowups on TYT when Cenk Uygur and Ana Kasparian got into it about Armenia/Azerbaijan and the Armenian Genocide. For the people saying immigrants should leave the politics of the home country behind... yeah, not so much. Also abandoned is any pretense that Azerbaijan is not Turkey's proxy. I'm honestly surprised that Kasparian is still with TYT after that.

You're a China simp who watches TYT lol.

I don't watch TYT routinely, but knowing the backgrounds of the personalities, I went and searched on Youtube for how they reacted to Armenia/Azerbaijan to see if they would forget that they are now Americans and fight it out as Turkey vs Armenia. It did not disappoint. The point is bygones are most certainly not bygones with respect to the Armenian genocide.

Edit: To the point that the US should intervene in Azerbaijan's favor, it would be just as silly for the US to do so in order to bloody Russia's nose as it would be for China to intervene in Armenia's favor to bloody Turkey's nose.