2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

About the Maricopa vote dump in an hour or so:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325567242910593024

if these do not go majorly trump, will AZ be called?

[Mike88]

About the Maricopa vote dump in an hour or so:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325567242910593024

if these do not go majorly trump, will AZ be called?

If Trump doesn't win 59-60% of the votes there, it's a possibility. We'll see.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

There was another dump of votes in Pennsylvania:

Biden+4,853
Trump+928

Biden's lead now at 41,223 votes.

Speaking of Pennsylvania, does anyone know if Biden flipped PA-08?  Cartwright winning without a lot of drama really sticks out compared to the nationwide US House results!

my napkin math calculations say biden lost it by 4ish

[Non Swing Voter]

It's pretty ridiculous that ballots are still not fully counted in Arizona.  Haven't they been doing mostly mail ballot elections for years?

[Gass3268]

About the Maricopa vote dump in an hour or so:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325567242910593024

if these do not go majorly trump, will AZ be called?

These are "special ballots" too, so they probably lean towards Biden or at the very least won't give Trump the ~60% he needs.

https://twitter.com/MaricopaVote/status/1325105878547099648?s=20

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So... Utah. Biden’s now up to nearly 38% with 93% reporting, and seems like almost all that’s left is Salt Lake City. Still a chance he gets to 40, I’d think.

im happy that it looks like daddy mcadams will be saved by trump disgust

[Gass3268]

It's pretty ridiculous that ballots are still not fully counted in Arizona.  Haven't they been doing mostly mail ballot elections for years?

TBF, they are doing better than 2 years ago.

[Crumpets]

Annie Karni (NYT): President Trump said on Twitter that he would appear on a conservative talk radio show at 8 p.m. Eastern to discuss what he inaccurately referred to as the “Mail-In Ballot Hoax.”

[Non Swing Voter]

It's pretty ridiculous that ballots are still not fully counted in Arizona.  Haven't they been doing mostly mail ballot elections for years?

TBF, they are doing better than 2 years ago.

This kind of has more importance though.  If Biden squeaks it out then Trump's BS will have even less national sway.  They should do the nation a solid and hurry the f up.

[Brittain33]

From NyTimes:Michael Grynbaum in New York

Fox News’s audience plummeted yesterday after Biden became president-elect. During the Biden/Harris speeches, Fox had 3 million viewers, the lowest total of any network.


https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/08/us/election-results?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#christian-conservatives-reflect-on-trumps-loss-and-look-ahead

Good for MAGA-world to take a break from the news for a few days. Self-care is important.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1325267759769546753

[n1240]

Maricopa batch

Biden 3753
Trump 2999

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1325574471042928640?s=20

[Dr. Arch]

Maricopa batch

Biden 3753
Trump 2999

Call it. Arizona has officially flipped.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325563462433509376

I don't think he's appearing though.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1325267759769546753

Results like this might complicate the GOP's inevitable push to gerrymander.  How much of the white flight from the GOP is specific to Trump, that's what they have to reconcile going forward. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

Annie Karni (NYT): President Trump said on Twitter that he would appear on a conservative talk radio show at 8 p.m. Eastern to discuss what he inaccurately referred to as the “Mail-In Ballot Hoax.”

This whole thing is getting ridicilous. Just because Little Donnie is incapable if being a man and admit a defeat he's spinning conspiracy theories now until he's going to be in his grave.

[DaleCooper]

I think that the elderly white leadership of the Democratic Party is going to hurt them with minorities, regardless of who the VP pick is. Diversifying and getting new, younger, leadership is very important moving forward in order to help with the base.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325563462433509376

I don't think he's appearing though.

What is that even?  That sounds like some D list conservamoron.  He's not even getting Tucker to push this?

[DaleCooper]

Wow, that Maricopa drop was brutal for whatever hopes Trump may have had in the state. He cannot afford to win these drops by 11 points, let alone lose them by that much.

[libertpaulian]

Wow, that Maricopa drop was brutal for whatever hopes Trump may have had in the state. He cannot afford to win these drops by 11 points, let alone lose them by that much.

It was a small batch.

[Mike88]

Wow, that Maricopa drop was brutal for whatever hopes Trump may have had in the state. He cannot afford to win these drops by 11 points, let alone lose them by that much.

Indeed, but the amount of ballots maybe was small to the remaining networks to call the state. But if the trends continue, Fox/AP will be vindicated.

The next update is only tomorrow it seems.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maricopa batch

Biden 3753
Trump 2999

For now, I'm going to assume those 6752 votes were in the "waiting to be tabulated" bucket.  If so, Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 7553
Provisional ballots: 44668
Ballots ready for tabulation: 40426

Total: 92647

Using the same Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.

With these assumptions, an estimated 79937 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 16035 of them.  He currently trails by 20102, so would finish behind by 4067, up from 2117 in the last update.

I've seen enough.

[gf20202]

Wow, that Maricopa drop was brutal for whatever hopes Trump may have had in the state. He cannot afford to win these drops by 11 points, let alone lose them by that much.

It was a small batch.

When there's probably less than 100k votes left in the state, 7k isn't a small batch, especially when it increases the percentage Trump needs to win by the rest of the way.

[DaleCooper]

Wow, that Maricopa drop was brutal for whatever hopes Trump may have had in the state. He cannot afford to win these drops by 11 points, let alone lose them by that much.

It was a small batch.

Compared to what's left, it's fairly large.