2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Skill and Chance]

There was another dump of votes in Pennsylvania:

Biden+4,853
Trump+928

Biden's lead now at 41,223 votes.

Speaking of Pennsylvania, does anyone know if Biden flipped PA-08?  Cartwright winning without a lot of drama really sticks out compared to the nationwide US House results!

[Brittain33]

The BBC's liveblog has just posted a - probably incomplete - list of world leaders who haven't congratulated Biden so far:


Mexico: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador

North Korea: Kim Jong-un

Russia: Vladimir Putin

Saudi Arabia: Salman

China: Xi Jinping

Turkey: Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro

Hungary: Viktor Orban


So, did all congratulations Biden has received so far come from non-dictators?

AMLO's not a dictator.

His statement doesn’t require that AMLO be a dictator.

[Crumpets]

The BBC's liveblog has just posted a - probably incomplete - list of world leaders who haven't congratulated Biden so far:


Mexico: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador

North Korea: Kim Jong-un

Russia: Vladimir Putin

Saudi Arabia: Salman

China: Xi Jinping

Turkey: Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro

Hungary: Viktor Orban


So, did all congratulations Biden has received so far come from non-dictators?

He got a congrats from our esteemed 97%-of-the-vote-getting "ally" Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-egypt-idUSKBN27N0SM

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NW_Horadam/status/1325439595367063552
https://twitter.com/NW_Horadam/status/1325444450433306626

[Lord Halifax]

 the number of uncounted ballots remaining in Arizona:
Uncounted votes in AZ, according to The Arizona Republic:

About 43,761 ballots in Maricopa County, including 15,000 provisionals.
About 18,700 in Pima County, including 18,000 provisionals.
Roughly 23,000 in Pinal County, including 1,800 provisionals.
About 2,150 in Yuma County.
More than 3,000 ballots in Yavapai County.
Roughly 600 ballots in Coconino County.
Less than 500 in Navajo County.
About 900 in La Paz County.
Less than 400 in Gila County.
Less than 100 in Graham County.
Mohave County only has provisional ballots left to count, but the number remains unclear.

What's the likely outcome based on this?

Maricopa regular, Maricopa provisionals, Pinal regular and Pima provisionals are the big ones, how are each of them likely to go?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/NW_Horadam/status/1325439595367063552
https://twitter.com/NW_Horadam/status/1325444450433306626

Getting Republicans Elected Every November. Of course, I'm normally in favor of electing Republicans, but this is one instance where I definitely wasn't.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1325442345396039680

We’re going to whine. We’re going to whine so much. We’re going to whine on Twitter, we’re going to whine on the news. We’re going to whine about the vote so much, you’re going to be so sick and tired of whining, you’re going to come to me and go ‘Please, please, you can’t whine anymore.’ You’ve heard this one. You’ll say ‘Please, Mr. President, we beg you sir, we don’t want you to whine anymore. It’s too much. It’s not fair to everybody else.’ And I’m going to say ‘I’m sorry, but we’re going to keep whining, whining, whining."

[GeorgiaModerate]

the number of uncounted ballots remaining in Arizona:
Uncounted votes in AZ, according to The Arizona Republic:

About 43,761 ballots in Maricopa County, including 15,000 provisionals.
About 18,700 in Pima County, including 18,000 provisionals.
Roughly 23,000 in Pinal County, including 1,800 provisionals.
About 2,150 in Yuma County.
More than 3,000 ballots in Yavapai County.
Roughly 600 ballots in Coconino County.
Less than 500 in Navajo County.
About 900 in La Paz County.
Less than 400 in Gila County.
Less than 100 in Graham County.
Mohave County only has provisional ballots left to count, but the number remains unclear.

What's the likely outcome based on this?

Maricopa regular, Maricopa provisionals, Pinal regular and Pima provisionals are the big ones, how are each of them likely to go?

I did some analysis a few pages back based on the current county totals by category on https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html.  Basically, with some very favorable assumptions Trump can get real close.  So while it's difficult to see him winning (Biden is definitely favored), it's not impossible.  If I was on a decision desk, I wouldn't call it yet.

[Ichabod]

I believe that you obviously don't have any (good or bad) legal arguments about an stolen election when you lost Georgia (where the process in entirely controlled by Republicans), Arizona (where the Governor is a Republican) and Wisconsion, Pennsylvannia and Michigan (where Republican state legislatures made all the process a mess)

[MasterJedi]

There’s a change.org petition going around to recount and revote the entire election.

[dspNY]

Slightly off topic, but has Jill Biden indicated what her platform as FLOTUS is going to be?

Laura Bush was childhood literacy, Michelle Obama was healthy eating and reducing obesity, and Melania's is reducing cyberbullying, however ironic that is.

Also, Biden now up 10K in Georgia. Pretty much over there.

Jill Biden will work in education and focus on military families (the Bidens were a military family before Beau passed away) and a military family always remains a military family

[Gass3268]

the number of uncounted ballots remaining in Arizona:
Uncounted votes in AZ, according to The Arizona Republic:

About 43,761 ballots in Maricopa County, including 15,000 provisionals.
About 18,700 in Pima County, including 18,000 provisionals.
Roughly 23,000 in Pinal County, including 1,800 provisionals.
About 2,150 in Yuma County.
More than 3,000 ballots in Yavapai County.
Roughly 600 ballots in Coconino County.
Less than 500 in Navajo County.
About 900 in La Paz County.
Less than 400 in Gila County.
Less than 100 in Graham County.
Mohave County only has provisional ballots left to count, but the number remains unclear.

What's the likely outcome based on this?

Maricopa regular, Maricopa provisionals, Pinal regular and Pima provisionals are the big ones, how are each of them likely to go?

I did some analysis a few pages back based on the current county totals by category on https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html.  Basically, with some very favorable assumptions Trump can get real close.  So while it's difficult to see him winning (Biden is definitely favored), it's not impossible.  If I was on a decision desk, I wouldn't call it yet.

I’ve read that what’s left of Maricopa’s “regular” vote are special cases, such as ballots for disabled folks (large print, Braille, etc.), overseas, and military. On net, I imagine that would lean towards Biden.

[It’s so Joever]

Slightly off topic, but has Jill Biden indicated what her platform as FLOTUS is going to be?

Laura Bush was childhood literacy, Michelle Obama was healthy eating and reducing obesity, and Melania's is reducing cyberbullying, however ironic that is.

Also, Biden now up 10K in Georgia. Pretty much over there.

Jill Biden will work in education and focus on military families (the Bidens were a military family before Beau passed away) and a military family always remains a military family

Good.
Hopefully her efforts pay off and she can solidify the Dem swing along military voters.

[redjohn]

CNN reporting that Melania Trump is urging her husband to concede the race.

[emailking]

Not sure we can just assume Biden would have lost those states if the Green party was on the ballot. A lot of those hypothetical voters may have just stayed home. But yes we absolutely should have ranked choice voting like Maine so they can be on the ballot and receive votes and it doesn't matter.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NW_Horadam/status/1325439595367063552
https://twitter.com/NW_Horadam/status/1325444450433306626

That doesn't seem to be true.

The way I see it, the people voting for third parties are casting protest votes: not necessary that they actually believe what the Green or Libertarian believe or some other third parties.

If they can't vote for Green, they'll vote for Libertarian or some other third parties.

______________________________

all Georgia third parties: 1.24%

all North Carolina third parties: 1.23%

______________________________

all Michigan third parties: 1.52%

all Wisconsin third parties:1.49%

______________________________

[dspNY]

Not sure we can just assume Biden would have lost those states if the Green party was on the ballot. A lot of those hypothetical voters may have just stayed home. But yes we absolutely should have ranked choice voting like Maine so they can be on the ballot and receive votes and it doesn't matter.

Correct. I don't think Green Party voters universally vote Democratic without a candidate on the ballot. Many of them stay home or keep the ballot blank for President. The one time where it made a huge difference was Florida 2000 where Gore definitely would have won without Nader on the ticket

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1325305979081199616

[FrancoAgo]

there is a schedule for today counts update?

i just noted a update in Alaska count, Trump margin is up to 54,610

[Mike88]

CNN reporting that Melania Trump is urging her husband to concede the race.

"Donald, I do note vant to do more f***ing Christmas decorations". "CONCEDE NOWH!!"

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

The BBC's liveblog has just posted a - probably incomplete - list of world leaders who haven't congratulated Biden so far:


Mexico: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador

North Korea: Kim Jong-un

Russia: Vladimir Putin

Saudi Arabia: Salman

China: Xi Jinping

Turkey: Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro

Hungary: Viktor Orban


So, did all congratulations Biden has received so far come from non-dictators?

He got a congrats from our esteemed 97%-of-the-vote-getting "ally" Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-egypt-idUSKBN27N0SM

Jacinda Ardern, Justin Trudeau, Angela Merkel, Boris Johnson, and the leaders of Portugal and Austria have.

[Crumpets]

This list was posted earlier, but I'm just reposting below for my own reference and everyone else's reference with the current numbers.

Here's the current breakdown of margins in swing states (decided by less than 10%) from most Republican to most Democratic:

Iowa Trump +8.20
Ohio Trump +8.16
ME-2* Trump +6.6
Texas Trump +5.77
Florida Trump +3.37
North Carolina Trump +1.38
Georgia Biden +0.20
Arizona Biden +0.57
Pennsylvania Biden +0.60
Wisconsin Biden +0.62
Nevada Biden +2.13
Michigan Biden +2.64
NE-2* Biden +6.6
Minnesota Biden +7.10
New Hampshire Biden +7.11
Virginia Biden +9.72

*Congressional districts I only have numbers down to 1/10th of a percent.

[redjohn]

ME-2* Trump+6.6
NE-2* Biden +6.6

This is such a sign of the current political landscape.

In 2016, the gap between these districts (on a Pres. level) was about 8%, with ME-2 voting to the right of NE-2 after voting to the left of it for nearly every cycle. This cycle we may have a difference of 13%, which is a remarkable shift compared to 2012, 2008, 2004, etc.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1325484299995418624

[tjstarling]

This list was posted earlier, but I'm just reposting below for my own reference and everyone else's reference with the current numbers.

Here's the current breakdown of margins in swing states (decided by less than 10%) from most Republican to most Democratic:

Iowa Trump +8.20
Ohio Trump +8.16
ME-2* Trump +6.6
Texas Trump +5.77
Florida Trump +3.37
North Carolina Trump +1.38
Georgia Biden +0.20
Arizona Biden +0.57
Pennsylvania Biden +0.60
Wisconsin Biden +0.62
Nevada Biden +2.13
Michigan Biden +2.64
NE-2* Biden +6.6
Minnesota Biden +7.10
New Hampshire Biden +7.11
Virginia Biden +9.72

*Congressional districts I only have numbers down to 1/10th of a percent.

How much is left in Ohio? Don’t Democrats usually show decent improvement once later votes are counted? Of course, that could be different this year.