AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[Matty]

Wow, looks like eday turnout is anemic

[KingSweden]

Wow, looks like eday turnout is anemic

I do think this is like a 80% VBM district during regular elections, to be fair

[Virginiá]

lol @ this tweet. Miles is really getting around :

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/988884815393910784

[Matty]

Wasserman is heavily implying lesko is poised to win based on early vote data

Not sure how he is assuming that

[McGovernForPrez]

Vote by mail states are no fun on election night.

[KingSweden]

Wasserman is heavily implying lesko is poised to win based on early vote data

Not sure how he is assuming that

Returned ballots were a good clue. I’m sticking with Lesko +7

[Matty]

Yes but just because a republican is voting doesn’t mean they are voting for the republican

In every special election so far, the average gop share of the vote the dem received has been 14%

[KingSweden]

Yes but just because a republican is voting doesn’t mean they are voting for the republican

In every special election so far, the average gop share of the vote the dem received has been 14%

True. Though considering how Republican this area is, I’m sure you could weight that and still come out with Lesko ahead

[Adam Griffin]

Yes but just because a republican is voting doesn’t mean they are voting for the republican

In every special election so far, the average gop share of the vote the dem received has been 14%

True. Though considering how Republican this area is, I’m sure you could weight that and still come out with Lesko ahead

Based on mail ballots, winning 86% of Republicans, 5% of Democrats and 40% of independents would give Lesko around 52.5% of the vote. Assuming you hold the former two groups at the same support levels, Lesko would have to fall to 30% or less of indies to lose.

Granted, if ED vote actually does skew substantially in favor of Dems relative to EV, that could change.

[Matty]

Republicans have averaged 27.5% of indies so far in 2017/18 special elections

[Tintrlvr]

Wasserman is heavily implying lesko is poised to win based on early vote data

Not sure how he is assuming that

If on-the-day votes are as low as reports sound, this is probably right. Lesko clearly won the early vote based on the partisan breakdown, the question was only whether it was enough to ensure that Tipirneni couldn't win by pulling out a big margin in the on-the-day vote (which is much less Republican/more Democratic in this district than the early vote, so that wasn't entirely implausible). But if on-the-day turnout is dismal, Lesko should be fine.

[OBD]

Honest Prediction: Lesko +5
95% Range: Lesko +3 to Lesko +11
GUT PREDICTION: TIPERNINI WINS

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Republicans have averaged 27.5% of indies so far in 2017/18 special elections

That's tragic.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/04/24/us/elections/results-arizona-house-special-election.html

NYTimes breaks it down by precinct.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Republicans have averaged 27.5% of indies so far in 2017/18 special elections

Where do you get this information from?

[McGovernForPrez]

Yes but just because a republican is voting doesn’t mean they are voting for the republican

In every special election so far, the average gop share of the vote the dem received has been 14%

How are you calculating this? Do you mean based on polling?

[Matty]

Republicans have averaged 27.5% of indies so far in 2017/18 special elections

Where do you get this information from?

Just assuming it based on results

If, in a deep red district, the dems get their side and reps get their side, and the dem wins, it’s because of a massive margin among indies must have happened

[krazen1211]

Republicans will win this district.

[McGovernForPrez]

Republicans have averaged 27.5% of indies so far in 2017/18 special elections

Where do you get this information from?

Just assuming it based on results

If, in a deep red district, the dems get their side and reps get their side, and the dem wins, it’s because of a massive margin among indies must have happened

You're ignoring turnout though. That can make a big difference.

[Matty]

Republicans have averaged 27.5% of indies so far in 2017/18 special elections

Where do you get this information from?

Just assuming it based on results

If, in a deep red district, the dems get their side and reps get their side, and the dem wins, it’s because of a massive margin among indies must have happened

You're ignoring turnout though. That can make a big difference.

turnout only makes a marginal difference.

[Matty]

Polls have closed

Looks like 25k people voted on election day.

[KingSweden]

Republicans will win this district.

Boy this is some hard-hitting against the grain analysis.

Hey by the way has your kiddie diddler conceded yet?

[ExSky]

If this gets anywhere near polling numbers, it’s a bad sign for the right in November.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Republicans will win this district.

No sh**t Sherlock, when are you going to actually make useful posts like you used to?

[Matty]

The dem jumped from 3 to 13 on predictit

what caused that?