AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Like I have been saying this entire time: be cautious about writing off this race. We did the same thing with Doug Jones and Conor Lamb.

I agree that Lesko is probably going to win in the end, but I think it's going to be closer than expected. Either way, the GOP should be panicking right now.

Most people realized Lamb could win before election day

The issue is here, the raw data says that the people who have actually voted are 45%+ gop. Until that changes, I can't see Tipinerni losing by 8, let alone even getting close

We have 3 data points, two that show Tipinerni losing by double digits, and one where she is winning, but you are cherrypicking the best stat

Keep in mind that this district voted for the nazi sherriff arpairo, while lamb's district voted for statewide dems even in 2016

[Devout Centrist]

F**k it, I'm predicting a narrow Tipirneni win

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Like I have been saying this entire time: be cautious about writing off this race. We did the same thing with Doug Jones and Conor Lamb.

I agree that Lesko is probably going to win in the end, but I think it's going to be closer than expected. Either way, the GOP should be panicking right now.

Most people realized Lamb could win before election day

The issue is here, the raw data says that the people who have actually voted are 45%+ gop. Until that changes, I can't see Tipinerni losing by 8, let alone even getting close

We have 3 data points, two that show Tipinerni losing by double digits, and one where she is winning, but you are cherrypicking the best stat

Keep in mind that this district voted for the nazi sherriff arpairo, while lamb's district voted for statewide dems even in 2016

I didn't say Tiperneni was going to win, in fact, I didn't give a specific margin of victory for Lesko, I just said it was going to be closer than what all of us expect. And I didn't "cherrypick" any poll on here. I had the Lesko +10 poll in mind while typing my thoughts.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Like I have been saying this entire time: be cautious about writing off this race. We did the same thing with Doug Jones and Conor Lamb.

I agree that Lesko is probably going to win in the end, but I think it's going to be closer than expected. Either way, the GOP should be panicking right now.

Most people realized Lamb could win before election day

The issue is here, the raw data says that the people who have actually voted are 45%+ gop. Until that changes, I can't see Tipinerni losing by 8, let alone even getting close

We have 3 data points, two that show Tipinerni losing by double digits, and one where she is winning, but you are cherrypicking the best stat

Keep in mind that this district voted for the nazi sherriff arpairo, while lamb's district voted for statewide dems even in 2016

I didn't say Tiperneni was going to win, in fact, I didn't give a specific margin of victory for Lesko, I just said it was going to be closer than what all of us expect. And I didn't "cherrypick" any poll on here. I had the Lesko +10 poll in mind while typing my thoughts.

I mean I really don't see how this race will even be close. 49% of the voters who have voted so far are Republican (and 122k votes have been cast so far). This Emerson poll only has 40% of voters being republican.

And only 6% of voters are 18-34.

[Tintrlvr]

Like I have been saying this entire time: be cautious about writing off this race. We did the same thing with Doug Jones and Conor Lamb.

I agree that Lesko is probably going to win in the end, but I think it's going to be closer than expected. Either way, the GOP should be panicking right now.

Most people realized Lamb could win before election day

The issue is here, the raw data says that the people who have actually voted are 45%+ gop. Until that changes, I can't see Tipinerni losing by 8, let alone even getting close

We have 3 data points, two that show Tipinerni losing by double digits, and one where she is winning, but you are cherrypicking the best stat

Keep in mind that this district voted for the nazi sherriff arpairo, while lamb's district voted for statewide dems even in 2016

I didn't say Tiperneni was going to win, in fact, I didn't give a specific margin of victory for Lesko, I just said it was going to be closer than what all of us expect. And I didn't "cherrypick" any poll on here. I had the Lesko +10 poll in mind while typing my thoughts.

I mean I really don't see how this race will even be close. 49% of the voters who have voted so far are Republican (and 122k votes have been cast so far). This Emerson poll only has 40% of voters being republican.

And only 6% of voters are 18-34.

The early vote does skew strongly R in this district, though, due to the very high percentage of retirees. 49% R early vote and 40% R overall vote wouldn't be an unrealistic breakdown at all, even if as many as 2/3rds of all votes are cast early.

I don't think Tipirneni will win, but the poll doesn't seem inherently flawed. Congressional polling is hard, though, and I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up being way off.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Like I have been saying this entire time: be cautious about writing off this race. We did the same thing with Doug Jones and Conor Lamb.

I agree that Lesko is probably going to win in the end, but I think it's going to be closer than expected. Either way, the GOP should be panicking right now.

Most people realized Lamb could win before election day

The issue is here, the raw data says that the people who have actually voted are 45%+ gop. Until that changes, I can't see Tipinerni losing by 8, let alone even getting close

We have 3 data points, two that show Tipinerni losing by double digits, and one where she is winning, but you are cherrypicking the best stat

Keep in mind that this district voted for the nazi sherriff arpairo, while lamb's district voted for statewide dems even in 2016

I didn't say Tiperneni was going to win, in fact, I didn't give a specific margin of victory for Lesko, I just said it was going to be closer than what all of us expect. And I didn't "cherrypick" any poll on here. I had the Lesko +10 poll in mind while typing my thoughts.

I mean I really don't see how this race will even be close. 49% of the voters who have voted so far are Republican (and 122k votes have been cast so far). This Emerson poll only has 40% of voters being republican.

And only 6% of voters are 18-34.

The early vote does skew strongly R in this district, though, due to the very high percentage of retirees. 49% R early vote and 40% R overall vote wouldn't be an unrealistic breakdown at all, even if as many as 2/3rds of all votes are cast early.

I don't think Tipirneni will win, but the poll doesn't seem inherently flawed. Congressional polling is hard, though, and I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up being way off.

Do you have 2016 numbers to compare to? Would be interesting & helpful to see

[Pollster]

The Emerson poll pegs the electorate at 70% white - barring a seismic turnout shift, it is more likely to be 85%-ish.

[Xing]

I'm skeptical that this is actually going to be that close. But if it is a single-digit race, Republicans are going to get shellacked this November. Right now, I'm thinking Lesko by about 10%.

[Peanut]

Lesko by 6.

[NOVA Green]

So my two cents on this poll vs the Predictive Insights/ ABC15 Poll:

1.) The Predictive Insights / ABC Poll was based upon a Voter Model that used traditional Early Voting in Midterm Elections Voter Model... meaning 75% of those polled in the One-Day poll has already said they had voted.

The problem with that model, is that the initial indicators of THIS election, appear to indicate that turnout will be closer to 2016 than to the 2014 General Election (Although this is obviously subject to flux as we watch incoming ballot returns to try to create a Final estimated turnout model), but at the point where the poll was conducted, we were seeing maybe only 35-40% of the ballots in compared how this election turnout level currently appears to be trending.

A.) As I posted earlier on this thread based upon precinct level turnout data the initial surge of early votes was from the "usual places" that tend to vote early in Arizona, and have a disproportionate share of the early ballot returns (Hint: Think Sun City West, Sun City, and similar heavily Senior Anglo retirement precincts elsewhere within CD-08).

B.) This appears to be more representative of the 28 D- 48 R- 24 I Early Vote Numbers that were essentially most of the initial wave of vote dumps close to when the poll was conducted....

Maybe that model is closer to the final numbers and Independent Voters are a much lower share of the electorate than their Party Registration, in which case obviously the math becomes a bit more difficult for Democrats, as they become more dependent upon holding Democratic Voters, and maximizing Republican cross-overs.

2.) Emerson Poll:

A.) It appears here we are looking much more at a weighted RV model than an LV model here....

Voter Registration by Party, Ethnicity, etc seem to be a bit skewed compared to what we might look at as a typical "Off-Year" GE Turnout model....

This model looks more like a (24 D- 40 R- 36 I) so in many ways perhaps overcompensates for the likely under representation of Independent Voters in the Predictive Insights Model"

B.) Obviously the RV Model doesn't appear currently representative of the EV numbers we have seen to date....

The current EV numbers are more like one might expect from a "Base Election" and Turnout Model where both Registered Democrats and Republicans are voting early in high numbers, within a heavily eVBM (Early Vote-by-Mail) state....

Problem is that as several astute observers of changing patterns of VbM in AZ are reporting, it appears that voters are tending to vote earlier than they did four years back....  This leaves us with a huge problem when trying to create final turnout models when it comes to a state that reports EV by Party REG, in a district, where we really we don't have much recent political data to show what a potential Democratic Win might look like (Other than the relatively close '16 County Sheriff Race, and a few local elections for Maricopa County School Superintendent and the like (Which actually I might want to consider pulling precinct level numbers from considering Education is currently the #1 issue for voters in the District according to this poll).

C.) Education and Health Care are particularly interesting as the primary issues that voters are concerned about, considering that there is a brewing Teachers Strike in Arizona, and Senior Citizens have been a major factor behind the dramatic support for ACA since the 'Pubs tried and failed to repeal it just a few short months back....

This could definitely shuffle up the map a bit, since although there were significant swings against Sheriff Joe, even in heavily Trump '16 precincts, these tended to be the more Upper Middle-Class Areas, and NOT the most heavily Senior Citizen precincts within CD-08 where there were much more marginal swings....

3.) I see issues with both polling models, but feel the sympathy and pain of any professional trying to create a polling model for this district:

A.) Inherently ANY polling of CD elections has high MOE and low Confidence Intervals... period end of sentence.

B.) We don't have an easy turnout model for a district where voting habits have rapidly shifted between '08 and '18, especially in places where traditionally in "off-year elections" the Early Senior Vote has basically been the "Go-To standard.

C.) I am still incredulous about the insane cross-over voters in BOTH polling models.... The first one I chalked up to MOE among sub-samples among a small sample size.... the second poll, I'm looking at this and saying ok--- now IS the DEM/REP cross-over by party REG nearly as insane as both polls appear to suggest, or are talking more about "Self-Identification" Models of polling where many REG Indies are "Self-Identifying as Dem or Rep".

4.) My High Dem Model was among REG DEMs (97 D-3 R), REG REPS (10 D-90 R), IND (60 D- 40 R).

My LO-DEM Model was among REG DEMs (95 D- 5 R), REG REPS (5 D- 95 R), IND (55 D- 45 R).

Ultimately we already have a huge database, and as we get closer to election, we will likely have a better idea of the D-R-I % of Total Vote breakdown, AND as we look at individual precinct turnout levels might have a better idea of how this might all shakedown.

5.) Although I'm not sure if I'll be around on Election Day when the results first start to come in, thinking of taking a few hours of PTO to leave work a few hours early to be able to participate relatively live to provide whatever limited insights I might have available (Confess my complete personal ignorance of this district for the most part.)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Tiperneni's campaign released a Lake Research internal which shows her tied with Lesko at 44%.
Here is a photo of it.

https://imgur.com/eECIEQm

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Tipinerni tied 46-46 among people who already voted? Why are 8% refusing to say who they voted for?

[Landslide Lyndon]

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

My predictions go anywhere from Lesko by 6 to Tipirneni by less than 0.5%.

[BudgieForce]

Tipinerni tied 46-46 among people who already voted? Why are 8% refusing to say who they voted for?

Republicans who don't want people to know they defected?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow, if Hiral wins this, its game over for the GOP. I mean, no matter what the outcome is the GOP is screwed, but a win here would signal at least a 50+ Seat Pickup for the Ds.

She's winning 13% of Republicans. That's enough to pull off a win.

[MT Treasurer]

Tossup.

[Jeppe]

Tipirneni's monstrous lead among independents is incredible. It's almost 40 points.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wow, if Hiral wins this, its game over for the GOP. I mean, no matter what the outcome is the GOP is screwed, but a win here would signal at least a 50+ Seat Pickup for the Ds.

She's winning 13% of Republicans. That's enough to pull off a win.

Not when the electorate is 49% republican lmao. Unless you think she wins independents 80-20 and gets every dem

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

She's winning 13% of Republicans, 46% of early voters (tied with Lesko), and 63% of independents... I think she can actually pull this off... I still have Lesko winning by at least 4 points.

[Jeppe]

Early Vote Composition
Republicans = 48%
Democrats = 28%
Independents = 24%

Using breakdowns given by the Lake Research Poll, assuming that undecideds/would-not-says break evenly for both candidates.

Lesko = 48 (0.85) + 28 (0.075) + 24 (0.28) = 48.9% of the vote
Tipernini = 48 (0.15) + 28 (0.925) + 24 (0.72) = 50.5% of the vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm still not buying this.  PA-18 was a more D-favorable environment, and Lamb just barely eked out a win there after a great campaign.  I can see it getting into single digits, but it's difficult to see a D victory in this district.

[BudgieForce]

I'm still not buying this.  PA-18 was a more D-favorable environment, and Lamb just barely eked out a win there after a great campaign.  I can see it getting into single digits, but it's difficult to see a D victory in this district.

Yep, I'll have to see it to believe it. Dems getting within single digits would be more than respectable for such an old Republican district, but winning seems too far fetched.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Early Vote Composition
Republicans = 48%
Democrats = 28%
Independents = 24%

Using breakdowns given by the Lake Research Poll, assuming that undecideds/would-not-says break evenly for both candidates.

Lesko = 48 (0.85) + 28 (0.075) + 24 (0.28) = 48.9% of the vote
Tipernini = 48 (0.15) + 28 (0.925) + 24 (0.72) = 50.5% of the vote.

[Nyvin]

If Republicans start losing the Phoenix suburbs like this regularly the state of Arizona is officially a Dem leaning state....there's literally no where else in the state to make up those votes.