AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This Lesko definitely looks like she could turn out to be a Saccone-esque candidate.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Guys, she can do this. We were saying the same thing about Conor just two months ago. Look at the two candidates: Lesko looks like someone who is as crazy and obnoxious as Saccone, and Tipirneri looks promising and hopeful like Lamb. Don't write her off


Note: I was right about Northam, Jones, Young, and Lamb.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

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So excited for the "Blue Wave is dead" headlines! *sarcasm*

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

AZ-08, Ohio Predictive Insights: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/382924-poll-republican-holds-10-point-lead-in-arizonas-special-election

Tiperneni (D) - 43
Lesko (R) - 53

Wow, that is A LOT closer than I expected.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Like I have been saying this entire time: be cautious about writing off this race. We did the same thing with Doug Jones and Conor Lamb.

I agree that Lesko is probably going to win in the end, but I think it's going to be closer than expected. Either way, the GOP should be panicking right now.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Like I have been saying this entire time: be cautious about writing off this race. We did the same thing with Doug Jones and Conor Lamb.

I agree that Lesko is probably going to win in the end, but I think it's going to be closer than expected. Either way, the GOP should be panicking right now.

Most people realized Lamb could win before election day

The issue is here, the raw data says that the people who have actually voted are 45%+ gop. Until that changes, I can't see Tipinerni losing by 8, let alone even getting close

We have 3 data points, two that show Tipinerni losing by double digits, and one where she is winning, but you are cherrypicking the best stat

Keep in mind that this district voted for the nazi sherriff arpairo, while lamb's district voted for statewide dems even in 2016

I didn't say Tiperneni was going to win, in fact, I didn't give a specific margin of victory for Lesko, I just said it was going to be closer than what all of us expect. And I didn't "cherrypick" any poll on here. I had the Lesko +10 poll in mind while typing my thoughts.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow, if Hiral wins this, its game over for the GOP. I mean, no matter what the outcome is the GOP is screwed, but a win here would signal at least a 50+ Seat Pickup for the Ds.

She's winning 13% of Republicans. That's enough to pull off a win.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

She's winning 13% of Republicans, 46% of early voters (tied with Lesko), and 63% of independents... I think she can actually pull this off... I still have Lesko winning by at least 4 points.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

They're right, but they had the EXACT same title for PA18.

https://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2018/04/mind-gap

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Republicans have averaged 27.5% of indies so far in 2017/18 special elections

That's tragic.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Harold Supernanny is about to get obliterated by Debbie Lesko to Congress

You mean the 60s Barbie Doll is going to beat the Doctor? Yeah, by a healthy margin, but not "obliterated"

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How much did Trump win by in this district in 2016?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Kyrsten Sinema is a HEAVY favorite to win the Senate seat.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I really hope Tipi doesn't give up on politics.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Police Report loud partying at Sinema for Senate Headquarters.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/988990922024079360

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Trumplicans on twitter doing everything they can to try and deny a blue wave will make their party's massacre even sweeter.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Here's a good laugh

https://twitter.com/mike_Zollo/status/989001470031880193

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

ALERT: Lesko's margin is now down to 4.8%.

Now smaller than Arpaio's margin.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/989347820669939712