Who will control House/Senate in 2019?

[YE]

I'm feeling notably more cautious in the past couple of weeks:

Senate: 52R/48D (Dems flip AZ and NV, GOP flips MO, WV, and one other Romney/Trump state)
House: 222D/213R (Control undecided until CA finishes counting in mid December, lots of lawsuits but Dems eventually have 218 without the disputed seats)

The House is not happening. You're still too optimistic. The Korea bounce is too strong and it's gonna take a Mueller-inspired fallout to change the numbers to last month's levels or lower. You better start wishing for Korea to fall apart.

No one will care about Korea in 3-4 months.

[junior chįmp]

I'm feeling notably more cautious in the past couple of weeks:

Senate: 52R/48D (Dems flip AZ and NV, GOP flips MO, WV, and one other Romney/Trump state)
House: 222D/213R (Control undecided until CA finishes counting in mid December, lots of lawsuits but Dems eventually have 218 without the disputed seats)

The House is not happening. You're still too optimistic. The Korea bounce is too strong and it's gonna take a Mueller-inspired fallout to change the numbers to last month's levels or lower. You better start wishing for Korea to fall apart.

No no no....Trump's judges, tax cuts, immigration policies....Korea will save him says increasingly nervous man 190th time this year

[Skill and Chance]

I'm feeling notably more cautious in the past couple of weeks:

Senate: 52R/48D (Dems flip AZ and NV, GOP flips MO, WV, and one other Romney/Trump state)
House: 222D/213R (Control undecided until CA finishes counting in mid December, lots of lawsuits but Dems eventually have 218 without the disputed seats)

The House is not happening. You're still too optimistic. The Korea bounce is too strong and it's gonna take a Mueller-inspired fallout to change the numbers to last month's levels or lower. You better start wishing for Korea to fall apart.

Korea will be old news by November if it's anything short of Kim stepping down and ceding control of NK to an elected government of reunified Korea (which will never happen).  No one cares about foreign policy unless we are obviously winning or losing a war.

This is more about the strong economy, which will probably still be just as strong in 6 months.  But they will still lose plenty of seats.  Obama/Democrats didn't get any credit for the improving economy in 2014 after all.

[Confused Democrat]

I'm feeling notably more cautious in the past couple of weeks:

Senate: 52R/48D (Dems flip AZ and NV, GOP flips MO, WV, and one other Romney/Trump state)
House: 222D/213R (Control undecided until CA finishes counting in mid December, lots of lawsuits but Dems eventually have 218 without the disputed seats)

The House is not happening. You're still too optimistic. The Korea bounce is too strong and it's gonna take a Mueller-inspired fallout to change the numbers to last month's levels or lower. You better start wishing for Korea to fall apart.

No one will care about Korea in 3-4 months.

I don't think NK is most people minds rn anyways.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm feeling notably more cautious in the past couple of weeks:

Senate: 52R/48D (Dems flip AZ and NV, GOP flips MO, WV, and one other Romney/Trump state)
House: 222D/213R (Control undecided until CA finishes counting in mid December, lots of lawsuits but Dems eventually have 218 without the disputed seats)

The House is not happening. You're still too optimistic. The Korea bounce is too strong and it's gonna take a Mueller-inspired fallout to change the numbers to last month's levels or lower. You better start wishing for Korea to fall apart.

No no no....Trump's judges, tax cuts, immigration policies....Korea will save him says increasingly nervous man 190th time this year

Ehhh the tax cuts really could be keeping just enough white college grads in the suburbs on board.  That is worth taking seriously.  

Also, note that while the economy is great today, it will be historically unprecedented if we don't have a recession by the end of 2020.  Ironically, a Dem congress would insulate Trump from the fallout over that.

[BundouYMB]

Democrats will control both houses, obviously (not delusional/Republican hack).

[ON Progressive]

I'm feeling notably more cautious in the past couple of weeks:

Senate: 52R/48D (Dems flip AZ and NV, GOP flips MO, WV, and one other Romney/Trump state)
House: 222D/213R (Control undecided until CA finishes counting in mid December, lots of lawsuits but Dems eventually have 218 without the disputed seats)

The House is not happening. You're still too optimistic. The Korea bounce is too strong and it's gonna take a Mueller-inspired fallout to change the numbers to last month's levels or lower. You better start wishing for Korea to fall apart.

No no no....Trump's judges, tax cuts, immigration policies....Korea will save him says increasingly nervous man 190th time this year

Ehhh the tax cuts really could be keeping just enough white college grads in the suburbs on board.  That is worth taking seriously.  

Also, note that while the economy is great today, it will be historically unprecedented if we don't have a recession by the end of 2020.  Ironically, a Dem congress would insulate Trump from the fallout over that.

Dems controlled both chambers of Congress when the Great Recession happened, and it didn’t stop people from blaming GOPers, leading to the 2008 landslide.

[junior chįmp]

I'm feeling notably more cautious in the past couple of weeks:

Senate: 52R/48D (Dems flip AZ and NV, GOP flips MO, WV, and one other Romney/Trump state)
House: 222D/213R (Control undecided until CA finishes counting in mid December, lots of lawsuits but Dems eventually have 218 without the disputed seats)

The House is not happening. You're still too optimistic. The Korea bounce is too strong and it's gonna take a Mueller-inspired fallout to change the numbers to last month's levels or lower. You better start wishing for Korea to fall apart.

No no no....Trump's judges, tax cuts, immigration policies....Korea will save him says increasingly nervous man 190th time this year

Ehhh the tax cuts really could be keeping just enough white college grads in the suburbs on board.  That is worth taking seriously.  

Also, note that while the economy is great today, it will be historically unprecedented if we don't have a recession by the end of 2020.  Ironically, a Dem congress would insulate Trump from the fallout over that.

Bill Clinton had better job creation before getting BTFO in 1994

Nobody cares about the tax cuts and the economy isn't everything.

The GOP lost 75 seats in 1948 despite the fact the unemployment rate was under 4% the entire year leading up to the House elections

[Skill and Chance]

I'm feeling notably more cautious in the past couple of weeks:

Senate: 52R/48D (Dems flip AZ and NV, GOP flips MO, WV, and one other Romney/Trump state)
House: 222D/213R (Control undecided until CA finishes counting in mid December, lots of lawsuits but Dems eventually have 218 without the disputed seats)

The House is not happening. You're still too optimistic. The Korea bounce is too strong and it's gonna take a Mueller-inspired fallout to change the numbers to last month's levels or lower. You better start wishing for Korea to fall apart.

No no no....Trump's judges, tax cuts, immigration policies....Korea will save him says increasingly nervous man 190th time this year

Ehhh the tax cuts really could be keeping just enough white college grads in the suburbs on board.  That is worth taking seriously.  

Also, note that while the economy is great today, it will be historically unprecedented if we don't have a recession by the end of 2020.  Ironically, a Dem congress would insulate Trump from the fallout over that.

Dems controlled both chambers of Congress when the Great Recession happened, and it didn’t stop people from blaming GOPers, leading to the 2008 landslide.

2008 was actually a significant historical underperformance given how bad things were.  It should have been more like D+15-20% at all levels than D+5-10%.  But Obama turned around and did significantly better than the economy would suggest in 2012, so whatever limited Dem performance in 2008 wasn't about him.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'm feeling notably more cautious in the past couple of weeks:

Senate: 52R/48D (Dems flip AZ and NV, GOP flips MO, WV, and one other Romney/Trump state)
House: 222D/213R (Control undecided until CA finishes counting in mid December, lots of lawsuits but Dems eventually have 218 without the disputed seats)

The House is not happening. You're still too optimistic. The Korea bounce is too strong and it's gonna take a Mueller-inspired fallout to change the numbers to last month's levels or lower. You better start wishing for Korea to fall apart.

No no no....Trump's judges, tax cuts, immigration policies....Korea will save him says increasingly nervous man 190th time this year

Ehhh the tax cuts really could be keeping just enough white college grads in the suburbs on board.  That is worth taking seriously.  

Also, note that while the economy is great today, it will be historically unprecedented if we don't have a recession by the end of 2020.  Ironically, a Dem congress would insulate Trump from the fallout over that.

Dems controlled both chambers of Congress when the Great Recession happened, and it didn’t stop people from blaming GOPers, leading to the 2008 landslide.

2008 was actually a significant historical underperformance given how bad things were.  It should have been more like D+15-20% at all levels than D+5-10%.  But Obama turned around and did significantly better than the economy would suggest in 2012, so whatever limited Dem performance in 2008 wasn't about him.

To be fair, Nov 2008 wasn't even the peak of the crisis. The crisis peaked in the summer of 2009. If the election was 6 months later, D's probably would have won the PV by 15%.

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats will control both houses, obviously (not delusional/Republican hack).

I think they will get the message and start talking policy, in which case this would happen, but Trump is very good at setting up other distractions/controversies that benefit him on net.

[Rhenna]

If I had a gun to my head, I'd say.
Dems win House 239-196
GOP nets 1 seat in the Senate. WV, IN, ND, and one of MO, MT, or FL flip to the GOP while AZ, NV, and TN flip to the Democrats.

[Xing]

Senate stays 51-49 (AZ and NV go dem, IN and WI go GOP), Dems pick up maybe 10 seats in the house, if they're lucky.

So Democrats hold MT, ND, MO, WV, and FL and pick up AZ, but somehow can't hold WI!? LOL, and unless Trump's approval rating soars, Republicans won't do that well in the House.

[ShamDam]

Dems take the House with gains around 40 or so, and take the Senate 51-49 (hold everything + NV + AZ.) Could lose one of IN or MO or ND but they've also got good shots in TN and TX to balance it out.

[TarHeelDem]

Dems gain about 45 House seats, forming a majority. They also gain NV/AZ/TN and hold all their Senate seats, taking control of that chamber (52-48).

[Frodo]

Results won't be unlike that of the 1930 midterm election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1930