AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[Jeppe]

In the Emerson poll, Trent Franks has a 24% approval rating and Trump’s own approval rating is only 44%

Tipirneni is very popular in the district, 49/29 favourability. Lesko’s favourability is only 43/45. Immigration, education, and healthcare are all about 1/3 in terms of importance to voters, and Democrats are winning on education and healthcare by strong margins. Tipirneni is a star candidate, it’s too bad national Democrats couldn’t see that until this late into the race.

I just can't with polling. There is no one universe where this poll and the Post/ABC poll are both accurate.

The district is special though. The resigning incumbent is very unpopular and had a weird sex scandal, the Republican candidate is tied to the incumbent and has her own issues with regards to education and her own election finance fraud scandal, while Democrats are running a strong candidate with strong cross-over appeal to Republicans. She’s been running as a moderate, common sense candidate, focusing on social security, healthcare, and education.

Yeah but how do you explain Trump at 44% approval in a district he won by 21? His approval is 40% nationally

Wasn’t Trump’s approval only slight higher in Alabama than in the rest of the country in the special election?

He got 58% of the vote in AZ-08, a 14% decline isn’t that spectacular with turnout differentials and seniors worrying about their healthcare.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

In the Emerson poll, Trent Franks has a 24% approval rating and Trump’s own approval rating is only 44%

Tipirneni is very popular in the district, 49/29 favourability. Lesko’s favourability is only 43/45. Immigration, education, and healthcare are all about 1/3 in terms of importance to voters, and Democrats are winning on education and healthcare by strong margins. Tipirneni is a star candidate, it’s too bad national Democrats couldn’t see that until this late into the race.

I just can't with polling. There is no one universe where this poll and the Post/ABC poll are both accurate.

The district is special though. The resigning incumbent is very unpopular and had a weird sex scandal, the Republican candidate is tied to the incumbent and has her own issues with regards to education and her own election finance fraud scandal, while Democrats are running a strong candidate with strong cross-over appeal to Republicans. She’s been running as a moderate, common sense candidate, focusing on social security, healthcare, and education.

Yeah but how do you explain Trump at 44% approval in a district he won by 21? His approval is 40% nationally

Wasn’t Trump’s approval only slight higher in Alabama than in the rest of the country in the special election?

He got 58% of the vote in AZ-08, a 14% decline isn’t that spectacular with turnout differentials and seniors worrying about their healthcare.

1) Trump's approvals were lower in December
2) For very obvious reasons, the republican being a pedophile reduced republican turnout

[Brittain33]

The numbers are not there for a Democrat to win this district. Whatever poll number Emerson craps out.

That said, the numbers weren't there in PA-18, either, unless you looked at 2008 or earlier.

And yet PA-18 is not as Republican as this district.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Emerson poll sample is +20 Trump in 2016 and 40% republican 35% independent 25% dem

[Nyvin]

Color me skeptical, but I won't be surprised if the Republican wins by double digits here.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Emerson: 46-45 Lesko

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/985870667424911362

I know it's Emerson, but yikes...

Actually it's Tiperneni (sp?) who's ahead by 46-45.

[Tender Branson]

New poll:

Emerson College

45.8% Hiral Tipirneni (D)
45.4% Debbie Lesko (R)
  3.6% Others
  5.3% Undecided

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-az-usc8-pr.pdf

http://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-az-usc8-special.xls

[DrScholl]

I'm not ready to say this one will flip but I do think it will be much closer than expected.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I still think Lesko wins by 8-10% (which would still be a good result for the Democrats).

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Tipinerni voters don't seem to be as excited as they say they are given how old and republican votes have been so far

Also wow, education is important for 1/3 voters. Teacher strikes doing work

[Tender Branson]

It's unlikely that she's winning it, but if she does ... this is going to happen to Republicans in November:

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

mentally moving this from safe R to likely R

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

There are a number of reasons why I doubt this race is as close as that Emerson poll is showing. That being said, I hope they are right.

[_]

Emerson poll probably a little off, but accurate enough imo.

Lean R ---> Tossup

[Gass3268]

RNC dumping more money in here:

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/985933675215949825

[Doimper]

I think it's important to note that the RNC isn't just burning money here - they're building up a ground game and email lists in a state that's going to have a competitive Senate seat (possibly two) and gubernatorial race in November.

[Dr. Arch]

This race couldn't possibly be competitive. Is it really?? If so, Republicans are in deep manure.

[YE]

If these specials are any indication, we could see a bunch of random R+5-15 type of seats flip that no one saw coming.

[Doimper]

This race couldn't possibly be competitive. Is it really?? If so, Republicans are in deep manure.

It should've been apparent that Republicans were in deep manure after ___literally Alabama___ gave a Democrat a majority in a federal race. Welcome to the wave!

[GeorgiaModerate]

This race couldn't possibly be competitive. Is it really?? If so, Republicans are in deep manure.

It should've been apparent that Republicans were in deep manure after ___literally Alabama___ gave a Democrat a majority in a federal race. Welcome to the wave!

[Maximum Atlas pedantry] Jones didn't quite get a majority.  He got 49.97%.

[KingSweden]

I think it's important to note that the RNC isn't just burning money here - they're building up a ground game and email lists in a state that's going to have a competitive Senate seat (possibly two) and gubernatorial race in November.

Oh, good point.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I'm thinking lean R at this point. Lesko will probably win by about 5 or so.

[KingSweden]

I'm thinking lean R at this point. Lesko will probably win by about 5 or so.

A reasonable prediction, and big picture a result I’d be very pleased with

[Brittain33]

I'm not ready to say this one will flip but I do think it will be much closer than expected.

It's still think it's a long way to Tipirneni getting elected.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Like I have been saying this entire time: be cautious about writing off this race. We did the same thing with Doug Jones and Conor Lamb.

I agree that Lesko is probably going to win in the end, but I think it's going to be closer than expected. Either way, the GOP should be panicking right now.