AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'm not getting myself hyped over Harold Supernanny. She is a great candidate, but this district is too ancestrally red for her to come close.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This race is Safe Republican, their is no reason Democrats should waste money here, that would be better spent defending the 10 Trump-Democratic Senate seats, or going on the offensive in the 25 Clinton-Republican House seats.

How much do you think Republicans win by here? I also think this is safe republican, but the margins could be interesting.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This race is Safe Republican, their is no reason Democrats should waste money here, that would be better spent defending the 10 Trump-Democratic Senate seats, or going on the offensive in the 25 Clinton-Republican House seats.

How much do you think Republicans win by here? I also think this is safe republican, but the margins could be interesting.

You’re unlikely to get serious analysis from King Lear, just FYI

Are you telling me I'm not going to get serious, gripping analysis from the guy that predicted +20 Roy Moore, +10 Rick Saccone, and +3 Gillespie?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Only 242 early votes so far, but Democrats are ahead by a single vote so far. Good sign, considering that Republicans have a ridiculous registration advantage in the district, and that independents likely lean towards the Democrat, even in this district.

I don't think this is good data to extrapolate from... it's literally only 242 votes so far. How often are they going to update this?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Yeah, this race isn't going to be close. I think best hope is +8 Lesko, but most likely it ends at +12 Lesko.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It's spelled Harold Supernanny.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Yeah, medical malpractice lawsuits are very common and part (only a small part, tho) of the reason why health care costs as much as it is.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Emerson: 46-45 Lesko

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/985870667424911362

I know it's Emerson, but yikes...

No way this poll is even remotely true

That would require at least 15% of gop voting Tipinerni

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

In the Emerson poll, Trent Franks has a 24% approval rating and Trump’s own approval rating is only 44%

Tipirneni is very popular in the district, 49/29 favourability. Lesko’s favourability is only 43/45. Immigration, education, and healthcare are all about 1/3 in terms of importance to voters, and Democrats are winning on education and healthcare by strong margins. Tipirneni is a star candidate, it’s too bad national Democrats couldn’t see that until this late into the race.

i highly doubt trump only has a 44% approval here.

can you link the poll crosstabs? i bet they way underpolled republicans

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

In the Emerson poll, Trent Franks has a 24% approval rating and Trump’s own approval rating is only 44%

Tipirneni is very popular in the district, 49/29 favourability. Lesko’s favourability is only 43/45. Immigration, education, and healthcare are all about 1/3 in terms of importance to voters, and Democrats are winning on education and healthcare by strong margins. Tipirneni is a star candidate, it’s too bad national Democrats couldn’t see that until this late into the race.

I just can't with polling. There is no one universe where this poll and the Post/ABC poll are both accurate.

The district is special though. The resigning incumbent is very unpopular and had a weird sex scandal, the Republican candidate is tied to the incumbent and has her own issues with regards to education and her own election finance fraud scandal, while Democrats are running a strong candidate with strong cross-over appeal to Republicans. She’s been running as a moderate, common sense candidate, focusing on social security, healthcare, and education.

Yeah but how do you explain Trump at 44% approval in a district he won by 21? His approval is 40% nationally

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

In the Emerson poll, Trent Franks has a 24% approval rating and Trump’s own approval rating is only 44%

Tipirneni is very popular in the district, 49/29 favourability. Lesko’s favourability is only 43/45. Immigration, education, and healthcare are all about 1/3 in terms of importance to voters, and Democrats are winning on education and healthcare by strong margins. Tipirneni is a star candidate, it’s too bad national Democrats couldn’t see that until this late into the race.

I just can't with polling. There is no one universe where this poll and the Post/ABC poll are both accurate.

The district is special though. The resigning incumbent is very unpopular and had a weird sex scandal, the Republican candidate is tied to the incumbent and has her own issues with regards to education and her own election finance fraud scandal, while Democrats are running a strong candidate with strong cross-over appeal to Republicans. She’s been running as a moderate, common sense candidate, focusing on social security, healthcare, and education.

Yeah but how do you explain Trump at 44% approval in a district he won by 21? His approval is 40% nationally

Wasn’t Trump’s approval only slight higher in Alabama than in the rest of the country in the special election?

He got 58% of the vote in AZ-08, a 14% decline isn’t that spectacular with turnout differentials and seniors worrying about their healthcare.

1) Trump's approvals were lower in December
2) For very obvious reasons, the republican being a pedophile reduced republican turnout

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Emerson poll sample is +20 Trump in 2016 and 40% republican 35% independent 25% dem

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Tipinerni voters don't seem to be as excited as they say they are given how old and republican votes have been so far

Also wow, education is important for 1/3 voters. Teacher strikes doing work

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Like I have been saying this entire time: be cautious about writing off this race. We did the same thing with Doug Jones and Conor Lamb.

I agree that Lesko is probably going to win in the end, but I think it's going to be closer than expected. Either way, the GOP should be panicking right now.

Most people realized Lamb could win before election day

The issue is here, the raw data says that the people who have actually voted are 45%+ gop. Until that changes, I can't see Tipinerni losing by 8, let alone even getting close

We have 3 data points, two that show Tipinerni losing by double digits, and one where she is winning, but you are cherrypicking the best stat

Keep in mind that this district voted for the nazi sherriff arpairo, while lamb's district voted for statewide dems even in 2016

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Like I have been saying this entire time: be cautious about writing off this race. We did the same thing with Doug Jones and Conor Lamb.

I agree that Lesko is probably going to win in the end, but I think it's going to be closer than expected. Either way, the GOP should be panicking right now.

Most people realized Lamb could win before election day

The issue is here, the raw data says that the people who have actually voted are 45%+ gop. Until that changes, I can't see Tipinerni losing by 8, let alone even getting close

We have 3 data points, two that show Tipinerni losing by double digits, and one where she is winning, but you are cherrypicking the best stat

Keep in mind that this district voted for the nazi sherriff arpairo, while lamb's district voted for statewide dems even in 2016

I didn't say Tiperneni was going to win, in fact, I didn't give a specific margin of victory for Lesko, I just said it was going to be closer than what all of us expect. And I didn't "cherrypick" any poll on here. I had the Lesko +10 poll in mind while typing my thoughts.

I mean I really don't see how this race will even be close. 49% of the voters who have voted so far are Republican (and 122k votes have been cast so far). This Emerson poll only has 40% of voters being republican.

And only 6% of voters are 18-34.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Like I have been saying this entire time: be cautious about writing off this race. We did the same thing with Doug Jones and Conor Lamb.

I agree that Lesko is probably going to win in the end, but I think it's going to be closer than expected. Either way, the GOP should be panicking right now.

Most people realized Lamb could win before election day

The issue is here, the raw data says that the people who have actually voted are 45%+ gop. Until that changes, I can't see Tipinerni losing by 8, let alone even getting close

We have 3 data points, two that show Tipinerni losing by double digits, and one where she is winning, but you are cherrypicking the best stat

Keep in mind that this district voted for the nazi sherriff arpairo, while lamb's district voted for statewide dems even in 2016

I didn't say Tiperneni was going to win, in fact, I didn't give a specific margin of victory for Lesko, I just said it was going to be closer than what all of us expect. And I didn't "cherrypick" any poll on here. I had the Lesko +10 poll in mind while typing my thoughts.

I mean I really don't see how this race will even be close. 49% of the voters who have voted so far are Republican (and 122k votes have been cast so far). This Emerson poll only has 40% of voters being republican.

And only 6% of voters are 18-34.

The early vote does skew strongly R in this district, though, due to the very high percentage of retirees. 49% R early vote and 40% R overall vote wouldn't be an unrealistic breakdown at all, even if as many as 2/3rds of all votes are cast early.

I don't think Tipirneni will win, but the poll doesn't seem inherently flawed. Congressional polling is hard, though, and I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up being way off.

Do you have 2016 numbers to compare to? Would be interesting & helpful to see

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Tipinerni tied 46-46 among people who already voted? Why are 8% refusing to say who they voted for?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wow, if Hiral wins this, its game over for the GOP. I mean, no matter what the outcome is the GOP is screwed, but a win here would signal at least a 50+ Seat Pickup for the Ds.

She's winning 13% of Republicans. That's enough to pull off a win.

Not when the electorate is 49% republican lmao. Unless you think she wins independents 80-20 and gets every dem

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Slightly Off-Topic, but why did this thread view count shoot up + 2k views within the past 3-4 days?

Never really seen that kind of a % jump that quickly on Atlas, and could be Atlas Posters constantly refreshing, external viewers checking in on what we are all talking about, or hell knows even the FSB and Putin checkin' in on what we're all talking about....

Anyways.... carry on keep calm, but extremely interesting to see all of this outside attention on just the past couple days since a few new polls came out on CD-08.....

I assume people thought of this race as very safe R, but over the past few days as early voters have come trickling in and new polls having been surfaced interest really increased plus the media has been hyping it up lately as well.

oh lordie... not the media. I swear if this race suddenly becomes a "tossup" in the media's eyes and they declare the blue wave dead when Lesko wins by over 5....

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I have to say Nova, looking at those voter turnout numbers in Sun City versus Mirage strong indicates this seat will stay Republican.

I still don't see how this race could possibly be remotely close. +8 Lesko is about the best I can see for democrats here.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I love how LL thinks that the race or the generic ballot have changed. People don't change their minds every 5 seconds. Pretty much every American has had the same view on the race since the beginning. Has LL even ever talked to another person before? He seems to fail to understand how humans think. The race has probably always been +6 Lesko (I think it's +8 Lesko actually).

Seriously it's so bizarre how atlas thinks people actually change their opinions on anything. I feel like Atlas as a whole doesn't talk to people in real life if they think this. Unless there's a big event like the GOP proving they have no idea what they're doing in health care, people mostly believe the same things until something major happens.

Also Emerson is the polling firm that had Moore + 8, so they seem to be a junk polling firm anyways. Idk if the firm Tipi used is good but it had the race at 46-46 with 8% people refusing to say so that's probably junk as well.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why is this race getting so much less attention that ga 6 and pa 18?

Cuz the republican is easily going to win it

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Looks like basically no one is voting on election day. I could see Lesko winning by up to 12, but I'm going to stick with Lesko + 8.

Anything under double digits is a good result for democrats imo. There just really isn't a saving grace for democrats in this district.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wow, there is not a single precinct  turnout tweet in this thread

Total silence by reporters on the ground

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/988857632986288129

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/988858653007527937

Looks like basically no one is voting on election day

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Republicans have averaged 27.5% of indies so far in 2017/18 special elections

Where do you get this information from?