AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)
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Author Topic: AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)  (Read 50873 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #350 on: April 24, 2018, 10:30:22 PM »
Police Report loud partying at Sinema for Senate Headquarters.
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cvparty
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« Reply #351 on: April 24, 2018, 10:31:04 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on April 24, 2018, 10:27:46 PM

It's becoming obvious that Trump is to the Dems/Sunbelt what the 1964 Civil Rights Act was to the GOP/South
meh, with trump the swing's been generally universal
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Nyvin
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« Reply #352 on: April 24, 2018, 10:31:57 PM »
Republicans are literally looking at losing 100+ seats if this result is replicated nationwide in November. 

It doesn't get any better than this,  Lesko is an established state senator running against a nobody, the national party put plenty of money into this race, there's no scandals w/Lesko, and this district is probably in the top 50 most conservative in the country.   

Winning by 5-6% is horrible for them.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #353 on: April 24, 2018, 10:32:12 PM »

How nice to see our dear friend EHarding in Nate Cohn's tweet thread Cheesy
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #354 on: April 24, 2018, 10:34:31 PM »
Anybody know when the election day votes start trickling in?

Anyways, if you look at the statistics tonight was a great night. But it also kind of burns that we were a few hundred votes from having two more state legislative pickups (AD-102 and 107) and we're going to lose by 4ish points in Arizona.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #355 on: April 24, 2018, 10:34:38 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on April 24, 2018, 10:31:57 PM
Republicans are literally looking at losing 100+ seats if this result is replicated nationwide in November. 

It doesn't get any better than this,  Lesko is an established state senator running against a nobody, the national party put plenty of money into this race, there's no scandals w/Lesko, and this district is probably in the top 50 most conservative in the country.   

Winning by 5-6% is horrible for them.

Republican Party declares Ch 11 bankruptcy day after midterms imminent
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #356 on: April 24, 2018, 10:36:03 PM »
Let's go Sinema!!
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #357 on: April 24, 2018, 10:36:07 PM »
Quote from: Cardi B-Inspired Blue Wave on April 24, 2018, 10:33:27 PM
This means nothing. A lot of the Trumpistas sat this one out with such low turnout.
60% of 2016 ain't bad; in fact, turnout will exceed 2014, too.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #358 on: April 24, 2018, 10:36:39 PM »
the Dems did a great job at scamming the GOP to spend $1mil+ in a district that was one by trump by 20+ all just to win by 6.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #359 on: April 24, 2018, 10:38:31 PM »
GOP will be slaughtered in November. Can't wait.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #360 on: April 24, 2018, 10:38:46 PM »
Quote from: PNM on April 24, 2018, 10:36:59 PM
Quote from: Devout Centrist on April 24, 2018, 10:36:07 PM
Quote from: Cardi B-Inspired Blue Wave on April 24, 2018, 10:33:27 PM
This means nothing. A lot of the Trumpistas sat this one out with such low turnout.
60% of 2016 ain't bad; in fact, turnout will exceed 2014, too.

Why are you engaging with Hemorrhoid
Public info for everyone, mainly. Voter turnout's a lot better with VBM
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Xing
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« Reply #361 on: April 24, 2018, 10:39:16 PM »
Quote from: Cardi B-Inspired Blue Wave on April 24, 2018, 10:33:27 PM
This means nothing. A lot of the Trumpistas sat this one out with such low turnout.

And many of them won't show up in November either, since Trump won't be on the ballot.

Anyway, this was even narrower than I thought it would be, and Sinema's gotta be pretty happy right about now.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #362 on: April 24, 2018, 10:40:14 PM »
Quote from: Webnicz on April 24, 2018, 10:36:39 PM
the Dems did a great job at scamming the GOP to spend $1mil+ in a district that was one by trump by 20+ all just to win by 6.

But but....they brought over their best "strategists" and had high level expensive ground game
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #363 on: April 24, 2018, 10:40:33 PM »
Again, does anybody know when the election day vote starts trickling in?
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wjx987
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« Reply #364 on: April 24, 2018, 10:41:40 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 24, 2018, 10:40:33 PM
Again, does anybody know when the election day vote starts trickling in?
NYT says around midnight
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Doimper
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« Reply #365 on: April 24, 2018, 10:42:37 PM »
Quote from: wjx987 on April 24, 2018, 10:41:40 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 24, 2018, 10:40:33 PM
Again, does anybody know when the election day vote starts trickling in?
NYT says around midnight

EST?
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136or142
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« Reply #366 on: April 24, 2018, 10:42:57 PM »

After the initial upload of early ballot results at 8:00 p.m., the Secretary of State does not expect further polling place results for an hour or more. This website will refresh automatically when new results are available from Maricopa County.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #367 on: April 24, 2018, 10:46:49 PM »
HUGE!!

Hiral won around 75% of independents.

This means the ABC15/OH poll that suggested Sinema winning 75% of Independents is accurate. wow.

https://twitter.com/econarnold/status/988985401971949568
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #368 on: April 24, 2018, 10:49:23 PM »
Anyone interested in granular precinct level data, here are a few charts that I posted about lack of Registered Republican EV enthusiasm compared to Registered Dem EV enthusiasm...





Haven't had a chance to go through the EVs precinct by precinct yet, but suspect we'll see significant correlations with swings compared to these charts for anyone that wants to take a peak while we wait for ED numbers to show up in about 10 minutes....
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Cynthia
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« Reply #369 on: April 24, 2018, 10:56:12 PM »
lol this made me so happy
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AtorBoltox
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« Reply #370 on: April 24, 2018, 10:59:05 PM »

Why is the media so desperate to pretend the blue wave isn't real?
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #371 on: April 24, 2018, 11:00:11 PM »
Keep in mind that Joe Arpaio won this district by 5% while losing Maricopa County by double digits. It is a great sign for AZ Dems that Hiral Tipirneni is only doing 1 percent worse against an opponent who isn't damaged like Arpaio is.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #372 on: April 24, 2018, 11:00:59 PM »
Quote from: AtorBoltox on April 24, 2018, 10:59:05 PM

Why is the media so desperate to pretend the blue wave isn't real?

Oh my god. And they have Nate Cohn tweeting about how it's the worst congressional special result for Republicans so far. Get your sh*t together.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #373 on: April 24, 2018, 11:02:29 PM »

He liked one of my tweets once.

I am not known as KingSweden on Twitter.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #374 on: April 24, 2018, 11:04:37 PM »
Quote from: AtorBoltox on April 24, 2018, 10:59:05 PM

Why is the media so desperate to pretend the blue wave isn't real?
Haberman controls their notifications
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